Flying 20 - time between the 20 yrd to 40 yrd  during a 40yrd dash.  Has anyone found times for receivers or CBs?  IMHO,  I think it is a useful metric to show the rate of acceleration resulting in seperation. WRs can blow the top off but CBs can show recovery.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/

3. Introducing the flying 20 and the challenge in measuring reactive quickness for receivers. Building off Pioli’s point on the combine, and the measurement like a 40-yard dash, Marathe introduced those in the audience to the flying 20. We always talk about Jerry Rice, for example. Jerry Rice had a very average 40 time, but what we found, something that really helps correlate to performance is what we call the flying 20 -- the time between the 20 and the 40, intuitively that is separation speed.  Jerry Rice has one of the fastest flying 20s  of all time. Everyone still looks at the 40-yard dash as the measurement of a wide receiver’s speed when there is some hidden value there in different places. That sparked a thought from Pioli about how challenging it is to project receivers from college to the NFL because of press coverage. €œI love the flying 20 too, which is something we looked at. And also the first 10 [yards]. But there are other elements that come into it that can blow both of those things up, unfortunately, which is certain receivers who have never faced press coverage. It does not matter how fast they run, their playing speed, they cannot get off the line of scrimmage. So there is this other element that comes in. The other thing is that a big part of separation has to do with just close-space quickness and/or strength. The Wes Welkers, the Troy Browns, the Wayne Chrebets, the smaller, undersized guys who have some short-area quickness where they™re covered like a blanket but, boom, all of a sudden they can create separation. Trying to piece all that together, that is the fun part.€

 

Pioli had one of the best lines of the panel when the topic came to quarterbacks.

 

What is the best approach, through analytics, when evaluating/drafting a quarterback?

 

I'd say draft one in the sixth round and hope for the best," Pioli cracked.

We will have a bit more from this panel on Saturday as well.

 

Follow up on flying 20

Here is a link to Ohio State doing flying 20s

http://www.stack.com/video/1753231968/Ohio-State-Football-Flying-20s/

If I had to pick 1 guy today who I think is most likely to be Belichick's first round pick this year (assuming that we stay put at 29, which is far from a certainty...) I would say that it would be Datone Jones from UCLA.  He is a very impressive player when you watch him, more so than I realized from watching Pac-12 games this year.  This guy has the strength to be effective in run support, yet is well suited to get after the passer as well.  He is a very versatile player who can line up all across the D-Line and be effective from anywhere, a trait that we all know that BB would covet.  Based on what I have seen, Jones is likely to be available late first round.

He is a good possibility Wazzu. I like him too. There are going to be some tough choices at 29. i think there will be a ton of talent there and it convinces bb to trade back. I think our first selection will be in the 40's , and it will be Darius slay. Something tells me he is grabbing a cb first again and will pass up on all the DT talent we keep talking about. I don't think he goes to the dline until the 2nd pick in the second round...maybe even the 3rd round. Maybe this is the year he grabs a wr late in round 2....Swope anyone? He would be Lloyd's replacement, save the pats 4.9m, give them a vertical threat, and add youth to a position of need. Bb then grabs 1-2 FA wr's. in the end, I don't think Lloyd Will be here, and, possibly even Talib.

In response to PatsLifer's comment:

Good ideas, Lifer.  I think that the best case scenario would be to trade back into the 40s, but I'm a little worried that we won't have a trading partner in that range. 

In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:

i dotn know abotu most likely but i agree with you and hes in the group of pass rushers id like to land

In response to Faucetman's comment:

:)

i said that all year,

and then had rhodes as a pick too :) unique big press man (ie seattle defense we need to coverrt to).

but if we dotn get a legit pass rusher in fa, thats #1 need in draft for me even over getting a 6 3" 215 stud cb

In response to bredbru's comment:
[QUOTE]

In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:

 

If I had to pick 1 guy today who I think is most likely to be Belichick's first round pick this year (assuming that we stay put at 29, which is far from a certainty...) I would say that it would be Datone Jones from UCLA.  He is a very impressive player when you watch him, more so than I realized from watching Pac-12 games this year.  This guy has the strength to be effective in run support, yet is well suited to get after the passer as well.  He is a very versatile player who can line up all across the D-Line and be effective from anywhere, a trait that we all know that BB would covet.  Based on what I have seen, Jones is likely to be available late first round.

