Re: Celtics make playoffs's 8th spot go 11-14 down last 25 games.
posted at 2/28/2013 12:11 AM EST
Based on their previous play, the make-up of the roster, their record at home and on the road, the quality of the competition, and the number of games left on the road, it will be difficult to win more than 13 or 14 games (which would leave them 4-5 games over .500).
Trouble is the difference between a fifth seed; a sixth or a sevent; and an eighth seed is vast. If you're an eight seed you're done. Seven (where the Celts are most likely to land) probably gets you New York or Indiana and either way it'd be a tough series to win. Getting a five and looking at a Atlanta or NJ would obviously be preferable, but think as long as they stay out of the eight spot they'd at least have a shot at beating NY or Indiana. On paper they go down to either of those two teams in 6, but there's hope anywayt. They get an eighth seed and play the heat and they are lucky to win one game.
What's also troubling is the team is beyond thin right now and has no depth whatsoever in the front court so even if they get past the first round they'll likely be so beat up that it'll make winning two series very difficult. Think about how comfortable you are with courtney lee or bradley running the point against playoff pressure? Think about Bass and Green playing all the minutes at the 4 and wilcox as your sole back-up at the 5 and how they will do on the boards when everything is squeezed down.
In the the game against Utah Green, Bass, and Wilcox combined for 91 minutes; went 8-22 from the floor; and grabbed a TOTAL of 5 rebounds. Garnett had 7. Utah's power players had 30. Also, though Pierce is obviously the go to guy down the stretch (and Garnett and Terry will take a big shot if they have to), it is not a good thing to have veterans on the downside of the career as your primary perfromers in the clutch. That extra step and legs of younger stars is vital in these spots.
For those who think the latest additions will be of some help in the playoffs, think again. Unproven, playoff inexperienced, medicore, undiscplined talent like jordan crawford, terrence williams, and DJ White do not fare well in playoff situations and will find themselevs exactly where they should be - the bench. This is not vaguely the same thing as acquiring a Sam Cassell or PJ Brown who had real, solid veteran careers and had played in numerous big games. The Celts will enter the playoffs 8 deep with at best 2 legit big men and no point guard.