In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:

I haven't made my mind up yet on this Wilkerson kid Mb, lol.  Mayock likes him but Mayock should know better.  Level of Competition alone dictates a 1 round drop. 

At 17 I'm all about getting a safe pick.  I want the player to be in a position of need such as OLB, DE, or OL.  But it has to be a safe pick.  If Watt makes it to 17, we run up there but I would wait to see if he's there at 12.  DAL, WAS and HOU are all threats to take him.  All are 34 teams.  WAS has to get rid of Haynesworth and Watt would make a ton of sense.  One of those teams is taking Prince Amukamara.  WAS could take Jones or Green so HOU is my biggest worry at 11 to take Watt because Wade Phillips is switching to a 34 and Watt fits the bill.  Other than MIA who is set at DE teams between 12-16 are all 43 teams where A. Smith, Kerrigan and even Jordan make better sense than Watt.

If BB stays put and Watt is gone I'm taking best OT or Pouncey.  I just don't see any other options.  I'll look at Kerrigan hard but I don't think BB would take a conversion type this high.  I will also look at Jordan but I don't think he's a good fit at 34 DE yet.  He could grow into it but he'd be another nickel DL rush end.  This is why with all the picks we have, we need to package one of them, 60, 74, or 94 and just go up and get Watt or Jones or someone who can be an impact player. 

I'd even go 28/17 to land Miller.  If you consider we could be picking at 1-5, 2-1, 2-28, 3-10 and 3-28 and we're a freakin 14-2 team, why the heck not?!?!?!  We could be basically picking as a 2-14 team and a 14-2 team if you look at where our picks are.  The only teams that come close are: DEN 1-2, 2-4, 2-14, 3-3 and SD 1-18, 2-18, 2-29, 3-18, 3-25.  We have 1 more pick than Denver in this range and the same picks as SD but ours are better at each spot except the last one.

I want one headliner, Watt or Miller.  With 28 or 33 we move back to get a pair of 2nds and start rebuilding the OL. 

I am surprised there hasn't been more questions about the Justin Houston pick.

Anyway here were my thoughts.

I considered a OT - /> OG conversion type with the pick but figured there were enough to get one at 33 with Danny Watkins, Clint Boling, Ben Ijalana, Carpenter, etc all still available. Without being able to see personal workouts and talk to them its a bit hard to judge then since the film is all of them playing OT anyway and not guard.

I have spend most of my time looking at the DE and DE/OLB type since I am always fascinated by this enigma in the NFL of trying to figure out who and why.

Here are some things I considered in no particular order when choosing Justin Houston over other same position options.

1) SEC - Houston played in the, I guess, what is considered one of the most talented and difficult conferences in college football.

1b) There is some good lineage of Patriots taking DL players from Georgia.

2) His production increased every year so he sems to always and still be getting better.

3) He excelled as both a DE and an OLB.

4) He now has a year of experience under his belt playing as an OLB against very talented athletes.

5) He has extensive experience playing on the side of the defense that he will most likely be here in NE. Sheard did as well but Reed would be moving to the other side. It can make a big difference switching sides sometimes.

6) Reed and Sheard have not had any OLB experience yet and obviously there is no film to watch doing so. Houston has 2 years of film playing DE and 1 full year playing ozlB to watch. Now that film can also just as easily show you he can't or should not be playing OLB but it's something you have that you don't have with the others.

7) I believe Georgia was considered to be in a bit of a rebuilding year on the defensive interior line. Pitts defensive line as a whole was considered one of the better ones from what I read.

8) Justin Houston had no one notable to speak of playing opposite him on the other side of the D. Reed had Elmore and Sheard had Romeus, at least most of the time.

8b) If your interrior D-line doesn't hae any notable players and no opposite bookend at OLB to draw attention and you are the lone "star" player an offense has to game plan to stop and you STILL have a really good season then that means something to me.


9) Sheard had an arrest and don't know enough about it.

