In response to bredbru's comment:

mb,

i see a number of mockers beginning to give one of one of my top receivers (and yours)  hopkins to the pats.

i still have elite pass rusher as #1 need and if not picked up in fa, its #1 in draft.

big cb and big wr (the rest of top 3 needs i see [players at these positions ive listed throughout this thread]).

Hopkins certainly makes a ton of sense from a talent/need perspective.

I have others rated ahead of him, but would be pretty excited to hear his name called for NE on Day 1.

In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

In response to mia76's comment:

Interesting numbers from PFF via Boston Globe:

QB rating against coverage by:

Spikes: 116.1 Mayo: 98.9 (82.7% completions)

Not sure where Hightower came in or if he had enough plays to be rated in pass coverage, but these numbers point to a big area of concern. Whether in man to man or zone the Pats underneath coverage was not good enough. So my question for the gurus here:

Anybody seeing prospects in the Pats range of picks for good coverage LBs. Or any FAs?

We seem to be at the start of an explosion in receiving TEs, and the continued use of RBs as receiving threats and the Pats need to counter that.

Did the article provide a league average for both QB rating against and completion % against for LB's?  Did they also provide yards per completion against?

Unfortunately, no. But for yardage/first downs/tds the QB rating would be taking that into account. I looked on the PFF site but couldn't find an article so it is probably premium content. And from a fan/no scientifc perspective I remember a lot of watching TE and RBs and underneath crossers running away from LBs after catching the fall or being takled just beyond the sticks.

On the - not wasting a high draft pick on a coverage LB - when 50+% you are playing in sub defenses, not sure how you define 'starter'. And with more west coast/passing offenses out there first down is just as likely to be a passing down. I think some teams played the pats almost exclusively in sub. And presumably a high draft pick would be a coverage LB with some 3 down ability, not too big a liability against the run.

In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

Watching some old Patriots games (SB2005) and looking at this year.  What stands out is the push from the DL and the edge rushing back then.  The other is outstanding safety play.  That was the year Troy Brown played CB and it seem Wilson and Harrison were everywhere always helping the CBs.  The DL always had a push and would always try to move the QB out of his comfort zone.  The Safeties didn't let anything get behind them.  Another was the chipping and hitting within 5 yards of the LOS.  Every play some one was doing that.  

With that, I think a Safety and DT/DE will have to be #1 and#2 priority either in FA or Draft. I know some people want a WR, but I think the impact will be greater if these two are filled with quality players. This defense is very young, but not far off.

In the first 3 rounds in the Patriots range:(no order on players)

SAFETY                             DT                             DE or OLB34

Reid                              Jenkins                       Montgomery

Elam                             Williams, S                  Hunt

Thomas                         Williams, B                  Goodman

Rambo                          Short                          Carradine, Tank

Jefferson                                                         Jenkins, B

Cyprien                                                           Simon, J

There is probably more, I'll keep looking.  There will also be risers and fallers, for sure.

I agree pretty much with your assessment.  However, I would not rule out us restricting Chung at the 2nd Round level and hoping someone takes him.  The cost wouldn't be that much ($1.8MM+/-) so if we keep him we have McCourty, Wilson, Chung, Greggory and Ebner at S and that would be a crowded field.  If that happens, I would put a higher emphasis on CB.  The draft is pretty deep at CB so a good player can be had at 61 and perhaps even at 93.  If we assume Talib is back, he and Dennard would appear to be the favorites to start but with Dowling always hurt and the rest could be let go, using a 3rd on CB makes the most sense to me.

As for DT, if a good one is there at 29, fine but I doubt there will be a good one at 61 so 61 would seem to be the place to go WR.  We do seem to be looking for a taller WR given we played roster tag with Gregg Salas for much of the year before finally settling on Kamar Aiken, another 6-2 WR. 

With Edelman likely back and Ebert in the wings, we might not go slot if we tag Welker again.  So, I would look for a tall WR to be taken somewhere in the draft and the 2nd round seems like the best value spot.  I guess WR/CB could be interchanged, one in the 2nd, the other in the 3rd.

