***2012 Patriots Draft Thread***! THANKS TO ALL WHO PARTICIPATED!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Pats7393. Show Pats7393's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

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    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : PE, Ioka was 222 at the SB.
    Posted by mbeaulieu07


    What do you think about Stephon Gilmore or Trumaine Johnson at S?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Pats7393. Show Pats7393's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

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    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : I don't think those draft chart values are valid anymore. They were made back when salaries were out of hand for top 20 players. But, even if they could get that trade, I'm not making for a CB, no matter who it is. To many DB's have failed in this system recently and I wouldn't want to take one that early and risk another failure. If I'm moving up that high it's for a legit edge rusher (Ingram, Upshaw) or a line presence (Still, Brockers on D side DeCastro on the O side). Much less risk of failure with those positions and imo a higher pay off to the team as a whole. But, I'm also in the camp that thinks both sides of the ball start on the lines then ripples out. A top end line on either side is much more effective then perimeter players
    Posted by PatsEng


    I agree those other guys are safer but I think they might be gone by 13.  I'm not high on Brockers, I might be that dumb lol  I agree point system is out the window but needed a base line I guess.  

    I think Jenkins a kid that started day 1 in the SEC and dominated will turn into a shutdown guy.  Now we saw what Revis didn't do (dominate) without a pass rush so I'm torn there.  So kind of torn, get a very good CB move DM to safety and improve those two spots or get a front 7 guy.

    I think I still go with the CB, in FA get the 34 DE.  Still can get Curry in the 2nd with Nink, Anderson, Carter and Curry I think they can get that pass rush and get a good rotation. 
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : I don't think an OG is out of the question.  I like Zeitler, as do you, however assuming they wait until Rd 3 and beyond, I like Joe Looney (6-4 315 Wake Forest .  Love the last name, haha... kid has good size, decent athleticism and quicks, is versatile, plays tough/competitive, and is said to be a vocal player with solid character.
    Posted by mbeaulieu07


    I keep bringing up Phillip Blake, he has played RT, OG and OC.  Strong base, has a nasty punch.  He will be 26 so is that a real concern?  He can play for another 8 years, that's not bad for a 4th rndr
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : What do you think about Stephon Gilmore or Trumaine Johnson at S?
    Posted by Pats7393


    I think Gilmore could play S at the NFL level, based on his size, movement ability, instincts and ability to tackle... I also think that he projects as a starting calibur CB with both Zone/Press ability so that's where I think he'll be drafted to play.  Johnson is a kid that I need to research further.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : I keep bringing up Phillip Blake, he has played RT, OG and OC.  Strong base, has a nasty punch.  He will be 26 so is that a real concern?  He can play for another 8 years, that's not bad for a 4th rndr
    Posted by Pats7393


    I think you'd ideally like a younger kid (Baylor loves them some 26 y/o O-lineman, ha) but if a kid can play, a team will draft him (Watkins went 23rd overal last season).  I also think the risk is reduced the later you get him in the draft.  He's prob an interior OL only at the NFL level (due to his height which is a shade under 6-3), but could represent a good mid-round value.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrustBill. Show TrustBill's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Have the board discussed Juron Criner?  Man, he is good.  Cry for Criner.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onSTDBS38W8
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Interesting report from rotoworld:

    "

    According to SI.com draft analyst Tony Pauline, Boise State S George Iloka is currently "the top free safety on draft boards around the league."

    Alabama's Mark Barron and Notre Dame's Harrison Smith are considered strong safeties. Iloka is an imposing free safety prospect at 6-foot-4, 222 with a sub-4.5 forty on record. Pauline expects Iloka to be an early second-round pick if he runs well and does 25 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press, as expected. Iloka could be a tight end-buster kind of safety with the ability to defend athletic TEs like Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez.

    "

    They are also reporting that Shanahan absolutely loves Weeden and wants to trade back into the 20's to get him or trade back up into the 20's.

