***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

     

    Interesting.......

    http://www.scardraft.com/scott-carasiks-mock-draft/

    Round 1

    29. New England Patriots: WR Stedman Bailey (West Virginia) JR, 5’10-1/4″, 193 pounds

    Round 2

    27. New England Patriots: DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist) SR, 6’8-1/8″, 277 pounds

    Round 3

    29. New England Patriots: WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon State) SR, 5’11″, 189 pounds




    I see Bailey as a Rd 1 talent and have posted as such, though I'm still big on the idea of targeting one of the better DT's in this class, continuing to improve along the LOS... then targeting WR and CB.

    Now if the DT's are gone, then I'd have no prob snagging a WR in Rd 1 or trading back a bit.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

     

     

    Interesting.......

    http://www.scardraft.com/scott-carasiks-mock-draft/

    Round 1

    29. New England Patriots: WR Stedman Bailey (West Virginia) JR, 5’10-1/4″, 193 pounds

    Round 2

    27. New England Patriots: DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist) SR, 6’8-1/8″, 277 pounds

    Round 3

    29. New England Patriots: WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon State) SR, 5’11″, 189 pounds

     




     

    I see Bailey as a Rd 1 talent and have posted as such, though I'm still big on the idea of targeting one of the better DT's in this class, continuing to improve along the LOS... then targeting WR and CB.

    Now if the DT's are gone, then I'd have no prob snagging a WR in Rd 1 or trading back a bit.



    Makes me wonder if that Carasiks guy reads your post MB... at least some of it

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    Here is a list of some defensive linemen for production comparison of their stats coming out of college. Not all from this years draft. A few are patriots. They are in no particular order.

    College career #'s:

     

    Name            Tkl/gm         TFL/gm         Sacks/gm

    J. Watt             4.04              1.38              0.44

    N. Suh              3.68              0.80              0.39

    A. Armstead     2.81              0.50              0.19

    B. Deaderick    1.98               0.32              0.17

    S. Floyd            4.00              0.85              0.20

    S. Richardson   4.67              0.77              0.25

    K. Short            3.72              0.98              0.39

    S. Williams       3.84              0.82              0.34

    J. Hankins        4.06              0.49              0.15

    J. Williams        2.26              0.24              0.06

     

    enjoy....

     



    It's a little hard to read those numbers as they all depend on the scheme, how the player was used, and the resistance from the ooponent they faced. For example, Hankins was consistently doubled teamed so the likelyhood of him getting sacks is unlikely where as Deadrick, Armstead, and even Watt to a degree was left in 1v1 coverage. Additinally players like Floyd and Short were moved outside from time to time increasing the likelyhood of sacks and TFL's as opposed to pure interior players like J. Williams, Suh, and Hankins. Interesting number none the less but you have to put them into context and compare against players who were used in similar situations and similar game plans against them

     

     



    On a smaller sample size yes. Over a career not so much. I have been keeping these stats myself since 2007 and then some select patriots guys like seymour ect that I had to go way back and dig up.

     

    The guys who have had more production in their college careers have been the better pro players 9 times out of 10. It has translated. Especially the guys who had played and done it for 4 years. Those guys have an even higher success translation rate then the guys who only had two years of good production.

     

    Nothing is exact or full proff ofcourse.

     

    The one thing these sort of stats absolutely do NOT account for is upside. Is the player really good but he mostly is what he is or is he not eleite yet but will coninue to improve year over year for another 3 years before plateauing.

     

    Hankins is really a bit different than those other guys. When I have a moment. I will put him in with nata, wilfork, love, etc. etc. I added him in because he's this year and people have spoken about him. People have been asking for a DT pass rusher so I focused on that group and not the DT run suffers.



    Oh I completely agree those that have had consistent or consistent linear progression in stats are good signs of success in the pro's but I don't think comparing between players in different scheme's using simple averages is a good comparison how one player might perform over another. Now if you take standard deviation between years or estimated formulation of progressive growth and compare across players then I think that would be a better judge of a players performance in combination with their yearly averages

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

     

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

     

     

    Interesting.......

    http://www.scardraft.com/scott-carasiks-mock-draft/

    Round 1

    29. New England Patriots: WR Stedman Bailey (West Virginia) JR, 5’10-1/4″, 193 pounds

    Round 2

    27. New England Patriots: DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist) SR, 6’8-1/8″, 277 pounds

    Round 3

    29. New England Patriots: WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon State) SR, 5’11″, 189 pounds

     




     

    I see Bailey as a Rd 1 talent and have posted as such, though I'm still big on the idea of targeting one of the better DT's in this class, continuing to improve along the LOS... then targeting WR and CB.

