***2012 Patriots Draft Thread***! THANKS TO ALL WHO PARTICIPATED!

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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    One idea I have not heard mentioned in FA.

     Maybe the Pats do not want to spend any $. I think I read that we do not need to spend to the cap this year ( 90% in future ) and that we can carry forward any unused $. If we think that we can be a playoff team without adding big name players and carry forward this money it could help us not blow up the team in future years. All the talk about not being able to afford Gronk and Hern, well BB would be the one to have the patience and frugality to hold the $ in the wallet now ( take the wrath of fans for being cheap ) then benefiting the team in the coming years by locking up both guys. ( or others from are plethora of recent draft picks who step up )
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]One idea I have not heard mentioned in FA.  Maybe the Pats do not want to spend any $. I think I read that we do not need to spend to the cap this year ( 90% in future ) and that we can carry forward any unused $. If we think that we can be a playoff team without adding big name players and carry forward this money it could help us not blow up the team in future years. All the talk about not being able to afford Gronk and Hern, well BB would be the one to have the patience and frugality to hold the $ in the wallet now ( take the wrath of fans for being cheap ) then benefiting the team in the coming years by locking up both guys. ( or others from are plethora of recent draft picks who step up )
    Posted by Asher77[/QUOTE]

    The flaw in this thought, well there's a couple:

    1) Brady has limited time left so what's the point of carrying salary forward to the future years (doesn't mean spend everything now just why not spend what you have with an eye on the future for cap management)

    2) In 2014 they are expecting a $20-30mil cap increase. Next years FA's will realize this and want even larger contract next year with the idea teams can eat the space in the 2014 year. If you think the contract are crazy this year wait until next year. Better to spend the cash now because the increase in contract demand is likely to consume whatever you don't spend this year anyways
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : The flaw in this thought, well there's a couple: 1) Brady has limited time left so what's the point of carrying salary forward to the future years (doesn't mean spend everything now just why not spend what you have with an eye on the future for cap management) 2) In 2014 they are expecting a $20-30mil cap increase. Next years FA's will realize this and want even larger contract next year with the idea teams can eat the space in the 2014 year. If you think the contract are crazy this year wait until next year. Better to spend the cash now because the increase in contract demand is likely to consume whatever you don't spend this year anyways

    I wasn't advocating the idea, just tossing it out becasue it deserves some consideration.

    In response to your two points. I think we as fans care more about Brady's last days than Bill does. Yes as a human you can't escape the thought to go for it now but if anyone can BB shuts that off. He wants to win with Mallet or whoever is next just as bad as he wants to win this year. Longevity and a chance to always win is better than imediate gratification.

    Second, the salary bump has no real impact as it is negligable due to the fact teams and agents are aware of this and they are factoring that money into this years negotiations. All the more reason to hold $ back. The top end FA pay bumps will cause a trickle effect where low level players also see increases. This will result in an across the board average pay increase and eat up that salary cap bump. Depth is a key and by carrying 6-10M as extra cap year over year we cushion ourselves and I think we do spend the $ but on the defense as it stands. We have a ton of young guys 24-26 years old and they are learning to play together in a complicated scheme. We need to lock down all of them and when they are 27-28 the benefits of that core group will be aparent.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : The flaw in this thought, well there's a couple: 1) Brady has limited time left so what's the point of carrying salary forward to the future years (doesn't mean spend everything now just why not spend what you have with an eye on the future for cap management) 2) In 2014 they are expecting a $20-30mil cap increase. Next years FA's will realize this and want even larger contract next year with the idea teams can eat the space in the 2014 year. If you think the contract are crazy this year wait until next year. Better to spend the cash now because the increase in contract demand is likely to consume whatever you don't spend this year anyways I wasn't advocating the idea, just tossing it out becasue it deserves some consideration. In response to your two points. I think we as fans care more about Brady's last days than Bill does. Yes as a human you can't escape the thought to go for it now but if anyone can BB shuts that off. He wants to win with Mallet or whoever is next just as bad as he wants to win this year. Longevity and a chance to always win is better than imediate gratification. Second, the salary bump has no real impact as it is negligable due to the fact teams and agents are aware of this and they are factoring that money into this years negotiations. All the more reason to hold $ back. The top end FA pay bumps will cause a trickle effect where low level players also see increases. This will result in an across the board average pay increase and eat up that salary cap bump. Depth is a key and by carrying 6-10M as extra cap year over year we cushion ourselves and I think we do spend the $ but on the defense as it stands. We have a ton of young guys 24-26 years old and they are learning to play together in a complicated scheme. We need to lock down all of them and when they are 27-28 the benefits of that core group will be aparent.
    Posted by Asher77[/QUOTE]

