Re: 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT
posted at 4/6/2013 11:37 AM EDT
In response to sportsbozo1's comment:
Mock drafts are great to read but generally speaking they are subjective and always have underlying motives in every case a mocker will have his team taking the guy he wants. So nothing new here. Great fun though the Patriots will trade out of the first round this year. Hope your guy is still availible when the Patriots pick in round two.
Actually...no. I strive to be very objective when I do my mock. I don't do it as a "feel good" tool, to fantasize how wonderful the draft is going to be for the Patriots. You get the fanatasizing sort of thing when you visit the mbeaulieau07 draft thread...started 8 months ago. The more objective I can be, the better chance that I'll reach my goal...which is to see what prospects will, in reality, be available to the Patriots at pick #29.
Based on my mock, I agree with you that the Patriots will trade down, out of the first round. Judging from my analysis below, the Pats' top pick will almost certainly be a defensive player:
1.) QBs: All QB prospects may be available at pick #29. A QB desperate team or two might venture to trade up into the first round, before pick #29. But, that would be a mistake. This QB draft class has been referred to as the worst in over a decade. There are no Matt Ryans, Andrew Lucks, or even Ryan Tannehills available this year. In other words, none of the QBs available appear to merit a first round grade. I don't see any of the QB needy teams...Kansas City, Jacksonville, Oakland, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Arizona, Buffalo, or the Jets...using a top 10 pick to reel in Geno Smith. Of course, it only takes one stupid team to overdraft a guy like Smith. Mel Kiper thinks that Philly may take him with the 4th overall pick...but adds that, if they don't, Smith could free-fall;
2.) RBs: All RB prospects should be available to the atriots at pick #29. But, as is the case with the QB class, none of the available RBs merit a first round grade. I expect that the top RB prospect, Eddie Lacey from Alabama, will go somewhere in round 2...perhaps to the St. Louis Rams;
3.) WRs: This is not a good WR draft class. The best of the bunch, Cordarelle Patterson, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Justin Hunter, will likely be gone by pick #29;
4.) OL: The top four OTs, Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, and D. J. Fluker, will be gone by prior to pick #29. Ditto the top guards, Chance Warmack and Johnathan Cooper;
1.) DTs: The best of the bunch, Sharrif Floyd, Star Lotulelei, Sheldon Richardson, and Sylvester Williams, will be gone. That leaves the Pats with this group from which to choose: Kawaan Short, Johnathan Hankins, John Jenkins, and Jessie Williams. If the Pats are enamored with any of these tackles...they could pounce at #29;
2.) DEs: Bjoern Werner, Datone Jones, Ezekial Ansah, and Barkevious Mingo will be gone by pick #29. Some remaining intriguing prospects are Alex Okafor, Margus Hunt, Tank Carradine, and Damontre Moore remain. But, none seem worthy of a first round pick. Okafor is a 4-3 DE. Hunt is 6'8" inch monster...but is raw, and over-aged (26). Carradine could be a one year wonder. Moore is the most intriguing of the bunch. But, maturity issues issues make him a boom or bust type player;
3.) CBs: Desmond Trufant, Blidi Wren-Wilson, Darius Slay, Logan Ryan, and David Amerson should be available at #29. There's also a chance that D. J. Hayden might be there. If Hayden is available, he may be selected. Otherwise...all of the above appear to be second round talent;
4.) Safeties: Florida SS Matt Elam could be another Bob Sanders. But, like Sanders, he could prematurely wear down. Elam also has had multiple off-field, alcohol related issues. Johnathan Cyprien, who I had going to the 49ers at pick #31, bears watching. He could be groomed to take over in the next year or two from Adrian Wilson.
So...what will the Pats do? They'll either select from the group of Hayden, Cyprien, Short, or Jenkins...or trade down. One has to love the physical qualifications of Damontre Moore. I'd love to see if BB could get through to this kid.