***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    Well Bred... there's talk now of no QBs being picked in the first round. That would be bad. I am pretty confident that Geno Smith gets picked in the first. I would not be surprised if no other QB does. 

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21978776/will-qbs-be-shut-out-of-first-round-of-2013-nfl-draft

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimmytantric. Show jimmytantric's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    I will be VERY suprised if BB does not trade out of the 1st round and take someones 2nd and 3rd giving him 2 seconds  and two 3rds-he might even squeeze a 5th out of someone. I'm told this is a very DEEP draft with no real marquee players sticking out- so something like early 2nd plus Pats 2nd, early 3rd plus Pats 3rd, Pats 4th and someones 5th and our 7th-giving the Pats 7picks. So the trade would be our 1st  for a teams 2nd, 3rd and 5th. I just don't see BB keeping that 1st round pick?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to jimmytantric's comment:

    I will be VERY suprised if BB does not trade out of the 1st round and take someones 2nd and 3rd giving him 2 seconds  and two 3rds-he might even squeeze a 5th out of someone. I'm told this is a very DEEP draft with no real marquee players sticking out- so something like early 2nd plus Pats 2nd, early 3rd plus Pats 3rd, Pats 4th and someones 5th and our 7th-giving the Pats 7picks. So the trade would be our 1st  for a teams 2nd, 3rd and 5th. I just don't see BB keeping that 1st round pick?



    I agree that he will want to trade down. Whether he finds a partner really is a different question.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to jimmytantric's comment:

    I will be VERY suprised if BB does not trade out of the 1st round and take someones 2nd and 3rd giving him 2 seconds  and two 3rds-he might even squeeze a 5th out of someone. I'm told this is a very DEEP draft with no real marquee players sticking out- so something like early 2nd plus Pats 2nd, early 3rd plus Pats 3rd, Pats 4th and someones 5th and our 7th-giving the Pats 7picks. So the trade would be our 1st  for a teams 2nd, 3rd and 5th. I just don't see BB keeping that 1st round pick?



    our 1st for a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th is way to much unless we are talking the back end of the 2nd. More then likely, given past trades, you are looking closer to a 2nd and 4th for an early pick, 2nd 4th and 6th for a mid 2nd and 2nd 3rd and 5th for a late 2nd. Truthfully in order to move back you need a trade partner to begin with. With the exception of DT and early OL there really is no one to move up for. Before the QB needy teams started to thin out I could see someone moving up for Barkley but not at this point. If someone is moving up for a DT then I think that would be a mistake by BB not to take one. Interior DT is a pretty big need for the Pats and the depth past 50 is rather thin at DT. Trading away a chance at a 1st round grade DT for 2nd or 3rd tier talent CBs/WRs is not the value BB typically looks for in deals and have typically come back to haunt him (Johnson, Jackson, Wheatley, Price, Tate, Butler, Chung)

    I don't think BB trades back this year. If anything I see him trading picks next year to move back into a round. After last year seeing his willingness to move up for players he wants I think he can smell the D is almost rebuilt and a couple players away. Also knowing that the 09' basically ended up with only Vollmer and recent critizism for trading back has put a spur into his backside. You can tell he gets visible frustrated when you mention the 09' and even some player personal decisions from moving back. I actually wouldn't be shocked if he targetted a couple of specific players and moved up to get them.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    Well Bred... there's talk now of no QBs being picked in the first round. That would be bad. I am pretty confident that Geno Smith gets picked in the first. I would not be surprised if no other QB does. 