10) People were onto and speaking about Houston all along. Reed came on later especially after the combine speed shown.

11) Houston had 19 sacks in 3 yrs while Reed and Sheard had 18 and 19 sacks respectively in 4 yrs. while playing in supposedly the toughest conference.

12) Houston had more tackles for loss in 3 yrs than either Reed or Sheard had in 4yrs again while playing in supposedly the toughest conference.

13) I made an assumption that if Houston played his Sr year his final stats would be even that much more impressive comparatively.

14) They all have relatively the same speed, well Reed and Houston. Sheard is a lil bit behind "overall". Each taking the blue ribbon on a given time trial. However when you combine the explosion part to the speed Houston s very clearly from the others with a much better braod and Vertical jump. When looking back at past successes at the converts in the NFL they not only have similar times in the various drills but also have very good broad and vertical jumps at the same time. (ie. Lamaar Woodley, Clay Mathews, Demacus Ware, etc)


I might be forgetting something but that was what was generally running through my mind at the time.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


We don't need any more "fatties" that can't get up field on third down. We already have a slew of them on the roster and look at our pass rush.

Pick		Team	Player	Position	Posted By
1		Car	Blaine Gabbert	QB	pats7393
2		Den	Patrick Peterson (BPA)	CB	Mbeaulieu07
3		Buf	Marcell Dareus	DT	PChungAllDay25
4		Cin	Cam Newton	QB	Quagmire3
5		Ari	Von Miller	LB	PatsEng
6		Cle	AJ Green	WR	NateSubs
7		SF	Prince Amukamara	CB	KyleCleric
8		Ten	Da’Quan Bowers	DE	Mbeaulieu07
9		Dal	Robert Quinn	OLB	Titletownfan
10		Was	Julio Jones	WR	pats7393
11		Hou	Jimmy Smith	CB	digger0862
12		Min	Nick Fairley	DT	trustbill
13		Det	Anthony Castonzo	OT	faucetman
14		StL	Aldon Smith	DE/OLB	PatsEng
15		Mia	Mark Ingram	HB	Sportslover21
16		Jac	JJ Watt	DE	KyleCleric
17		NE	Muhammad Wilkerson	DE	Pats7393
18		SD	Cameron Jordan	DE	PatsLifer
19		NYG	Smith	OT	MB
20		TB	Ryan Kerrigan	DE/OLB	PatsEng
21		KC	Phil Taylor	NT	Tittletownfan
22		Ind	Mike Pouncey	OG/C	pats7393
23		Phi	Gabe Carimi	OT	trustbill
24		NO	Adrian Clayborn	DE	KyleCleric
25		S	Jake Locker	QB	Mbeaulieu07
26		Bal	Cameron Heyward	DE	Low
27		Atl	Derek Sherrod	OT	Pats_fan_2007
28		NE	Justin Houston	DE/OLB	Low
29		Chi	Corey Liuget	DT	PatsLifer
30		NYJ	Brooks Reed	OLB	pats7393
31		Pit	Brandon Harris	CB	mbeaulieu07
32		GB	Mikel LeShoure	RB	PatsEng

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


BB likes his 34 DE's at or above 300, it's that simple.  If a kid is a big mess and can't move, you don't draft him.  It's no concidence that they're 3 best DL of the past decade (Big Sey, Ty, Vince) were 1st round picks.

A guy that can pressure the pocket is a huge plus, but you also have to realize that the main function of a BB 34 DE is to eat up blockers and control gaps thus freeing up the LB's to make plays.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


Can't knock on Houston, I have him 3rd out of 3 OLBs posible at this point but he's the real thing.  To me he's got the safest floor, I saw him play a lot.  This guy can rush the passer and anyone not happy with him needs to go watch some tape.

I don't know why I preffer Reed, might be too much "Matthews" thing.  Sheard to me is a guy who worked so hard to become a stud that I really think he's that type Patriots guy.  he doesn't give much to Houston on athletic ability. 

