# Explain Rondo Deterrence

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

In response to MelWitt's comment:

In response to jtkl's comment:

In response to MelWitt's comment:

In response to jtkl's comment:

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Actualy just so we are keeping things real. It was 7-0 they went with out Rondo not 8-0, and that was followed by going 2-4 after that, and 14-17 total after the 7-0 win streak

So basically the Celtics played above their heads without their best pleayer then regressed to the mean(another statistics term don't worry about that. over your head)

Homophobic comment from Rally in 3...2...1

So they regressed to their "average"...that's not really "regressing", it's more like settling out to where they should play based on a fairly good sample size (anything over 50 observations is typically a pretty decent sample to yield dependable results). What would your null hypothesis be for the case where the C's lost, what, 8 in a row with Rondo, then won the next 7 without him...just putting that in statistics terms, of course.....statistical anomaly, and if so, what tests would you run to determine the efficacy of your null hypothesis?... educate me Dr. Stats....

it is if you take it out of context. If I look at Shaq making 8 straight free throws and conclude he is a great free throw shooter then he misses the next 8 he has regressed to the mean.

As the celtics did.

The null hypothesis would of course be the opposite to my Hypothesis which is the loss of Rondo did not really improve play last year and the 15 game stretch really doesn't account for much.

In Statiscs in order to prove your Hypothesis. You have to refute the null hypothesis.

As evidence of that I would use The very similar records with and without Rondo last year (using the entire year)  and point out that their were many winning and losing streaks throughout the year. The evidence would point to a basically streaky team.

50 games is a large sample I supose, but better would be to use Rondo's entire career (if we are focusing on win loss with and without Rondo) We have that data. It is certainly idiotic to use 15 games of data only and cherry picked as Rally did when you have so much more the entire season and career of Rondo to draw upon.

Again using the shaq anaology you wouldn't focus on one streak in the middle of the season where he was hitting his free throws and conclude he is good at that.

Feel educated yet my friend?

Not in the least....too many variable in the entire career sampole, not the least of which would be the cast of characters he played with...maybe a controlling factor could be the creation of some sort of algorithim to take into account for differneces in relative number of minutes played with the lead one way or the other, or number of minutes played with other specific members of the team (ie, Ray, KG and PP, for example)...then of course you'd have to include the entire sample of all games played in that case, which would lead to more reliable results...my question would then be, how would you control for the possible presence of multicollinearity within the actual test? C'mon Dr. Watson, I can play this game all day long....

Nor have you addressed the varibles in the 15 games  e.g. Role of Sullinger and others.  and since the orginal hypothesis is yours. (Celtics better without Rondo look at the 15 games) the burden is on you to account for those varibles if you are going to use that statistic as Rally and your side does.

An algorithim,  could certainly be created to account for the differences of varibles of players etc.. Although modeling that would certainly be a lot of work. of course you wil need to do that if you are to cite the idiotic 8-0 stat again. Because that is the evidence to suport your sides hypothesis.  Ludckyily I'm confident the Celtics have done such and that is why Rondo is still on the team.  But again the orginal hypothesis is yours so that burden is on you.

You can do that, once you create an acceptable Sample size of course which you still haven't addresed nor created.

I can play this game all day too and I'll win it.

Nope...you fail to adequately describe your tests for multicollinearity...it would be extremely critical for reliable results...what, a stats course in school?

Tch, Tch, Tch, nice try....  Since the burden of proof is on you and Rally (You know the side incorrecty citing a stat to support a hypothesis) There is no reason for me to account for multicollinearity. That is your burden.

Unless I  endeavor to statiscally attempt to prove the team is better with Rondo. I have no need of that.

I have not used stats this way. I have pointed out (correctly) that you and Rally are using one stat incorrectly, by citing an 8-0 run without accounting for any varibles( like player minutes and injuries)  and with too small a sample size for your data. I have no need to setup a scientifc test, to win this arguemnt. I need only point out out that your test is unscientifc and therefore invalid. Which it is and therefore negates the 8-0 stat as an accetable stat to use for your hypothesis.