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21978776/will-qbs-be-shut-out-of-first-round-of-2013-nfl-draft



    I still don't see Geno getting past Buf at #8 even with the Kolb signing. Not to mention Chips random confession that he doesn't need a premier QB to run his offense is almost laughable. Smells pretty fishy to me. We know what Chip's system is and he doesn't need a very specific kind of QB to run it. I doubt he really believes anyone can step in and run it

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from WazzuWheatfarmer. Show WazzuWheatfarmer's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to jimmytantric's comment:

     

    I will be VERY suprised if BB does not trade out of the 1st round and take someones 2nd and 3rd giving him 2 seconds  and two 3rds-he might even squeeze a 5th out of someone. I'm told this is a very DEEP draft with no real marquee players sticking out- so something like early 2nd plus Pats 2nd, early 3rd plus Pats 3rd, Pats 4th and someones 5th and our 7th-giving the Pats 7picks. So the trade would be our 1st  for a teams 2nd, 3rd and 5th. I just don't see BB keeping that 1st round pick?

     



    our 1st for a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th is way to much unless we are talking the back end of the 2nd. More then likely, given past trades, you are looking closer to a 2nd and 4th for an early pick, 2nd 4th and 6th for a mid 2nd and 2nd 3rd and 5th for a late 2nd. Truthfully in order to move back you need a trade partner to begin with. With the exception of DT and early OL there really is no one to move up for. Before the QB needy teams started to thin out I could see someone moving up for Barkley but not at this point. If someone is moving up for a DT then I think that would be a mistake by BB not to take one. Interior DT is a pretty big need for the Pats and the depth past 50 is rather thin at DT. Trading away a chance at a 1st round grade DT for 2nd or 3rd tier talent CBs/WRs is not the value BB typically looks for in deals and have typically come back to haunt him (Johnson, Jackson, Wheatley, Price, Tate, Butler, Chung)

     

    I don't think BB trades back this year. If anything I see him trading picks next year to move back into a round. After last year seeing his willingness to move up for players he wants I think he can smell the D is almost rebuilt and a couple players away. Also knowing that the 09' basically ended up with only Vollmer and recent critizism for trading back has put a spur into his backside. You can tell he gets visible frustrated when you mention the 09' and even some player personal decisions from moving back. I actually wouldn't be shocked if he targetted a couple of specific players and moved up to get them.



    Totally agree. I think a willing trade partner will be tough to come by this year.  Too deep at DL, OL, WR for anyone to trade into the first.  

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    Well Bred... there's talk now of no QBs being picked in the first round. That would be bad. I am pretty confident that Geno Smith gets picked in the first. I would not be surprised if no other QB does. 

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21978776/will-qbs-be-shut-out-of-first-round-of-2013-nfl-draft

     



    I still don't see Geno getting past Buf at #8 even with the Kolb signing. Not to mention Chips random confession that he doesn't need a premier QB to run his offense is almost laughable. Smells pretty fishy to me. We know what Chip's system is and he doesn't need a very specific kind of QB to run it. I doubt he really believes anyone can step in and run it

     



    Nassib could be the wildcard here... crazy or not, The National Football Post/Russ Lande has Nassib is it's #1 overall prospect in this class and we know about the Marrone/Nassib link.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    What's interesting is that some teams that DON'T draft a QB in the 1st round could trade up to secure QB#2 in the draft thus making them potential trade partners. Someone like Nassib or Manual might look better at #29 than at #41 where you could be behind or in front of a team that has a need at QB.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to JohnHannahrulz's comment:

    What's interesting is that some teams that DON'T draft a QB in the 1st round could trade up to secure QB#2 in the draft thus making them potential trade partners. Someone like Nassib or Manual might look better at #29 than at #41 where you could be behind or in front of a team that has a need at QB.