What we do with our first pick is the interesting thing to me.  DL is a good guess if one of those studs you mention are there.  But, I would not rule out LB.  We are thin there with only Mayo, Hightower and Spikes as legitimate starters.  Fletcher should be back to back up Spikes.  Jeff Tarpinian was recently signed to a future's contract but that's about it unless you count Ninko and Cunningham as elephant type LBs.  I can see the need for depth at all LB positions.  It would be interesting if an Ogletree or Te'o are there as I think either would be hard to pass on at 29.

i don't see NE drafting a "coverage LB" in the first 3 rounds. if you take a LB in round 1 or 2 especially then that guy better project as a starter. with that said i like ogletree and if NE did take him i think that would mean they don't intent on resigning spikes when his contract is up after the 2013 season.

Faucetman - good point about Spikes and I will be interested to see how Hightower develops, but he  has started as a '2 down' LB as well.

I know everyone wants more sacks/pressures, but if you look at the numbers the Pats were very respectable in that respect - Baltimore had the same number in 2012 and SF had one more than the Pats. And the Pats gave up significantly fewer than either of those teams 27 vs 37 vs 41.

Good offenses have a lot of success handling defensive lines no matter how good they are. SF got zero sacks against NE and in the two games with Balt the teams each had 2 sacks. I would say coverage and turnovers were much more important than pass rush in those games.

Below is my updated and expanded Big 40, new additions highlighted in Red:

Rd 1

DT- Jesse Williams

DT- John Hankins

S- Matt Elam

OG- Jonathan Cooper

DT- Sylvester Williams

WR- DeAndre Hopkins

Rd 1-2

CB- Logan Ryan

CB- Desmond Trufant

OL- Barrett Jones

CB- Xavier Rhodes

DT- John Jenkins

Rd 2

DE/OLB- Tank Carradine

WR- Quinton Patton

CB- Jordan Poyer

C/OG- Travis Frederick

WR- Robert Woods

Rd 2-3

S- Jon Cyprien

CB- Jamar Taylor

WR/PR- Ace Sanders

WR- Stedman Bailey

WR- Markus Wheaton

LB- Kiko Alonso

Rd 3

DE/OLB- Lavar Edwards

S- Bacarri Rambo

S- Shawn Williams

DE/OLB- Michael Buchanan

WR- Ryan Swope

OG- Brian Winters

CB- Darius Slay

Rd 4-7

S- Josh Evans

WR- Conner Vernon

S- Zeke Motta

DL- Quinton Dial

DL- Kapron Lewis-Moore

DT- Josh Boyd

TE- Travis Kelce

S- Cooper Taylor

RB- Spencer Ware

WR- TJ Moe

DT- Anthony White

In response to SilverSun's comment:

I like the following Pats draft:

1st - Margus Hunt SMU DE Great size/speed for pass rush help, athletic and could develop like JJ Watt

2nd - J Willams or Kawann Short - DT - help for Big Vince makes Kyle Love a rotational reserve

3rd - Connor Vernon - WR Duke - Can't remember his name but seen him play and he has size, hands, moves, and good - not great - speed

7th - Randall Mackey - Ole Miss - versitile has played QB, RB, and WR - quick with good hands and can run with it after the catch

Pats must resign Talib, SeaBass, and seek help at Safety in free agency. Hopefully Marcus Cannon continues to develop and can repace Connelly next year.

MB - for your next year prospects - don't sleep on Donte Moncrief - Ole Miss WR destined for greatness.  Has size, speed, leaping ability - 10 TDs in SEC as a Soph this year!

I kind of like this but I do have a couple of things.

1) Hunt is very behind where Watt was at the same point in their development. Watt was a polished pass rusher with multiple moves and a ton of strength. Hunt on the other hand doesn't have many rushing moves and for his size could stand to add additional strength. Many times he was pushed vertically early and lost all levergae. He needs to add a lot of core and upper body strength to prevent being stood up with such a long torso.

