A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

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    A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    Can Ravens' stout D check Patriots' dynamic offense?

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8261caa2/article/can-ravens-stout-d-check-patriots-dynamic-offense?module=HP11_hot_topics


    » Huddle, Brady under center (15 run, 5 pass): The 15 runs produced 50 yards and were predominantly used at the start of series. The five passes yielded three completions for 34 yards and a touchdown. Nate Solder reported tackle-eligible for one pass play as an extra blocker, and it resulted in a touchdown.

    » Huddle, Brady in shotgun (2 run, 8 pass): The two runs produced just eight yards, but this aspect of their offense has been used more extensively in past games. Because of that, Lewis can't make a pass-defense check every time. Brady completed seven of his eight passes for 79 yards.

    » No huddle, Brady under center (11 run, 3 pass): The Patriots really stressed the Broncos with this package by putting Aaron Hernandez in the backfield as a running back and handing him the ball four times for 56 yards. Belichick knows this package creates significant matchup problems for any defense, and if the Ravens make a run check to Hernandez in the backfield, expect Brady to drop back and get Hernandez out on Lewis.

    » No huddle, Brady in shotgun (1 run, 19 pass): This is the most dangerous package the Patriots present right now. Lewis may know it is a passing set, but he also is going to watch a cut-up of this package that's going to have 12 completions for 154 yards and four touchdowns. Pretty imposing stuff.

    If you look at the Patriots' offense in a simpler form, grouping all the shotgun snaps together, you get a big pass tip: 3 run, 27 pass. Ironically, that may be exactly what Belichick and Brady want you to think. Thus, look for early run plays from shotgun!

    Likewise, the Pats have been run-dominant with Brady under center (26 run, 8 pass), so get ready for Brady to break that run tendency with early passes from these sets.

    There's more,

    Go Patriots

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    i can't believe nobody has commented on this.

    this topic used to fire up discussions that got people banned from this board. finally here is data confirming what some people here have been saying -- the pats o is predictable despite the balance. so far, nobody's been able to figure out how to stop what they can anticipate, so that's been good so far.

    let's hope nobody figures it out until after the sb... or, that all this predictability is really just bb, tb and ob setting up the opponents for a big surprise in the two remaining games.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    i can't believe nobody has commented on this. this topic used to fire up discussions that got people banned from this board. finally here is data confirming what some people here have been saying -- the pats o is predictable despite the balance. so far, nobody's been able to figure out how to stop what they can anticipate, so that's been good so far. let's hope nobody figures it out until after the sb... or, that all this predictability is really just bb, tb and ob setting up the opponents for a big surprise in the two remaining games.
    Posted by seattlepat70


    Pat,
    While the instance cited may show tendency, the point is that the Pats are not in shot gun, under center or no huddle with only one option in play. Brady is reading the defense and then calling the play. So the Pats are deciding run or pass depending on what the D is doing, regardless of formation or huddle.
    Now, if the play does not work, you can say Brady is reading the D incorrectly, but it appears that the run game is not working due to a breakdown in one on one matchups. Our Oline is simply not winning battles consistantly enough.
    Factor in that the short pass is working so well, until the other team figures ut how to stop it, why stop using it?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from patsfaninpa420. Show patsfaninpa420's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    "That game got away from the Patriots almost immediately, as the Ravens held a 24-0 lead after one quarter of play. New England turned the ball over three times on very short fields (at the 17-, 25- and 9-yard lines), allowing Baltimore to jump out in front. The Ravens only scored nine points the rest of the game, but it was too late for the Patriots to mount a comeback."

    I think this says it all right here. This year the Pats have shown that they can mount a comeback if falling behind significantly, their offense is more dynamic and their defense is better. The Ravens haven't really changed much, they've only gotten older.
         Something in my gut tells me that we're going to see a repeat of last week although I'd be perfectly happy with a 1 point win.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    SP70,
    I don't think this data suggests really anything. If anything, it says to the opponent, "Hey, we can run or pass out of any formation...Guess what we will do Buzzards, commit your resources presnap, and you better hope you have guessed correctly"...
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    SP70, I don't think this data suggests really anything. If anything, it says to the opponent, "Hey, we can run or pass out of any formation...Guess what we will do Buzzards, commit your resources presnap, and you better hope you have guessed correctly"...
    Posted by PatsLifer

    Pats, I agree here.. also... this can be applied to any team and the formations they present.  Every team has tendencies and the one tendency I like about the Pats is they outscore their opponent more often than the Patriots are outscored!!
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcour382. Show jcour382's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    phil sims harps on it every game ...every time he sees brady under center he calls out the run play...  so he watches film and is charting tendencies just like the players...   but really all teams probably do that every week and still cant stop them... mostly cant even slow them down... even in the games we lost
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from DavidSeattle. Show DavidSeattle's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    i can't believe nobody has commented on this. this topic used to fire up discussions that got people banned from this board. finally here is data confirming what some people here have been saying -- the pats o is predictable despite the balance. so far, nobody's been able to figure out how to stop what they can anticipate, so that's been good so far. let's hope nobody figures it out until after the sb... or, that all this predictability is really just bb, tb and ob setting up the opponents for a big surprise in the two remaining games.
    Posted by seattlepat70

    Pat, are you still in Seattle? Where do Pats Fans gather for the Games?
     There used to be a group at Floyds in Q.A.?
     
