2011 Patriots Draft Options ***THANKS TO ALL WHO CONTRIBUTED!***

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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]Here's the latest on Mike Pouncey from an atricle on Foxsports.com " Mike says he'll be absolutely shocked if he's not drafted by the Cowboys" Wow! As far as trading with the Ex-Broncos HC I'm not sure of the relationship between the two but I doubt BB gives more than he gets in any trade this year,he's in the drivers seat this year and he knows it..
    Posted by sportsbozo1[/QUOTE]

    I think that quote came from Tyron Smith and not Pouncey.

     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : Sorry....#95...Gregg Romeus, DE....this is the pick that makes my mock.....BB will trade up from 95 to get him....he and Darius are the best DE's in the draft and BB will take the chance that he can stay healthy going forward..and yes, Warren is coming back and Pryor and Deaderick are getting better too...but the gambler in BB should go for Romeus hard.....
    Posted by mountainmonkey[/QUOTE]

    mm,
    Romeus is not an option for them at 34 DE, he's about 25-30 pounds too light.  I do like him as an option at 34 OLB in the middle rounds, though.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : mm, Romeus is not an option for them at 34 DE, he's about 25-30 pounds too light.  I do like him as an option at 34 OLB in the middle rounds, though.
    Posted by mbeaulieu07[/QUOTE]

    Agree. He almost has a Jason Taylor type build, and would be an interesting option at 3-4 OLB if he can get healthy. Not saying he has Jason Taylor potential however. I'd take a chance on him in round 4-5 if he is still on the board. Do you think he comes off quicker? He's had 2 major injuries which might push him way down in the draft.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***


    To clarify...Jason Taylor but about 15 lbs heavier.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : Agree. He almost has a Jason Taylor type build, and would be an interesting option at 3-4 OLB if he can get healthy. Not saying he has Jason Taylor potential however. I'd take a chance on him in round 4-5 if he is still on the board. Do you think he comes off quicker? He's had 2 major injuries which might push him way down in the draft.
    Posted by PatsLifer[/QUOTE]

    Rd 4-5 is a safe projection with Rd 3 being his ceiling, IMO.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : eng, re your mock pick 28 (reed)., if it goes down like this at 27 (kerrigan), what is your evaluation of reed vs kerrigan. if you like reed better , why. if not, is the difference not worth trading up a spot or 2 to get the one you rate better? thanks
    Posted by brdbreu[/QUOTE]

    Truthful I think Kerrigan has more upside and can become a 3 down LB. I'm not sure if Reed can become that type of LB but the comparison to Matthews is accurate imo so he can still be a rushing force. I'd rather have Kerrigan but if both Reed and Kerrigan are at 27 I don't see the Pats trading up to get Kerrigan. I think they grab who ever Atl doesn't take
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    I think BB will take a hard look at Mason Foster.  Although he is short, he can play SAM , MIKE and WILL LB Positions.


    Maybe he's our answer at OLB?  I think he'll go fairly quickly in the 2nd.  
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]I think BB will take a hard look at Mason Foster.  Although he is short, he can play SAM , MIKE and WILL LB Positions. http://www.draftcountdown.com/ScoutingReports/OLB/Mason-Foster.php Maybe he's our answer at OLB?  I think he'll go fairly quickly in the 2nd.  
    Posted by Army2LT[/QUOTE]

    A2LT,
    I like Foster a lot, but think he's more of a fit on the inside for them.  Rd 2-3 is where I think he'll go as well.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    mbeaulieu07,

    What do you think about the Pats drafting TE Kyle Rudolph at #33?  Crumpler can't stay around forever and Hernandez doesn't look like a blocking TE.  BB seems to draft TE's more than any other position like he's searching for a certain combo of TE's.  How sick would that be to have 2 TE's of that caliber?
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]mbeaulieu07, What do you think about the Pats drafting TE Kyle Rudolph at #33?  Crumpler can't stay around forever and Hernandez doesn't look like a blocking TE.  BB seems to draft TE's more than any other position like he's searching for a certain combo of TE's.  How sick would that be to have 2 TE's of that caliber?
    Posted by Army2LT[/QUOTE]

    I'd be all for it.  Good size/speed combo, the ability to impact in both the run/pass game, versatile, athletic and great character.  They've also shown an affinity for big dual threat TE's in the past.

