The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fletcher1. Show Fletcher1's posts

    The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    I happen to think that drafting success involves a ton of randomness, and the "skill" of scouting and drafting takes a backseat to many variables and random outcomes.  I think that the 'very good' and 'very bad' drafting teams are going to regress to the mean, and that means Chiarelli is due for the roulette wheel to score some victories for his drafting record.  I also think that he's been better at it than most give him credit for, although the proof is in the pudding...and the pudding is still in the oven.


    Throw out the most recent picks, since we can't possibly analyze them without more info.  Also throw out the first rounders, since Hamilton and Seguin appear to have been 'obvious' picks, Caron is Caron, and the busts are well known.


    Here are the guys, taken later in the draft, over the past 5 years, who will redeem Chiarelli's drafting record.  Sit back and watch. Take it to the bank.  Stone cold locks.  If I'm wrong, Stanley will never post again.


    -Ryan Spooner - He often seems regarded like a 1st round pick, but he was taken in the 2nd round, #45 overall.  In my opinion he has shown he can play in the NHL and could be just the combination speed, hands, and creativity the Bruins will need in coming years.  Sure he's still an NHL virgin on the goal scoring front, but he's been rounding 3rd base at 'Make Out Point' a bunch of times when the cops showed up.  He'll break through.  He's the best player in Providence already, ready to make the jump, and will surpass the expectations you'd have for a #45 pick.


    -Seth Griffith - Looked over by many and taken in the 5th round, #131 overall.  He's stepped into Providence with almost no adjustment period.  He played his way onto the top line and was the 2nd leading scorer on a good AHL team.  At 21 years old, he'll be in the mix for some NHL games this year and could be projected for call-ups.  Not bad for a #131 pick, one year out of junior.


    -Peter Cehlarik - This kid is still only 18 years old.  Good size at 6'2, 200 lbs. and already playing in the top Swedish league against men.  He was selected for the Slovakian world junior team as a youngster and will play in that tournament again this coming year as a leader for the Slovaks.  Drafted in the 3rd round at #90, he's gonna surpass expectations, and the system badly needs some good young talent on the wing.


    -Zane Gothberg - This is exactly the way I'd like to see goalies drafted -- a late 6th round pick for a raw but talented high-school kid at the time.  No real risk or opportunity cost there, and you don't mind the long development path with such a late pick.  He's developing perfectly on track too and turning into a legit high-end goalie prospect.  Last year, as a sophomore at North Dakota, he seized the starting job from senior incumbent Clarke Saunders and had a .926% save percentage and a GAA under 2.00, among the league leaders in the NCAA.  Good size at 6'2, 210 lbs.  Appears that he'll return for his junior year at North Dakota, but would probably be headed to Providence if the Bruins didn't use a first round pick on Subban.  Excellent pick at #165 overall.


    -Justin Florek - I know he might remind people of a Byron Bitz type, but for someone who was taken in the 5th round at #135 overall, has playing some NHL games and has a NHL playoff goal under his belt.  Obviously he's got good size at 6'4, 205 lbs., is a good enough skater to forecheck well, and seems to fit into the Julien mold quite well.  I think he tops out as a 3rd/4th liner, but a late 5th round draft pick being an NHL roster option on a very good team has to be considered a success.  Gives the Bruins cap flexibility as a cheap, but capable, option in the bottom six.


    Honorable mention: Matt Benning.  Don't laugh, I know he was the 'executive's kid' taken on draft day, but he just might be a decent pick at #175 overall in the 6th round.  Great NHL bloodlines, and a history of winning championships in junior with Dubuque in the USHL and in the AJHL before that.  Bigger NCAA guy at 6'0, 205 lbs. and plays strong, rugged defense -- maybe a Kevan Miller type.  Came to Northeastern U. as a freshmen last year and was promptly moved up to the top pairing on the blueline, facing guys like Johnny Gaudreau and the best forwards in the Hockey East every game (and was plus-2 on the season for a mediocre team).  Will have time to get bigger and better at Northeastern and should be a more developed prospect than most when he comes into the system. 


     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jmwalters. Show jmwalters's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    No Oleg? JM sad :(

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fletcher1. Show Fletcher1's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    In response to jmwalters' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    No Oleg? JM sad :(

     [/QUOTE]

    Only cause he wasn't "drafted".  We all know he's the next Chara.  