    Will def have to be a draft day read of the board... if a run of QB's takes place, teams may feel the pressure/need to trade up and get someone, though it could also be argued that teams prob don't wanna move into Rd 1 for a Tyler Wilson or Mike Glennon or Matt Barkley, etc.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    Below is my updated Big 53 Board... new additions in Red:

    Rd 1

    DT- Jesse Williams

    DE/OLB- Tank Carradine

    OG- Jonathan Cooper

    DT- Sylvester Williams

    WR- DeAndre Hopkins

    WR- Keenan Allen

    CB- Xavier Rhodes

    WR- Tavon Austin

    DT- John Hankins

     

    Rd 1-2

    WR- Stedman Bailey

    S- Matt Elam

    S- Jon Cyprien

     

    Rd 2

    CB- DJ Hayden

    DT- Kawaan Short

    CB- Logan Ryan

    CB- Johnthan Banks

     CB- Jamar Taylor

     WR- Quinton Patton

     CB- Jordan Poyer

     S- Eric Reid

      DT- John Jenkins

     

    Rd 2-3

    CB- Darius Slay

    WR- Markus Wheaton

    WR- Da'Rick Rogers

    S- Shamarko Thomas

    S- DJ Swearinger

     

    Rd 3

    WR- Ryan Swope

    DE/OLB- Michael Buchanan

    DE/OLB- Margus Hunt

    OL- Barrett Jones

    OL- Brian Winters

    OL- David Quessenberry

    C/OG- Brian Schwenke

    DE/OLB- Lavar Edwards

    CB- Tyrann Mathieu

    S- Keelan Johnson

    DT- Kwame Geathers

    DE/OLB- Devin Taylor

     

    Rd 4-7

    WR/PR- Ace Sanders

    S- Cooper Taylor

    WR- Chris Harper

    WR- Josh Boyce

    S- Josh Evans

    OG- Jeff Baca

    S- Zeke Motta

    DE/OLB- Cornelius Washington

    DL- Chris Jones

    DL- Josh Boyd

    WR- TJ Moe

    RB- Spencer Ware

    DL- Quinton Dial

    DL- Kapron Lewis-Moore

    OL- Tanner Hawkinson

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    MB, I see runs on LT, DT, and CBs. That seems to be where the depth is. It's becoming a tradition for a CB to be taken in the top ten (Milliner, Claiborne, Peterson) as the search for the elusive shutdown corner continues. If we see a run on QBs IMHO it will be in round 2. Teams like Jac, Jets, Eagles might be gun shy about drafting a QB in the 1st, however, if there is a small run on QBs this could push someone like Jesse Williams down to the Pats. I've seen Rhodes go as high as #12 and if he's regarded as the 2nd best CB it's hard to see him last til Pats pick. As always no two boards are the same.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jjdbrasil. Show jjdbrasil's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

     Former Missouri running back Derrick Washington, who lit it up at Tuskegee last season, is visiting the Kansas City Chiefsand has a private workout scheduled with the New England Patriots.  Washington was dominant during his Missouri days and looked like a prime NFL running back prospect before being sidelined with legal issues.

     

    http://www.draftinsider.net/blog/?p=6884

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to JohnHannahrulz's comment:

    MB, I see runs on LT, DT, and CBs. That seems to be where the depth is. It's becoming a tradition for a CB to be taken in the top ten (Milliner, Claiborne, Peterson) as the search for the elusive shutdown corner continues. If we see a run on QBs IMHO it will be in round 2. Teams like Jac, Jets, Eagles might be gun shy about drafting a QB in the 1st, however, if there is a small run on QBs this could push someone like Jesse Williams down to the Pats. I've seen Rhodes go as high as #12 and if he's regarded as the 2nd best CB it's hard to see him last til Pats pick. As always no two boards are the same.



    JHr,

    I agree that some of the players on my board above will not be available when NE selects (i.e Rhodes/Cooper)... I have them listed there in the instance that they are available, though I've thought about removing Rhodes and Cooper for that reason as it's looking less and less likely that they'll be around.

    Are you talking about Jesse to NE in Rd 2? 

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

     

     Former Missouri running back Derrick Washington, who lit it up at Tuskegee last season, is visiting the Kansas City Chiefsand has a private workout scheduled with the New England Patriots.  Washington was dominant during his Missouri days and looked like a prime NFL running back prospect before being sidelined with legal issues.