You gave it a good college try though.

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

In response to MelWitt's comment:

Both the 8-0 stat and the 7-0 stat are outliers..neither is indicative of the truth of performance...however, you seem to think you can prove statistically that Rondo is THE  reason the C's have been winning over the period of time he's been on the team...I disagree...I think Rally and myself, and other's , actually, feel that Rondo being out allowed others to play a better game, involved more people to play to their talent levels to a greater degree, incuding  "stars" KG and PP, than when Rondo alone held the ball and tried to "ASSIST"  them to wins...again, only time will tell....but my stats analysis, if done over the entire time Rondo played with the 3 stars, then just the 2 stars, could be done and would give results that would be both statistically significant and would reflect elegant research design...it would be difficult but doable....and I have little doubt that Rondo's role as a significant contrubutor to total team success would be vastly reduced, on an emipiracle basis....

The problem is that both Rally and I , and others, are stating WHAT IS LARGELY A NORMATIVE ARGUMENT..it's a feeling...just like what most of those making the argument FOR Rondo are stating...including YOU as well...it's a feeling based on emotion...you like the guy, and think he's good..or rather, you think he's good, and therefore like the guy......I don't think he's good, and don't believe he's the reason they're winning...I think he's a net negative to team performance ...again, we'll both see this year...if he's even on the team by the time the season ends...

BTW...was I correct..a stats class?... :)

I agree that the 8-0 and 7-0 stats are outliers. However, I disagree I was claiming, that I could statisticlaly prove Rondo helps the team (at least not in this thread) I was arguing against rally's use of the 8-0 stat as proof of Rondo's importance or lack thereof.

I do agree most of us, most of the time, are making Normantive arguments regarding Rondo.

Heck, we may never agree no matter what happens. If Rondo wins another title his detractors might credit the team Ainge puts around him. If  the team falls to new lows Rondo supporters might blame the team ainge puts around him. In truth since Rondo doesn't exist in a vaccum we are both mostly relying on our judgement.

Rondo is a polarizing player of that there is no doubt. Anyway I think it's time to agree to disagree. You don't think he is the player he is made out be and I do.  Nothing wrong with that, it's just sports in the end. We may trade him we may keep him, we both have strong thoughts on what is the right action and since we're spectators we'll just have to wait and see.

on stats. I was a business major for three years, until I switched to something I found more interesting. So I had a few semesters of stats. Forgot a lot of it, but I remeber some of the basics.

Oh and sorry if I got personal with you. I'm a bit of a hothead at times.

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

In response to Mployee8's comment:

It's disceptive to say that Rondo's success is a result of playing with three HOF's. If anything it was more difficult for him to give up his own offense to the detriment of the HOF's. One has to remember that RR's job was to get an aging HOF group easy baskets so they didn't have to work so hard at both ends of the floor. He did what he was challenged to do and now he has to re-invent himself to be a scoring PG that can help young players succeed at their game the same way he helped the veterans. Give the guy his due ... He's succeeded in adjusting his game to what was needed and is in process of doing it all over again. If he succeeds again there will be a boatload of non-believers eating crow. I for one will sit back and watch as I believe he has the willpower to do it again and that''s way he's a leader. If in the meantime some other team makes a Godfather offer that Danny can't ignore, I can accept that as well but I will be patient to see what happens cause Rondo is tough as nails, determined and a champion.

Just what offense did Rondo sacrifice for the HOFers??  Rondo was a project when he came here... yes he earned a ring in 2008 as the least important starter on the team and one that sat some long stretches in the finals..

Rondos offense consisted of layups... thats it... he couldnt hit a jumper or a FT. ITs also common knowledge that the HOFers each sacrificed their normal scoring averages  for the better of the team... so statistically speaking, theyre ppg dropped and you wanna really suggest Rondo sacrificed to help these 3 along??

