Re: The Shup sweepstakes: What will Tuukka's average cap hit be ?
posted at 7/7/2013 2:04 PM EDT
shupe, I've tried twice to send a well-supported response to your post on Crawford and contracts and twice had it lost to the ether, so forgive me if this isn't as developed.
There are only three goalie contracts that are truly comparable to the deal Rask is rumoured to be signing. DiPietro, Bryz, and Luongo. DiPietro's deal came first. It was the model for the thinking on how to manage in a Cap world. It was a disaster because it was DiPietro and Wang, but I wouldn't use it as a comparable. All Flyer goalie decisions are sui generis and not for use as comparables. Luongo's current deal is actually a pay cut both in terms of his cap hit and his year to year salary from his previous deal - a 4 year job. It's actually the result of him having proven himself over a long period of time. New CBA, new world, and security at the goaltending position for 7 or 8 years, buying basically all of Rask's UFA prime, isn't really the same as any of these previous deals.
Crawford's first year as starter, he played for the Cup champions. And he didn't win a playoff series until this year. They doubted him enough that Emery was brought in to challenge for the top spot. He had never hinted at numbers like this at any point in his career to date - so he's proved nothing "over the long term". He was seen as the Hawks' potential Achilles heel and he answered that bell for the first time in the playoffs. Also, it isn't baseball. When two teams play a series of 1 goal games and the goalies finish the playoffs within .05 of one another in GAA and .005 in terms of s%, one did not "outduel" the other, especially when each of them led in one of those two categories.
Lastly, PK. People are always happy when a guy who holds out is broken and forced to sign for less than he thinks he deserves, especially when he's perceived as cocky and showy rather than steady and reliable. But the comparison to Rask doesn't work. This was PK seeking to go directly from EL to elite contract without a bridge deal. Bergevin held the line unlike so many GMs, including Chiarelli with Seguin. Bridge deals used to be the norm, but that changed very recently. Tuukka has signed two bridge deals including a ridiculously team friendly one after positing a sub-2.00 GAA in his first turn as the starter - $1.25M cap hit! Then he did it again when Thomas's abrupt departure had Chiarelli doing his Ving Rhames in Pulp Fiction (you know the scene I mean). He agreed to take a B level starter's deal to prove he was more than that - an agreement that both he and Chiarelli seem to think he fulfilled.
Letang turned down $7M over 8 years. He is not now, nor will he ever be, that good. Playing with Crosby and Malkin inflates his offensive numbers, and Marchand uses him for squaredancing practice. Shero got fleeced.
Are you not entertained?!?!