Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread***
posted at 11/8/2011 7:42 PM EST
In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread***
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread***
use to think that the 09', 10', 11' drafts were amazing given the shear amount of high round picks but when you break it down it paints a scary picture on how many picks were thrown away.
this is the most disturbing part. we could be a championship team.
I don't just mean in terms of players no longer on the team but also players who were expected to be average starters at worst and ended up being rotational backups. It seems that trading back and acquiring a ton of picks will get you decent depth and at least 1 solid starter every year but you don't get the impact players. I've seen that it's almost impossible to find an impact player in the 2nd and 3rd round yet the closer you are to #1 the more likely you have to find one. I know this doesn't come as much of a shock but when you realize that the depth and getting a ton of picks haven't worked at all for this team over the last 3 years and what's missing, on D at least, is a player who other teams need to account for then it's maddening not to move up and take a chance on getting an impact player.
this was my analysis at teh end of the season lat year and going into the draft.
from my experience set i also specualted as to why bb behaves this way, outside of improper judgement
(BTW look at the depth on D right now. Brown, Barrett, Adams, Molden, White I mean really, that's the best depth they could get in an area of weakness to begin with?)
The way I look at it is that the Pats in the first 3 rounds get a solid starter with 25% of their picks or at least a backup role player on 40% of those picks. So, what are the odds that if you moved up to a top 20 pick that you'd find at minimum a solid starter or better? I'd put it closer to 50%. So, you slightly decrease the odds of getting a solid player every year but, you are drastically increasing your odds of getting an impact player if every so often you move up to get one.
regarldless of the % the point is made.
however chances of a stud playmaker are considerably higher.
I don't mean take the Jets approach but when you have the extra ammo and have a critical need that requires an impact player spend a couple of chips to go after the jackpot. As a wise man once said, "you can't win if you never play" and another said "if you go for broke and lose then what do you have to show but that you are a fool" but there has to be a happy median. I have to believe when an area of need has a lot of depth in the draft that you move chips to take a risk on show of that talent and when the draft is weak or your needs are minimized is when you hold back for more. It seems the philosophy regardless of strength of certain positions or need on the team is to trade back and get value instead of move forward for talent. It's just like gameday. If you only run 1 game plan constantly you will lose, you need to adjust and plan around your weaknesses and the strengths of what's in front of you.
i made this point going into the draft last year.
saying another way, if you use one strategy skillfully ie accumulating draft picks, but you cannot take advantage of that strategy, in bb's case, due to his addiction to it as an ends rather than as a means to an end (being creating a championship team), the whole benefit of using the accumulation strategy goes to waste. (analogy, you are in vegas and you amass chips amazingly, but due to your delusion or addiction, you never trade any chips in for cash).
i dont read thisin you post, regardless of strategies, the draft team and evaluators are striking out far more often than the best drafting teams in the league. to be one of the better teams and organizations in the league (and if you are a fan at any rate), you want the best people in place from the scouts to the top. imo we dont have that and it needs to be rectified.
thanks for the post.