 

i dotn know abotu most likely but i agree with you and hes in the group of pass rushers id like to land

 

Hey Bredbru, don't walk away from Margus Hunt of SMU now; I know you like his game and he could be a throwback to a Ted Hendricks type player on the edge big, fast, athletic, and able to knock down passes and get pressur/sacks.  How did you like Hunt's combine, Bredbru?

In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

 

In response to Godvernment's comment:

 

National Football Post's Russ Lande writes Florida State CB Xavier Rhodes wasn't impressive in interviews.

"Rhodes struggled throughout the drills looking upright, stiff and mechanical trying to flip hips and change directions," Lande writes. "Additionally, he battled the ball nearly every time and did not show the hands to be counted on to make plays when he gets the chance at the next level. Lastly, Rhodes interviews were not impressive." Rhodes is one of 10 players Lande lists who struggled at the combine.

Kids gonna make a good living punching WR's at the LOS, but the above is certainly consistent with the belief that he's not a good fit for teams that predominantly operate in zone (i.e. NE).  I have him on my board because I like the idea of BB bringing in a kid that can provide a skill set that they don't currently have, but that would also signal a bit of a shift in defensive philosophy.

 

 

I'm looking at Rhodes as a possible SS who can match up on TEs if he doesn't make it as a corner.  He's big and physical.  If Denard and Talib are back, our big need is at strong safety and we would have position flexibility.  Chung may not be restricted and if he is, it would be at the 2nd round level.  I think we keep Rhodes on our board.

 

In response to SilverSun's comment:

Jones might not be there at 29 but perhaps Bjoern Warner is slipping?  Mayock has him dropping to the end of the 1st, early 2nd. 

I like Hunt a lot although he is very raw.  He had trouble setting the edge in the Sr. Bowl but he has huge upside.  I could see him bulking up and could be 43 DE or 34 DE in a few years.  I can see a lot of batted balls.  I love him as a book end to Jones coming off the right tackle.  Let him learn behind Ninkovich for a year and work him into the D.  He should be there at 29 or perhaps with a slight trade back.

Balt at 32 is most likely going ILB, either Te-o or Ogletree.

SF at 31 is probably going CB or DT and there will be plenty of options there

Atl at 30 is most likely going TE but with their recent cuts could target a DE or CB

So we could trade back, especially if Smith or Barkley are still on the board as there are a bunch of teams at the top who need a QB but might feel neither are worthy of a top 10 pick which is how I feel.

 

In response to bredbru's comment:

Was just reading up on Reiss' blog.  Tagging Talib is starting to make the most sense.  We lock him up for $10.8MM then try to get a long-term deal done to aleivate that hit.  Word is Pats are 9th in most cap space available so this would be a good insurance policy. 

If we lose Welker, I would have to move Tavon Austin to the top of my board.

If we lose Vollmer, we have Cannon who should be experienced enough to start but there are other F/A options at RT and we could always address in the 2nd round.  Kyle Long if he's there.

We could then use our 3rd on a CB but I would not be surprised to see us add a F/A CB. 

In response to Faucetman's comment:

 

In response to bredbru's comment:

 

In response to Faucetman's comment:

 

In response to seattlepat70's comment:

 

In response to Faucetman's comment:

 

Guys,

I think a strong case can be made to draft Eifert and even possibly Ertz at 29 if they are available, especially Eifert.  The importance of the TE position in NE and the success they have had is well documented but here is the data behind this.

