3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    Been posting about "stats that matter" to coaches, BB in particular. At any rate, after mentioning several times that he pays attention to 3rd down percentages, this article pops up.

    Efficiency stats like that are among the stats coaches actually use ... as opposed to arbitrary stats like yardage, magic numbers of reps, etcetera. Football is a situational sport ... so you pay attention to the situations that you need to be in, and the situations you need to manage to get there. 

    At any rate, it looks like he kind of agrees with my assessment that winning this game on offense has to do with getting out of the gates well on 1st down so your options aren't limited on later downs. 

    FOXBOROUGH ­­— Patriots coach Bill Belichick was effusive in his praise of the Houston Texans during his press conference Wednesday at Gillette Stadium, describing the AFC South team as one that seemed to excel in all phases of the game.

    But when it came to third-down defense? Well, that’s where Belichick was particularly impressed by Houston’s defense, coordinated by Wade Phillips, the former head coach of the Boncos (1993-94), Bills (1998-2000) and Cowboys (2007-10).

    Belichick seemed to sense a looming battle between the Patriots, who own the league’s best third-down conversion rate (52.6 percent), and the Texans, the NFL’s stingiest third-down defense and the AFC’s best team at 11-1.

    Through their first 12 games, the Texans have held opponents to a 28.2 percent conversion rate on third downs.

    “I think they’re a good defense on every down,” Belichick said. “But on third down, they rush well and they cover well. [Kareem] Jackson and [Jonathan] Joseph have done a good job all year for them [at the cornerback spots] but they’ve had other guys come in there and do a good job for them.

    “Of course, they can rush and create a lot of long yardage situations, so that’s helped their pass rush,” Belichick said. “They’re a good third-down defense, one of the best in the last 9-10 years statistically at under 30 percent, which is pretty impressive.

    “They do everything well. They rush, they cover, they blitz, they mix it up.”

     

     
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    Seems rather obvious since 95% of the time a stop on 3rd results in a punt and possession change.  Apart from the chance at gaining some field position there isn't much difference in a turnover and a punt.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    I have a feeling that 3rd down percentage is gonna take a hit Monday night.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TSWFAN. Show TSWFAN's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Been posting about "stats that matter" to coaches, BB in particular. At any rate, after mentioning several times that he pays attention to 3rd down percentages, this article pops up.

    Efficiency stats like that are among the stats coaches actually use ... as opposed to arbitrary stats like yardage, magic numbers of reps, etcetera. Football is a situational sport ... so you pay attention to the situations that you need to be in, and the situations you need to manage to get there. 

    At any rate, it looks like he kind of agrees with my assessment that winning this game on offense has to do with getting out of the gates well on 1st down so your options aren't limited on later downs. 

    FOXBOROUGH ­­— Patriots coach Bill Belichick was effusive in his praise of the Houston Texans during his press conference Wednesday at Gillette Stadium, describing the AFC South team as one that seemed to excel in all phases of the game.

    But when it came to third-down defense? Well, that’s where Belichick was particularly impressed by Houston’s defense, coordinated by Wade Phillips, the former head coach of the Boncos (1993-94), Bills (1998-2000) and Cowboys (2007-10).

    Belichick seemed to sense a looming battle between the Patriots, who own the league’s best third-down conversion rate (52.6 percent), and the Texans, the NFL’s stingiest third-down defense and the AFC’s best team at 11-1.

    Through their first 12 games, the Texans have held opponents to a 28.2 percent conversion rate on third downs.

    “I think they’re a good defense on every down,” Belichick said. “But on third down, they rush well and they cover well. [Kareem] Jackson and [Jonathan] Joseph have done a good job all year for them [at the cornerback spots] but they’ve had other guys come in there and do a good job for them.

    “Of course, they can rush and create a lot of long yardage situations, so that’s helped their pass rush,” Belichick said. “They’re a good third-down defense, one of the best in the last 9-10 years statistically at under 30 percent, which is pretty impressive.

    “They do everything well. They rush, they cover, they blitz, they mix it up.”

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Good to see you post. will be watching 3rd down conversion rate and see how we do against the blitz.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    Nice info,ZB. The Pats run the best offense in NFL. Texans have a great defense, but are minus some key defenders (are Jospeh and Brooks Reed going to play). When you look at the players Houston let go (Ryans, Williams) they have done a very good job replacing that production.