    Well, the next Boris Valabik at least...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jmwalters. Show jmwalters's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    Ahhh....that's right. Sorry...

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    God I hope they sign Oleg.  Especially if he's as clueless as has been suggested. Endless fun.

     

     

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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jmwalters. Show jmwalters's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    PC would almost be crazy not to....the man, the legend...

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    I'm going to throw Zach Trotman in as well, Fletch. If another defesneman, besides Bartkowski, is traded to free up cap space I hope Trotman gets more than just injury call ups this season.

     

    No love for KoKo ?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    Ok, back on topic.  We all know PC can find star prospects outside of the draft process (Krug, Smith, Oleg), so it only stands to reason that some of his draft picks will eventually come to fruition.  I find it fascinating - and revealing - that there is such a discrepancy between the guys Chiarelli has acquired when they were 21 or so and the guys he drafts at 18.  Tells you a lot about those 3 years in terms of what they mean to a player's potential.

    Spooner - I don't know if this is a "make or break" year for him, but it's a pivotal year.  The Bruins have to fill some roster spots with guys on cheap contracts.  They need those guys to produce.  He's got the longest NHL resume of the guys in Providence, and the best AHL stats as a scorer.  If he can't make a case for himself this year - even if it's because they don't see him on the wing - then he's probably getting leap-frogged for next year as well when it's likely the Bruins lose either Soderberg or Krejci, leaving a C role vacant.  I still think it's 50/50 that Spooner finds a role in Boston, but I think he has a shot to catch on elsewhere if he's traded.

    Griffith - I've posted about him before as a sleeper.  He's a RW, a goalscorer with good instincts and a plus shot, and he's a right-handed shot.  That could mean he's the beneficiary of being a rarer commodity in the current system where there are currently two potential openings for a RW finisher who could make some bones playing with a creative C.

    Cehlarik - Literally know nothing more about this kid than that his name makes me want a Caesar.  No reason to think ill of him, but also no reason to counting the days until he's in the fold.

    Zane Gothberg - This...this is the Steve Balboni (maybe Adam Dunn's a better, more recent example) protocol.  Either a towering HR, or an embarrassing whiff...except with a pick that late, it's hard to say it's a surprising K.  Gothberg is big, athletic, has good stats for the league he's in, and led his team deep - I'd like to see him play, but you have to like his attitude about going back to school with a mission because they didn't win the Frozen Four.  Dream big, kid.  I would agree that, based on what little I've seen, Gothberg could be a great win by playing the long game and letting him develop.  And it would be the kind of late round win that makes you re-think whether PC knows what he's doing or not.  Especially if Spooner and Florek play in the NHL.  That would mean that in 2010, Chiarelli hit with Seguin (durh, duh durh...), Spooner, Florek and Gothberg in one year.  Even if you give him no credit at all for Seguin, that's pretty good.

    Florek - I don't think of him as a Bitz; he seems quicker, a more effective forechecker with more offensive upside.  Hard to find a comparable...PJ?  Or a cross between PJ and DiMaio?  He'll have to play well at both ends for him to have any impact on the way most people perceive Chiarelli's drafting unless (as above) he's another piece in a bigger story.

    Benning - Sort of the same story as Florek. I don't think anyone will change their minds about PC's drafting if he finds a Mark Stuart in the 6th round...unless he's also finding a guy with puck skills in the earlier rounds...or any round.

     

     

     

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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dezaruchi. Show dezaruchi's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    Don't forget Linus. I hear he's actually a solid defender who's also good at moving the puck up the ice. I look forward to seeing how he does as a pro outside of Europe.


    "wow,check out all of the losers in here......"

    -Gerry Dee
     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    Two other points - one SanDog raised, which is that there a few other guys who still seem viable if we're setting the bar where you've set it (no promises of all-star games, but guys getting to the show and contributing in a fashion that justifies their selection).  Trotman and Khokhlachev, but also Camara, Ferlin and O'Gara.  Grizzledchik, too.  And we know you don't like first round goalies, and we know Rask is going nowhere, but....

