2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

     

    In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:

     

    Good job.  I like the pick you made for the Pats.  Jenkins is not a perfect prospect, but is a rare athlete.  I agree that it is time to look for a successor for Vince, and Jenkins could be just the guy.

     




     

    I think the DTs will go really fast this year. In addition to the normal demand, there are two teams converting to 34, who will certainly be in a hunt for an NT. Teams that could pick a DT in the first include JAX, OAK, CLE, NYJ, TEN, NOS, PIT, MIN, IND, GBP, NWE.

    My guess:

    JAX: Finds Jordan and Ansah too fascinating. They forego a DT. Takes one of Jordan or Ansah. If I were them, I'd take the latter. I think DET takes the other.

    OAK: Their situation with Kelly and Seymour makes DT a must. I think they pick Floyd

    NYJ: They could take a pass-rusher. But with Star on the board, I don't think Ryan will be able to resist taking a very talented NT. They take Lotulelei.

    TEN: Will take Richardson if BUF takes Warmack

    NOS: Conversion to 34 will be problematic without a NT - the most critical position in the scheme.  Big kids with high level of kids don't appear on every draft. They gotta take an NT. Of the available DTs, my guess is they pick the one who is closest to being ready to start. That would be Hankins.

    PIT: I have them picking a backfill to Harrison. However, Hampton is FA. Behind Hampton, they have McLendon (maybe too small to play PIT style of 34) and Taamu. My guess is they get a vet from FA if Taamu is not ready. It is possible they pick another padawan to learn from whichever vet they bring in. That could be J Williams. If they want someone close to starting they could pick S Williams.

    IND: Same situation as NOS. Of available DTs who can play nose, they pick the one closest to being ready to start. My guess is that would be S Williams. If he's gone, the pick here could be Jenkins.

    MIN: Will certainly pick a WR with one of their first rounders. The other pick should be on D. The D struggled against the pass. Yesterday, I thought that reinforcing the front 4 would be the way to go for them. But TP's CB pick made me analyze MIN a little more. That D ranks #5 in total sacks and #5 in sack yards lost. On the other hand they rank #27 on opp pass completion rate. This makes me believe that their issue is more in the secondary. I think TP nailed this one. They probably will pick a CB.

    GBP: Not many predict GBP to pick a DT. That said, if you watched their last playoff game, the front 5 looked really slow vs. SFF. If I have to guess which position they will target improving, it will be 33 yr old Pickett, who plays to the left of Raji. I anticipate they pick whichever highly rated DT's left that has the best motor. That would be Short.

    NWE: If they want a NT, they could be left with only J Williams vs Johnathan Jenkins on the board (B Williams if they want to risk waiting 'til 59). On how close to being ready to start, I think Jenkins has the advantage. For different reasons, they have very good upsides. Williams' upside is more related to what he's been able to do despite his rawness. Jenkins' upside has to do with the athleticism he shows at the weight he's at (345 lbs). In the history of the NFL, I think people have seen that the latter kind of upside is more rare. Like you, I like Jenkins here. Yet depending on where PIT goes, it's possible that only one of Jenkins and J Williams is available here.

    BTW, TP, nice mock overall.

     



    RESPONSE: Thanks Seattle.

    1.) NT: I agree that a team can't run a 3-4 without a first rate NT. But, I disagree with you about Hankins being the best of the bunch. This draft is cluttered with solid NT candidates. I see Jenkins as having more upside;

    2.) Jax: I'm with you. A guy like Jordan is a boom or bust type. CB Dee Milliner would be a wiser, and safer pick;

    3.) Oakland: Agreed. Floyd should be their guy. But I couldn't quibble if they chose Star Lotulelei, instead; 

    4.) Jets: Lotulelei should be a top 8 selection.

    5.) Tenn: Should be able to land Warmack. If Buffalo takes him, they could select Cooper. Both of these guys are interior OL blue-chippers;

    6.) New Orleans: Could take a NT...or could wait til second round. Again, this is a deep draft for NTs;    

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:

     

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

     

    In response to bredbru's comment:

     

    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:

    No QBs ??? That ain't happening....Geno Smith will be top 10.