    Provided Brockers, Still, and Konz is gone by #27 would you be willing to trade #27 to Shanahan along with the 3rd for #39 and a 1st next year. If that was the offer I would jump on it immediately.

    You take Curry or Branch at #31 and Iloka at #39 then Wolfe/Reyes at #48. It would be an instant upgrade in all 3 levels and get you a potential top 10 pick next year. Then you can spend trade back #63 for a 3rd and 5th and grab a WR in the 3rd, Blake in the 4th (if he makes it this far), and a ST return in the 5th. My personal preferences would be Quick/Hilton with the 3rd and Rainey with the 5th
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Interesting read, maybe this is the secret to being an all pro pass rusher, cut a finger off?!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    Have the board discussed Juron Criner?  Man, he is good.  Cry for Criner. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onSTDBS38W8
    Posted by TrustBill


    Nice vid
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxnsl. Show maxnsl's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    CRINER LOOKS GREAT
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    Have the board discussed Juron Criner?  Man, he is good.  Cry for Criner. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onSTDBS38W8
    Posted by TrustBill

    You might not like my evaluation but just realize that I do think he is a solid WR.

    Criner has above average height and size for a possession WR. He has sub-par speed (4.6) has good hands and is an average route runner. He excels at jumping for balls, catching them at their height, and use his body to effectively box out defenders. Not a great downfield option would be best suited in short slants and red zone situations due to speed and projected issues gaining separation at the next level. He'll be best used in mismatch situations and not as an every down WR.

    IMO his ceiling is an average #2 WR but will make his money as a #3 WR that creates mismatches. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Faucetman. Show Faucetman's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : I don't think an OG is out of the question.  I like Zeitler, as do you, however assuming they wait until Rd 3 and beyond, I like Joe Looney (6-4 315 Wake Forest .  Love the last name, haha... kid has good size, decent athleticism and quicks, is versatile, plays tough/competitive, and is said to be a vocal player with solid character.
    Posted by mbeaulieu07

    Great tip.  I'll look into Looney.  Wonder what his nickname is going to be?

    Or if Light and Waters retire or otherwise depart, they would free up $7.25MM in cap.  We could use that money, which is what we pay Mankins, to sign Carl Nicks.  Of course he would have to move to the right side.  Then if we drafted Konz, can you even imagine an OL of Solder, Mankins, Konz, Nicks and Vollmer with Gronk  occasionally staying in to block?  Mankins would become the baby of the group.  Common Giants and Ravens.  Where's your pass rush now?
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Faucetman. Show Faucetman's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Wright and Orhnberger both released.  No surprise.  Wright clears $2.4MM, Orhn, $573K.  So we now have $3MM more in cap space. 

    Time to post this recent piece by Mike Reiss.  I first suggested this on 2/7 immediately following the SB.  Reiss at first dismissed the suggestion but he is now giving the idea some play.  Willie McGinest also gave it some play today as did Wallace himself who thought he would fit in good with the Pats or Niners.

    Personally I think it a long shot but I love to speculate. 



    The possibility of making a run at Steelers restricted free agent Mike Wallace has been analyzed in this space. Wallace is the type of outside-the-numbers speed receiver that the Patriots (and other teams) could use, but the cost would be steep.

    The following are three perspectives on Wallace:

    [+] Enlarge
    Mike Wallace
    Mitch Stringer/US Presswire
    1. View from Pittsburgh. Ed Bouchette, who covers the team for the Post-Gazette, blogs an informative piece on Wallace. Bouchette dissects how Wallace's free-agent scenario is likely to unfold -- the Steelers tendering him at the first-round level as a restricted free agent -- and then sums up his NFL career this way: "His first three seasons have been rocket-like, with him climbing higher and higher. However, in the middle of what seemed to be his best and record-setting season [in 2011], Wallace fizzled. ... Here's the question the Steelers and other prospective suitors in free agency must determine: Did defenses figure out Mike Wallace finally as the one-trick pony that Mike Tomlin long declared he was?"