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

In response to Karllost's comment:

In response to Mployee8's comment:

It's disceptive to say that Rondo's success is a result of playing with three HOF's. If anything it was more difficult for him to give up his own offense to the detriment of the HOF's. One has to remember that RR's job was to get an aging HOF group easy baskets so they didn't have to work so hard at both ends of the floor. He did what he was challenged to do and now he has to re-invent himself to be a scoring PG that can help young players succeed at their game the same way he helped the veterans. Give the guy his due ... He's succeeded in adjusting his game to what was needed and is in process of doing it all over again. If he succeeds again there will be a boatload of non-believers eating crow. I for one will sit back and watch as I believe he has the willpower to do it again and that''s way he's a leader. If in the meantime some other team makes a Godfather offer that Danny can't ignore, I can accept that as well but I will be patient to see what happens cause Rondo is tough as nails, determined and a champion.

Just what offense did Rondo sacrifice for the HOFers??  Rondo was a project when he came here... yes he earned a ring in 2008 as the least important starter on the team and one that sat some long stretches in the finals..

Rondos offense consisted of layups... thats it... he couldnt hit a jumper or a FT. ITs also common knowledge that the HOFers each sacrificed their normal scoring averages  for the better of the team... so statistically speaking, theyre ppg dropped and you wanna really suggest Rondo sacrificed to help these 3 along??

The Rondo brothers are all so dillusional! Watch KO in summer league and you will see a TEAM mentality for real. WOW! A 7-footer who can actually dribble like a 2-3, score, pass, and be a presence at both ends. Closest thing to Dirk that I can think of! Rondo could yield us a quality payer PLUS another solid PG. With a core of Jeff, Sully, KO, and AB.....Gimme a quality BIG/C in return and we are already gonna be too good for the lottery. Interesting times for DA, no doubt. KO IS BETTER THAN MOST WANT TO BELIEVE, and are afraid to admit. KO's skillset is more complete and better than Pau Gasol's RIGHT NOW. Only a matter of time before everybody starts the "Celtics found a cornerstone player" conversations................Thats why DA used 2 twos to move up....nice.

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

In response to Mployee8's comment:

In response to Karllost's comment:

In response to Mployee8's comment:

It's disceptive to say that Rondo's success is a result of playing with three HOF's. If anything it was more difficult for him to give up his own offense to the detriment of the HOF's. One has to remember that RR's job was to get an aging HOF group easy baskets so they didn't have to work so hard at both ends of the floor. He did what he was challenged to do and now he has to re-invent himself to be a scoring PG that can help young players succeed at their game the same way he helped the veterans. Give the guy his due ... He's succeeded in adjusting his game to what was needed and is in process of doing it all over again. If he succeeds again there will be a boatload of non-believers eating crow. I for one will sit back and watch as I believe he has the willpower to do it again and that''s way he's a leader. If in the meantime some other team makes a Godfather offer that Danny can't ignore, I can accept that as well but I will be patient to see what happens cause Rondo is tough as nails, determined and a champion.

Just what offense did Rondo sacrifice for the HOFers??  Rondo was a project when he came here... yes he earned a ring in 2008 as the least important starter on the team and one that sat some long stretches in the finals..

Rondos offense consisted of layups... thats it... he couldnt hit a jumper or a FT. ITs also common knowledge that the HOFers each sacrificed their normal scoring averages  for the better of the team... so statistically speaking, theyre ppg dropped and you wanna really suggest Rondo sacrificed to help these 3 along??

You're talking 7 yrs ago for God sake!

W/o Rondo the last few years KG/Pierce would be on the bench with oxygen masks ... And since they have slowed down in scoring who has gotten his shot together and proved to be a descent free throw/3 pt shooter as well???? Have you checked his shooting stats the last few years as compared to the first few where it was his job to create easy opportunities for the big three. That's why I say he gave up his own scoring stats to the benefit of the team and Big 3.