    RESPONSE: I don't see Smith having top 10 talent. There's a better chance that Geno Smith will be the second coming of Akili Smith. But, it only takes one team to see him as the second coming. That team could be Philadelpia...if you believe Mel Kiper and his sources. Philly would be crazy to risk the 4th overall pick on Geno. We'll see what happens.  

     
    i see 3 possible qbs selected  in round 1

    RESPONSE: This is possible. I didn't include trade scenarios in my mock. But, I expect the Patriots to trade down from their 29th overall pick, to a QB needy team. Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, and/or E.J. Manual could go in round one. One of these guys will be selected at pick 29.

     
    I hope you're right about NE trading #29 and moving back into the second, but I have a feeling that it will be tough to find a team willing to move into the late first this year for any of these QBs.  Trading back would be the best case scenario for the Pats this year, but I bet we'll be stuck with #29.

         I don't see that happening, even though some say that this is the worst draft class of QBs in over a decade: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--2013-qb-draft-class-may-be-nfl-s-most-lowly-regarded-in-more-than-a-decade-060530895.html.

         It only takes one QB desperate team to fall in like with a QB. I can envision some team feeling the need to move up. For example, Arizona could trade their second and third rounders (38th and 69th overall picks) to the Pats to move up to #29, and take, say...Matt Barkley: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/2013-mock-draft-england-patriots-deliver-surprises-draft-205600692--nfl.html 

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    Mock drafts are great to read but generally speaking they are subjective and always have underlying motives in every case a mocker will have his team taking the guy he wants. So nothing new here. Great fun though the Patriots will trade out of the first round this year. Hope your guy is still availible when the Patriots pick in round two.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from garytx. Show garytx's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    The teams hungry for QBs are in the top ten spots.  I don't see Smith going in the top ten.  The talent is much, much better at other positions.  If Smith does not go in the top 10 his fall will be to the end of the round where a trade scenario looks pretty good.  Of course BB will listen to any offer.  A better player in things could be Seattle who is positioned a little higher and can very much afford to do a trade.  Indy, who is a spot above Seattle could be a player as well.  So I see a strong chance of the Pats missing out on trading out and it would seem to me to be about the QB spot more than any other position that teams would be wanting to trade up for. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    One good thing if this draft isn't that great is teams with a lot of picks won't be able to trade them into next year.  Purge the niners and the rams picks this year. That's what I think happened to BB switch the Ras I pick.  No one would trade so he had to use the pick.  

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    In response to sportsbozo1's comment:

     

    Mock drafts are great to read but generally speaking they are subjective and always have underlying motives in every case a mocker will have his team taking the guy he wants. So nothing new here. Great fun though the Patriots will trade out of the first round this year. Hope your guy is still availible when the Patriots pick in round two.

     



         Actually...no. I strive to be very objective when I do my mock. I don't do it as a "feel good" tool, to fantasize how wonderful the draft is going to be for the Patriots. You get the fanatasizing sort of thing when you visit the mbeaulieau07 draft thread...started 8 months ago. The more objective I can be, the better chance that I'll reach my goal...which is to see what prospects will, in reality, be available to the Patriots at pick #29.

     

         Based on my mock, I agree with you that the Patriots will trade down, out of the first round. Judging from my analysis below, the Pats' top pick will almost certainly be a defensive player: 

    I.) OFFENSE:

    1.) QBs: All QB prospects may be available at pick #29. A QB desperate team or two might venture to trade up into the first round, before pick #29. But, that would be a mistake. This QB draft class has been referred to as the worst in over a decade. There are no Matt Ryans, Andrew Lucks, or even Ryan Tannehills available this year. In other words, none of the QBs available appear to merit a first round grade. I don't see any of the QB needy teams...Kansas City, Jacksonville, Oakland, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Arizona, Buffalo, or the Jets...using a top 10 pick to reel in Geno Smith. Of course, it only takes one stupid team to overdraft a guy like Smith. Mel Kiper thinks that Philly may take him with the 4th overall pick...but adds that, if they don't, Smith could free-fall;

    2.) RBs: All RB prospects should be available to the atriots at pick #29. But, as is the case with the QB class, none of the available RBs merit a first round grade. I expect that the top RB prospect, Eddie Lacey from Alabama, will go somewhere in round 2...perhaps to the St. Louis Rams;