    Think about the match up nightmares you create with Gronk, Hernandez and Rudolph on the field at the same time.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    Am I mistaken in thinking that would be a great formation to run against a team like the Jets who love to blitz?  I can't picture any team stopping that offense in the red zone either. 

    It would also help out our running game as well as any weakness along the O-line as well.  
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    Belichick has a clear history of drafting for need with his first pick and really his second pick too.  By need, I mean he is drafting to fill a voided spot or a spot that he knows will be voided within one year.  I'm not talking about voided back-up spots, we're talking starters.

    2010 Devin McCourty - Immediate StarterBIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  No projected starting CB opposite Bodden.
    2009 Patrick Chung - Started 2nd year.  BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  Sanders and Meriweather were the only safeties returning from the 2008 team.  McGowan was signed after the draft.  Sanders was never expected to be a full-time starter.  In fact if you look at the past two years Sanders has started just 14 games out of the 29 in which he dressed.
    2008 Jarrod Mayo - Immediate StarterBIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  2007 was Seau's last full year although he came back for 4 games in 2008 and 7 games in 2009.  2008 was Bruschi's last year.
    2007 Brandon Meriweather - Started 2nd yearBIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  2007 was Harrison's last year.
    2006 Lawrence Maroney -Started 6 games 2nd year, was projected to start after Dillon left at the end of 2006 but started just 14 games in his 4 years.
    2005 Logan Mankins - Immediate Starter.  BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  2004 was Joe Andruzzi's last season.
    2004 Vince Wilfork - Immediate StarterBIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  Ted Washington left after the 2003 season
    2003 Ty Warren - Started 2nd yearBIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  2003 was final year for both Anthony Pleasant and Bobby Hamilton.
    2002 Daniel Graham - Immediate Starter for half the games he dressedBIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  The last year for Rod Rutlidge and Jermaine Wiggins was 2001.  Christian Fauria was signed before the draft but he was not known for blocking.
    2001 Richard Seymour - Immediate Starter

    So what can we learn from this?  The big holes on the roster are clearly OT and OG based on the status of Light and Mankins.  Looking after 2011, Koppen and Connolly become free agents.  Kaczur's value has deteriorated given his back and salary.  So, there is only one projected starter on the OL past 2011 (Vollmer).  BUT, and this is a big BUT; BB doesn't typically draft OL in the first round.  The only year he did it (Mankins) was when he didn't have a 2nd rounder and had a starting OG leaving (Andruzzi).  I expect BB will load up with OL talent in the 2nd and 3rd round.

    About 80% of people posting on here want to address Defense first either DL or OLB.  In terms of roster stability, DL is pretty stable with the return of Warren with 8 key players signed at least through 2012.  As for OLB, Banta-Cain and Cunningham are signed through at least 2012 with Ninkovich set to become a free agent after 2011. 

    Most posters here cite the lack of pass rush as their #1 reason for addressing DL and OLB.  However, the Pats were 14th in the NFL with 36 sacks last year.  7 of the teams ahead of them in sacks failed to make the play-offs.  35 of the 36 sacks came from the front 7.  Besides getting pressure on the QB, stopping the run is the other key goal of the front 7.  The Pats were 11th against the rush with 5 non play-off teams finishing ahead of them. 

    Guys, the weakness of our defense isn't the front 7.  It is the secondary.  The Pats were 30th against the pass.  Teams beat us by passing much more often than running.  I don't care that we sent two DBs to the Pro Bowl, we couldn't stop the 2nd and 3rd WR last year.  Getting Bodden back will be a huge help as will getting Warren back.