    2. Belichick's take on Wallace. Prior to the Patriots-Steelers game on Oct. 30, 2011, Patriots coach Bill Belichick was asked about Wallace, who was targeted as a key player to limit in the game-plan, which opened up the inside passing game for the Steelers. "He's a big play receiver. He's really fast. Nobody is going to catch him, so you have to be careful about how much space he gets when he catches the ball," Belichick said. "I think he's improved a lot from when we played them last year, just as a football player, his patience and route technique. He has great speed but he also is getting better at route technique, setting up routes, using his speed, changing his pace. He's good after the catch with the ball in his hands. He breaks tackles and eludes people, does a nice job of going up and getting the ball in the deep part of the field, he's taken it away from some defensive backs. I'd say overall [he] improved his route running in the red area where there's less space. He still is a key guy down there. He did a lot of things well last year, doing them well this year and even better. [He's made] plays in just about every game. He stretches the field but he can also take a short pass and turn it into a long run, so you have to defend him from the line of scrimmage to the back of the end zone and from sideline to sideline. He's a tough guy to match up on. He's done a good job. Obviously he's worked hard and he's being well coached and he's got a good quarterback and other good receivers to complement him. He's part of their very productive offense."

    3. Caserio's take on Wallace. On a conference call on Oct. 24, leading into the Patriots-Steelers game, Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio was asked about Wallace, who entered the league as a third-round draft choice out of Mississippi in 2009. Why did he slip to the third round? "Coming out he was a big, fast receiver. His production, just in a relative base - I think he had back-to-back 30-catch years. Some of that was the offense, some of that was some other factors," Caserio said. "But since he's been in the league, since year one up until this point, he's really improved just as an overall receiver. I think he was big and could always run. He's just become more consistent in all phases - route running, catching the ball, understanding coverages, just understanding how the defense is playing. Really these last couple years, including this year, he's played at a very high level. He had a real productive year for their offense last year. I think he's averaged, I want to say, 20 yards or close to 20 yards a catch since he's been in the league, so he's always been a big play receiver who can attack the third level part of the defense - the vertical part of the defense. He's done some other things just with the underneath route running and he's improved. It's a credit to him and a credit to the Pittsburgh coaching staff for what they've done with him."
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Faucetman. Show Faucetman's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    There is probably one more person calling for this Wallace move - Tom Brady!!  Cutting Ocho clears another $1.5MM so we now have $4.5MM to put into play towards making this happen.  Barrett won't be missed, there's another mil.  Donald Thomas would clear $750K with no dead money.  So I found $6.25MM by cutting Wright, Orhnberger, Barrett, Ocho and Thomas.  We still have to give up pick 31 but for a proven commodity, not another Chad Jackson or Taylor Price or Tate.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Faucet - you're obsessed. They might or might not go after Wallace but if they do it will be so out of character for them that it would signal a fundamental shift in how they deal with WR's moving forward.

    Here's what being speculated for the experts

    Wallace will likely command ~48mil for 5 years with at least half guaranteed. If that thought is true then you have to figure at least 20mil if not 24mil will be as signing bonus. That is at minimum a 4mil cap hit. With at minimum 28mil in salary remaining over 5 years even if you only pay 3mil the first 2 years of the deal you would need an escalator of 5mil for the next 2 years after followed by a fake 5th year at 12mil. The Pats have never given a WR that kind of contract under the BB era. They actually have never given any player from another team that kind of contract. They have also never given any team a 1st round pick for a player.

