#1 Defense NE Patriots

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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    I nailed it last year.  This year I say we end up #11 on defense. That's plenty good enough to win it all.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    In response to tcal2-'s comment:

    I nailed it last year.  This year I say we end up #11 on defense. That's plenty good enough to win it all.



    They were ranked 2nd in points last season until Vince went down, they didn't drop that much further until Kelly went down, then Mayo etc...  

    We're returning the same team, improved and deeper in every facet with a substantially better and power running offense, an offense that can score and move the chains.  

    IMO 11 is really low balling it, health provided.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    In response to tcal2-'s comment:

    I nailed it last year.  This year I say we end up #11 on defense. That's plenty good enough to win it all.



    They were ranked 2nd in points last season until Vince went down, they didn't drop that much further until Kelly went down, then Mayo etc...  

    We're returning the same team, improved and deeper in every facet with a substantially better and power running offense, an offense that can score and move the chains.  

    IMO 11 is really low balling it, health provided.



    You gotta account for some ch, it to happen woozy.  11 is a good safe betting number.  Wan't to play over/under using 11 as the starting point for where our defense will finish the regular season.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    In response to tcal2-'s comment:

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    In response to tcal2-'s comment:

    I nailed it last year.  This year I say we end up #11 on defense. That's plenty good enough to win it all.



    They were ranked 2nd in points last season until Vince went down, they didn't drop that much further until Kelly went down, then Mayo etc...  

    We're returning the same team, improved and deeper in every facet with a substantially better and power running offense, an offense that can score and move the chains.  

    IMO 11 is really low balling it, health provided.



    You gotta account for some ch, it to happen woozy.  11 is a good safe betting number.  Wan't to play over/under using 11 as the starting point for where our defense will finish the regular season.




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    I got 100 on the under.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    In response to tcal2-'s comment:

    I got 100 on the under.



    I'll take that action as well...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    Since I can't take 11 I'll go under (10).

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    They're going to be good, really good if they don't incur too many injuries to key players.  Could be top 5, barring catastrophe top 10 for sure.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    Hey look wozzy popped again.

    I think they'll be top 10 but I still feel like the front 7 is too much of a question mark to make claims of being #1 with such certainty.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    I think top 5 as long as injuries don't hit them.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    In response to DougIrwin's comment:

    The nfl needs to adjust how they rank defenses.  It ain't yards allowed.



    I agree but yards allowed certainly is not a meaningless stat as many folks in here tried to convince themselves of the past few years.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    Nothing correlates to wins and losses more then turnovers.

    Bill Belichick

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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    If I had to come up with an effective defensive ranking, I'd ask, on every defensive or offensive play, did the defense improve their chances of victory a whole lot based on yardage gained or lost?

    The top 5% of yardage improvements compared to an NFL average given any down and distance = +5 points),

    a little gain (next 25% = +1 point),

    pretty much broke even (next 40%),

    blew it a little(next 25% = -1 points),

    or blew it a lot  (last 5% = -5 points)  Touchdowns and pick-sixes are so important to a team that they deserve extra points.

    Usually penalties resulting in a first down are automatically above any yardage gain that doesn't involve a first down.  I can think of a rare counterexample:  If your offense started a certain play at first and 20, would you rather get a 5 yard automatic first down penalty or a 19 yard pickup?

    Then I'd modify the sum of these plays versus the other team's relative power rating.  Snookering Jacksonville's offense isn't as meaningful as taking a healthy Peyton Manning to the cleaners. 

    I could automate this system, running off of play by play data from someone's box scores.  One goal is easy statistics collection with meaningful results.

    In general, on first down if an offense gains 1/3 of the distance to the first down marker or less, then they've blown it.  If they gain 1/3 of the distance plus two yards or more, that's usually a success.  Beyond first and 20 yards this formula probably gets sketchy.

    On second down, if an offense gains 1/2 of the distance to the first down marker or less, then they've blown it.  If they gain 1/2 of the distance to the first down marker plus two yards or more, that's generally a success.

    On third down, if they get the first down, that's a success, otherwise it's a failure.  On third down and 20 a success is a real feather in the cap, so that's why I grade each play on the NFL curve.

    We could further break this type of statistic down and say that, for example, the Patriots' offense was just plain murder on second and five situations but they were quite mortal on third and ten situations.

    System weaknesses:  as always, I tend to discount plays at the end of a game when a blowout is in progress. Also, sometimes near the end of the season, certain bad teams lose all of their remaining illusions about reaching the playoffs and so teams tend to give up.  Sometimes the coach starts to play his bench in preparation for next year.  Next, some teams know that their seeding is fixed, and so they rest their starters in week 17.

     
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    Re: #1 Defense NE Patriots

    Top6-8 maybe

     
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