     

    http://www.draftinsider.net/blog/?p=6884

     



     

    "legal issues" = jail time for sexual assault.  Makes sense that they're at least doing their homework.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    Well Bred... there's talk now of no QBs being picked in the first round. That would be bad. I am pretty confident that Geno Smith gets picked in the first. I would not be surprised if no other QB does. 

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21978776/will-qbs-be-shut-out-of-first-round-of-2013-nfl-draft

     



    I still don't see Geno getting past Buf at #8 even with the Kolb signing. Not to mention Chips random confession that he doesn't need a premier QB to run his offense is almost laughable. Smells pretty fishy to me. We know what Chip's system is and he doesn't need a very specific kind of QB to run it. I doubt he really believes anyone can step in and run it

     

     



    Nassib could be the wildcard here... crazy or not, The National Football Post/Russ Lande has Nassib is it's #1 overall prospect in this class and we know about the Marrone/Nassib link.

     

     



    He would not be the only one with that grade or position rank on Nassib but it is also not suprising as I am absolutely convinced that at least half of the people ranking or doing write ups just copy what others are doing. Most of it is momentum where perception becomes reality after a while with too many of these so called "scouts".

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

    In response to mbeaulieu07's comment:

     

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    Well Bred... there's talk now of no QBs being picked in the first round. That would be bad. I am pretty confident that Geno Smith gets picked in the first. I would not be surprised if no other QB does. 

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21978776/will-qbs-be-shut-out-of-first-round-of-2013-nfl-draft

     



    I still don't see Geno getting past Buf at #8 even with the Kolb signing. Not to mention Chips random confession that he doesn't need a premier QB to run his offense is almost laughable. Smells pretty fishy to me. We know what Chip's system is and he doesn't need a very specific kind of QB to run it. I doubt he really believes anyone can step in and run it

     

     



    Nassib could be the wildcard here... crazy or not, The National Football Post/Russ Lande has Nassib is it's #1 overall prospect in this class and we know about the Marrone/Nassib link.

     

     

     



    He would not be the only one with that grade or position rank on Nassib but it is also not suprising as I am absolutely convinced that at least half of the people ranking or doing write ups just copy what others are doing. Most of it is momentum where perception becomes reality after a while with too many of these so called "scouts".

     

     



    I'd agree... this is why I like the outliers... forces me to take a closer look at a kid to see if I'm missing something.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jjdbrasil. Show jjdbrasil's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

     

    Interesting.......

    http://www.scardraft.com/scott-carasiks-mock-draft/

    Round 1

    29. New England Patriots: WR Stedman Bailey (West Virginia) JR, 5’10-1/4″, 193 pounds

    Round 2

    27. New England Patriots: DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist) SR, 6’8-1/8″, 277 pounds

    Round 3

    29. New England Patriots: WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon State) SR, 5’11″, 189 pounds

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

     

    Interesting.......

    http://www.scardraft.com/scott-carasiks-mock-draft/

    Round 1

    29. New England Patriots: WR Stedman Bailey (West Virginia) JR, 5’10-1/4″, 193 pounds

    Round 2

    27. New England Patriots: DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist) SR, 6’8-1/8″, 277 pounds

    Round 3

    29. New England Patriots: WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon State) SR, 5’11″, 189 pounds



    I really would hate this draft. Not that I don't like the player as I love all of them but that it doesn't address the issue in the interior DL and does nothing for the depth at CB. I shutter to think of the thought that Ras is the main backup for Talib and Dennard followed by Cole. As of right now I look at our CB's and say there's only 3 on the roster as I don't think Ras would last a season nor do I think Cole is an actually CB.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    My new list of prefered WR's, with the caveat that the list would change for me if and when I can find the wonderlic scores for the WRs.