    Then there's what I would call the Shadow Group:  Chiarelli picks who were/are/will be contributing NHL players, and might still end up being the best evidence that they weren't all smoking something when they made their draft decisions.  Lane MacDermid would have been an NHLer if his head had been in it.  Joe Colborne could do well in Calgary this year after being reunited with Burke.  Michael Hutchinson is going to get a shot at playing a decent number of games in Winnipeg (where is red, anyway?).  And Cody Payne might get a shot to be a banging 4th liner with some small scoring ability. 

    I also really hope they move Caron.  I'm very curious to see what happens if he's in a different uniform.  I suspect more sucking, but you never know.

     

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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    "Grizzledchik, too"

    That just cracked me up big time.

    It's like watching a cooking show and she says don't forget to add the "Grizzledchik", only after the main dish comes to a boil. Then add a sprinkle of "Worseoffsky".... 

    Man I can't wait for the next CHL defenseman, with a funny last last, gets drafted by the Bruins LoL

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fletcher1. Show Fletcher1's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    I only leave Linus off because of the combination of knowing practically nothing about him and the fact that he was a pretty high, pretty recent pick.  As a second rounder, it's hard to give him a positive grade without seeing more.  Cehlarik is borderline too, but if I have to guess at success relative to draft position, I think he looks a like a good return for a 3rd rounder based on what little reviews I've seen, clips, status in the top Swede-league at 18, underage WJC roster selection, size, etc.

    You know, like I said, take it to the bank.  Buy the kid a condo in the North End.

    Too afraid to predict good things for Koko with the threat of defection.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from seobrien. Show seobrien's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    What is the story on Jared Knight? High second rounder, A lot thought he was icing on the cake after Seguin.
    Plagued by hamstring injury 2 seasons ago. Just 19 points in 58 games last year. Already 22 and a bit undersized. Does he have a future or will this fall in the swing and a miss category?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from dezaruchi. Show dezaruchi's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    In response to seobrien's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What is the story on Jared Knight? High second rounder, A lot thought he was icing on the cake after Seguin.
    Plagued by hamstring injury 2 seasons ago. Just 19 points in 58 games last year. Already 22 and a bit undersized. Does he have a future or will this fall in the swing and a miss category?

    [/QUOTE]


    Probably a swing and miss but I think we'll have a more definitive answer after this season. I think it's this year that he steps up his game or he becomes an East Coaster. I'd love to see him at least stay healthy so we can get a better idea of what he's capable of. So far I only know that he's injury prone.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bookboy007. Show Bookboy007's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    I don't know what I think about Knight.  Well, no - I think I would like to see more of the 36 goal scorer of his draft year who seemed less concerned about playing a complete game and more like he just wanted to score goals. 

    Good to remember that the guy has only played 68 AHL games.  His stats won't impress anyone at this stage, but he also hasn't been playing that scorer role buried behind Sweethands, Griffith, and sometimes Florek.  Lindblad, too. Now, part of that is he's got to earn it; Griffith did.  Part of it, though, is that injuries difficultly finding his game make it pretty difficult to get that chance and make the most of it when the competition is fierce.  And that seems to be where they are in Providence.  I like that a lot.

     

     

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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from kelvana33. Show kelvana33's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    I'd say this is the year where the Chiarelli picks get their chance. Lets see how it works out, but after signing Bartkowski today I would imagine someone from the roster is about to be moved.




     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    The craziest quad-hamstring-season-long injury in the history of the AHL.

    What is Knight a baseball player ?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Chowdahkid-. Show Chowdahkid-'s posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    Unless I missed it...................not one mention of Joe Morrow.

    Oops............ not drafted by the B's..................as the criteria of the thread indicates.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jmwalters. Show jmwalters's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    In response to seobrien's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What is the story on Jared Knight? High second rounder, A lot thought he was icing on the cake after Seguin.
    Plagued by hamstring injury 2 seasons ago. Just 19 points in 58 games last year. Already 22 and a bit undersized. Does he have a future or will this fall in the swing and a miss category?

    [/QUOTE]


     He was only a high second rounder because PC went off the grid by picking him there. He was originally slated to be a marginal 2nd round pick or high 3rd rounder.....mostly due to (probably unfairly) his diabetes.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BsLegion. Show BsLegion's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    Yes I hope some of these draft picks amount to something in a few years . Same with some of the recent trade(s) .  His legacy as a Bruin GM will take a hit downwards, even out . He'll still be the GM that brought the cup back to Boston but his draft record among other things can leave a stain for the future.


