In response to PatsEng's comment:
In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:
Ok. I think BB should really go for a special, high upside player with our 1st this year. I know that sounds obvious and like a no-brainer, but think about this: sometimes it is easy to make the "safe" pick with that 1st round selection, and truthfully that is often the best way to go. I think BB needs to try to find a special difference maker this year, and I think there will be a few guys available who would fit that mold. Hopkins, Trufant, Ogletree, and Datone Jones are the four guys who I like the best at 29 (who have a realistic chance at being there.) I think that these guys are not just special talents at their respective positions, but also low risk players to boot. As much as I like a lot of the DTs, I think that the overall depth of the position will allow BB to grab a similar talent in the 2nd or 3rd round to which he could get in the 1st.
In the 1st esp, late in the first I'm always hesistant to take WRs and Cbs in particular. They are such boom or bust players and the success rate is so small it's not even worth taking the risk. For example in the top 50 so far the Pats have had Butler, Ras, and McCourty and none have stayed at CB for the Pats with McCourty being the best moving to FS. For WRs the ratio is even smaller around the league.
If you bust on 1st round picks it really sets the team up for failure as was evidence in the 07-09 draft years with the Pats. Those poor draft class really caused a ripple effect the Pats are still trying to recover from. When it comes to 1st picks I also go under the assumption that unless it's a QB you stick close to the lines. In otherwords TEs, OL, DL, LBs are the safest to pick and highest hitting.
Now over NFL history it has shown that some of the top end CB and WR talent is typically found in day 2 and amazingly enough with WR the hit rate sometimes increases from round 1 to round 2. Given that I don't mind taking a shot at a higher end DL player but I'd rather take a risk on a Bailey, Rogers, or Wheaton in the second then a Hopkins or Hunter in the 1st
I think you have to separate the Pats' record of picking CBs in the first vs the rest of the league. Bottomline is that most of those among the top CBs in the league were taken in rd 1. Revis 1 14 Asomugha 1 31 Woodson 1 4 Samuel 4 120 Bailey 1 7 Winfield 1 23 T Williams UDFA D Hall 1 8 Finnegan 7 215 Routt 2 38 J oseph 1 24 Cromartie 1 19 Grimes UDFA Greer UDFA Flowers 2 35 Rogers-Cromartie 1 16 Tillman 2 35 L Hall 1 18 R obinson 1 10 Bartell 2 50 Webster 2 43 J ammer 1 5
I would argue even that the Pats may have better success of finding the right CB if they just go with the market consensus on who the first round CBs are. I believe the market has a better success rate of finding the right CB, than BB when BB goes contrarian.
Now, if you are just looking for depth at CB, then that is a different conversation