    Now if the DT's are gone, then I'd have no prob snagging a WR in Rd 1 or trading back a bit.

     



    Makes me wonder if that Carasiks guy reads your post MB... at least some of it

     




    Haha, IDK if he reads us, but I'm gonna check his site out.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mcboyd22. Show mcboyd22's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    Good comments on stats for interior lineman - I mean how many sacks and tackles for loss does Vince have yearly? But you would be hard pressed to find an interior lineman with as much impact on the game - just ask dirty sanchez. 

    I happen to like both Hankins and Short - Hankins a bit better due to his bigger size. 

     

     

     

     

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    In response to Faucetman's comment:

     

    ...

    My personal view is the Pat's won't draft DT at 29 because of Armstead.  I heard they are pretty high on him.  While Love is entering the last year of his deal, I also think they have bigger needs, especially at WR, CB and coverage LB. 

    We actually need 2 WRs.  This looks like 2006 all over again.  We have nothing at WR now with Amendola getting hurt all the time, Jones and Jenkins are #4-5 WRs at best, and we'll probably be stuck with Branch and Stallworth coming off the street by Week 6.  I'm actually hoping they will bring Lloyd back.  Right now our WR position is a train wreck, worst in the league if you ask me.  Name a team with a worse #1 and #2 than us (Amendola and Jones according to Patriots.com depth chart)?

    ...

     

     

    Hey Faucet... 

    I hope they don't get complacent with the DT spot. I really think their defensive schemes and effectivity are limited by the level of talent they have on the interior DL. 

    I can see how they might not pick up Short, given he might be a similar player to Armstead. I would be thrilled if they pick up a NT-type player, which I believe Short is not. Neither is Amrstead.




     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to mcboyd22's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Good comments on stats for interior lineman - I mean how many sacks and tackles for loss does Vince have yearly? But you would be hard pressed to find an interior lineman with as much impact on the game - just ask dirty sanchez. 

    I happen to like both Hankins and Short - Hankins a bit better due to his bigger size. 

     

    Wilforks pass rushing or line penetration numbers were a lot better than you think in college...

     

    Player        Tckl/gm   TFL/gm   Sacks/gm

    J. Hankins        4.06              0.49              0.15

    V. Wilfork           3.89             0.99              0.37

     

    Hankins had 5 sacks in his 3 yr. career. Wilfork had 14 in his 3 yr. career.

    Hankins had 16.5 TFL's while Wilfork had 37.5 TFL's.

    So bascially Wilfork doubled Hankins TFL and sack profuction over the same period of time. However, to Eng's point, Wilfork was used in that role (a penetrating DT) at the U during his time there.

     

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    Low... When all is said and done, who do you want the Pats to pick at 29?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    I also tried looking into Seymour's college numbers, but getting ridiculous tackles/game and sacks/game numbers. I don't trust them. Do you have those?

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    I don't think we're ever gonna see a interior DL throw up huge sack totals while BB is running the show in Foxboro... VW is one of the best that we've seen and his career high is 3.5 in 2011. 

    Heck Richard Seymour's career high in NE was 8... by comparison, JJ Watt (also a 34 DE) threw up 20.5 last year... so it's more of a scheme/assignment thing and BB likes his DL to control gaps/multiple blockers freeing up the edge players and backers to make plays.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    I also tried looking into Seymour's college numbers, but getting ridiculous tackles/game and sacks/game numbers. I don't trust them. Do you have those?




    Seymour's college stats:  41 games (25 starts), 223 tackles, 9.5 sacks (1.5 as a senior) 25.5 TFL (10.5 as a senior).

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    I also tried looking into Seymour's college numbers, but getting ridiculous tackles/game and sacks/game numbers. I don't trust them. Do you have those?

     




    Seymour's college stats:  41 games (25 starts), 223 tackles, 9.5 sacks (1.5 as a senior) 25.5 TFL (10.5 as a senior).

     



    Yeah. Those were the numbers I found. Translating to per game numbers of

    5.44 Tackles/gm

    0.23 Sacks/ gm

    0.62 TFLs/gm

    Tackles and TFLs per game numbers dwarf those of other DTs'.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    Here is another mock from Charlie Campbell at walterfootball.com

    he has us taking

    1. Kawaan Short

    2. Margus Hunt

    3. Ryan Swope

    not a bad haul, but in his mock Hankins and Jenkins are there at 29....and Derrick Rogers is there in the 3rd. 

    Sorry to say MB, he has the Phins taking our guy Stedman Bailey...

    http://walterfootball.com/draft2013charlie_1.php

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to PatsLifer's comment:

     

    Here is another mock from Charlie Campbell at walterfootball.com

    he has us taking

    1. Kawaan Short

    2. Margus Hunt

    3. Ryan Swope

    not a bad haul, but in his mock Hankins and Jenkins are there at 29....and Derrick Rogers is there in the 3rd. 