    Lloyd will likely command ~15mil for 2 years with 4-5mil guaranteed. Taking the high end of the signing bonus you have 2.5mil split between both years. If you give Marshall 3mil the first year and 7mil the second year then it becomes basically a manageable prove it contract similar to what Moss saw in 07'. If he doesn't work out you can cut him at minimum cost and if he can have another 10' season you can extend him guarantying that 7mil in the second year as a bonus on a 2 year extension (3.33 cap hit over 3 years) and have a similar salary structure in the 3-4mil/yr average. This is a contract Pats tend to cherish and like to give out.

    If they sign Wallace before signing Welker or after signing Welker, if they don't offer Welker a similar or higher contract things will get messy and risk fracturing that locker room BB just rebuilt.

    I don't know if they will even target Lloyd I just used him as an example from what is being speculated for contract but it just doesn't seem like a wise move to go after Wallace for both the cap consideration and for the Welker situation
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Personally I like faucetman's idea of bringing Wallace here, if only for the fact that he was way ahead of the idea and built up several reasons why it could happen (despite it being a long shot). The board is for good ideas and speculation - he was on this one right away.

    Personally I don't think it will happen - although I'm starting to think it should. As we saw last night (and what we will see in the coming days)...there is a lot of cash we can free up against the cap right now...add into the fact that we are way under the cap as well. We are so far under the cap because we aren't signing big name guys, what exactly did being 25 million under the cap get us? It didn't get us Peppers, and it probably won't get us Williams or Wallace - it definitely didn't help us stop the Giants from controlling 2/3rds of the clock in the Super Bowl.

    Spend some damn money, Brady will only be in his prime for another couple of seasons. In the NFL the salary cap is the most fluid thing in sports and it just gets bigger and bigger every single year. This organization is always talking about not risking the future for today...how the hell does being 25 million under the cap help today or tomorrow if you it's just sitting there. We can't expect Brady to be absolutely perfect and beat teams with undrafted free agents, when the enemy is spending to the cap and drafting for today
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Faucetman. Show Faucetman's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    For the record, I don't think the Pats would go after Wallace and give up the pick.  I honestly would be as shocked as anyone if they did it.  But I agree with Mthrul that the idea has merit and I disagree with Eng that we can't afford it.  We were sitting at About $20-25MM below the cap before cutting Orhn and Wright yesterday.  We just saved $3MM with that move.  Other potential cap savings could come from cuts or retirements for these players:

    $5MM       Light
    $2.25MM  Waters
    $1.5MM    Ocho
    $1MM      Barrett
    $785K      Brace
    $750K     Donald Thomas
    $615K     Underwood
    ______
    $11,900,000 in additional cap space could be acheived.  With the ability to use space from last year and to borrow for veterans this year we could have over $38MM in cap space and about $10MM of dead cap come off the books after 2013.

    So affording Wallace isn't the issue.  Giving up the draft pick is the issue.

    We could have the cap space to sign all these guys if we wanted to.  Some contracts like Wallace would be front loaded, so the Steelers can't match, some would be back loaded, like Williams.  These are estimated 2012 cap numbers.

    Wallace ($7mm),
    Mario Williams ($8MM)
    Brandon Carr ($6MM)

    Wes Welker ($6MM)
    Anderson ($3MM)
    Connolly ($3MM)
     
    That's $33MM leaving $5MM left over for draft picks. 

    I don't think we will do any of this, I'm just showing we could have the cap room.  I do think BB is going to do something big.  Hopefully it is on defense.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Faucetman. Show Faucetman's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    I would cut the players in yellow saving $7.7MM.  If Light and/or Waters retire, that would clear another $7.25MM.

    The below chart might not be 100% accurate but it includes 43 players, 2 we just cut.  I heard our actual cap number was at $101MM with the cap likely to be between $122-125MM.  We can keep Welker and perhaps make 2-3 big F/A acquisitions.

