Re: ***2014 PATRIOTS DRAFT THREAD***
posted at 2/1/2014 4:02 PM EST
In response to PatsEng's comment:
In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:
I agree with you except in one small detail. You are far to generous in your "special" talent assesment. I'd say the 1st 15 players (-3 to +10) on avg are far an away having the opportunity because of god given gifts to be far better than the other players in the draft. (whether heart, attitude, want to, ect., take them there who knows) Those who take advantage of the gifts are the one who teams most often need to game plan for in some way. After that, meh I think many of the guys end up having the same chances regardless of where they get picked. I also believe BB feels atleast somewhat similar and is why he often trades out of the end of the bottom of 1st if he's not in that 1st 15 picks (+10) or so.
Heck 30% of all active NFL rosters are UFA's. There are currently more UFA's active in the NFL than 1st round draft picks.
Look at the Seahawks Defense. #1 Defense in the NFL this season. 6 or 7 of the starting players on that defense were drafted in rounds 4-7.
Seahawks offense on the other hand. 17th in total offense yet they have 8 of their starters on offfense who were drafted in the top 3 rounds.
Seems the unit comprised of the late rounders is the better unit.
In 2012, out of all "drafted" players...
1st rounders filled more rosters by a margin of about 60 more players than any other single rounds.
2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders were all bout the same numbers per round active in the NFL. There were about 50 more than the 5th and 7th rounders.
5th and 7th rounders were next and about equal in numbers represented on active rosters. They were about 20 more than 6th rounders.
6th rounders active in the NFL, for whatever reason, were the least or last represented.
UFA's as stated earlier were the most dominant active workforce on NFL rosters. About 140 more players than 1st rounders.
Low, there are only 32 possible 1st rounders, vs the Pats and Tampa alone have that many in camp. It goes to show that of the 256 players in the draft more players leave the league every year then 256. Of course PS players count as active workforce and the vast majority of teams PS players are UDFA so right there alone there are more PS players then players drafted each year.As for Sea's D, they are the exception not the rule. You don't usually find starting caliber players in UDFA. It generally doesn't happen. How many UDFA's has BB had over the years and how many have made a pro-bowl? Heck ho may were starting players not due to injury? Even more so how many have lasted on the team longer then 3 yrs? Can you find talent in the UDFA's sure, can you find talent in day 3, sure but time and time again it's proven ratio wise the highest likely hood of finding talent is in day 1 and early day 2 and it's not even close. For every round you go back the chances drop in half. In the 1st finding a high level starter is just over 1:2 by th time yu reach UDFA it's around 1:256.
It's true top 15 talent is still the top of the pack but again with BB's own drafts we see a clear difference between top 16-32 players and players in the 50-100 range. Can you find a tope 32 type of player in the 50-100 range, sure but you are more likely to not see that talent. Just look at BB's own drafts and tell me which of those in that range he drafted really lived up to first round talent and didn't drop in the draft because of red flags (ie Gronk's back, Hern's gang affiliations, Vollmers back and lack of football experience)
PS players were not used in the stats, I do not believe??
Also the stats are NOT for a single years worth of new players. They were for all players on the active roster of all teams.
It points out that the majority of even the 1st rnd players are NOT lasting long or at all(Busts).
We agree those top 15-25 guys (I mean the real ones, NOT the drafted ones) are the "special" talents but they do not all get drafted in the top 15-25. BIG difference in what I was saying.
My point is that unless you are drafting in the top 15-25 you have to be really really sure you have one of those guys if you are drafting outside that in the 27-32 range or I see no reason to not try and get a trade down and draft in the next two rounds where the statistics continually show those players to have the same longevity and success rate in that range(on a % basis not individual basis).
In the 2012 reference, the 2012 reference just meant that it was the year the rosters were calculated after final cut down day. NOT that 2012 was the only year the players were calculated for (meaning it was not the 2012 draft yr alone). It was all players on every roster not just the new entries into the league in 2012.
Stats as with all stats clearly do not tell all. Not in the least here either.
In fact in 2012 the JETS had the most 1st rounders on their roster of any team in the league with 16 1st rounders. They went 6-10 on the season.
The 49ers had the 2nd most with 15 1st rounders. They went 11-4 on the season.
Both those teams were outliers as the top "group" of teams had between 8-10 1st rounders.
The report also showed that the teams who most often had sustained quality of teams AND had one of the higher totals for UDFAs on their roster also had another thing in common. Paying a QB top end Money.
Teams like the Packers, Saints, and Cowboys carried the most UDFAs. While teams like the Broncos and Pats were only a couple behind.
At cutdown day in 2012 the Bengals had the most combined 1st and 2nd rounders on the roster with 23. They went 10-6 on the season.
The Ravens, who won the superbowl, and the Patriots both had 17 combined 1st and 2nd rounders on the team.
Sorry to burst peoples bubbles but the Patriots, contrary to peoples beliefs of convincing themselves otherwise, are right up their with the higher number of players taken in the 1st and 2nd round with the exception of 4 or 5 outlier teams.
In fact, if people really wanted to gripe at a hole in their drafting they should be looking at the 3rd and 4th rounders. That's are near the top in 1st rounders (1st tier group outside the outliers). They are right on the line of the outlier group for 2nd rounders. However their 3rd and 4th rounders are on the low side of roster representation compared to the league.
End of cut down day 2012...