Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

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    Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    I know its early, but lets take a look at the greater NBA situation heading into next year and into the 2014 draft:

     

    Sure Thing +500 teams:

    Miami, Indianna, New York, Brooklyn, San Antonio, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis, Denver, Golden State, Minnesota, Houston, Chicago, OKC

    Fighting for 7/8th spot teams:

    Portland, Toronto, Milwakee, Utah, Cleveland, Detroit, Washington, maybe Orlando

    Wildcards:

    Lakers, Dallas, Atlanta

    (any of these three could be lottery or contenders depending on the results of this offseason)

    Sure Thing Lottery Teams:

    Charlotte, Philadelphia, Pheonix, Sacramento, NOLA

     

    So where are we? Can we be a 20 win team? Looking at 2012 season, we need to come in around 30 or less wins to really get in the lottery. I think that realistically with Rondo's injury and a lineup of kids 23 and younger we have a shot at landing between the 5-8th worst team in the NBA.

     
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    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    As constituted, this team is at best a 30 win team.  They have some young talent that needs to be developed, and Rondo won't be Rondo for some time even if he comes back early-ish from rehab.  Jeff Green might be their best player, but Jeff Green is a complementary piece as we're all about to find out next year. 

     
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    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    I think the Bobcats, Sacramento, Suns, and maybe Pelicans are the only BAD teams staying BAD this year. 

    I see Detroit, Toronto, Washington, Cleveland, Portland, Houston, Utah and Orlando getting better.

    I see Philly, Atlanta, Milwakee and probably Dallas & Lakers getting worse.

     

    The bottom line? I think we picked a good year to get worse, since everyone is trying to get better. The best worst case scenerio is one of the top 8 worst records in the league. That will certainly position us for a high impact draft player in 2014.

     

     
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    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio


    1.) Most wins possible: 37-42

    - Rondo is healthy and almost his old self by Thanksgiving, he wants to win and prove he is a superstar, the new coach plays a short rotation of Hump-Olynyk-Bass-Sully-Green-Wallace-Lee-Avery-Crawford-Rondo that max's out its abilities. Team gets 7/8 seed.

    NOT a good situation

    2.) Very mediocre to middle of the road: 29-34 wins

    - Rondo isn't healthy until Christmas, takes some time to get into the flow. The above rotation is expanded to more guys and lots of 'experimenting' happens, no consistency, the new coach plays Melo, Olynyk, Sully, Joseph, Avery and Pressy a lot more mins than they deserve at the expense of Bass, Humphries, Wallace and Lee. At least 1 of those 4 guys is gone by the end of camp and 1-2 more at the deadline. Rondo is not dealt. Team gets pick 6-11, has the lotto luck at a top 3 to hope for but no dice, yet there is star talent anywhere in lotto/top 12 next year.

    Decent and most likely situation

    3.) Bottoming Out: 21-26 wins

    - Rondo is held out under sketchy Rose like circumstances until January, looks very good upon return and is instantly traded at the deadline for (hopefully) another '14 pick, cap space and another 21-25 year old asset. The new coach does the same as in the above situation otherwise, with one more of the Hump/Wallace/Bass Lee veterans dealt until at least 3 or hopefully all 4 are gone by Feb. Team gets a top 5 pick.

    Best situation to rebuild

     
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    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    We lost:

    a) Our best rebounder

    b) Our best defender

    c) Our best scorer

    d) ALl veteran Leadership

    We still have:

    a) No PG until december (?)

    b) No Back up PG

    c) No Coach

    d) No 3 point shooting

    e) No Center

    We added:

    a) Pick 13 in a weak draft (according to experts)

    b) A bunch of overpaid/overrated guys at positions we already have a lot of players (2, 3 & 4)

    Summary:

    If we don't do further moves, we are toast. 30 wins seems unlikely to me.

     
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    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    In response to Gasthoerer's comment:

    We lost:

    a) Our best rebounder

    Sully better per 36 mins than KG

    b) Our best defender

    Avery was a better defender of SG's than KG bigs, Green just as good a Sf defender by end of the year

    c) Our best scorer

    Green was better by the playoffs than Pierce

    d) ALl veteran Leadership

    Rondo, Bass, Green, Lee and Wallace are not leaders?

