Re: The Chara Question
posted at 6/9/2014 10:19 AM EDT
You mean his value isn't going to go up, right? Because I would say there's no question he's in decline, and that decline was apparent last year. He wasn't nearly as dominant, as unflappable, as unbeatable. Don't get me wrong; he was still dominant and probably the top shut down D in the league, but there were more lapses, more difficulties with the puck. You have to cut him some slack because he played with such a young supporting cast from Christmas on, but he wasn't the same as he was during the Cup run or even pre-Finals last year.
And all that said, I don't know that the Bruins could get enough value out of any deal to make it worth dealing him. Think about the Bobby Ryan or Ilya Kovalchuk deals, or any of the Pronger deals. All of these guys were younger, and there was some pressure on the seller, so it more or less evens out as a comparable.
Ryan was a 1st, a B+ (late first rounder) prospect, and a young roster player who's a 2nd/3rd liner (Silfverberg). Kovalchuck was a 1st and a 2nd, a young roster player (Bergfors El Busto), a prospect (mid second rounder), and a second pairing defenseman. These are two of the top goal-scoring wings in the game being dealt in their primes or even before, and basically, you get an NHL player who isn't even going to be in the same tier of your lineup unless something goes spastically right, plus a prospect who might be depth and more if you're really lucky, plus picks which are notoriously hit or miss. Anaheim got very lucky in having Ottawa falter so badly this year and give up the 10th pick. Winnipeg has basically nothing to show for dealing Kovalchuk other than Sanford and Lipon, the guys they drafted with the picks they got from Chicago for Oduya. I suppose Cormier might eventually be a third liner.
The various Pronger deals are even less encouraging. Edmonton gave up Brewer, Woywitka and Lynch - basically not more than Brewer. Maybe...1/3rd of Pronger's value? Anaheim gave up a bit of a haul in Smid, Lupul, two 1sts and a 2nd. Lupul never panned out in Edmonton, though, and Smid never really developed. Eberle was one of the picks, and Travis Hamonic the second rounder, but the Oilers dealt that pick. The Flyers gave up almost an identical package of Sbisa, Lupul, and two firsts (Etem and John Moore). Again, Lupul didn't exactly bear out until he got to Toronto, and Sbisa isn't exactly lighting up the world in Anaheim. In each case here, though, Edmonton and Anaheim seem to have done well with the picks: both got quality forward though Etem hasn't completely broken through yet (next year with Selanne gone?), and both ended up dealing a pick that produced a quality defenseman for a NY team.
The premise here includes the possiblity of someone on the other side doing something stupid. Say MacT decides they need an anchor for the D and he'll pay whatever it takes - the 3rd overall pick, Eberle, and Nurse. Even then...are the Bruins better now if they make that deal? Probably not. The D is significantly weaker. Are they better in the future? Depends. Can they get Ekblad with the 3rd pick? I mean, the answer is clearly "yes" in three years, provided Eberle doesn't get injured, Nurse develops into a top 4 D and the 3rd pick isn't Hack Zamill.
Long story short: you'll never get enough for Chara to justify moving him.
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