    NamePositionCapDeadCap
    ValueMoneySavings
    Light, MattOL$8,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,000,000
    Wright, MikeDT$2,913,120 $450,000 $2,463,120 DONE
    Waters, BrianOL$2,250,000 $0 $2,250,000
    Ochocinco, ChadWR$4,683,333 $3,166,667 $1,516,666
    Barrett, JoshS$1,133,120 $125,000 $1,008,120
    Arrington, KyleCB$1,150,000 $200,000 $950,000
    Brace, RonDE$1,345,120 $560,000 $785,120
    Woodhead, DannyRB$899,788 $141,668 $758,120
    Thomas, DonaldOL$750,000 $0 $750,000
    Vollmer, SebastianOL$980,000 $305,000 $675,000
    Chung, PatrickS$1,158,120 $500,000 $658,120
    Wendell, RyanOL$950,000 $300,000 $650,000
    Hernandez, AaronTE$740,000 $100,000 $640,000
    Underwood, TiquanWR$615,000 $0 $615,000
    Gostkowski, StephenP/K$3,008,120 $2,400,000 $608,120
    Ohrnberger, RichOL$588,120 $15,000 $573,120 DONE
    Edelman, JulianWR$585,295 $12,175 $573,120
    Pryor, MyronDT$584,750 $19,750 $565,000
    McDonald, NickOL$540,000 $0 $540,000
    Fletcher, DaneLB$501,454 $3,334 $498,120
    Brown, SergioS$507,828 $19,419 $488,409
    Deaderick, BrandonDE$508,195 $20,150 $488,045
    Tarpinian, JeffLB$465,000 $0 $465,000
    Aiken, DannyOL$465,000 $0 $465,000
    Mesko, ZoltanP/K$544,932 $93,626 $451,306
    Williams, MalcolmCB$450,000 $0 $450,000
    Cox, ChristianLB$390,000 $0 $390,000
    Hix, KyleOL$393,000 $6,000 $387,000
    Cannon, MarcusOL$531,406 $150,375 $381,031
    Ninkovich, RobLB$1,666,666 $1,333,334 $333,332
    Spikes, BrandonLB$738,120 $480,000 $258,120
    Mallett, RyanQB$669,961 $482,907 $187,054
    Ridley, StevanRB$671,250 $486,000 $185,250
    Cunningham, JermaineDE$828,120 $660,000 $168,120
    Gronkowski, RobTE$968,120 $880,000 $88,120
    Brady, TomQB$15,208,120 $15,350,000 ($141,880)
    Vereen, ShaneRB$786,625 $1,132,938 ($346,313)
    Dowling, Ras-ICB$1,205,477 $2,735,618 ($1,530,141)
    McCourty, DevinCB$1,708,120 $3,435,000 ($1,726,880)
    Wilfork, VinceDT$8,608,120 $10,800,000 ($2,191,880)
    Solder, NateOL$1,941,021 $6,217,869 ($4,276,848)
    Mankins, LoganOL$7,000,000 $16,000,000 ($9,000,000)
    Mayo, JerodLB$8,833,120 $21,075,000 ($12,241,880)
    TOTALALL$85,187,806
    $7,711,146  
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Faucet, if the Pats get Nicks the Pats would be paying to O Linemen 14m+. Seems like alot of money to me.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    The only thing I question Faucet with your estimates is how much years 13', 14', and 15' would cost in terms of Wallace, Williams, Welker, and Carr. Those are top end players who will be looking for max bonuses and contracts. To get their cap numbers so low you'll have to almost completely backload the deals. What's going to happen when Chungs, Hern, Gronks, Spikes, Vollmers contracts come up and you have a lot of back loaded contracts tied up between players you signed this year? If you cut there, there will be a ton of dead money, if you restructure you end up in the Jets situation, if you keep them then you might not have the funds to sign your core guys currently on the team.

