In response to PatsEng's comment:
Not the best example MB. I didn't like Poe last year and thought he was a 2nd round talent at best. I was shocked someone grabbed him that high and it seems I might have been right. Just because they are a premium doesn't mean someone should reach for them either. Right now Williams is more potential then anything else in my eyes. He has a ton of upside but I haven't seen it translate to his game yet, except in flashes. Considering the team he's on I'm assuming he's getting the proper coaching. Who knows though because these things are like light switches where sometimes the potential just clicks and the person comes roaring on and others it just never clicks and the guy is talked about as potental. That is usually why in the 1st I always target production over potential every time. 2nd and 3rd round is where I think potential players belong.
When you really look at it more players taken in the 1st based on potential have failed then succeeded. It's a very dangerous game. Personally I wouldn't look at Williams until the very back end of the 1st and only if I couldn't trade back/up into the early 2nd. I'd rather target someone with the production in college in the 1st. But, that a philoshopic belief
Are you talking statistical based production?