Though Hunt has potential to have Watt type of upside he is still a long ways away from that. It's one reason he's projected everywhere from the back of the 1st to the 4th range, simply because he is so raw teams question if he could completely develop. Not sure if I'd take Hunt that early instead of targeting a more polished DL at that point. If they move back to the mid 2nd to gather picks and Hunt was there then him or Short would be my pick

2) I don't see Short making it past the 40's. I highly doubt he make it to the Pats 2nd round pick but J Williams could be there and much like Hunt he is very raw. Tons of potential, which is why MB loves him, but he's another in a long line of late to come football players that tend to be boom or bust. This kid has the physical abilities to be a monster at the line but has really disappointed this year in getting behind the line. He's mainly plugged gaps and held his own this year but never took that step to the next level which many expected. It lead some, including myself, to wonder if he's reached his rushing ceiling and will turn out to be a run stopping demon but be lacking in the pass rush. Late 2nd is a great place for him.

3) I remember Vernon, solid overall player but nothing special. He reminds me a lot of Ebert truthfully. He'd be a late day two early day 3 type of kid but since we don't have picks in those ranges if you want him then the 3rd is where you'd have to take him. IMO CB goes a lot deeper than WR this year so if I had to take someone in the 3rd I'd rather roll the dice on a CB but to each their own.

4) I like the 7th rounder. Versitility gives BB wet dreams at night. Are you thinking this kid could be like an Edelman, without the injures? Who else are you looking at in the 7th this year since we have two? 

In response to PatsEng's comment:

In response to SilverSun's comment:

I like the following Pats draft:

1st - Margus Hunt SMU DE Great size/speed for pass rush help, athletic and could develop like JJ Watt

2nd - J Willams or Kawann Short - DT - help for Big Vince makes Kyle Love a rotational reserve

3rd - Connor Vernon - WR Duke - Can't remember his name but seen him play and he has size, hands, moves, and good - not great - speed

7th - Randall Mackey - Ole Miss - versitile has played QB, RB, and WR - quick with good hands and can run with it after the catch

Pats must resign Talib, SeaBass, and seek help at Safety in free agency. Hopefully Marcus Cannon continues to develop and can repace Connelly next year.

MB - for your next year prospects - don't sleep on Donte Moncrief - Ole Miss WR destined for greatness.  Has size, speed, leaping ability - 10 TDs in SEC as a Soph this year!

I kind of like this but I do have a couple of things.

1) Hunt is very behind where Watt was at the same point in their development. Watt was a polished pass rusher with multiple moves and a ton of strength. Hunt on the other hand doesn't have many rushing moves and for his size could stand to add additional strength. Many times he was pushed vertically early and lost all levergae. He needs to add a lot of core and upper body strength to prevent being stood up with such a long torso.

Though Hunt has potential to have Watt type of upside he is still a long ways away from that. It's one reason he's projected everywhere from the back of the 1st to the 4th range, simply because he is so raw teams question if he could completely develop. Not sure if I'd take Hunt that early instead of targeting a more polished DL at that point. If they move back to the mid 2nd to gather picks and Hunt was there then him or Short would be my pick

2) I don't see Short making it past the 40's. I highly doubt he make it to the Pats 2nd round pick but J Williams could be there and much like Hunt he is very raw. Tons of potential, which is why MB loves him, but he's another in a long line of late to come football players that tend to be boom or bust. This kid has the physical abilities to be a monster at the line but has really disappointed this year in getting behind the line. He's mainly plugged gaps and held his own this year but never took that step to the next level which many expected. It lead some, including myself, to wonder if he's reached his rushing ceiling and will turn out to be a run stopping demon but be lacking in the pass rush. Late 2nd is a great place for him.

3) I remember Vernon, solid overall player but nothing special. He reminds me a lot of Ebert truthfully. He'd be a late day two early day 3 type of kid but since we don't have picks in those ranges if you want him then the 3rd is where you'd have to take him. IMO CB goes a lot deeper than WR this year so if I had to take someone in the 3rd I'd rather roll the dice on a CB but to each their own.