In 2011 Gronk played in all 16 regular season games and Hernandez played in 14.  Combined they were:

169/2,237/24.  The Pats went 13-3 and went to the SB

In 2012 Gronk played in 11 regular season games and Hernandez played in 10.  Combined they were:

106/1,273/16.  The Pats went 12-4 and lost the AFCCG

That is a lot of lost production. 63 catches, nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs.  Counting the play-offs the two stud TEs only had stats together in 4 of the 18 games. 

In games where only one of these TEs had stats they averaged 6.1/74.9/.9

In games where both had stats these TEs averaged 10.5/107/1.5

The Pats were 10-4 where only one TE played and were 3-1 when having both.  Each TE played 7 games essentially without the other, meaning the other either didn't play or got hurt and left without producing any stats.  Production was similar for both except for TDs.

With just Hern: 44/464/3, team scored 225 points and went 5-2

With just Gronk: 41/585/10, team scored 272 points and went 5-2

First, there is no way Eifert gets past Atlanta at 30.  He probably doesn't make it to 29 but if he does, I think we could do a lot of cool things with Eifert.  First, he can fill in for Gronk should he go down again.  Second, we could run a lot of three TE sets with Hern playing as the H or lined up outside as a jacked up WR.  The mismatches having all 3 stud TEs on the field at the same time would be incredible.  Because Hern can play WR, drafting Eifert would be like drafting one of the big WRs but with the ability to be insurance for either Gronk or Hern going down again. 

The game is all about mis-matches.  As shown with the stats, having both Gronk and Hern on the field together, the production out of the position explodes.  Brady is more of a possession, short range passer preferring to move the chains rather than going for the quick strike downfield.  I think these guys would just be a nightmare for LBs and Ss to try to cover.  I can see all kinds of creative ways to use them together and I'm Josh could find new ways too.  Thoughts?

 

Looks like everyone had a different version of what I wanted to say in response.

 

I look at it from a per position diminishing returns perspective. With Gronk, Hern, Ballard, I just don't see a lot of additional value that another TE brings, regardless of talent level.

On the CB side, I feel, they are just starting to figure things out. Talib showed us (or may better to say teased us) that secondary is a few moves from getting fixed. I really would like to get Talib back, to reduce fit uncertainties that they have to face withe other CBs. That said, I believe they should add more CBs to the stable for two, perhaps inter-related, reasons.

1) Talib is not exactly a poster child for durability. Neither is Ras. Dennard also showed signs he could potentially be injured to (hamstring, if I remember right). These three are talented, but it looks like the Pats need four of these talented CBs that they could rotate on the injury list... er, active list.

2) More and more teams are passing more and more. That adds stress to the secondary, so if the CBs are already experiencing injuries, I imagine it could be worse in the coming few seasons.

You could think the same on the interior DL side. You have VW. Next to him, you have Love and Deaderick, who I feel are close to being but not quite starting caliber. 

This is where I am coming from when thinking of who the Pats should pick on the first two rounds.

 

There are a couple of corners I like who could be there at 29, Rhodes and Trufant.  But I'm sick of spending 1-2 round picks on DBs then watching them bust.  We've had so many of them recently - Meriweather, Wheatley, Butler, Dowling (so far), Chung, possibly Wilson (too soon to tell) and you could say McCourty appears to be a bust at corner. That is a lot of 1-2 round picks wasted!!!  When you consider that our starters at the end of the year were a free agent and 7th round pick it makes me NOT trust BB to draft DBs high.

 

 

:)

 

i said that all year,

and then had rhodes as a pick too :) unique big press man (ie seattle defense we need to coverrt to).

but if we dotn get a legit pass rusher in fa, thats #1 need in draft for me even over getting a 6 3" 215 stud cb

 

Was just reading up on Reiss' blog.  Tagging Talib is starting to make the most sense.  We lock him up for $10.8MM then try to get a long-term deal done to aleivate that hit.  Word is Pats are 9th in most cap space available so this would be a good insurance policy. 

 

If we lose Welker, I would have to move Tavon Austin to the top of my board.