    If there is going to be a big surprise in this draft it will be trading up to get Amukamara.  If he's there at 10, I would not be shocked to see us trading up with WAS for him.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : I'd be all for it.  Good size/speed combo, the ability to impact in both the run/pass game, versatile, athletic and great character.  They've also shown an affinity for big dual threat TE's in the past. Think about the match up nightmares you create with Gronk, Hernandez and Rudolph on the field at the same time.
    Posted by mbeaulieu07[/QUOTE]
    That would mean cutting Crumpler.  BB is not going to carry 4 TEs on the roster especially now when the idea of an 18 game season seems dead.  He will give Crump one final year then address his replacement in 2012 or draft a TE later on that he can put on the PS.  I just don't think taking a TE high makes sense given the uncertainty on the OL.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    Again, if we look at what killed us last year it was our secondary.  Our opponents knew this and exploited us passing the ball last year.  If you look at what our key AFC East rivals have been doing lately it is acquiring big time WRs to exploit our secondary; Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, etc. 

    If we look at our 2011 schedule we see many of the familiar suspects like the Colts, Chargers and Steelers.

    Home: Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Chiefs, Chargers, Colts, Cowboys, Giants

    Away: Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Broncos, Raiders, Steelers, Eagles, Redskins

    Where did the teams in blue rank in passing the ball in 2010?

    #1 IND
    #2 SD
    #6 DAL
    #7 DEN
    #8 WAS (although they have to QB or WR at the moment)
    #9 PHI
    #10 NYG
    #14 PIT
    #16 MIA (2X)

    10 of our 16 games are against teams that finished in the top half of the league passing the ball last year.

    Is getting Bodden back enough to correct the secondary?  That is the only question I have.  Chung can't cover, that's his weakness.  But this is a weak class for safeties yet I wouldn't be shocked if we took a safety or converted CB who can cover.

     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]Belichick has a clear history of drafting for need with his first pick and really his second pick too.  By need, I mean he is drafting to fill a voided spot or a spot that he knows will be voided within one year.  I'm not talking about voided back-up spots, we're talking starters. 2010 Devin McCourty - Immediate Starter .  BIG HOLE ON ROSTER .  No projected starting CB opposite Bodden. 2009 Patrick Chung - Started 2nd year.   BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  Sanders and Meriweather were the only safeties returning from the 2008 team.  McGowan was signed after the draft.  Sanders was never expected to be a full-time starter.  In fact if you look at the past two years Sanders has started just 14 games out of the 29 in which he dressed. 2008 Jarrod Mayo - Immediate Starter .  BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  2007 was Seau's last full year although he came back for 4 games in 2008 and 7 games in 2009.  2008 was Bruschi's last year. 2007 Brandon Meriweather - Started 2nd year .  BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  2007 was Harrison's last year. 2006 Lawrence Maroney - Started 6 games 2nd year , was projected to start after Dillon left at the end of 2006 but started just 14 games in his 4 years. 2005 Logan Mankins - Immediate Starter.   BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  2004 was Joe Andruzzi's last season. 2004 Vince Wilfork - Immediate Starter .  BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  Ted Washington left after the 2003 season 2003 Ty Warren - Started 2nd year .  BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  2003 was final year for both Anthony Pleasant and Bobby Hamilton. 2002 Daniel Graham - Immediate Starter for half the games he dressed .  BIG HOLE ON ROSTER.  The last year for Rod Rutlidge and Jermaine Wiggins was 2001.  Christian Fauria was signed before the draft but he was not known for blocking. 2001 Richard Seymour - Immediate Starter .  So what can we learn from this?  The big holes on the roster are clearly OT and OG based on the status of Light and Mankins.  Looking after 2011, Koppen and Connolly become free agents.  Kaczur's value has deteriorated given his back and salary.  So, there is only one projected starter on the OL past 2011 (Vollmer).  BUT , and this is a big BUT ; BB doesn't typically draft OL in the first round.  The only year he did it (Mankins) was when he didn't have a 2nd rounder and had a starting OG leaving (Andruzzi).  I expect BB will load up with OL talent in the 2nd and 3rd round. About 80% of people posting on here want to address Defense first either DL or OLB.  In terms of roster stability, DL is pretty stable with the return of Warren with 8 key players signed at least through 2012.  As for OLB, Banta-Cain and Cunningham are signed through at least 2012 with Ninkovich set to become a free agent after 2011.  Most posters here cite the lack of pass rush as their #1 reason for addressing DL and OLB.  However, the Pats were 14th in the NFL with 36 sacks last year.  7 of the teams ahead of them in sacks failed to make the play-offs.  35 of the 36 sacks came from the front 7.  Besides getting pressure on the QB, stopping the run is the other key goal of the front 7.  The Pats were 11th against the rush with 5 non play-off teams finishing ahead of them.  Guys, the weakness of our defense isn't the front 7.  It is the secondary.  The Pats were 30th against the pass.  Teams beat us by passing much more often than running.  I don't care that we sent two DBs to the Pro Bowl, we couldn't stop the 2nd and 3rd WR last year.  Getting Bodden back will be a huge help as will getting Warren back. If there is going to be a big surprise in this draft it will be trading up to get Amukamara.  If he's there at 10, I would not be shocked to see us trading up with WAS for him.
    Posted by Faucetman[/QUOTE]