    Career #'s:

    Name                 Yrds/gm          Rec/gm           Yrds/rec

    1) Hopkins             77.15              5.26                   14.7

    2) Bailey                82.51              5.38                   15.3

    3) Patton              103.76             7.32                   14.2

    4) Woods              77.11              6.63                   11.6

    5) Wheaton           65.09              4.93                   13.2

    6) Rogers              60.00               3.97                  15.1

     

    I gave more preference to players who were more consistent game in and game out in both # of catches and yards per game. Players also got preference who either have a well documented reputation among scouts as good route runners able to run the whole route tree or played in a pro style offense.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jjdbrasil. Show jjdbrasil's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

     

     

    Interesting.......

    http://www.scardraft.com/scott-carasiks-mock-draft/

    Round 1

    29. New England Patriots: WR Stedman Bailey (West Virginia) JR, 5’10-1/4″, 193 pounds

    Round 2

    27. New England Patriots: DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist) SR, 6’8-1/8″, 277 pounds

    Round 3

    29. New England Patriots: WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon State) SR, 5’11″, 189 pounds

     



    I really would hate this draft. Not that I don't like the player as I love all of them but that it doesn't address the issue in the interior DL and does nothing for the depth at CB. I shutter to think of the thought that Ras is the main backup for Talib and Dennard followed by Cole. As of right now I look at our CB's and say there's only 3 on the roster as I don't think Ras would last a season nor do I think Cole is an actually CB.

     



    I was surprised Bailey was being considered a 1st rd pick.  There is some really weird rankings on players even now close to the draft.  It just makes more sense to trade out, if you can find a team.

    I agree DT and CB or CB/S combo seems more valuable.  If they went, in no order, WR, DT, CB in the top three I would be ok with that for sure.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to jjdbrasil's comment:

     


    I was surprised Bailey was being considered a 1st rd pick.  There is some really weird rankings on players even now close to the draft.  It just makes more sense to trade out, if you can find a team.

     

    I agree DT and CB or CB/S combo seems more valuable.  If they went, in no order, WR, DT, CB in the top three I would be ok with that for sure.




    I'd be surprised by Bailey that early too. I was thinking more of a mid 2nd to mid 3rd type of WR same as Rogers.

    My order is DT, WR, CB mainly because I see the reall talent in DT in the top 9 players then the talent drops off drastically. Imo those top 9 players will all go in the top 50 picks. WR and CB, however, I see the depth going from the back of the 1st to the early 4th range with not a lot of differences between players taken in the back of the 1st as opposed to the early 3rd range with the back of the 3rd having similar talent levels but more questions marks (injures, off-field issues, tweeners)

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    Here is a list of some defensive linemen for production comparison of their stats coming out of college. Not all from this years draft. A few are patriots. They are in no particular order.

    College career #'s:

     

    Name            Tkl/gm         TFL/gm         Sacks/gm

    J. Watt             4.04              1.38              0.44

    N. Suh              3.68              0.80              0.39

    A. Armstead     2.81              0.50              0.19

    B. Deaderick    1.98               0.32              0.17

    S. Floyd            4.00              0.85              0.20

    S. Richardson   4.67              0.77              0.25

    K. Short            3.72              0.98              0.39

    S. Williams       3.84              0.82              0.34

    J. Hankins        4.06              0.49              0.15

    J. Williams        2.26              0.24              0.06

     

    enjoy....

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

    Here is a list of some defensive linemen for production comparison of their stats coming out of college. Not all from this years draft. A few are patriots. 

    College career #'s:

     

    Name                 Tkl/gm        TFL/gm         Sacks/gm

    1)J. Watt             4.04              1.38              0.44

    2)N. Suh              3.68              0.80              0.39

    3)A. Armstead     2.81              0.50              0.19

    4)B. Deaderick    1.98               0.32              0.17

    5)S. Floyd            4.00              0.85              0.20

    6)S. Richardson   4.67              0.77              0.25

    7)K. Short            3.72              0.98              0.39

    8)J. Hankins        4.06              0.49              0.15

    9)S. Williams       3.84              0.82              0.34

    10)J. Williams      2.26              0.24              0.06

     

    enjoy....