    If the market was stagnate you'd have a point on your second point but since the market raises based on the previous market saving 6mil this year to use next year means that if FA's increase the market 10% from the previous year that money you carried over is worth less next year then it is this year. It's like savings accounts. If the apr in your savings account is lower then the annual increase in cost of living your money is actually worth less then it was last year. It's just how it works. So unless you are targeting a specific FA for next year then it's almost no use to carry cap space into the next year in a cap league.

    With regards to Brady. If Brady was a normal QB I'd agree but the only reason this team continues to win is solely based on Brady. We saw the drop with and without Brady in 07', 08', and 10' (not including 09' because it was his first year back). Unless Mallett pulls a Steve Young we can expect a 4-5game drop when it goes to Mallett. What's the point of planning for the future if the future makes you a fringe playoff team? Is it not better to load up when you have an all time great and use that success to it's utmost before you may need to blow it up anyways?
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!


    I understand your view of the 6M losing value. You have to consider that the player salaries are like the stock market, meaning that the future cap increase has been factored in now. Anyone we sign today is going to be with an increase in salary over last year even though the cap did not go up. This is because the players and agents are already pulling for that money. So our extra 6M already lost value over last year, that is when we should have spent it. Going into next year your 10% depreciation will be in fact alot less.

    We also do already have FA in mind for that extra carried money. I think that would be to lock up early the core of the defense and offense before they hit open market and gain leverage. We dont know who among the Spikes, Chungs, and the list goes on, will break out over the next two seasons and we need be rdy to pay them. This risk is magnified when you draft so many guys in early rounds like we did. We have to be smart to not let this core blow up in two years.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]I understand your view of the 6M losing value. You have to consider that the player salaries are like the stock market, meaning that the future cap increase has been factored in now. Anyone we sign today is going to be with an increase in salary over last year even though the cap did not go up. This is because the players and agents are already pulling for that money. So our extra 6M already lost value over last year, that is when we should have spent it. Going into next year your 10% depreciation will be in fact alot less. We also do already have FA in mind for that extra carried money. I think that would be to lock up early the core of the defense and offense before they hit open market and gain leverage. We dont know who among the Spikes, Chungs, and the list goes on, will break out over the next two seasons and we need be rdy to pay them. This risk is magnified when you draft so many guys in early rounds like we did. We have to be smart to not let this core blow up in two years.
    Posted by Asher77[/QUOTE]

    So wouldn't that money be better spent extending those players this year before they can sniff FA and before the market is raised again next year? Players like Chung who's contract is up after next season. If he's in your long term plans wouldn't it be better to spend the money this year on an extension to prevent the market from raising his value next year while also using the money before it loses value again next year?
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Patriots signed DE Jonathan Fanene to a three-year contract.

     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Brady does of course make us win. This doesnt mean we can't be a top NFL team and win it all without him. Could we have last year, no chance. Could we in the future, yes, and that will not be because Mallet is Steve Young but instead because we surround him with a top of the line veteran defense and a running game.

    So instead of going for broke and sending us to the NFL basement in 5 years time. Lets get these young guys on defense matured and hold onto them. In 3 years they may develop into a real solid and surpising unit. They were bad but we all seem to think they are close and none can argue that they are not very young and in a complex system. A few more high draft picks around them and a couple well picked mid lvl FA, we are good there.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : So wouldn't that money be better spent extending those players this year before they can sniff FA and before the market is raised again next year? Players like Chung who's contract is up after next season. If he's in your long term plans wouldn't it be better to spend the money this year on an extension to prevent the market from raising his value next year while also using the money before it loses value again next year?
    Posted by PatsEng[/QUOTE]

    Yes, that's my point. We don't have to sign Chung this week. My initial thought was on why we didn't jump into this high stakes bidding for the top FA's. We can use our cap this year or the next on our guys. If it is next then we carry it over while already haveing an idea on who from our team we will be targeting.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : Yes, that's my point. We don't have to sign Chung this week. My initial thought was on why we didn't jump into this high stakes bidding for the top FA's. We can use our cap this year or the next on our guys. If it is next then we carry it over while already haveing an idea on who from our team we will be targeting.
    Posted by Asher77[/QUOTE]