If we lose Vollmer, we have Cannon who should be experienced enough to start but there are other F/A options at RT and we could always address in the 2nd round.  Kyle Long if he's there.

We could then use our 3rd on a CB but I would not be surprised to see us add a F/A CB. 

 

I agree that tagging Talib makes the most sense, allowing them to retain a player that clearly made the D better, with a relatively low risk deal.

 

A couple to Rd 3 CB's to keep on your radar are Houston's DJ Hayden (who I have in Rd 2, but he is coming back from a freak injury that almost cost him his life), who'd come at a relative bargain, IMO and UConn's Dwayne Gratz... another size/speed/quicks/strength kid.

The thought of Austin is intriguing, though another alternative would be to sign an outside WR like Brian Hartline in FA, then draft a slot kid like Swope or Ace Sanders on Day 2... maybe double up on WR with an other Welker-type player in Mizzou's TJ Moe who won't beat you in a sprint, but is the quick footed, sudden, COD type that they like.

Hey MB,  your thoughts on dee milliner from Bama?  The cover corner....I think the kid is special, and will go top 10.  I know BB has the inside track to Bama players now, but what if Saban said to him, this kid is beyond exceptional Bill, gotta have him....

Im not even saying go up n get him, b/c it wud take a lot to jump that high and pats don't have too many picks this yr....I see pats falling out of first rd this yr to gain some picks back.

 

just curious about your take?

 

 

In response to NOISE's comment:

Hey, NOISE,

Really like Milliner, had him on my radar last year from watching film of Barron, etc... and he sure looked the part again this year...  Looks like a complete CB to me, good size, can run, moves well and very physical... Top CB in this class and one of the best players available.

I agree that he's gone in the Top 10, so the chances of him landing in Foxboro are highly unlikely.

A trade back or two is very likely IMO, yeah.

My list at the moment... (number grades are NFL's not mine)

Corner Backs

1. **Dee Milliner**
2. Xavier Rhodes (86)
3. Desmond Trufant (84)
4. Johnathan Banks (84)
5. Robert Alford (81)
6. Jamar Taylor (79)
7. Jordan Poyer (74)
8. Leon McFadden (80)
9. Blidi Wreh-Wilson (77)
10. B.W. Webb (74)
11. David Amerson (74)
12. Logan Ryan (69)
13. Darius Slay (71)
14. D.J. Hayden (66) (+)
15. Tyrann Mathieu (x)

    Defensive Ends

1. **Dion Jordan (88)**
2. **Bjoern Werner (90)**
3. **Ezekial Ansah (89)**
4. Cornellius Tank Carradine (85)
5. **Barkevious Mingo (92)**
6. Alex Okafor (85)
7. Margus Hunt (82)
8. Datone Jones (85)
9. Demontre Moore (89)
10. Sam Montgomery (81)
11. Walter Stewart (61) (+)
12. William Gholston (74)
13. Ty Powell (68)
14. Devin Taylor (62)

    Defensive Tackles

1. **Star Lotulelei (+)**
2. **Shariff Floyd (90)**
3. **Sheldon Richardson (90)**
4. Jesse Williams (85)
5. Jonathan Hankins (88)
6. Kawaan Short (80)
7. Sylvester Williams (80)
8. John Jenkins (81)
9. Brandon Williams (73)
10. Akeem Spence (66)
11. Cory Grissom (69)
12. Nick Williams (52)
13. Jared Smith (52)

    Safeties

1. **Kenny Vaccarro (87)**
2. Matt Elam (80)
3. Jonathan Cyprien (84)
4. D.J. Swearinger (81)
5. Eric Reid (87)
6. Shawn Williams (74)
7. Phillip Thomas (74)
8. Josh Evans (68)
9. Shamarko Thomas (69)
10. Zeke Motta (71)
11. Earl Wolff (63)
12. Tony Jefferson (73)
13. Bacarri Rambo (61)