    3.) WRs: This is not a good WR draft class. The best of the bunch, Cordarelle Patterson, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Justin Hunter, will likely be gone by pick #29;

    4.) OL: The top four OTs, Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, and D. J. Fluker, will be gone by prior to pick #29. Ditto the top guards, Chance Warmack and Johnathan Cooper;

    II. DEFENSE:

    1.) DTs: The best of the bunch, Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei, Sheldon Richardson, and Sylvester Williams, will be gone. That leaves the Pats with this group from which to choose: Kawaan Short, Johnathan Hankins, John Jenkins, and Jessie Williams. If the Pats are enamored with any of these tackles...they could pounce at #29;

    2.) DEs:  Bjoern Werner, Datone Jones, Ezekial Ansah, and Barkevious Mingo will be gone by pick #29. Some remaining intriguing prospects are Alex Okafor, Margus Hunt, Tank Carradine, and Damontre Moore remain. But, none seem worthy of a first round pick. Okafor is a 4-3 DE. Hunt is 6'8" inch monster...but is raw, and over-aged (26). Carradine could be a one year wonder. Moore is the most intriguing of the bunch. But, maturity issues issues make him a boom or bust type player;

    3.) CBs: Desmond Trufant, Blidi Wren-Wilson, Darius Slay, Logan Ryan, and David Amerson should be available at #29. There's also a chance that D. J. Hayden might be there.  If Hayden is available, he may be selected. Otherwise...all of the above appear to be second round talent;

    4.) Safeties: Florida SS Matt Elam could be another Bob Sanders. But, like Sanders, he could prematurely wear down. Elam also has had multiple off-field, alcohol related issues. Johnathan Cyprien, who I had going to the 49ers at pick #31, bears watching. He could be groomed to take over in the next year or two from Adrian Wilson. 

         So...what will the Pats do? They'll either select from the group of Hayden, Cyprien, Short, or Jenkins...or trade down. One has to love the physical qualifications of Damontre Moore. I'd love to see if BB could get through to this kid.  

             

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

    One good thing if this draft isn't that great is teams with a lot of picks won't be able to trade them into next year.  Purge the niners and the rams picks this year. That's what I think happened to BB switch the Ras I pick.  No one would trade so he had to use the pick.  



         Not really. Ras-I had the physical make-up and skills to be a very good CB. Unfortunately, the guy can't shake being injury prone. BB knew he was taking a chance on Dowling. Buy, the Pats nneded a CB so badly that he rolled the dice on him. Too bad it came up snake-eyes. But, plenty of good players, such as DE Jabaal Sheard, LB Brooks Reed, QB Colin Kaepernick, ILB Akeem Ayers, OLB Bruce Carter, SS Rahim Moore, and WR Torrey Smith, were available.   

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from NOISE. Show NOISE's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    Solid TP!  I like DTs from Georgia ...I'm thinking they go DT too!  But yeah, I got a feeling they'll be trading out this year.....just what you said.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

    One good thing if this draft isn't that great is teams with a lot of picks won't be able to trade them into next year.  Purge the niners and the rams picks this year. That's what I think happened to BB switch the Ras I pick.  No one would trade so he had to use the pick.  



    Rams and Niners not being to move would be good.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pats-fan-2007. Show pats-fan-2007's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    Just watched a bunch of youtub of JOhn jenkins....not impressed as a 1st rd selection.

     

    Did not make many plays. Mainly a big body that's hard to move off the LOS.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

    In response to NOISE's comment:

    Solid TP!  I like DTs from Georgia ...I'm thinking they go DT too!  But yeah, I got a feeling they'll be trading out this year.....just what you said.




         Jenkins isn't a bad prospect. But, he doesn't represent full value for a first round pick. He's a second round talent. This draft class is low on blue chip talent/first round type talent...but is deep, in that there's lots of guys worthy of second-fourth round consideration. That said, the more I read about SS prospect Jonathan Cyprien from Florida International University, the more intrigued I am.   

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

         Here's a mock from ProFootballTalk.com: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/07/2013-pft-mock-draft-version-2/

     
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