    Sorry to say MB, he has the Phins taking our guy Stedman Bailey...

    http://walterfootball.com/draft2013charlie_1.php

     

     

    ..

    I'd be kinda surprised to see Miami take another WR, with Wallace, Hartline, Bess and Gibson on the roster, ha... would much rather have Stedman than Hunt in Rd 2... heck this guy has Jesse Williams available until pick 74.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    For me, DT and CB, whichever order, for 29 and 59

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    For me, DT and CB, whichever order, for 29 and 59

    Toss in WR in that range for me.

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    Here is a list of some defensive linemen for production comparison of their stats coming out of college. Not all from this years draft. A few are patriots. 

    College career #'s:

     

    Name                 Tkl/gm        TFL/gm         Sacks/gm

    1)J. Watt             4.04              1.38              0.44

    2)N. Suh              3.68              0.80              0.39

    3)A. Armstead     2.81              0.50              0.19

    4)B. Deaderick    1.98               0.32              0.17

    5)S. Floyd            4.00              0.85              0.20

    6)S. Richardson   4.67              0.77              0.25

    7)K. Short            3.72              0.98              0.39

    8)J. Hankins        4.06              0.49              0.15

    9)S. Williams       3.84              0.82              0.34

    10)J. Williams      2.26              0.24              0.06

     

    enjoy....

     



    Floyd, Richardson, Short and S Williams look good on those numbers. The thing is to me they also pass the eye test. I don't have the sharpest eyes but I don't know that many will disagree.

     

    Would love it if you could add J Jenkins' numbers too.

    Thanks for that.

     



    al but richradson were high on my radar early on. i didnt think richardson was gonna make it to late 1st round

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

     

     

    Interesting.......

    http://www.scardraft.com/scott-carasiks-mock-draft/

    Round 1

    29. New England Patriots: WR Stedman Bailey (West Virginia) JR, 5’10-1/4″, 193 pounds

    Round 2

    27. New England Patriots: DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist) SR, 6’8-1/8″, 277 pounds

    Round 3

    29. New England Patriots: WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon State) SR, 5’11″, 189 pounds

     



    I really would hate this draft. Not that I don't like the player as I love all of them but that it doesn't address the issue in the interior DL and does nothing for the depth at CB. I shutter to think of the thought that Ras is the main backup for Talib and Dennard followed by Cole. As of right now I look at our CB's and say there's only 3 on the roster as I don't think Ras would last a season nor do I think Cole is an actually CB.

     

     



    I was surprised Bailey was being considered a 1st rd pick.  There is some really weird rankings on players even now close to the draft.  It just makes more sense to trade out, if you can find a team.

     

    I agree DT and CB or CB/S combo seems more valuable.  If they went, in no order, WR, DT, CB in the top three I would be ok with that for sure.



    im still de, wr, cb/s

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    Well Bred... there's talk now of no QBs being picked in the first round. That would be bad. I am pretty confident that Geno Smith gets picked in the first. I would not be surprised if no other QB does. 

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21978776/will-qbs-be-shut-out-of-first-round-of-2013-nfl-draft

     



    hey yeah sea, 0- bad. 3-4 ideal

     

    i think 2 is a good over/ under # and the middle # likely. with all the pickup of qbs lately, i do wonder if this affects the draft. my gut was 3. after all this movement, will have to see if that affects it (my gut feeling).

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to jimmytantric's comment:

     

    I will be VERY suprised if BB does not trade out of the 1st round and take someones 2nd and 3rd giving him 2 seconds  and two 3rds-he might even squeeze a 5th out of someone. I'm told this is a very DEEP draft with no real marquee players sticking out- so something like early 2nd plus Pats 2nd, early 3rd plus Pats 3rd, Pats 4th and someones 5th and our 7th-giving the Pats 7picks. So the trade would be our 1st  for a teams 2nd, 3rd and 5th. I just don't see BB keeping that 1st round pick?