4) I like the 7th rounder. Versitility gives BB wet dreams at night. Are you thinking this kid could be like an Edelman, without the injures? Who else are you looking at in the 7th this year since we have two? 

In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

In response to bredbru's comment:

mb,

i see a number of mockers beginning to give one of one of my top receivers (and yours)  hopkins to the pats.

i still have elite pass rusher as #1 need and if not picked up in fa, its #1 in draft.

big cb and big wr (the rest of top 3 needs i see [players at these positions ive listed throughout this thread]).

Hopkins certainly makes a ton of sense from a talent/need perspective.

I have others rated ahead of him, but would be pretty excited to hear his name called for NE on Day 1.

i thought i saw you post you wanted hopkins as yoru #1 wr for pats. has that changed?

In response to PatsEng's comment:

In response to SilverSun's comment:

I like the following Pats draft:

1st - Margus Hunt SMU DE Great size/speed for pass rush help, athletic and could develop like JJ Watt

2nd - J Willams or Kawann Short - DT - help for Big Vince makes Kyle Love a rotational reserve

3rd - Connor Vernon - WR Duke - Can't remember his name but seen him play and he has size, hands, moves, and good - not great - speed

7th - Randall Mackey - Ole Miss - versitile has played QB, RB, and WR - quick with good hands and can run with it after the catch

Pats must resign Talib, SeaBass, and seek help at Safety in free agency. Hopefully Marcus Cannon continues to develop and can repace Connelly next year.

MB - for your next year prospects - don't sleep on Donte Moncrief - Ole Miss WR destined for greatness.  Has size, speed, leaping ability - 10 TDs in SEC as a Soph this year!

I kind of like this but I do have a couple of things.

1) Hunt is very behind where Watt was at the same point in their development. Watt was a polished pass rusher with multiple moves and a ton of strength. Hunt on the other hand doesn't have many rushing moves and for his size could stand to add additional strength. Many times he was pushed vertically early and lost all levergae. He needs to add a lot of core and upper body strength to prevent being stood up with such a long torso.

Though Hunt has potential to have Watt type of upside he is still a long ways away from that. It's one reason he's projected everywhere from the back of the 1st to the 4th range, simply because he is so raw teams question if he could completely develop. Not sure if I'd take Hunt that early instead of targeting a more polished DL at that point. If they move back to the mid 2nd to gather picks and Hunt was there then him or Short would be my pick

2) I don't see Short making it past the 40's. I highly doubt he make it to the Pats 2nd round pick but J Williams could be there and much like Hunt he is very raw. Tons of potential, which is why MB loves him, but he's another in a long line of late to come football players that tend to be boom or bust. This kid has the physical abilities to be a monster at the line but has really disappointed this year in getting behind the line. He's mainly plugged gaps and held his own this year but never took that step to the next level which many expected. It lead some, including myself, to wonder if he's reached his rushing ceiling and will turn out to be a run stopping demon but be lacking in the pass rush. Late 2nd is a great place for him.

3) I remember Vernon, solid overall player but nothing special. He reminds me a lot of Ebert truthfully. He'd be a late day two early day 3 type of kid but since we don't have picks in those ranges if you want him then the 3rd is where you'd have to take him. IMO CB goes a lot deeper than WR this year so if I had to take someone in the 3rd I'd rather roll the dice on a CB but to each their own.

4) I like the 7th rounder. Versitility gives BB wet dreams at night. Are you thinking this kid could be like an Edelman, without the injures? Who else are you looking at in the 7th this year since we have two? 

PatsEng, I like a couple of guys who I think would be worth drafting with our second 7th.  DB Demetric McCray had a fine season at Appalachian State in Virginia and has good size, speed at 6'1" and 185 lbs.  I also like Ole Miss DT Gil Pena, a NY kid, who had a strong year for the Rebels  at 6'4" 317 lbs.