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    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    I've been saying this for years - their play-calling and especially execution has improved, but they haven't had diversity since Corey Dillon retired

    their entire running play consists of a shotgun draw play, a singleback zone-blocking off-tackle run, and now the Hernandez shift.  i blame bad playcalling in part for Maroney's failure - they only ever ran that one singleback zone-blocking off-tackle run for him, no counters, no tosses, no dives, no i-formation it was ridiculous.  they still do this to BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Law Firm doesn't have the ballcarrier vision to be taking full advantage of a zone-blocking run which makes him predictable as fck and results in the underwhelming 3-3.5 yard runs we see from him.

    anyhow, i hope McDaniels has a lot to add to this offense.  he didn't do as bad in St. Louis as people claim.  his receivers there dropped more passes than Green Bay against the Giants, except on a regular basis.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from rochfan. Show rochfan's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    Show me a team who when under center doesn't run more and when in shotgun doesn't pass more. If a team uses both types of exchanges they probably have the same tendencies. This does not strike me as unusual.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies : Pat, are you still in Seattle? Where do Pats Fans gather for the Games?  There used to be a group at Floyds in Q.A.?
    Posted by DavidSeattle


    am in ca this week... lucky me to avoid the snow. i hear it's really bad out in the eastside, past exit 15.

    anyway, i've never been to that place in queen anne, but i heard of a place where boston fans go. actually, now that i am trying tor ememebr where i read it, it might be on these boards.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies : GB is one.  They use a ton of eye formation with Kuhn and then he's either involved in playaction , left in to block or sneaky on checkdowns. Huge passing weapon in a traditional running set. On the flip side, they'll run Grant or Starks out of a shotgun.  All you have to do is watch how they do it. Yes, I know they lost and played poorly and were rusty, but that's another story. Part of it is baiting and setting up your opponent.  Once NE showed Hernandez as an effective RB last week and them moved him around, it was all over. You had Edelman wide, Branch in the slot, Branch wide left, etc. Denver never saw that other than a random  one-off Hernandez run or two towards the end of the season. It was just a classic example of running people in and out of formations so it wasn't predictable whatsoever. I don't know if they held back on this for the playoffs (very possible and would explain a lot) or if McDaniels walked in and asked O'Brien if he was insane for struggling with this kind of sick weaponry or what (Prolate tells us Brady is playing with one hand "tied behind his back", lol), but that's the idea. SHow a lot early and often. Been saying this all year. If the theory of them holding back holds true, expect even more one-off/first time stuff again this week.  It could very well be BB held off on stuff all year which is something I wouldn't agree with, but if it's because he's slow to install some stuff knowing he doesn't have to tip his hand anyway, he looks like a genius again and the haters are standing around with their pants around their ankles with dung rolling down their legs just like the old days. I am starting to wonder if they've been scripting BRAND NEW plays for a while, practicing them over and over, because they knew they can play vanilla and walk by the Denvers, Skins, Colts, Bills and Dolphins, etc. BB always pulls out brand new stuff out of nowhere on D, so I guess why not on O? In the mean time, they struggle in those games just bait other teams into thinking they have BB and the Pats where they want them. Somewhere, BB is rubbing his hands together with a amirk on his face. When you have guys who can match up well and simple execution and matchups are all you need, you can do this stuff. GB and NOs could do this too, but maybe they shot their wad too soon.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII



    Rusty, they started using Hernandez as a running back (and also Gronk once or twice) a few games ago.  It's been something they've clearly been working on to get more diversity in the offense.  When you have a limited number of talented players, you need to use them in multiple and unusual ways to get diversity.  That's what they're doing with their TEs.  They obviously feel that they can't get (effective) diversity by playing I-formation football with a FB and a tailback as some seem to want. Instead, they are looking at ways to incorporate the TEs into the running game--not just as blockers but as ball carriers.  It's been very effective so far, and it started before McDaniels came here, so it was either BB or Bill O'Brien who developed it. 

    Basically if the same five eligible receivers/runners are going to be on the field all the time, you need to use them in very many ways or you're going to become one-dimensional.  Give O'Brien and Bellichick credit where credit is due.  They are creating some extra dimensions by using Gronk and Hernandez in unconventional and unexpected ways. 