    I look at it from a different angle I want to see how The PATS D performs situational football (3rd down conversion, red zone etc...) against the Texans offense. Holding the big plays to a minimum would be nice. The Texans offense might not be as good on frozen turf. Still need the defense to play big against a very well-balanced offense with many weapons.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from palookaski. Show palookaski's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Been posting about "stats that matter" to coaches, BB in particular. At any rate, after mentioning several times that he pays attention to 3rd down percentages, this article pops up.

    Efficiency stats like that are among the stats coaches actually use ...

    Belichick seemed to sense a looming battle between the Patriots, who own the league’s best third-down conversion rate (52.6 percent), and the Texans, the NFL’s stingiest third-down defense and the AFC’s best team at 11-1.

    Through their first 12 games, the Texans have held opponents to a 28.2 percent conversion rate on third downs. [/QUOTE]
    Now that is a stat to watch.  Best third down conversion for Pats  O (52.6%) vs the stingiest allowed  for Texans D at 28.2%.  That is info that makes a challenging game interesting to watch.
    Thanks for contributing ZB,  I/we enjoy you ;-) Keep up your good work.

    Have a good evening

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimmytantric. Show jimmytantric's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Been posting about "stats that matter" to coaches, BB in particular. At any rate, after mentioning several times that he pays attention to 3rd down percentages, this article pops up.

    Efficiency stats like that are among the stats coaches actually use ... as opposed to arbitrary stats like yardage, magic numbers of reps, etcetera. Football is a situational sport ... so you pay attention to the situations that you need to be in, and the situations you need to manage to get there. 

    At any rate, it looks like he kind of agrees with my assessment that winning this game on offense has to do with getting out of the gates well on 1st down so your options aren't limited on later downs. 

    FOXBOROUGH ­­— Patriots coach Bill Belichick was effusive in his praise of the Houston Texans during his press conference Wednesday at Gillette Stadium, describing the AFC South team as one that seemed to excel in all phases of the game.

    But when it came to third-down defense? Well, that’s where Belichick was particularly impressed by Houston’s defense, coordinated by Wade Phillips, the former head coach of the Boncos (1993-94), Bills (1998-2000) and Cowboys (2007-10).

    Belichick seemed to sense a looming battle between the Patriots, who own the league’s best third-down conversion rate (52.6 percent), and the Texans, the NFL’s stingiest third-down defense and the AFC’s best team at 11-1.

    Through their first 12 games, the Texans have held opponents to a 28.2 percent conversion rate on third downs.

    “I think they’re a good defense on every down,” Belichick said. “But on third down, they rush well and they cover well. [Kareem] Jackson and [Jonathan] Joseph have done a good job all year for them [at the cornerback spots] but they’ve had other guys come in there and do a good job for them.

    “Of course, they can rush and create a lot of long yardage situations, so that’s helped their pass rush,” Belichick said. “They’re a good third-down defense, one of the best in the last 9-10 years statistically at under 30 percent, which is pretty impressive.

    “They do everything well. They rush, they cover, they blitz, they mix it up.”

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Somethings gotta give hey ZB?  I say Brady lights it up like the 4th of July--aint gonna need 3rd down much--Houston has a very poor Pass Defense. Something like 360 YPG in the last 2 games. Pats  34-21--now we all can just relax and enjoy the game.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Quagmire3. Show Quagmire3's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    History has shown that a great defense will normally beat a great offense (offense wins games, defense wins championships). I am hoping that ht eTexans D is beat up enough that they are not great monday night and we can take them out.

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to bobbysu's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What do you consider 3rd and long? To me anything double digits is 3rd and long. Majority of times 3rd and long is dictated by penalties. Even if you ran 2 times and gained 4 yards, 3rd down and 6 is manageable in todays NFL.

    [/QUOTE]


    6+.  Since not a single RB that I've ever heard of has averaged 6 yards per carry for a season a 3rd and 6 will result in a punt more than it will a first down.  3rd and 7 even more likely to punt, 3rd and 8 more than that and so on and so forth.  With QB's completing 65% of passes for 7-10 yards per atempt a third and 7 will result in a first down more often than it will a punt.

    You could run it on 3rd and 9, but history has shown it will fail mre than a pass.  Yeah, but what if they know it's a pass?  To that I say, don't outsmart yourself.  This football things been going on a while.  Everything has been tried.  3rd and long, passing makes the most sense.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to shenanigan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    6+.  Since not a single RB that I've ever heard of has averaged 6 yards per carry for a season a 3rd and 6 will result in a punt more than it will a first down.  3rd and 7 even more likely to punt, 3rd and 8 more than that and so on and so forth.  With QB's completing 65% of passes for 7-10 yards per atempt a third and 7 will result in a first down more often than it will a punt.