    Griffith, hard to read, another smallish forward with skills (good shot) along with Spooner , Knight and their most recent draft. Why is PC (or his scouts) so in love with these type of players and then talk about wanting players physical players , Bruin style players ,  in their system ? 


    Peter Cehlarik on the otherhand is what I expect the Bruins to draft, at least his size.  Don't know much but looking forward to seeing him in the WJC.  Hopefully a Toffoli type ?  ; )


     


     


     


     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from BsLegion. Show BsLegion's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    In response to Chowdahkid-'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Unless I missed it...................not one mention of Joe Morrow.

    Oops............ not drafted by the B's..................as the criteria of the thread indicates.

    [/QUOTE]

    you just had to stick that in there .... and Fraser ?

     

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    If an NHL franchise develops a prospect through their farm system I consider the prospect a draft pick. McQuaid and Boychuk are Bruins developed in Providence.

    Morrow would fall into that category. It will be tough with those college defenseman in front of him though.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from seobrien. Show seobrien's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    In response to jmwalters' comment:


    In response to seobrien's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    What is the story on Jared Knight? High second rounder, A lot thought he was icing on the cake after Seguin.
    Plagued by hamstring injury 2 seasons ago. Just 19 points in 58 games last year. Already 22 and a bit undersized. Does he have a future or will this fall in the swing and a miss category?




     He was only a high second rounder because PC went off the grid by picking him there. He was originally slated to be a marginal 2nd round pick or high 3rd rounder.....mostly due to (probably unfairly) his diabetes.


    [/QUOTE]



    On the other side of that coin, there aren't a lot of kids from the '10 draft who were picked after Knight that have seen extended time with the big league clubs (yet), I only see Smith-Pelly, Toffoli, and Bournival. Still some developing D men but maybe it was just a weak draft outside of the obvious first rounders.


    In the big picture, I don't see how anyone can complain even a little about Chia's reign as GM. Core of great players in place. The Holy Grail and a Finals visit. The pipeline isn't dry and the B's have always been in the mix the last 5 years. 27 other teams would switch places with the B's in a heartbeat.


     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Davinator. Show Davinator's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    Good read guys.

    One of the best since Free Agent Frenzy...and no stupid predictions or Chicken Little 'we have to blow up the team' posts.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fletcher1. Show Fletcher1's posts

    Re: The Guys who will Turn Chiarelli's Draft Record Around...

    In response to Bookboy007's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Ok, back on topic.  We all know PC can find star prospects outside of the draft process (Krug, Smith, Oleg), so it only stands to reason that some of his draft picks will eventually come to fruition.  I find it fascinating - and revealing - that there is such a discrepancy between the guys Chiarelli has acquired when they were 21 or so and the guys he drafts at 18.  Tells you a lot about those 3 years in terms of what they mean to a player's potential.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think this ^ speaks to a key point about Chiarelli, and is one of the reasons I tend to shrug at the criticism of his drafting.  

    To me, the GM can have much, much more impact through the development of players in the system, and all of the roster management at the NHL level.  The draft is something different.  Tons of variables and randomness involved in guessing at teenaged talent and relying on the team of scouts that actually watches them play and then tries to articulate their observations into drafting priorities.

    The odds heavily favor an outcome where your favorite players are taken by other teams, and then you have a few minutes to guess at what's left, while scouts talk about nebulous things like character, work ethic, potential, good fit, and whatever.  Then they go back to junior, or college, or Helsinki, and you get to wait for some random coaches to develop your kid.  Maybe you hit the lottery and a few of them become players, while the next GM ends up with a few losers, even though you basically executed the same strategy on draft day and listened to your scouts.  One guy is praised as a draft genius and the other gets fired for failing in the draft.  But if you were to draw both GM's drafting out, for say 30 years, I bet they both regress to the mean and end up in the same place.

    Now, what you do with the guys in your system, player development, and the active roster -- that stuff is the important work where GMs leave their mark.  Along with the trade market, FA market, cap management etc.

    Since the Colborne/Hamill years, PC should be on a predictable uptick.  Over the past 5 years I think he's assembling a lot of guys that will fill roster spots, and the later round drafting might actually be underrated.

     
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