As I've said before ... why is it that Rondo shows up as a serious contender every year in the All-Star PG Competition where the player must hit his shots or be eliminated?  It's pretty obvious that as long as RR warms up with intent to shoot that he can shoot for a good % but on a team where he was 4th or 5th option he wouldn't take enough shots in a game to find his groove. We've seen that develop over the last few years and maybe he gets even better going forward when he is being relied upon for offense rather than just creating for & feeding the HOF's ...

I know I'm speaking to deaf ears cuz you Anti-Rondo guys got a thorn up your butts that RR is selfish but I think assists was the way the Celtics were measurung him when it came to performance and contracts and he focused on that more than anything else. Times have been changing and RR has changed with it ... give him credit. First he was asked to be just an assist PG, then he was told he needed to score more, then Doc found the team performed best as a fast break team and RR could be asked to change his style yet again for whatever style the coach ends up playing.

RR's been resilent. Plays through injury, adapts to change and is a fierce competitor. Give him his due and let's see how he does with his next challege before pre-ordaining his demise.

What does Rondo getting his shot together have to do with sacrificing his offense for the Big 3? The Big 3 all sacrificed offense for each other and dont start with because of the Big 3's presence, Rondo couldnt find his shooting groove. Fact is he stunk as a shooter...period!

You go on in your fantasy describing hos ROndo showed up in the all star skills competition showing he could shoot....YAAAAAAAAAAAAAWN!!!!  IF anything, youre acknowledging ROndo could shoot just couldnt do it in a game when it mattered... You fail to understand the distinction between a no pressure, for fun shooting to the pressure and scrutiny of a regular season/playogg NBA game.

Did u know Wilt was one of the worse FT shooters in NBA history?? Yet in practice he'd been known to make 30-40 in a row...  Things change when the lights go on... Add pressure and suddenly everything changes,,, There have been many star practice players that never seen more than the bench during real games. Wake up!

Also, where on earth did you leanr Rondo was asked to be just an assist pg??? That seems to be a phrase you made up all by yourself.

Lastly, Im not an anti any player on the Celtics. Ive been a Celtics fan for a long time and root for them no matter what kind of team they have. Im also a realist and prefer to form my opinions of players by watching them play in games.... not listening to the media or pundits or NBA hype.  I observe Rondo and judge accordingly. I want him to do great in Boston, I love when he comes to play and entertains.... I also get full of disgust when he dogs it or purposely is lazy or refuses to play defense etc etc..  Then I will call him out,,, Its just he shows his ugly side so often that im compelled to ridicule him because I want the Celtics to get the most out of him.... but thats never been the case

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

In response to R9R's comment:

I need someone to please explain to me what Rondo impeding the rebuilding process and intentions of our new coach will look like. If you're going to hate our Star player and condemn him to ruining our team, butting heads with Stevens, and forcing Danny to trade him away, tell me how that will show to transpire.

Because right now Danny, Stevens ("there's no bigger fan"), Doc, and our Players (Sully: "We still have Rondo, he's a champion") are saying positive things about Rondo. I've heard positive things from people who've talked with Rondo (Max), his Agent, and from himself. The only negative is comig from rumors and speculation in the meda. Forget the past. Tell me exactly what a Rondo team destruction will look like.

Are you a glutton for punishment?

Facts:

Rondo admits that he is not the easiest guy to coach.

Rondo has a history of disregarding Doc's style of play. He refused to play individual defense on his man to improve his rebounding and steals statistics. The result was a losing team record before he was injured.

Smart coaches handle these issues behind closed doors. However, the available evidence shows that Rondo does what he wants in the regular season, and plays to win in the playoffs. Considering Doc's clashes with Rondo, why would he want to stay for a rebuild, where Rondo is the star player?

As far as the new coach goes, what else is he going to say except that he is a big fan of Rondos?

I guess he could say he thinks Rondo is a spoiled child, but his career with the Celtics, would be the shortest in history.

In Rondo's mind, Rondo knows best. If the coach agrees, they will getalong. If not, Rondo will do what he thinks is best. It is likely that everything will be hearts and flowers during the first regular season, because Rondo is the only remaining star. However, when they fail to make the playoffs, Rondo will be unhappy. It is more likely that Danny will wait until Rondo returns to health, everyone will put lipstick on the pig that is Rondo's personality, and they will trade him.