    Wide Receivers

1. **Cordarrelle Patterson (F) (90)**
2. **Keenan Allen (P) (86)**
3. DeAndre Hopkins (F) (87)
4. Tavon Austin (S) (85)
5. Quinton Patton (F) (83)
6. Justin Hunter (P) (81)
7. Markus Wheaton (S) (81)
8. Terrance Williams (F) (83)
9. Stedman Bailey (S) (79)
10. Robert Woods (F) (83)
11. Da'Rick Rogers (P) (74)
12. Chris Harper (F) (68)
13. Ryan Swope (F) (67)
14. Josh Boyce (72)
15. Aaron Dobson (P) (71)
16. Cobi Hamilton (F) (72)

    Offensive Lineman

1. **Luke Joekel OT (95)**
2. **Chance Warmack OG (95)**
3. **Jonathan Cooper OG (86)**
4. **Eric Fisher OT (91)**
5. **Lane Johnson OT (86)**
6. Barrett Jones C/OG (85)
7. Brennan Williams OT (71)
8. Larry Warford OG (85)
9. DJ Fluker OT (85)
10. Travis Frederick C/OG (78)
11. Brian Schwenke C/OG (71)
12. David Quessenberry OT (69)
13. Terron Armstead OT (73)
14. Jeff Baca (60)

    Tight Ends

1. Tyler Eifert (83)

  Running Back

1. Christine Michael (71)
2. Knile Davis (65)

  Linebackers

1. Trevardo Williams (66)
2. Cornelius Washington (69)
3. Sio Moore (68)

  Kickers

1. Dustin Hopkins (69)

(x) = Character issues

(+) = Medical issue

(**) = Blue chip - long gone

Updated Big 50 Board, new additions highlighted in red:

Rd 1

DT- Jesse Williams

DE/OLB- Tank Carradine

DT- John Hankins

OG- Jonathan Cooper

CB- Xavier Rhodes

DT- Sylvester Williams

 

Rd 1-2

S- Jon Cyprien

S- Matt Elam

WR- DeAndre Hopkins

WR- Tavon Austin

 

Rd 2

WR- Quinton Patton

CB- Logan Ryan

CB- Darius Slay

CB- DJ Hayden

CB- Jamar Taylor

CB- Jordan Poyer

OLB/DE- Margus Hunt

S- Eric Reid

DT- John Jenkins

 

Rd 2-3

WR- Stedman Bailey

WR- Ryan Swope

S- DJ Swearinger

OL- Barrett Jones

OL- Brian Winters

OL- David Quessenberry

QB- EJ Manuel

 

Rd 3

WR/PR- Ace Sanders

WR- Josh Boyce

WR- Markus Wheaton

WR- Chris Harper

DE/OLB- Michael Buchanan

S- Josh Evans

CB/S- Dwayne Gratz

S- Shamarko Thomas

C/OG- Brian Schwenke

LB- Sio Moore

DE/OLB- Lavar Edwards

 

Rd 4-7

CB- Tyrann Mathieu

DE/OLB- Devin Taylor

OT- Reid Fragel

S- Zeke Motta

DE/OLB- Cornelius Washington

OG- Jeff Baca

DL- Kapron Lewis-Moore

DL- Quinton Dial

S- Cooper Taylor

DL- Josh Boyd

DL- Abry Jones

RB- Spencer Ware

WR- TJ Moe

 

Hey, I was just thinking, many of us are expecting BB to address the DT position early, and rightfully so.  However, if the Patriots are high on the development of Fortson and Armistead, then  BB may decide that WR, CB, OL, and/or S take priority. Should be interesting.