IMO from the 3 best fit for day one starter is Houston, biggest headline good production Reed, best long term player Sheard. 

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


Not about been a fattie its about taking on double teams (two 300+ lb men every play), lighter guys usually don't hold up to that and are moved easily.  The worst is when a guy then doesn't command a double because that frees up an OL to take on the LBs.

Now for Jordan, I've read where he's an extremely strong kid.  So could be that he can hold ground because of pure strength. 

Pass rush although can be generated from the 34DE spot, that's the role of the OLBs.  They are the sack getters, the DEs need to command that double so the LBs are free to run to the QB. 

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:



But not on third and long. The main function of the defense then is to get off the field, which they have had little success doing for 3 years.

And considering (Reiss and others have it documented pretty well) that the base 3-4 is used only about 40% of the time, that argument starts to hold less and less water.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


You're not talking about 260 pound ends here. Both Jordan and Watt are a bisquit shy of the magic 300.

Pick		Team	Player	Position	Posted By
1		Car	Blaine Gabbert	QB	pats7393
2		Den	Patrick Peterson (BPA)	CB	Mbeaulieu07
3		Buf	Marcell Dareus	DT	PChungAllDay25
4		Cin	Cam Newton	QB	Quagmire3
5		Ari	Von Miller	LB	PatsEng
6		Cle	AJ Green	WR	NateSubs
7		SF	Prince Amukamara	CB	KyleCleric
8		Ten	Da’Quan Bowers	DE	Mbeaulieu07
*9		Dal	Nick Fairley	DE	Changed
10		Was	Julio Jones	WR	pats7393
*11		Hou	Robert Quinn	DE/OLB	Changed
*12		Min	Jake Locker	QB	Changed
13		Det	Tyron Smith	OT	Changed
14		StL	Aldon Smith	DE/OLB	PatsEng
15		Mia	Mark Ingram	HB	Sportslover21
*16		Jac	Cameron Jordan	DE	Changed
*17		NE	J.J. Watt	DE	Changed
*18		SD	Muhammad Wilkerson	DE	Changed
*19		NYG	Anthony Castonzo	OT	Changed
20		TB	Ryan Kerrigan	DE/OLB	PatsEng
21		KC	Phil Taylor	NT	Tittletownfan
22		Ind	Mike Pouncey	OG/C	pats7393
*23		Phi	Nate Soldier	OT	Changed
24		NO	Adrian Clayborn	DE	KyleCleric
*25		S	Jimmy Smith	CB	Changed
*26		Bal	Brandon Harris	CB	Changed
*27		Atl	Gabe Camiri	OT	Changed
*28		NE	Brooks Reed	DE/OLB	Changed
*29		Chi	Derek Sherrod	OT	Changed
*30		NYJ	Cameron Heyward	DE	Changed
*31		Pit	Martez Wilson	LB	Changed
32		GB	Mikel LeShoure	RB	PatsEng

Now that the final pick is in I thought it would be fun to change a couple picks to where I think players end up.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:



I like the changes its actually where I see those players more likely ending up.Definately the Houston pick of Jimmy Smith needed to be changed along with the Pats taking wilkerson at 17 if they wanted him they could trade down some spots and still get him.J.J Watt seems more like the Pats guy if he is there at 17.And Brooks Reed is probably my favorite player out of the prospects so I definately like that pick I just see his explosiveness and strength really helping out that pass rush.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


You have made Faucetment and MB happy by taking Watt and Reed.  But you have angered the other camp in support of Wilkerson and Houston/Sheard.  We will see who the Pats actually take.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


Faucetman,
 How and why did Von Miller's stock move up to where he is a top 7 pick? I do not think that he is a player that NE would want even at 17. My reason: 

He is

6'3 - 243 lbs, so, would we want him to play OLB in our system?

Ken

This post has been removed.