When he leaves, Danny will say that Rondo wanted to go to contending team, while in private, they will breath a sigh of relief, smile, and pat themselves on the back for making the best of a bad situation.

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

Facts:

Rondo admits that he is not the easiest guy to coach.

Rondo has a history of disregarding Doc's style of play. He refused to play individual defense on his man to improve his rebounding and steals statistics. The result was a losing team record before he was injured.

Smart coaches handle these issues behind closed doors. However, the available evidence shows that Rondo does what he wants in the regular season, and plays to win in the playoffs. Considering Doc's clashes with Rondo, why would he want to stay for a rebuild, where Rondo is the star player?

As far as the new coach goes, what else is he going to say except that he is a big fan of Rondos?

I guess he could say he thinks Rondo is a spoiled child, but his career with the Celtics, would be the shortest in history.

In Rondo's mind, Rondo knows best. If the coach agrees, they will getalong. If not, Rondo will do what he thinks is best. It is likely that everything will be hearts and flowers during the first regular season, because Rondo is the only remaining star. However, when they fail to make the playoffs, Rondo will be unhappy. It is more likely that Danny will wait until Rondo returns to health, everyone will put lipstick on the pig that is Rondo's personality, and they will trade him.

When he leaves, Danny will say that Rondo wanted to go to contending team, while in private, they will breath a sigh of relief, smile, and pat themselves on the back for making the best of a bad situation.

[/QUOTE]

Pud

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

My all time FAV..... Rondo destroying a team singlehandedly!

.... and doc's infamous "ref fouls Rondo" explanation blamed the ref for the 'lil b-b-b-bump by stopping too quickly, drawing R9R's groin into contact with his.... err.... trunk.

TWEEEEEEEET...... FOUL!!!!

Pud

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Re: Explain Rondo Deterrence

In response to jtkl's comment:

Actualy just so we are keeping things real. It was 7-0 they went with out Rondo not 8-0, and that was followed by going 2-4 after that, and 14-17 total after the 7-0 win streak

So basically the Celtics played above their heads without their best pleayer then regressed to the mean(another statistics term don't worry about that. over your head)

Homophobic comment from Rally in 3...2...1

JTKL, Obviously, unlike you, I have an understanding of the implications that immeasurable intagibles like team chemistry, momentum, unity, cohesiveness, etc. have on situations like these. Ok, 0-8 to 7-0 is the actual shift separated by RR's ACL event. Simple math or statistics CANNOT be used to measure the EFFECTS that such intagibles have on your high school? undergraduate level? STATISTICAL RESULTS. These intagibles do not have a fixed value, and as such cannot be realisticaly asigned a value to each individual factor (player and their personality profile) involved in the equation.

What Mel and I, along with several others are doing is using the "EYEBALL TEST" and yes, as Mel said, the resulting "FEELING" to evaluate the reasons for a dramatic change in results. THE ONE CONSTANT that existed in every game of the 0-8 losing streak that was also not a part of the 7-0 win streak was RAJON RONDO. THE PERSONALITY playing STYLE of the TEAM completely changed. How do you quanitfy a change of PERSONALITY AND STYLE with statistics? YOU CAN'T. Intagibles.......Kid, if you spent some time participating in sports at a high level, you would understand that results strongly influenced by HUMAN NATURE cannot be captured accurately by any of your statistical analysis. You would have to perform an individual psychological evaluation on each player, assessed each level of emotional and psychological intangible for each player, assign a tangible value to/for each, and then use the 0-8 to 7-0 streak as your sample size to disprove that RR was not the reason for the shift. YOU JUST CAN'T DO IT! The way you are using your statistics is BULL SHYT.

RRRRRIIIIIIIIINNNNNNGGGGGGGG!!!!! Now then, go play with your test tubes as sports psychology class is over for the day! HA!  In the meantime, start chanting, GONDO, GONDO, GONDO.........

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