    I guess the idea would be to go after other positions if DT, DE, and OT are so deep.  I do like the idea of trading up for the two top CB's or two top WR's.  The talent drops quickly after they are gone.

     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]...Most posters here cite the lack of pass rush as their #1 reason for addressing DL and OLB.  However, the Pats were 14th in the NFL with 36 sacks last year.  7 of the teams ahead of them in sacks failed to make the play-offs.  35 of the 36 sacks came from the front 7.  Besides getting pressure on the QB, stopping the run is the other key goal of the front 7.  The Pats were 11th against the rush with 5 non play-off teams finishing ahead of them.  Guys, the weakness of our defense isn't the front 7.  It is the secondary.  The Pats were 30th against the pass.  Teams beat us by passing much more often than running.  I don't care that we sent two DBs to the Pro Bowl, we couldn't stop the 2nd and 3rd WR last year.  Getting Bodden back will be a huge help as will getting Warren back. If there is going to be a big surprise in this draft it will be trading up to get Amukamara.  If he's there at 10, I would not be shocked to see us trading up with WAS for him.
    Posted by Faucetman[/QUOTE]

    Faucet,

    This is great stuff you bring up. I do agree that the more pressing need is OL. It just is not apparent from how they played last year. Yet, it is important to anticipate what the issues of the next season are, not last year's. I have said it before here, I would not mind picking up Carimi at 17.

    That said, I think the front 7 needs work. Here are the TLOSS numbers over the last 10 years.
    2001 - 95
    2002 - 71
    2003 - 82
    2004 - 77
    2005 - 83
    2006 - 80
    2007 - 77
    2008 - 38
    2009 - 34
    2010 - 35

    There is something since 2007 that has kept them from getting to the opponent's backfield as often. That's a dramatic drop. There may have been a philosophical change, but I bet front 7 talent has something to do with it.


     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : I think that quote came from Tyron Smith and not Pouncey.
    Posted by Army2LT[/QUOTE]No it was clearly marked as a quote from Mike Pouncey.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : No it was clearly marked as a quote from Mike Pouncey.
    Posted by sportsbozo1[/QUOTE]

    My mistake sportsbozo, it looks like they did promise Pouncey.  But it could be a smokescreen.





     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    Did anyone catch this article?  It says this draft could see a record number of QB's taken in the 1st.  That is great news for the Pats who A. Don't need one and B. Could cash in on a team looking to overpay in order to move up.