    Well sorta my point after re reading your post. I think the depreciation of our saved money will be alot less than you are envisioning. There is some but it is marginalized in the grand scheme. Bottom line is re sign our guys we want to keep as soon as it makes sense to do so and don't blow the $ now and handicap ourselves so the defense needs to rebuild in a couple years. Hold onto these draft picks we have developed.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : Well sorta my point after re reading your post. I think the depreciation of our saved money will be alot less than you are envisioning. There is some but it is marginalized in the grand scheme. Bottom line is re sign our guys we want to keep as soon as it makes sense to do so and don't blow the $ now and handicap ourselves so the defense needs to rebuild in a couple years. Hold onto these draft picks we have developed.
    Posted by Asher77[/QUOTE]

    I'm not sure if the savings would be maginalized. For example look at how much the market value increased between a yr before the contracts were up to the year after the tag year for Mankins, Wilfork, and now Welker. They all increased $1-2mil/yr on average over that time period. I can envision S increasing by $1mil/yr in that same time period. I wouldn't under estimate the markets pention to increase over a short period
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18! : I'm not sure if the savings would be maginalized. For example look at how much the market value increased between a yr before the contracts were up to the year after the tag year for Mankins, Wilfork, and now Welker. They all increased $1-2mil/yr on average over that time period. I can envision S increasing by $1mil/yr in that same time period. I wouldn't under estimate the markets pention to increase over a short period
    Posted by PatsEng[/QUOTE]


    My meaning on marginalized is that the positives way against the negatives. A guy on a rookie contract is cheap, when you then extend them you factor in the extra $ they will make over there existing contract. They then will have a lower cap hit per year over time ( then if they waited to hit FA ) but there is a raise they get when you recognize there good play.

    Welkers contract demands went up, thats true, but we have to factor in how much it went up over the extra $ we would have spent on him if we locked him up 2 years ago. No doubt he will now have a higher yearly cap number but the extra overall salary has mitigating factors.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]Patriots to work out Ron Brooks CB LSU
    Posted by Low-FB-IQ[/QUOTE]

    BOOM! ...super sleeper...
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]  To MB These guys were the key to the SB   Ds Seymour     6ft 6 in   310 lbs McGinnest   6ft 5 in  270 llbs   Seymour was somewhat a  Hybrid ,he could do DE 4/3 and DT in a 3/4 . As was Willy, he could put his hand on the ground out of the 3/4as DE ( I guess that means 4 down lineman ... so maybe we did that back then too!) and be an OLB with coverage skills in a traditional 3/4. Granted these guys were early first round picks. I think this is why BB trades down because studs like them dont come around every year especially in the last part of 1st round. I think he really looks for  that high performer flex guy and if he is not there he trades down and hope the next year he can find them , but still adding value guys for depth ( worked out pretty good this year) and getting a #1  the following year ( most likely lower than our regular #1).. Interestingly , BB seems to have done this on the offensive side with the 2 TEs giving same personnel look but can morph out diferent formations causing match up problems. But  is there anyone out there that would replicate these cats and could we get both. In the first 2 rounds or FA? Nick Perry USC ( ironic),McClellan? Second round   for McGinnest type   Is there a  Seymour type hybrid? 1 st round available at 27 or 31 or bundle and trade up for? if not screw it and take a shot at Wallace and give up 31  ? thanks again.    
    Posted by mgraham[/QUOTE]

    mg,
    Trying to play catch up after a 2+ day Corporate America induced break...

    The short answer is, no, there really isn't anyone within assumed range that will come in and mirror what Richard and Big Willie gave you, however I do think there is some talent in this class that could/would improve there defense in rather short order.

     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Considering the WR market right now and the absolutely crazy contracts along with Welkers demands most likely increasing because of said crazy contracts (why they didn't extend him before or immediately after the lockout I don't know). But, do you think it's possible instead of through FA they dbl down on WR's this year?