    That's one thing I really like BB's approach to FA's. Unless they've played under him they don't get long term contracts with large bonuses. This prevents the risk of large amounts of dead money and leaves room for signing core player currently on the team. I like his approach of prove it contracts that once they prove they fit in the system then they get extended to larger deals (Vrable, Moss, Dillion, Haynesworth, Ocho, Harrison, Bodden). How he generally works it is a larger contract to save face for the player with minimal bonus to minimize dead money if it doesn't work out and a low 1st year salary to minimize cap hit. Then backload into the last year as much as possible. If the player performs he likes to guarantee the last year in the form of a bonus over an extension and keep salary low again which minimize cap hit. It's very smart maneuvering and generally they spend close to the cap every year in this fashion, paying for performance on the team not for potential performance. The reason they have so much cash this year is because of the uncapped year. They planned around what could or couldn't happen and had a number of large contracts front loaded paying up front while a number of larger 1-2 contracts and dead money got flushed out. I don't expect them to go crazy but they could take the tactic of targeting 1-2 FA's the really want and front load their deals to prevent future cap problems with core players contracts coming up while also adding a bunch of the low cap hit prove it contracts.

    Players like Lloyd, Robinson, Marshall, Middleton would be targets for prove it contracts because they all have question marks and might be looking to prove themselves for larger contracts down the road. There might not be as large of a demand for them given other options at their position in FA

    While players like Williams, Carr, Wallace, Griffin might be players you'd want to front loaded because they are proven players who are considered so of the top potential players in their respective FA class that will demand larger bonuses and longer contracts.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    Wright and Orhnberger both released.  No surprise.  Wright clears $2.4MM, Orhn, $573K.  So we now have $3MM more in cap space.  Time to post this recent piece by Mike Reiss.  I first suggested this on 2/7 immediately following the SB.  Reiss at first dismissed the suggestion but he is now giving the idea some play.  Willie McGinest also gave it some play today as did Wallace himself who thought he would fit in good with the Pats or Niners. Personally I think it a long shot but I love to speculate.  By Mike Reiss The possibility of making a run at Steelers restricted free agent Mike Wallace has been analyzed in this space. Wallace is the type of outside-the-numbers speed receiver that the Patriots (and other teams) could use, but the cost would be steep. The following are three perspectives on Wallace: [+] Enlarge Mitch Stringer/US Presswire 1. View from Pittsburgh . Ed Bouchette, who covers the team for the Post-Gazette, blogs an informative piece on Wallace. Bouchette dissects how Wallace's free-agent scenario is likely to unfold -- the Steelers tendering him at the first-round level as a restricted free agent -- and then sums up his NFL career this way: "His first three seasons have been rocket-like, with him climbing higher and higher. However, in the middle of what seemed to be his best and record-setting season [in 2011], Wallace fizzled. ... Here's the question the Steelers and other prospective suitors in free agency must determine: Did defenses figure out Mike Wallace finally as the one-trick pony that Mike Tomlin long declared he was?" 2. Belichick's take on Wallace . Prior to the Patriots-Steelers game on Oct. 30, 2011, Patriots coach Bill Belichick was asked about Wallace, who was targeted as a key player to limit in the game-plan, which opened up the inside passing game for the Steelers. "He's a big play receiver. He's really fast. Nobody is going to catch him, so you have to be careful about how much space he gets when he catches the ball," Belichick said. "I think he's improved a lot from when we played them last year, just as a football player, his patience and route technique. He has great speed but he also is getting better at route technique, setting up routes, using his speed, changing his pace. He's good after the catch with the ball in his hands. He breaks tackles and eludes people, does a nice job of going up and getting the ball in the deep part of the field, he's taken it away from some defensive backs. I'd say overall [he] improved his route running in the red area where there's less space. He still is a key guy down there. He did a lot of things well last year, doing them well this year and even better. [He's made] plays in just about every game. He stretches the field but he can also take a short pass and turn it into a long run, so you have to defend him from the line of scrimmage to the back of the end zone and from sideline to sideline. He's a tough guy to match up on. He's done a good job. Obviously he's worked hard and he's being well coached and he's got a good quarterback and other good receivers to complement him. He's part of their very productive offense." 3. Caserio's take on Wallace . On a conference call on Oct. 24, leading into the Patriots-Steelers game, Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio was asked about Wallace, who entered the league as a third-round draft choice out of Mississippi in 2009. Why did he slip to the third round? "Coming out he was a big, fast receiver. His production, just in a relative base - I think he had back-to-back 30-catch years. Some of that was the offense, some of that was some other factors," Caserio said. "But since he's been in the league, since year one up until this point, he's really improved just as an overall receiver. I think he was big and could always run. He's just become more consistent in all phases - route running, catching the ball, understanding coverages, just understanding how the defense is playing. Really these last couple years, including this year, he's played at a very high level. He had a real productive year for their offense last year. I think he's averaged, I want to say, 20 yards or close to 20 yards a catch since he's been in the league, so he's always been a big play receiver who can attack the third level part of the defense - the vertical part of the defense. He's done some other things just with the underneath route running and he's improved. It's a credit to him and a credit to the Pittsburgh coaching staff for what they've done with him."
    Posted by Faucetman