I think with any pick you have to have reasons why you make the decision. There should be numerous ones that make it a clear decision process.

I always take exception when someone wants to take a position and or player over another and when you ask why they say I just like him better.

An argument should always be able to be made clearly pointing to why the player is a better option.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


I preffer for them to add good weight than biscuit weight.  Like I said Jordan is said to be very strong, so him being 287 might not be a big deal.  Watt is also in that category, now adding weight 13 and 10 lbs might now sound like much but Watt already looks very built, Jordan as well.  Some guys might not carry those extra lbs around and get the same quickness.

I'm for either of those guys but both are not what has been a preference of BB as a 34 DE. 

I think both 1st year would gain playing time as season goes on.  I'll even go this far, if Jordan and Watt are there at 16 (I know I get crazy sometimes) I offer the Jags the 28 and 60th or 74 and take Jordan and Watt at 16 and 17.  Point system, 16 = 1,000 the 28th is 660 and 60 300 that's 960 so Pats might have to throw in a 6th rnd to close the deal.

Now how much would fans scream if you got two of the top 4 DEs in the draft?  At 33 get Reed, Sheard or Houston say it cost the 60th get OL help in the 3rd and 4th in the 5th and 6th get a RB and a development type WR or another OL

So for all those DE freaks
16 (28 and 60 to Jags) Watt DE
17 Jordan DE/Elephant LB
33 Sheard OLB
74 Carpenter OT/OG
92 Moffitt OG/C
4th Rnd Housler TE/WR
5th Tim Barnes C/OG
6th Justin Rogers CB

Jags are rummored to be in the hunt for a QB which makes no sense to take one at 16 for them but at 28 they would have their pick of Luck, Dalton, Ponder, Mallet.  With the 60th they could go after Ballard, Bailey, maybe Acho for their 43 DE type need.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


Lawrence Taylor 6'2 and change 237 pounds

Not saying Von is him but it can be done...

The issue with his stock initially considered maybe lower is that teams payed a lot of attention to him this year so his production was slightly off.

Also it has been said that he too often does not have an all the time motor where if he does not beat his man right away with speed he might not continue with the same effort to fight through the blocks or that he will not chase a player from the back side or past the line of scrimmage.

Ultimately I think people felt they were being overly harsh in over analysis and that his ridiculous speed and calculated explosion numbers make the other things more forgivable.

This is how human nature is. People used to be aggravated by the fair number of drops Moss made at times but then he would make the circus catch and all is forgiven.

Hey guys unbelievable thread!  Thank so much for all the hard work.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


Thanks LA

and regarding the future picks, they can trade at their own risk which is what I heard the league told teams.  you can trade the picks for 2012 but if there's not draft you are SOL I guess.  I'm certain there will be a draft, there's no way players go a full season without a paycheck. Some of these guys live pay check to pay check so they need to get paid, they'll get this done.

This post has been removed.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


Getting of the field on 3rd down is a team issue and not solely tied to the DL.

And as I've stated before, 57% sub-package doesn't = not in a 34, 57% of the time, atleast not from what Reiss has been able to communicate.  It simply means they are not in their base 34 alignment 57% of the time, which would mean nickle/dime, anything.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


Gabbert is that type of QB IMO, he's got all the tools and difference between him and Luck is accuracy and decision making.  Luck doesn't have either of those two in the pocket.  Both move well out of the pocket and have above average arms, Luck having a stronger one but he doesn't take care of the ball because of his decision making. 

I think Gabbert in the interviews I've seen has "it" what ever that is.  He just commands attention, Luck almost has a clausen type personality around him. 

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


Let me know where I can find 10 and 13 pound biscuits.  Once you've done that, please list the sub-300 DL taken by BB before Rd 4 during his time in NE.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


I do like Watt and Reed a lot, but I'm certainly no oppposed to Wilkerson, Sheard or Houston. 

I watched some tape on Sheard earlier and came away very impressed.

In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:


He can have my share of this one lol.