In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

Below is my updated and expanded Big 40, new additions highlighted in Red:

Rd 1

DT- Jesse Williams

DT- John Hankins

S- Matt Elam

OG- Jonathan Cooper

DT- Sylvester Williams

WR- DeAndre Hopkins

Rd 1-2

CB- Logan Ryan

CB- Desmond Trufant

OL- Barrett Jones

CB- Xavier Rhodes

DT- John Jenkins

Rd 2

DE/OLB- Tank Carradine

WR- Quinton Patton

CB- Jordan Poyer

C/OG- Travis Frederick

WR- Robert Woods

Rd 2-3

S- Jon Cyprien

CB- Jamar Taylor

WR/PR- Ace Sanders

WR- Stedman Bailey

WR- Markus Wheaton

LB- Kiko Alonso

Rd 3

DE/OLB- Lavar Edwards

S- Bacarri Rambo

S- Shawn Williams

DE/OLB- Michael Buchanan

WR- Ryan Swope

OG- Brian Winters

CB- Darius Slay

Rd 4-7

S- Josh Evans

WR- Conner Vernon

S- Zeke Motta

DL- Quinton Dial

DL- Kapron Lewis-Moore

DT- Josh Boyd

TE- Travis Kelce

S- Cooper Taylor

RB- Spencer Ware

WR- TJ Moe

DT- Anthony White

he mb, 

 i see you added hankins, do you feel hes falling and may make it to end of rd 1?

do see hopkins is still your #1 wr to pats

i see syl williams, dont knwo when he got on your rd 1 list, do you know when you added him (mine coulple mo)

stud pass rusher, big cb, big wr still my 3 top needs

adding ss cooper taylor, 6, 4" 229 lbs 4.45 40  out of richmond to my 7th round possibilities

brugler on:

With his size and strength, he is an enforcer against the run but he also showed the range and athleticism to be effective in coverage as well as the football intelligence to digest a lot of coaching all at once. Taylor routinely drew praise from the coaching staff during drills and often made the calls to get his teammates in proper position. His NFL draft arrow is pointing up after this week, creating some buzz among scouts. - Dane Brugler

What's the deal with Travis Long, LB/DL Washington State?  He had 9 sacks in 11 games.  I like his size, 6-4, 245.  He's a bit lanky so he should be able to bulk up.  I see that he's listed as a 3/4 rounder.  He's coming off a knee so not sure if he'll work out at the Combine.  But he is a natural pass rusher.

What's the deal with Travis Long, LB/DL Washington State?  He had 9 sacks in 11 games.  I like his size, 6-4, 245.  He's a bit lanky so he should be able to bulk up.  I see that he's listed as a 3/4 rounder.  He's coming off a knee so not sure if he'll work out at the Combine.  But he is a natural pass rusher.

RE: Ogletree:

If this kid is around 245 at the combine, there should be some serious discussion on him as a Rd 1 option in that hybrid S/LB type player.  Not saying they would or should take him that high, heck, I don't even think he'll be available at 29... but he does present a skill set (size/speed/former S) that will help combat today's evolving NFL offenses... as others have mentioned.

At the end of the day, I think they hope to utilize Dane Fletcher (whom they just resigned) in this capacity.

In response to Faucetman's comment:

What's the deal with Travis Long, LB/DL Washington State?  He had 9 sacks in 11 games.  I like his size, 6-4, 245.  He's a bit lanky so he should be able to bulk up.  I see that he's listed as a 3/4 rounder.  He's coming off a knee so not sure if he'll work out at the Combine.  But he is a natural pass rusher.

What's up faucet?  Nice find with Long.  He is one of my Cougs and I have seen every game of his career.  Really a high energy pass rusher who will give 100 percent on every play.  You are right, he will need to add 15-20lbs to be effective at the NFL level, but he definitely has the frame to do it while keeping his explosiveness. He did suffer a knee injury this year, but from what I have read  it will not keep him out of spring workouts.  He may not be ready for the combine, but likely will participate in the WSU pro day.  I love his upside, and he may be had sometime on Day 3.  A possible 7th round gem.  I believe his game is similar to that of Brooks Reed coming out a couple years ago.