    We still have:

    a) No PG until december (?)

    b) No Back up PG

    Pressey

    c) No Coach

    d) No 3 point shooting

    e) No Center

    We added:

    a) Pick 13 in a weak draft (according to experts)

    b) A bunch of overpaid guys at positions we already have a lot of players (3 & 4)

    Summary:

    If we don't do further moves, we are toast.



    This team should be tanking and should be bad to get a good pick in a deep draft

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from R9R. Show R9R's posts

    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    In response to rameakap's comment:


    1.) Most wins possible: 37-42

    - Rondo is healthy and almost his old self by Thanksgiving, he wants to win and prove he is a superstar, the new coach plays a short rotation of Hump-Olynyk-Bass-Sully-Green-Wallace-Lee-Avery-Crawford-Rondo that max's out its abilities. Team gets 7/8 seed.

    NOT a good situation

    2.) Very mediocre to middle of the road: 29-34 wins

    - Rondo isn't healthy until Christmas, takes some time to get into the flow. The above rotation is expanded to more guys and lots of 'experimenting' happens, no consistency, the new coach plays Melo, Olynyk, Sully, Joseph, Avery and Pressy a lot more mins than they deserve at the expense of Bass, Humphries, Wallace and Lee. At least 1 of those 4 guys is gone by the end of camp and 1-2 more at the deadline. Rondo is not dealt. Team gets pick 6-11, has the lotto luck at a top 3 to hope for but no dice, yet there is star talent anywhere in lotto/top 12 next year.

    Decent and most likely situation

    3.) Bottoming Out: 21-26 wins

    - Rondo is held out under sketchy Rose like circumstances until January, looks very good upon return and is instantly traded at the deadline for (hopefully) another '14 pick, cap space and another 21-25 year old asset. The new coach does the same as in the above situation otherwise, with one more of the Hump/Wallace/Bass Lee veterans dealt until at least 3 or hopefully all 4 are gone by Feb. Team gets a top 5 pick.

    Best situation to rebuild




    Rame, totally agree. However, I am torn. I like both Rondo and Green and want to keep them both, but at the very least one of them, but ... how awesome would it be to have three first round picks in the most anticipated draft since ... LeBron's?

     

    Lets pretend its the 2008 draft. Our pick is top5, Brooklyns is 25 and we trade Rondo to Detroit and theirs ends up being 16. Pretty reasonable, right?

    We could walk away with: Kevin Love, Roy Hibbert and Nicolas Batum. That would be a big three right there. You'd add an Avery Bradley, Sullinger, Olynyk off the bench, and you still have Jeff Green, plus whatever other assets we have. We go into free agency in 2014 with cap space to sign another 10-12M guy and then we have two firsts in the next two drafts (with an increasing chance of Brooklyns being a near-lottery pick)

     

    The possibilities are endless. If I were Rondo, I'd be doing everything I can this year to show the organization that I am a better cornerstone than Jeff Green because I think one of the two are getting traded for another 2014 pick, and I'm not sure who I want to keep!

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Gasthoerer. Show Gasthoerer's posts

    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    In response to rameakap's comment:

    In response to Gasthoerer's comment:

     

    We lost:

    a) Our best rebounder

    Sully better per 36 mins than KG

    Sully is still injured and has not proven yet, that he has the motor to play major minutes with similiar intensity. On top, the difference at 36 minutes is 0.3 boards per game, not much.

    b) Our best defender

    Avery was a better defender of SG's than KG bigs, Green just as good a Sf defender by end of the year

    KG was clearly the backbone of our defense (not one on one, but as a team defender) and the only vocal guy on D in this team. AB is better defending point guards, than SGs anyway. AB got abused by Felton in the postseason (just cause you mention Greens postseason)

    c) Our best scorer

    Green was better by the playoffs than Pierce

    That was how many games? 5 games, with single coverage from a bad defender? Lets see how this will last, especially when Green is traped/doubled and/or has to bring the ball up like pierce. Lets see if his hot hand from 3-land continues.

    d) ALl veteran Leadership

    Rondo, Bass, Green, Lee and Wallace are not leaders?