     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    Funny as it may sound I think the Patriots were hoping that one of the two kids Stanzi or McElroy would be available late,but if there's a run on QB's the Patriots will benefit via the trade route or the players who fall to them at other positions.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]Again, if we look at what killed us last year it was our secondary.  Our opponents knew this and exploited us passing the ball last year.  If you look at what our key AFC East rivals have been doing lately it is acquiring big time WRs to exploit our secondary; Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, etc.  ..
    Posted by Faucetman[/QUOTE]

    Someone here posted an article that said oposing QBs had about 5 seconds to throw (I can't remember if that was in the playoffs). I am sure it is not on some plays. Maybe they were on theird and lon situations. Regardless, the opposing QB should never have that much time. That is 2 secs longer than what a good front 7 would give up. That is a solid data point that clearly says front 7 is more of an issue than the secondary.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : Faucet, This is great stuff you bring up. I do agree that the more pressing need is OL. It just is not apparent from how they played last year. Yet, it is important to anticipate what the issues of the next season are, not last year's. I have said it before here, I would not mind picking up Carimi at 17. That said, I think the front 7 needs work. Here are the TLOSS numbers over the last 10 years. 2001 - 95 2002 - 71 2003 - 82 2004 - 77 2005 - 83 2006 - 80 2007 - 77 2008 - 38 2009 - 34 2010 - 35 There is something since 2007 that has kept them from getting to the opponent's backfield as often. That's a dramatic drop. There may have been a philosophical change, but I bet front 7 talent has something to do with it.
    Posted by seattlepat70[/QUOTE]
    This is a very interesting stat.  I agree there were not nearly enough negative plays behind the LOS.  But I don't think it is as important as rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed.  Let's look at some other interesting Defensive ranks for the Pats front 7.

    10 rushing TDs allowed which was 10th best in the NFL.  
    1,728 yards on the ground allowed, 11th best.
    9 forced fumbles, 8th best.
    6 runs of 20+ yards, 3rd best.
    0 runs of 40+, tied best.
    36 yards was longest running play allowed, 4th best.
    25.6 rushing plays attempted per game, 12th best.

    99 1st downs on the ground which was 11th worst.  
    1st downs allowed on 24.2% of running plays, 4th worst. 

    As bad as the secondary was in giving up yards, it was first in the NFL in INTs with 25 in 2010.  But does this mean we had a good secondary?  We also gave up 25 TDs in the passing game, 10th worst.  Teams averaged 21.8 first downs per game against us, 3rd worst, worst than Bills, Cardinals, Broncos and Panthers.  The Pats gave up a first down on 3rd down an NFL worst 47% of the time.  The Pats surrendered 12 first downs on 4th down attempts 2nd most.  Teams converted 60% of the time on 4th down, 8th worst %.

    The Pats D had 1,065 plays ran against them, 6th most.  The Pats lost the time of possession battle too, 31:25, 10th worst.

    Clearly, the D as a whole needs to improve.  Getting Bodden and Warren back can only help.  The D is extremely young so an extra year can only help.  If the Pats can get JJ Watt or Cam Jordan, they should.  If they can trade up for Amukamara, that would give us a very solid secondary.  But the weakest position on D as I see it is OLB.  Would BB take a conversion type in the first round?  I have my doubts based on history.

    The OL is the most pressing need but BB is most likely to go Defense with our first pick then he should go OL with at least two picks between 33-74.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    I am actually wondering if the 2001-2007 numbers are correct (they are from espn). 70-80 tackles for loss in 16 games is equivalent to 5 tackles for loss per game on average. Who would not be afraid of facing a D like that?

    Going back to your analysis...
    I appreciate the data you bring up. However, to me, the key question is whether the opposing QB is having too much time to find an open receiver. Even the best secondary unit will accumulate bad stats on TDs and first downs given up if the front seven keeps giving the opposing QB more than 4 seconds to find the seams.

    On the other hand, while there are some stats supporting the notion that the run D is pretty decent, to me, the question is how they stop the run. There is more than one way to do that. You could try to stop them at the LoS. Some teams try to neutralize good running offenses by getting to the RB in the backfield before he gains his momentum.

    What it looks like to me is that the 2001-2007 defenses excelled at getting to the the opposing backfield so it did not matter whether it was a passing team or a running team they were playing. Either way, they ahd guys who got there close enough to get to the QB if the QB had the ball or the RB if the RB had the ball.