    Floyd, Richardson, Short and S Williams look good on those numbers. The thing is to me they also pass the eye test. I don't have the sharpest eyes but I don't know that many will disagree.

    Would love it if you could add J Jenkins' numbers too.

    Thanks for that.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

    Here is a list of some defensive linemen for production comparison of their stats coming out of college. Not all from this years draft. A few are patriots. They are in no particular order.

    College career #'s:

     

    Name            Tkl/gm         TFL/gm         Sacks/gm

    J. Watt             4.04              1.38              0.44

    N. Suh              3.68              0.80              0.39

    A. Armstead     2.81              0.50              0.19

    B. Deaderick    1.98               0.32              0.17

    S. Floyd            4.00              0.85              0.20

    S. Richardson   4.67              0.77              0.25

    K. Short            3.72              0.98              0.39

    S. Williams       3.84              0.82              0.34

    J. Hankins        4.06              0.49              0.15

    J. Williams        2.26              0.24              0.06

     

    enjoy....



    It's a little hard to read those numbers as they all depend on the scheme, how the player was used, and the resistance from the ooponent they faced. For example, Hankins was consistently doubled teamed so the likelyhood of him getting sacks is unlikely where as Deadrick, Armstead, and even Watt to a degree was left in 1v1 coverage. Additinally players like Floyd and Short were moved outside from time to time increasing the likelyhood of sacks and TFL's as opposed to pure interior players like J. Williams, Suh, and Hankins. Interesting number none the less but you have to put them into context and compare against players who were used in similar situations and similar game plans against them

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: ***2013 Patriots Draft Thread V2***

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    Here is a list of some defensive linemen for production comparison of their stats coming out of college. Not all from this years draft. A few are patriots. They are in no particular order.

    College career #'s:

     

    Name            Tkl/gm         TFL/gm         Sacks/gm

    J. Watt             4.04              1.38              0.44

    N. Suh              3.68              0.80              0.39

    A. Armstead     2.81              0.50              0.19

    B. Deaderick    1.98               0.32              0.17

    S. Floyd            4.00              0.85              0.20

    S. Richardson   4.67              0.77              0.25

    K. Short            3.72              0.98              0.39

    S. Williams       3.84              0.82              0.34

    J. Hankins        4.06              0.49              0.15

    J. Williams        2.26              0.24              0.06

     

    enjoy....

     



    It's a little hard to read those numbers as they all depend on the scheme, how the player was used, and the resistance from the ooponent they faced. For example, Hankins was consistently doubled teamed so the likelyhood of him getting sacks is unlikely where as Deadrick, Armstead, and even Watt to a degree was left in 1v1 coverage. Additinally players like Floyd and Short were moved outside from time to time increasing the likelyhood of sacks and TFL's as opposed to pure interior players like J. Williams, Suh, and Hankins. Interesting number none the less but you have to put them into context and compare against players who were used in similar situations and similar game plans against them

     

     



    On a smaller sample size yes. Over a career not so much. I have been keeping these stats myself since 2007 and then some select patriots guys like seymour ect that I had to go way back and dig up.

     

    The guys who have had more production in their college careers have been the better pro players 9 times out of 10. It has translated. Especially the guys who had played and done it for 4 years. Those guys have an even higher success translation rate then the guys who only had two years of good production.

     

    Nothing is exact or full proof ofcourse.

     

    The one thing these sort of stats absolutely do NOT account for is upside. Is the player really good but he mostly is what he is or is he not eleite yet but will coninue to improve year over year for another 3 years before plateauing.

     

    Hankins is really a bit different than those other guys. When I have a moment. I will put him in with nata, wilfork, love, etc. etc. I added him in because he's this year and people have spoken about him. People have been asking for a DT pass rusher so I focused on that group and not the DT run suffers.

     
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