    Rondo is still injured, and has not proven anything yet to be a leader. Bass and Lee leaders? Are you kidding me? Lee didn't even play in the most games in the playoffs. Bass was afraid to shoot most of the season, lost his starting spot to a greenhorn and lost is mind regularily on D.  And Wallace? Come on, you can't be serious! Being old doesn't equal veteran leadership. Have you ever seen him? Have you seen last postseason?

    We still have:

    a) No PG until december (?)

    b) No Back up PG

    Pressey Who? That sums it up IMO.

    c) No Coach

    d) No 3 point shooting

    e) No Center

    We added:

    a) Pick 13 in a weak draft (according to experts)

    b) A bunch of overpaid guys at positions we already have a lot of players (3 & 4)

    Summary:

    If we don't do further moves, we are toast.

     



    This team should be tanking and should be bad to get a good pick in a deep draft

    IMO this team doesn't need to tank, this team is just BAD.




     
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    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    In response to rameakap's comment:

    In response to Gasthoerer's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Sully better per 36 mins than KG

     




    I agree - but lets hold final judgement until Sully has consecutive 18 rebound nights in a playoff series (at 37 years old)... fair?

     
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    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    Scott Souza: #Celtics Danny Ainge: have spoken to Rajon Rondo several times, not met w/ him yet. He wants us to sign FAs this year, but not realisticTwitter @scott_souza

     

    Good News! Heck, if the Pelicans are really making moves to get better, that is good news for us. The more 35+ win teams in the west, the better! Especially if the Kings are slated to have a 30 win record anyway.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: Worst Case (Best Case) Scenerio

    In response to R9R's comment:

    In response to rameakap's comment:

     


    1.) Most wins possible: 37-42

    - Rondo is healthy and almost his old self by Thanksgiving, he wants to win and prove he is a superstar, the new coach plays a short rotation of Hump-Olynyk-Bass-Sully-Green-Wallace-Lee-Avery-Crawford-Rondo that max's out its abilities. Team gets 7/8 seed.

    NOT a good situation

    2.) Very mediocre to middle of the road: 29-34 wins

    - Rondo isn't healthy until Christmas, takes some time to get into the flow. The above rotation is expanded to more guys and lots of 'experimenting' happens, no consistency, the new coach plays Melo, Olynyk, Sully, Joseph, Avery and Pressy a lot more mins than they deserve at the expense of Bass, Humphries, Wallace and Lee. At least 1 of those 4 guys is gone by the end of camp and 1-2 more at the deadline. Rondo is not dealt. Team gets pick 6-11, has the lotto luck at a top 3 to hope for but no dice, yet there is star talent anywhere in lotto/top 12 next year.

    Decent and most likely situation

    3.) Bottoming Out: 21-26 wins

    - Rondo is held out under sketchy Rose like circumstances until January, looks very good upon return and is instantly traded at the deadline for (hopefully) another '14 pick, cap space and another 21-25 year old asset. The new coach does the same as in the above situation otherwise, with one more of the Hump/Wallace/Bass Lee veterans dealt until at least 3 or hopefully all 4 are gone by Feb. Team gets a top 5 pick.

    Best situation to rebuild

     




     

    Rame, totally agree. However, I am torn. I like both Rondo and Green and want to keep them both, but at the very least one of them, but ... how awesome would it be to have three first round picks in the most anticipated draft since ... LeBron's?

     

    Lets pretend its the 2008 draft. Our pick is top5, Brooklyns is 25 and we trade Rondo to Detroit and theirs ends up being 16. Pretty reasonable, right?

    We could walk away with: Kevin Love, Roy Hibbert and Nicolas Batum. That would be a big three right there. You'd add an Avery Bradley, Sullinger, Olynyk off the bench, and you still have Jeff Green, plus whatever other assets we have. We go into free agency in 2014 with cap space to sign another 10-12M guy and then we have two firsts in the next two drafts (with an increasing chance of Brooklyns being a near-lottery pick)

     

    The possibilities are endless. If I were Rondo, I'd be doing everything I can this year to show the organization that I am a better cornerstone than Jeff Green because I think one of the two are getting traded for another 2014 pick, and I'm not sure who I want to keep!

     

     



    Agree. I guess the real best case scenario is the C's TRYING to win, but keeping Rondo out a little longer than he has to, landing in that 6-9 range with a fun competitive team fans actually liked watching... then getting lucky in the lotto like the Bulls with Rose and landing Wiggins.

     

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