    Per CBS Sports Mike Freeman (as part of one of his recent articles)

    "It's true the Pittsburgh Steelers might not be able to keep Mike Wallace. That would seem like a potentially huge problem. His speed is formidable and he loosens up the entire Steelers offense, but there is a contrarian thought circulating around football -- defenses have deciphered Wallace and he's no longer the threat he once was. It's an interesting theory. There's also the fact Pittsburgh has an uncanny ability to successfully replace talent."

    Here are his numbers broken down in season halfs for 2011

    800 yards in 1st 8 games 2011 on 43 catches or 18.6 yard avg

    393 yards in final 8 games 2011 on 29 catches or 13.5 yard avg

    Does it prove or mean anything? No idea but does make you wonder and it does tie into that contrarians rumor.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    i wonder what salary is guaranteed under the tender of a 1st round?  would wallace accept that salary?  if not would pitt be able to keep him assuming no one offered a 1st for him?  would they then be forced to cut him loose if he refused to sign the contract?
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Nate - with the tender it's not guaranteed but there is no chance Pitt would dump him so it's about as good as guaranteed.

    With regards to the Pats offering him .5mil more then the tender that won't work either. Wallace needs to want to sign with a team. Just submitting an offer won't mean he'll take it. He is still a young kid so there is no reason for him to take a low ball offer just because it's worth more then a 1yr tender. Unless he gets an offer he wants his best choice is to bite his lip take the tender and get a great contract next year in FA.

    With regards to Pit. They are desperately cutting salaries trying to save enough money to match what another team could offer. It's the first right of refusal for Pit. Even if Wallace accepts a deal Pitt can match it. So if the offer was low balled there is no reason Pit wouldn't try to match it but cutting whatever salary they need to
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    Faucet, if the Pats get Nicks the Pats would be paying to O Linemen 14m+. Seems like alot of money to me.
    Posted by JohnHannahrulz

    Nicks would be a luxury we could afford if both Light and Waters retire.  If neither retires, we are current expending the following 2012 cap on our key OL players:

    $8.0MM  Light
    $1.9MM  Solder
    $7MM     Mankins
    $2.25MM Waters
    $980K    Vollmer
    $950K    Wendell
    $531K    Cannon

    We are spending $21.6MM on 7 key OL players or 17.28% of the cap (assuming $125MM) for 13.2% of the 53 man roster.

    If we lost Light and Waters and brought in Nicks and drafted Konz, it actually improves our cap.  Estimated 2012 cap charge by key OL player would then be:

    $1.9MM  Solder
    $7MM     Mankins
    $1.3MM  Konz
    $7MM     Nicks
    $980K    Vollmer
    $950K    Wendell
    $531K    Cannon

    So our top 7 OL would eat up $19.661MM which translates to 15.7% of the cap.  The 7 players represent 13.2% of the 53 players.