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    While reading the article on tendencies, you are also reading the RESULTS of those tendencies, correct? No one is stopping them! Why change it up?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from rusco. Show rusco's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    in 2009 the only long threat was Moss, and the only rb was baloney! A little different this time around
     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    You still think Brady has "one hand tied behind his back"? 
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII



    Yes, Brady clearly has a very restricted number of receiving options for a team that relies so heavily on the pass.  Most great passing offenses end the regular season with 6 or 7 receivers with at least 20 catches and at least 200 yards receiving.  The Pats have just 4 players with those kinds of numbers.  There are basically two ways to get diversity in an offense:
    • Mix up the players: Use many different players in many different combinations
    • Mix up the schemes: Use the players in many different roles, from many different formations, and in many different types of plays
    All teams do some of both, but the Pats have had to rely unusually heavily on mixing up schemes, because they utilize a very limited number of receivers in each game. When I say Brady has "one hand tied behind his back" I simply mean he has a limited number of receivers to utilize (unlike Brees and Rogers, who have at least 7 guys at the 20 catches/200 yards mark).  What Belichick and O'Brien have done well as the season has progressed is coming up with new ways to utilize the same four players.  Hernandez, in particular, is now playing four roles--TE, slot receiver, wide out, and running back.  His versatility is allowing the Pats to make up for weaknesses in the quality or depth of the talent at wide out and receiving back.  It's a tribute both to the talent of the four main receivers the Patriots have and also the creativity of the coaching staff. 
     
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonSportsFan111. Show BostonSportsFan111's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies : Yes, Brady clearly has a very restricted number of receiving options for a team that relies so heavily on the pass.  Most great passing offenses end the regular season with 6 or 7 receivers with at least 20 catches and at least 200 yards receiving.  The Pats have just 4 players with those kinds of numbers.  There are basically two ways to get diversity in an offense: Mix up the players: Use many different players in many different combinations Mix up the schemes: Use the players in many different roles, from many different formations, and in many different types of plays All teams do some of both, but the Pats have had to rely unusually heavily on mixing up schemes, because they utilize a very limited number of receivers in each game. When I say Brady has "one hand tied behind his back" I simply mean he has a limited number of receivers to utilize (unlike Brees and Rogers, who have at least 7 guys at the 20 catches/200 yards mark).  What Belichick and O'Brien have done well as the season has progressed is coming up with new ways to utilize the same four players.  Hernandez, in particular, is now playing four roles--TE, slot receiver, wide out, and running back.  His versatility is allowing the Pats to make up for weaknesses in the quality or depth of the talent at wide out and receiving back.  It's a tribute both to the talent of the four main receivers the Patriots have and also the creativity of the coaching staff.   
    Posted by prolate0spheroid


    Pats have scored an average of 37+ points a game for the past 9 games (all wins) by getting the ball into the hands of these 4 players. It is a GOOD thing to consistently get the ball to the guys who make plays and score touchdowns. Brady will take what the defensive gives him, but he will also go to the guys he has confidence in. Last weeks first offensive play was a check down pass to BJGE for 9 yards. This year, neither BJGE or Woodhead have show the best of hands out of the backfield. Woody seemed more consistent at catching the ball last year, it has never been a strength of BJGE. But if the backs underneath are open due to the Ravens trying to cover Welker, Gronk, Hernandez and Branch, TB will use them without hesitation. Screen passes (to the backs, TEs or WRs) may be a big part of the offense tomorrow to counteract the Ravens pass rush.
     
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    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    i can't believe nobody has commented on this. this topic used to fire up discussions that got people banned from this board. finally here is data confirming what some people here have been saying -- the pats o is predictable despite the balance. so far, nobody's been able to figure out how to stop what they can anticipate, so that's been good so far. let's hope nobody figures it out until after the sb... or, that all this predictability is really just bb, tb and ob setting up the opponents for a big surprise in the two remaining games.
    Posted by seattlepat70


    No, I think teams understand that if they can get to Brady, they have a good chance to beat the Patriots. It's just that, most of the time, they haven't been able to stop the Patriots consistently.

