#99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

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    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

    BB does a nice job with late round and undrafted rookies, but I think fans tend to forget that many other teams pick up good guys in late rounds and rookie free agency.  Antonio Gates, Arian Foster, James Harrison, London Fletcher, Jeff Saturday, Wes Welker, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Brian Waters, Priest Holmes . . . and many others . . . were all UDRFAs. 

     

     
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    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    BB does a nice job with late round and undrafted rookies, but I think fans tend to forget that many other teams pick up good guys in late rounds and rookie free agency.  Antonio Gates, Arian Foster, James Harrison, London Fletcher, Jeff Saturday, Wes Welker, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Brian Waters, Priest Holmes . . . and many others . . . were all UDRFAs. 

     



    I'd say BB is better than most at picking up those late and UDFA players which builds great depth overall but generally those UDFA's and late round picks generally don't become starters. Now Dennard and Thompkins are special cases because they both were day 2 talents which puts them in the potential starting talent level players but fell because of off-field red flags. For the most part even BB doesn't find starters in the late rounds and UDFA's. So for me before you can be called a great drafter it's all about the upfront talent and that's where I think BB falls a bit short in some positions. Now 1st round I don't think I'd want anyone else making the pick. BB hasn't busted on any 1st round pick (though Ras you could consider as a late 1st roudner). Even the worst picks gave at least something for a couple of years. It's really day 2 that BB seems to fall behind the rest of the pack in finding players and starters. Esp when it comes to DB's, LB's, and WR's (up to what might be this past year for WR's). Unfortunately that seems to be where he enjoys to draft the most. IMO, if BB trusted his scouting staff more to let them handle the day 2 picks (not nessecailly trades just more say on picks) and BB took over day 3 completely we might see more productive drafts

     
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    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

    Very good potential. Ideally I could see him as a good situational pass rusher, but that might take some time. And I agree with most that he could put on weight that makes him stronger at POA.

     
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    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN


    Why not? If Buchanan can be effective against in real games and improve the pass rush - it would help out mask potential problems in the secondary (i.e., AW not working out...)

     
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    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    BB does a nice job with late round and undrafted rookies, but I think fans tend to forget that many other teams pick up good guys in late rounds and rookie free agency.  Antonio Gates, Arian Foster, James Harrison, London Fletcher, Jeff Saturday, Wes Welker, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Brian Waters, Priest Holmes . . . and many others . . . were all UDRFAs. 

     

     



    I'd say BB is better than most at picking up those late and UDFA players which builds great depth overall but generally those UDFA's and late round picks generally don't become starters. Now Dennard and Thompkins are special cases because they both were day 2 talents which puts them in the potential starting talent level players but fell because of off-field red flags. For the most part even BB doesn't find starters in the late rounds and UDFA's. So for me before you can be called a great drafter it's all about the upfront talent and that's where I think BB falls a bit short in some positions. Now 1st round I don't think I'd want anyone else making the pick. BB hasn't busted on any 1st round pick (though Ras you could consider as a late 1st roudner). Even the worst picks gave at least something for a couple of years. It's really day 2 that BB seems to fall behind the rest of the pack in finding players and starters. Esp when it comes to DB's, LB's, and WR's (up to what might be this past year for WR's). Unfortunately that seems to be where he enjoys to draft the most. IMO, if BB trusted his scouting staff more to let them handle the day 2 picks (not nessecailly trades just more say on picks) and BB took over day 3 completely we might see more productive drafts

     

    [/QUOTE]

    My problem with judging BB's success or failure at any point in the draft is that I really don't know what the average success rate is at those points in the draft.  It seems to me most first round picks work out and a large number of second and third round picks don't (across the whole league).  To know whether BB is doing better or worse than the average, I'd really need to know the average and I admit I just haven't done that analysis nor have I seen anyone else do it in a truly rigourous way. 

     

     
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    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

     

    My problem with judging BB's success or failure at any point in the draft is that I really don't know what the average success rate is at those points in the draft.  It seems to me most first round picks work out and a large number of second and third round picks don't (across the whole league).  To know whether BB is doing better or worse than the average, I'd really need to know the average and I admit I just haven't done that analysis nor have I seen anyone else do it in a truly rigourous way. 

     

     



    I'll try to find the chart again but I pulled it up at the draft this year. Essentially it said that 50% of 1st rounders become better than average starters with half of the remaining picks becoming solid contributers or just average starters. In the 2nd you typically find 40-50% eventually becoming starters but the only 20% are more than average starters with another 20% becoming solid players. From there the starters ratio starts to drop significantly but the amount of hits on players gets reduced by half. So in the 1st where 25% really kind of bust out, the 2nd round 30-40% turn into busts while the rest give you atleast something from there 3rd round jump to about 60% bust and finding a starter drops to below 10% and so on and so on. So from rounds 6-UDFA BB is ahead of the curve and in the 1st he's far ahead of the curve but usually in the 2-5 rounds he's just average or below average. Which means all that trading back into those mid rounds hasn't given him a big advantage in finding players with the exception that quantity means he'll find more players of less quality (non-starters but contributers) vs moving up in the 1st he tends to hit more and you get a higher quality player but you have to sacrific quanity in those mid rounds which means less quality in the depth unless you supplement it with FA's. Which to me the amount we spend on low risk/high reward type of players that get cut can be better used for quality depth pieces. You have to spend somewhere whether that's in the draft or in FA but casting a net wide for low risk/high reward in both the draft and FA really hurts you if you hit a long string of misses.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    You have to spend somewhere whether that's in the draft or in FA but casting a net wide for low risk/high reward in both the draft and FA really hurts you if you hit a long string of misses.


    Yes, Patriot's fans have suffered over the past decade... I wonder what we were doing in the 80's then?

     
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    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    BB does a nice job with late round and undrafted rookies, but I think fans tend to forget that many other teams pick up good guys in late rounds and rookie free agency.  Antonio Gates, Arian Foster, James Harrison, London Fletcher, Jeff Saturday, Wes Welker, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Brian Waters, Priest Holmes . . . and many others . . . were all UDRFAs. 

     




    And I think fans tend to forget that many other teams pick up guys in the 1st and 2nd  rounds that just don't make it.

    Rolando Mclain

    Ryan Mathews

    Jahvid best

    Jerry Hughes

    Dexter Mccluster

    Sergio Kindle

    Jimmy Clausen

    Taylor Mays

    Toby Gearhart

    Monterio Hardesty

    Ryan Williams

    Titus Young

    Lance Kendricks

    Daquan Bowers

    Daniel Thomas

    Jake Locker

    Blaine Gabbert

    Prince Amakura

    Jonathan Baldwin

    Mark Ingram

    Muhammad Wilkerson

    Tyson Jackson

    Aaron Curry

    Heyward Bey

    Aaron Maybin

    Knowshon Moreno

    Donald brown

    Beanie Wells

    Pat White

    Mohhamed Massaquio

    were all 1st and 2nd round picks that have not lived up to their status. These are only names I thought fans here would recognize. Just as you try and take away from what Belichick has done in later rounds by saying "other teams pick up good guys too", I say other teams miss on guys in the 2nd round too, and 1st, and 3rd, and 4rth, etc, etc....

    The draft is a crap shoot. Team building is more then how many draft picks you hit on.

     
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    Re: #99 MICHAEL BUCHANAN

    Given time and circumstance this kid could be the rook that impresses the most by season's end - or not.  The talent and athleticism are clearly there.  The question will be whether he can impress enough to get on the field and then do something with the opportunity during the regular season.  I totally agree with woz; he could be quite good or not.

     

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