    Now I'm not trying to make a case for another high priced OG.  The best thing for the cap would be to have Light retire and Waters play out his final year healthy and we don't bring back Connolly.  Connolly could demand $3-4MM of cap space. 

    $1.9MM  Solder
    $7MM     Mankins
    $1.3MM  Konz
    $2.25MM Waters
    $980K    Vollmer
    $950K    Wendell
    $531K    Cannon

    Now you lower the cap charge to $14.9MM or 11.9% of the cap for 13.2% of the players.

    Even if we don't draft Konz and bring back Connolly at $3MM we are better off then where we are today.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    The only thing I question Faucet with your estimates is how much years 13', 14', and 15' would cost in terms of Wallace, Williams, Welker, and Carr. Those are top end players who will be looking for max bonuses and contracts. To get their cap numbers so low you'll have to almost completely backload the deals. What's going to happen when Chungs, Hern, Gronks, Spikes, Vollmers contracts come up and you have a lot of back loaded contracts tied up between players you signed this year? If you cut there, there will be a ton of dead money, if you restructure you end up in the Jets situation, if you keep them then you might not have the funds to sign your core guys currently on the team. That's one thing I really like BB's approach to FA's. Unless they've played under him they don't get long term contracts with large bonuses. This prevents the risk of large amounts of dead money and leaves room for signing core player currently on the team. I like his approach of prove it contracts that once they prove they fit in the system then they get extended to larger deals (Vrable, Moss, Dillion, Haynesworth, Ocho, Harrison, Bodden). How he generally works it is a larger contract to save face for the player with minimal bonus to minimize dead money if it doesn't work out and a low 1st year salary to minimize cap hit. Then backload into the last year as much as possible. If the player performs he likes to guarantee the last year in the form of a bonus over an extension and keep salary low again which minimize cap hit. It's very smart maneuvering and generally they spend close to the cap every year in this fashion, paying for performance on the team not for potential performance. The reason they have so much cash this year is because of the uncapped year. They planned around what could or couldn't happen and had a number of large contracts front loaded paying up front while a number of larger 1-2 contracts and dead money got flushed out. I don't expect them to go crazy but they could take the tactic of targeting 1-2 FA's the really want and front load their deals to prevent future cap problems with core players contracts coming up while also adding a bunch of the low cap hit prove it contracts. Players like Lloyd, Robinson, Marshall, Middleton would be targets for prove it contracts because they all have question marks and might be looking to prove themselves for larger contracts down the road. There might not be as large of a demand for them given other options at their position in FA While players like Williams, Carr, Wallace, Griffin might be players you'd want to front loaded because they are proven players who are considered so of the top potential players in their respective FA class that will demand larger bonuses and longer contracts.
    Posted by PatsEng

    If we make the moves I suggested earlier we'd have $38MM of cap space.  If we wanted Wallace, the best thing is to front load the offer making it even harder for PIT to match.  That way his cap charge decreases over time.  You front load Wallace and tag Welker.  Maybe you spread Carr out evenly.  Let's say altogether they eat $25MM in 2012 cap.  You still have $13MM to sign your picks, add another top free agent and round out the roster. 

    The only key free agents we have after 2012 season are Chung, Vollmer, Arrington, Woodhead, Pryor and Edelman.  Chung, Vollmer, Pryor and Edelman are all part of the class of 2009 so all would be restricted.  Chung and Vollmer I would restrict at the first round level, let's say $3MM each, the other 2 at the 2nd round level at $2MM each.  So, 2013 should not be an issue so you could front load let's say Wallace and tag Welker twice.  The players would much rather have their money up front and guaranteed. 

    Heading into 2014 you have Gronk, Hern, Spikes, Mesko, Deaderick all who can be restricted, Fletcher can't.  We are set until after the 2014 season.  Brady's contract expires then as do just about everyone else.  Brady would probably need to go year-to-year at that point.
     
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