    It's the FEAR of knowing that certain teams have a better chance than others to stop Brady - that drives us fans a little loopy
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    Can Ravens' stout D check Patriots' dynamic offense? http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8261caa2/article/can-ravens-stout-d-check-patriots-dynamic-offense?module=HP11_hot_topics » Huddle, Brady under center (15 run, 5 pass): The 15 runs produced 50 yards and were predominantly used at the start of series. The five passes yielded three completions for 34 yards and a touchdown. Nate Solder reported tackle-eligible for one pass play as an extra blocker, and it resulted in a touchdown. » Huddle, Brady in shotgun (2 run, 8 pass): The two runs produced just eight yards, but this aspect of their offense has been used more extensively in past games. Because of that, Lewis can't make a pass-defense check every time. Brady completed seven of his eight passes for 79 yards. » No huddle, Brady under center (11 run, 3 pass): The Patriots really stressed the Broncos with this package by putting Aaron Hernandez in the backfield as a running back and handing him the ball four times for 56 yards. Belichick knows this package creates significant matchup problems for any defense, and if the Ravens make a run check to Hernandez in the backfield, expect Brady to drop back and get Hernandez out on Lewis. » No huddle, Brady in shotgun (1 run, 19 pass): This is the most dangerous package the Patriots present right now. Lewis may know it is a passing set, but he also is going to watch a cut-up of this package that's going to have 12 completions for 154 yards and four touchdowns. Pretty imposing stuff. If you look at the Patriots' offense in a simpler form, grouping all the shotgun snaps together, you get a big pass tip: 3 run, 27 pass. Ironically, that may be exactly what Belichick and Brady want you to think. Thus, look for early run plays from shotgun! Likewise, the Pats have been run-dominant with Brady under center (26 run, 8 pass), so get ready for Brady to break that run tendency with early passes from these sets. There's more, Go Patriots
    Posted by DavidSeattle


    Offensive tendencies, by their very title, can't be seen in one game. 

    There was so much about that game that was anomalous. The regular game plan was more pass heavy than any we've seen in a while at 60% (32-22 before they came out in heavy sets to kill the clock). They ran about 50% shotgun, and 50% spread. 

    It heavily skews the numbers. And it certainly doesn't show a "tendency," because when Baltimore looks at the film from the preceding 16 games, they will se a very, very different tendency.

    It is nice, however, to drop a bomb on Denver that way, because now Baltimore has all that footage of NE playing this way to think about.  
     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    I looked at the whole article.  Flacco is discussed, but he's not playing against anybody.  There's no mention in the article of the New England defense, the one that showed up against Denver, the one that put all those zeros and threes on the scoreboard in the combined second and third quarters of the last 8 games.  This defense is flying under the radar.

    Just put up with the defense's softness on the back side of the 50 yard line.  It plays tougher from the 45 to the 35 (just out of field goal range) and from the 15 yard line inward (first and goal is almost a touchdown).  When points are on the line, the D really wants to stuff Rice all day.  Otherwise they want an INT out of Flacco. 

    Denver was a young, ill-coached team ripe for panicking under the hurryup.  I still have hopes that Baltimore's older defensive players won't hold up under the hurryup, and that they won't be allowed to rotate their defensive line either, which wears them all down to ineffectiveness.  If T-Sizzle can't explode and can't push anymore, he's going nowhere fast.
     
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    Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies

    In Response to Re: A Good Article from NFL.com on Pats Offense's Tendancies:
    I've been saying this for years - their play-calling and especially execution has improved, but they haven't had diversity since Corey Dillon retired their entire running play consists of a shotgun draw play, a singleback zone-blocking off-tackle run, and now the Hernandez shift.  i blame bad playcalling in part for Maroney's failure - they only ever ran that one singleback zone-blocking off-tackle run for him, no counters, no tosses, no dives, no i-formation it was ridiculous.  they still do this to BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Law Firm doesn't have the ballcarrier vision to be taking full advantage of a zone-blocking run which makes him predictable as fck and results in the underwhelming 3-3.5 yard runs we see from him. anyhow, i hope McDaniels has a lot to add to this offense.  he didn't do as bad in St. Louis as people claim.  his receivers there dropped more passes than Green Bay against the Giants, except on a regular basis.
    Posted by Artist-Frmrly-Knwn-As-NickC1188


    I agree with part of this and then completely disagree with part of it. I agree that the offense was more diverse when Dillon was here. The part I disagree with is why it's not as diverse since - I think it's the runners we have had since.

    Maroney didn't fail because of the way he was used...Maroney failed because he didn't work hard and was an immature player that had issues. He also ran too up right, had poor instincts, vision and couldn't time blocks well. He couldn't consistently break tackles and never improved as a pass catching threat - which really could of made him/our offense more diverse. NFL coaches understand how to game plan, what can you do with a guy that just wasn't a good player?

    Green Ellis in my opinion is a guy that does have good vision and patience to follow his blocks, I think his problem is a lack of explosiveness and speed. He gets absolutely killed in that off tackle run and you'll never see this guy cut back and take advantage of holes that are there. Defenses know he can't get outside, so they crowd the middle and are waiting for him. He doesn't fumble and scores from the one, but he almost never gets more than what's there and sometimes he doesn't even get that.

    I think what we see is what is best for the talent we have, I'm sure they'd like to be more diverse. Until a guy like Ridley or Vareen can get out there and not make mistakes, I think we'll continue to see it like it is.  
     
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