    Question is how you bring back that capability. If you believe you need extra speed at DE, then you go Watt. If you think you need to overpower, then you go with Taylor, giving you the flex to move him or VW at DE.


     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK*** : This is a very interesting stat.  I agree there were not nearly enough negative plays behind the LOS.  But I don't think it is as important as rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed.  Let's look at some other interesting Defensive ranks for the Pats front 7. 10 rushing TDs allowed which was 10th best in the NFL.   1,728 yards on the ground allowed, 11th best. 9 forced fumbles, 8th best. 6 runs of 20+ yards, 3rd best. 0 runs of 40+, tied best. 36 yards was longest running play allowed, 4th best. 25.6 rushing plays attempted per game, 12th best. 99 1st downs on the ground which was 11th worst.   1st downs allowed on 24.2% of running plays, 4th worst.  As bad as the secondary was in giving up yards, it was first in the NFL in INTs with 25 in 2010.  But does this mean we had a good secondary?  We also gave up 25 TDs in the passing game, 10th worst.  Teams averaged 21.8 first downs per game against us, 3rd worst, worst than Bills, Cardinals, Broncos and Panthers.  The Pats gave up a first down on 3rd down an NFL worst 47% of the time.  The Pats surrendered 12 first downs on 4th down attempts 2nd most.  Teams converted 60% of the time on 4th down, 8th worst %. The Pats D had 1,065 plays ran against them, 6th most.  The Pats lost the time of possession battle too, 31:25, 10th worst. Clearly, the D as a whole needs to improve.  Getting Bodden and Warren back can only help.  The D is extremely young so an extra year can only help.  If the Pats can get JJ Watt or Cam Jordan, they should.  If they can trade up for Amukamara, that would give us a very solid secondary.  But the weakest position on D as I see it is OLB.  Would BB take a conversion type in the first round?  I have my doubts based on history. The OL is the most pressing need but BB is most likely to go Defense with our first pick then he should go OL with at least two picks between 33-74.
    Posted by Faucetman[/QUOTE]


    I am sure the numbers are down post 2007 somewhat as it naturally correlates to the defense turning over and losing not just veterans but players who were also proven winners.

    It is no mistake or fluke that Seau could come in off the street and diagnose a play and shoot the gap and nab the back in the backfield. He certainly is a lot slower than guyton or mayo at the age he was but just a better player.

    Also, unfortunately, when looking at stats like you laid out here it becomes completely subjective in how you look at them. Meaning, as you already know, a team might end up higher on a list against the run if their opponents don't bother running on them because they can throw on them all day long and vice versa.

    I am not saying that's the case with the Pats. The Pats have been notorious the past few years during this transition of being stout on 1st and 2nd downs and then giving up 3rd and longs. That's twice as maddening since that's exactly where they want to have their opponent in a lower percentage play to attempt to execute.

    Also any view of the Pats run defense stats last season must be met with a slightly jaded view as last year the position of choice for Mr injury bug was the DL.

    One more thing to also keep in mind is that the league has changed and the rules have changed and even BB's defense has augmented some so I do not think you can expect all statistical numbers to stay equal or closely identical for more than a decade.

    The league is becoming more and more of a passing league and as such the value of running backs if waning as evidenced by this years pre draft running back values on mock boards.

    Unless you get a sack you aren't going to be getting a TFL on those plays and if teams are passing more than running you have fewer opportunities for the types of plays were you even have the possibility for TFL's.

    It would be more telling and interesting to see the numbers and trends league wide to know if it was systemic or stricly Patriots related. I would hope and suspect a bit of both.
     
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    Re: 2011 Patriots Draft Options ***UPDATED 2/19 w/ PRE-COMBINE MOCK***

    Low,

    I did a quick look at NYJ and BAL and they both show a drop. However, NWE's drop has been most dramatic.

    NYJ
    2010 - 41
    2009 - 53
    2008 - 39
    2007 - 57
    2006 - 67

    BAL
    2010 - 38
    2009 - 60
    2008 - 53
    2007 - 86
    2006 - 107
     

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