In response to SilverSun's comment:

hey silver, it was TOO good. raising his stoock higher than id like. dont remeber where i said it, probably here, he has tremendous raw strength. id have him in the weight room powerlifting developing his lower body strength. that and teaching him pass rush moves and the kid will be unstoppable (upside a jj watt type). needs to learn football more as well obviously. but pass rush is what we need most and teach him that and we will be vastly improved.

and im not off him, hes just at or near the bottom of my pass rusher list cause of his rawness as a football player.

poor combine and we might have got him in rd 2 (what coulda been :)

In response to Faucetman's comment:

" but perhaps Bjoern Warner is slipping?  Mayock has him dropping to the end of the 1st, early 2nd. "

dontr know what hes smokin'....

In response to Faucetman's comment:

hellooooo...agreed

In response to Faucetman's comment:

if we lose welker it coud be a good thing (though from rumors sounds like we give him more money than id like). and i dont know if youve seen me write it, but i want to move away from running our whole offense through 4 yard routes to welker (or a replacement). its a recipe for stalled drives and stalled sb runs. we have plenty of ammo for middle of field and none for outside (except a guy who falls if he catches) and outside deep.

a top pass rusher and big bodied speed separating receiveir who has big hands and can snag is what we need on offense to go along with a gronk and hern weapon, and rbs that can hurt you in run or out of backfield (runninG the offense out of the SAME SET JOSH) DISGUISING and giving no reads to the defense. then even good des cant just clog the middle and short (leavignus wiht no tropys for brady and bb).

ive had the same conclusion, we keep (talb)/get a #1 cb and a #2 cb, frees us up to get what we can in draft. keeping talib looks cheaper these days looking at fa

In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

 

 

Was just reading up on Reiss' blog.  Tagging Talib is starting to make the most sense.  We lock him up for $10.8MM then try to get a long-term deal done to aleivate that hit.  Word is Pats are 9th in most cap space available so this would be a good insurance policy. 

 

If we lose Welker, I would have to move Tavon Austin to the top of my board.

If we lose Vollmer, we have Cannon who should be experienced enough to start but there are other F/A options at RT and we could always address in the 2nd round.  Kyle Long if he's there.

We could then use our 3rd on a CB but I would not be surprised to see us add a F/A CB. 

 

I agree that tagging Talib makes the most sense, allowing them to retain a player that clearly made the D better, with a relatively low risk deal.

 

A couple to Rd 3 CB's to keep on your radar are Houston's DJ Hayden (who I have in Rd 2, but he is coming back from a freak injury that almost cost him his life), who'd come at a relative bargain, IMO and UConn's Dwayne Gratz... another size/speed/quicks/strength kid.

The thought of Austin is intriguing, though another alternative would be to sign an outside WR like Brian Hartline in FA, then draft a kid like Swope or Ace Sanders on Day 2... maybe double up on WR with an other Welker-type player in Mizzou's TJ Moe who won't beat you in a sprint, but is the quick footed, sudden, COD type that they like.

 

The more I'm looking at the market the less sense it makes to tag Talib. Here me out on this one. The tag is basd off the previously out of control CB contracts. Now with a flat cap and teams strugling to make or get good enough under the cap to make any moves applying a tag only cost you extra cap space. Considering the amount of similar tier CBs (DRC, Talib, Houston, Robinson, Smith, Grimes, Lewis) contracts should only go down. I think most agents would advise to take a 2 year contract and wait until the cap expands and contracts increase again. I think you can get a good cap friendly deal without the tag this year because the teams have all the leverage and for CB's it's a buyers market

 

The more I think about it the more I'm coming to the conclusion that of any year this would be the year I'd want to get tagged if I were a player. You get the tag value of when contracts were out of control, in a market that looks like it might be floaded by cheaper vet options (we haven't eve seen all the cuts yet), and after this years teams might have stbilized their cap space so they can reinvest next year. If I got tagged I'd haply sign it and not even attempt to negotiate a long term deal because the market is going to fall out on FA's and next year you might hae a better shot at getting a bigger contract

Margus Hunt makes me nervous. I really don't like his lack of production @ SMU, and I also don't like that he will be a 26 year old rookie.  I'd be okay taking him late 2nd, but he won't last that long. I hope we don't use our first on him.

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