    If they do I can see them going after either Hill or Randle with #31 and Quick or M Jones with #63
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]Considering the WR market right now and the absolutely crazy contracts along with Welkers demands most likely increasing because of said crazy contracts (why they didn't extend him before or immediately after the lockout I don't know). But, do you think it's possible instead of through FA they dbl down on WR's this year? If they do I can see them going after either Hill or Randle with #31 and Quick or M Jones with #63
    Posted by PatsEng[/QUOTE]

    I think a double down on WR is entirely possible yes, though I'd be pretty suprised if they came out of FA without addressing the position.  I prefer Randle/Jones in those respective slots, given those choices.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    doubling was my plan anyway (with this huge crop )
    one big guy and one slot.
    still wold have been nice to have a reasonable price vet.
    9.4 was too rich for me for wes.
    andseems clear he isnt wanting to take soemthing the pats can handle.
    8 mil pe yr for 2 yrs was a lil much for me (per yr)
    go young if you gotta go young.
    maybe see if we can get a 1st aometime this year for welk
    i know this isnt their plan, but is my thinking (unless he came down on price on a contract not more than 3 yrs).
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

     mb, do you see jones moving to slot in the nfl. dont know that he's strong enough to get off the line against big cbs.

    randle seems a risk (productionwise, not his ceiling of physical ability). big possible upside.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE] mb, do you see jones moving to slot in the nfl. dont know that he's strong enough to get off the line against big cbs. randle seems a risk (productionwise, not his ceiling of physical ability). big possible upside.
    Posted by bredbru[/QUOTE]

    br,

    I think Jones could operate out of the slot without any issues, but think he's very well suited to play (and will be drafted as such) on the outside at the NFL level.  Very good size (6-2, almost 200), quick off the line, excellent route runner, separates consistently and can get behind a D.  As strength goes, he did (22) reps at 225, which is the most that I've seen for any receiver tested, so he does have upper body strength.

    Randle has an excellent skill set, good hands and can really create after the catch.  I think he played victim to subpar QB play at the collegiate level... think his best years are ahead of him.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Based on what's left of the S market, I'll be very suprised if they don't come out of the draft with one of the Top 4 kids on the board.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    I've got the Pats at about $10.5MM of cap space with the new signings today.  I don't have the cap numbers for White or Slater but counted $2.9MM combined which I'm sure is high.  They will likely use that to sign Connolly, Anderson and perhaps add a RB or low level DB then they are done until the draft.
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    Of the shrinking S market, Laron Landry is definitely intriguing, though I'd be suprised if he could last a full season, whether it be due to injury or being suspended for some sort of performance enhancer.

    Of the remaining S market, Nelson, Adams & Leonhard are prob the most popular names out there and they've brought in Steve Gregory for a look, but below are some players (a few that have been mentioned already) that I think could provide some value and come at a relatively low cost:

    Tom Zbikowski
    Melvin Bullett
    Haruki Nakamura
    Rashad Johnson (RFA)
    Matt Giordano
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]Of the shrinking S market, Laron Landry is definitely intriguing, though I'd be suprised if he could last a full season, whether it be due to injury or being suspended for some sort of performance enhancer. Of the remaining S market, Nelson, Adams & Leonhard are prob the most popular names out there and they've brought in Steve Gregory for a look, but below are some players (a few that have been mentioned already) that I think could provide some value and come at a relatively low cost: Tom Zbikowski Melvin Bullett Haruki Nakamura Rashad Johnson (RFA) Matt Giordano
    Posted by mbeaulieu07[/QUOTE]

    Gregory I see as a James Sanders type of player. Solid overall but not above average in any one aspect.

    I would love to get Gregory as a back up.

    Landry no thank you. I see him like Bob Sanders. Might get you a couple wins in the reg season but won't last through the season. The regular season isn't our issue the playoffs are.

    Right now given the weak draft and FA class the best action imo is to sign Webb as a RFA moving McCourty to FS. Then next year in a much strong S class grab a S then. Or take a conversion CB to FS later in the draft and try to convert them through the season
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    just lost out on richard marshall vesatile cb/s to dolphins top 35 in the top 100 fa's
     
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    Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!

    In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!:
    [QUOTE]just lost out on richard marshall vesatile cb/s to dolphins top 35 in the top 100 fa's
    Posted by bredbru[/QUOTE]

    Damn and at a very reasonable rate too. I thought for sure the Pats would give him a look. He seems like a very Pats type of player that could of help in the secondary.

    I'm really confused to their plan with regards to FA right now

     

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