Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***
posted at 4/1/2013 2:59 PM EDT
In response to PatsEng's comment:
In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:
Here is a list of some defensive linemen for production comparison of their stats coming out of college. Not all from this years draft. A few are patriots. They are in no particular order.
College career #'s:
Name Tkl/gm TFL/gm Sacks/gm
J. Watt 4.04 1.38 0.44
N. Suh 3.68 0.80 0.39
A. Armstead 2.81 0.50 0.19
B. Deaderick 1.98 0.32 0.17
S. Floyd 4.00 0.85 0.20
S. Richardson 4.67 0.77 0.25
K. Short 3.72 0.98 0.39
S. Williams 3.84 0.82 0.34
J. Hankins 4.06 0.49 0.15
J. Williams 2.26 0.24 0.06
It's a little hard to read those numbers as they all depend on the scheme, how the player was used, and the resistance from the ooponent they faced. For example, Hankins was consistently doubled teamed so the likelyhood of him getting sacks is unlikely where as Deadrick, Armstead, and even Watt to a degree was left in 1v1 coverage. Additinally players like Floyd and Short were moved outside from time to time increasing the likelyhood of sacks and TFL's as opposed to pure interior players like J. Williams, Suh, and Hankins. Interesting number none the less but you have to put them into context and compare against players who were used in similar situations and similar game plans against them
On a smaller sample size yes. Over a career not so much. I have been keeping these stats myself since 2007 and then some select patriots guys like seymour ect that I had to go way back and dig up.
The guys who have had more production in their college careers have been the better pro players 9 times out of 10. It has translated. Especially the guys who had played and done it for 4 years. Those guys have an even higher success translation rate then the guys who only had two years of good production.
Nothing is exact or full proof ofcourse.
The one thing these sort of stats absolutely do NOT account for is upside. Is the player really good but he mostly is what he is or is he not eleite yet but will coninue to improve year over year for another 3 years before plateauing.
Hankins is really a bit different than those other guys. When I have a moment. I will put him in with nata, wilfork, love, etc. etc. I added him in because he's this year and people have spoken about him. People have been asking for a DT pass rusher so I focused on that group and not the DT run suffers.