Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***
posted at 2/28/2013 2:07 PM EST
I think a strong case can be made to draft Eifert and even possibly Ertz at 29 if they are available, especially Eifert. The importance of the TE position in NE and the success they have had is well documented but here is the data behind this.
In 2011 Gronk played in all 16 regular season games and Hernandez played in 14. Combined they were:
169/2,237/24. The Pats went 13-3 and went to the SB
In 2012 Gronk played in 11 regular season games and Hernandez played in 10. Combined they were:
106/1,273/16. The Pats went 12-4 and lost the AFCCG
That is a lot of lost production. 63 catches, nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs. Counting the play-offs the two stud TEs only had stats together in 4 of the 18 games.
In games where only one of these TEs had stats they averaged 6.1/74.9/.9
In games where both had stats these TEs averaged 10.5/107/1.5
The Pats were 10-4 where only one TE played and were 3-1 when having both. Each TE played 7 games essentially without the other, meaning the other either didn't play or got hurt and left without producing any stats. Production was similar for both except for TDs.
With just Hern: 44/464/3, team scored 225 points and went 5-2
With just Gronk: 41/585/10, team scored 272 points and went 5-2
First, there is no way Eifert gets past Atlanta at 30. He probably doesn't make it to 29 but if he does, I think we could do a lot of cool things with Eifert. First, he can fill in for Gronk should he go down again. Second, we could run a lot of three TE sets with Hern playing as the H or lined up outside as a jacked up WR. The mismatches having all 3 stud TEs on the field at the same time would be incredible. Because Hern can play WR, drafting Eifert would be like drafting one of the big WRs but with the ability to be insurance for either Gronk or Hern going down again.
The game is all about mis-matches. As shown with the stats, having both Gronk and Hern on the field together, the production out of the position explodes. Brady is more of a possession, short range passer preferring to move the chains rather than going for the quick strike downfield. I think these guys would just be a nightmare for LBs and Ss to try to cover. I can see all kinds of creative ways to use them together and I'm Josh could find new ways too. Thoughts?