Re: 2011 Draft
posted at 10/17/2010 11:58 AM EDT
In Response to Re: 2011 Draft
You really think that Luck is a top 10!? That surprises me. Mallett and Locker I knew were up there but they had a couple of games that were not up to expectations and thought their stock would drop. But there is a fickle thing about QBs when it comes to the draft. It seems measurables are ranked higher than results which I find curious.
Posted by garytx
One thing is certain. Bad teams who need a QB usually draft them in the first round and QB is the position most often taken #1. The door mats in the NFL right now are clearly BUF, CAR and SF. Jimmy Clausen has the lowest rating of any starting QB at 52.2 but he's a rookie. Does CAR have patience and trust in him to get better? Now look at SF's Alex Smith, a perpetual disappointment. He's got the 7th worst passer rating at 71.6. But he's ahead of Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson and Favre all of whom are better than that. BUF dumped Marc Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing well and has the 6th highest passer rating at 99.9. Still one of these teams, likely SF, will take a QB in the top 3.
Defensively the Bills are by far hurting the most of these three dogs but their defense is still ranked ahead of the Pats. But the Bills have a pretty good secondary. It's their run defense which is worst in the NFL so I'd look for the Bills to draft DL plus they lost Aaron Schobel. CAR is solid against the pass but pretty anemic against the run too plus they lost Peppers. We have their 2nd round pick so they better make their first round pick count. But, CAR could easily go offense too. They are ranked dead last in offense, 31 in passing, 22 in rushing. They could go QB, OL or DL.
My point is of the 3 bad teams, none are likely to take Peterson because they all have bigger needs. So that drops him to #4.
Let's assume of the 1 win teams that DAL and MIN will turn things around enough to finish ahead of OAK. That still leaves year-in and year-out pigs CLE and DET likely to finish near the bottom. Both have fairly decent offenses. CLE could use a WR or QB. It's pretty sad that CLE's #1 receiver is Ben Watson and their #2 receiver is a RB. DET needs help stopping the run and the pass. I could see CLE going with AJ Green and DET with Peterson.
I don't know if there is a clear cut #1 DE/DT type in the draft yet. Of Clayborn, Heyward, Bailey, Ballard, Quinn, Bowers and Crick perhaps only 1 is off the board when we pick. I'm not sure I would go DL with that OAK pick as one of these guys should be there when we use our pick in the 20s. Bowers, if he declares, leads the nation in sacks but he's a 43 end. I'm not sure if he can stand up at the next level.
Defensively we are ranked 29th overall, 28th against the pass, 20th against the run. Getting Bodden and Ty Warren back will help both stats. If Peterson is off the board would we consider Prince Amukamara if we don't like any of the DL types that early? Behind Bodden and McCourty we have nobody. Is there an OLB ranked high enough, Ayers or Beal perhaps?
I could see us going with either of them.
But then again as many know we have to address OL and RB in this draft. History would suggest BB will wait until the 2nd round to pick an OT and I doubt he takes an OG/C type until the 4th if at all. He also doesn't like to draft RBs. I think he will do what he always does and that's bring in a pair of F/A RBs before the draft.