    You could run it on 3rd and 9, but history has shown it will fail mre than a pass.  Yeah, but what if they know it's a pass?  To that I say, don't outsmart yourself.  This football things been going on a while.  Everything has been tried.  3rd and long, passing makes the most sense.

    [/QUOTE]

    Are you kidding?  Haven't you been reading the pearls of wisdom on this board?  The only way an offense can ever be successful is if the playcalling is unpredictable.  That means having an equal probability of run or pass whatever the situation.  Unless the playcall doesn't work, in which case the offensive coordinator needs to be fired immediately.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to shenanigan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Seems rather obvious since 95% of the time a stop on 3rd results in a punt and possession change.  Apart from the chance at gaining some field position there isn't much difference in a turnover and a punt.

    [/QUOTE]

    Amazing factual post. Turnovers are pretty over-rated as a matter of fact. A 3rd and out, or stright stop is often just as good. They are big in opposing territory though, because they get the offense good field position. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have a feeling that 3rd down percentage is gonna take a hit Monday night.

    [/QUOTE]

    Where would this board be without you man?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to shenanigan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    6+.  Since not a single RB that I've ever heard of has averaged 6 yards per carry for a season a 3rd and 6 will result in a punt more than it will a first down.  3rd and 7 even more likely to punt, 3rd and 8 more than that and so on and so forth.  With QB's completing 65% of passes for 7-10 yards per atempt a third and 7 will result in a first down more often than it will a punt.

    You could run it on 3rd and 9, but history has shown it will fail mre than a pass.  Yeah, but what if they know it's a pass?  To that I say, don't outsmart yourself.  This football things been going on a while.  Everything has been tried.  3rd and long, passing makes the most sense.

    [/QUOTE]

    Are you kidding?  Haven't you been reading the pearls of wisdom on this board?  The only way an offense can ever be successful is if the playcalling is unpredictable.  That means having an equal probability of run or pass whatever the situation.  Unless the playcall doesn't work, in which case the offensive coordinator needs to be fired immediately.

    [/QUOTE]

    Haha. Punt on first down!

    No. Better yet ... try this logic. 

    I've noticed that the team that kneels on the football more in a game wins 99% of the time. Therefore, NE should come out and have Tom Brady kneel down 50% of the time to ensure a proper kneel/regular play ratio to guarantee a win. 

    Remember how many games during the early 2000s that Weiss had Brady take a knee in the 4th? It IS the secret to winning. 

    Logically, I am right ... because the team that kneels on the football does win the vast majority of games. So don't dispute me. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: 3rd Down Percentage ... Stats that Matter

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to shenanigan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    6+.  Since not a single RB that I've ever heard of has averaged 6 yards per carry for a season a 3rd and 6 will result in a punt more than it will a first down.  3rd and 7 even more likely to punt, 3rd and 8 more than that and so on and so forth.  With QB's completing 65% of passes for 7-10 yards per atempt a third and 7 will result in a first down more often than it will a punt.

    You could run it on 3rd and 9, but history has shown it will fail mre than a pass.  Yeah, but what if they know it's a pass?  To that I say, don't outsmart yourself.  This football things been going on a while.  Everything has been tried.  3rd and long, passing makes the most sense.

    [/QUOTE]

    Are you kidding?  Haven't you been reading the pearls of wisdom on this board?  The only way an offense can ever be successful is if the playcalling is unpredictable.  That means having an equal probability of run or pass whatever the situation.  Unless the playcall doesn't work, in which case the offensive coordinator needs to be fired immediately.

    [/QUOTE]

    Haha. Punt on first down!

    No. Better yet ... try this logic. 

    I've noticed that the team that kneels on the football more in a game wins 99% of the time. Therefore, NE should come out and have Tom Brady kneel down 50% of the time to ensure a proper kneel/regular play ratio to guarantee a win. 

    Remember how many games during the early 2000s that Weiss had Brady take a knee in the 4th? It IS the secret to winning. 

    Logically, I am right ... because the team that kneels on the football does win the vast majority of games. So don't dispute me. 

    [/QUOTE]

    LOL, you are the master.

     
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