     



    our 1st for a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th is way to much unless we are talking the back end of the 2nd. More then likely, given past trades, you are looking closer to a 2nd and 4th for an early pick, 2nd 4th and 6th for a mid 2nd and 2nd 3rd and 5th for a late 2nd. Truthfully in order to move back you need a trade partner to begin with. With the exception of DT and early OL there really is no one to move up for. Before the QB needy teams started to thin out I could see someone moving up for Barkley but not at this point. If someone is moving up for a DT then I think that would be a mistake by BB not to take one. Interior DT is a pretty big need for the Pats and the depth past 50 is rather thin at DT. Trading away a chance at a 1st round grade DT for 2nd or 3rd tier talent CBs/WRs is not the value BB typically looks for in deals and have typically come back to haunt him (Johnson, Jackson, Wheatley, Price, Tate, Butler, Chung)

     

    I don't think BB trades back this year. If anything I see him trading picks next year to move back into a round. After last year seeing his willingness to move up for players he wants I think he can smell the D is almost rebuilt and a couple players away. Also knowing that the 09' basically ended up with only Vollmer and recent critizism for trading back has put a spur into his backside. You can tell he gets visible frustrated when you mention the 09' and even some player personal decisions from moving back. I actually wouldn't be shocked if he targetted a couple of specific players and moved up to get them.



    "

     

    • PatsEng
    • Posts: 8641
    • First: 2/11/2009
    • Last: 4/1/2013

    In response to jimmytantric's comment:

     

    I will be VERY suprised if BB does not trade out of the 1st round and take someones 2nd and 3rd giving him 2 seconds  and two 3rds-he might even squeeze a 5th out of someone. I'm told this is a very DEEP draft with no real marquee players sticking out- so something like early 2nd plus Pats 2nd, early 3rd plus Pats 3rd, Pats 4th and someones 5th and our 7th-giving the Pats 7picks. So the trade would be our 1st  for a teams 2nd, 3rd and 5th. I just don't see BB keeping that 1st round pick?

     



    our 1st for a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th is way to much unless we are talking the back end of the 2nd. More then likely, given past trades, you are looking closer to a 2nd and 4th for an early pick, 2nd 4th and 6th for a mid 2nd and 2nd 3rd and 5th for a late 2nd. Truthfully in order to move back you need a trade partner to begin with. With the exception of DT and early OL there really is no one to move up for. Before the QB needy teams started to thin out I could see someone moving up for Barkley but not at this point. If someone is moving up for a DT then I think that would be a mistake by BB not to take one. Interior DT is a pretty big need for the Pats and the depth past 50 is rather thin at DT. Trading away a chance at a 1st round grade DT for 2nd or 3rd tier talent CBs/WRs is not the value BB typically looks for in deals and have typically come back to haunt him (Johnson, Jackson, Wheatley, Price, Tate, Butler, Chung)

     

    I don't think BB trades back this year. If anything I see him trading picks next year to move back into a round."

     

    that indeed is how i started my ananlysis of this draft season. not necessarly that bb would do it, but that we should. team is young enough. need 2-3 studs at needy positons (de, dt, outside wr) and quality depth at cb, ol, s.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to Godvernment's comment:

    http://www.ourlads.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/

    these guys are not well known, but they have been one of the most accurate throughout the past several drafts.



    This is the 4th site I have seen that has Tavon Austin mocked to Pats.

    If Austin is there, do the pats pull the trigger ?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    Well Bred... there's talk now of no QBs being picked in the first round. That would be bad. I am pretty confident that Geno Smith gets picked in the first. I would not be surprised if no other QB does. 

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21978776/will-qbs-be-shut-out-of-first-round-of-2013-nfl-draft

     



    I still don't see Geno getting past Buf at #8 even with the Kolb signing. Not to mention Chips random confession that he doesn't need a premier QB to run his offense is almost laughable. Smells pretty fishy to me. We know what Chip's system is and he doesn't need a very specific kind of QB to run it. I doubt he really believes anyone can step in and run it

     

     



    Nassib could be the wildcard here... crazy or not, The National Football Post/Russ Lande has Nassib is it's #1 overall prospect in this class and we know about the Marrone/Nassib link.

     

     



    i too have felt nassib could slip into th efirst round as a darkhorse along with a few others

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to PatsLifer's comment:

    In response to Godvernment's comment:

     

    http://www.ourlads.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/

    these guys are not well known, but they have been one of the most accurate throughout the past several drafts.

     



    This is the 4th site I have seen that has Tavon Austin mocked to Pats.

     

    If Austin is there, do the pats pull the trigger ?



    i saw him mocked by 100 sites (over and over again) until recently where there is more diversitiy of picks now

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from PATSchampsSB. Show PATSchampsSB's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to PatsLifer's comment:

    In response to Godvernment's comment:

     

    http://www.ourlads.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/

    these guys are not well known, but they have been one of the most accurate throughout the past several drafts.

     



    This is the 4th site I have seen that has Tavon Austin mocked to Pats.

     

    If Austin is there, do the pats pull the trigger ?



    Before the combine a lot of sites, were  mocking Austin To Pats but after the combine, I don`t think he will be avaible in the 29th...

     

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