A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    In response to sporter81's comment:

    It's both offense and defense that have not been producing in the 4th qtr these past 3 games. 38-6 or whatever it is says it all. They have probably been the worst in the NFL during this 4th qtr stretch. I think anyone would agree with that, every publication I've read say the same thing too.




    Yeah, we get the 4th quarter thing. And we know, or should know, Brady has been sacked in late crucial drives in all 3 losses and we all cringed at the stupidity of Lloyd's stupid penalty in the last one.

     

    But the thing is, the defense has been staked to leads they just cannot hold. That's the bigger problem than if the offense scores their points in the 1st or 4th quarter. If we shifted half their league leading scoring from the first to the 4th quarter it would be the same thing.



    38-6 says it all. They can't score and they can't stop anyone. I expect that will change though. Both sides will get it together IMO.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from glenr. Show glenr's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    The whole idea of this thread is just wrong.

    The offense in NE has produced the least turnovers, most yards, most points, has contributed to the 7th best TOP (TOP is also a defensive stat). For those "rush" fanatics, this comes with being #1 overall in rushing attempts per game. 

    So again, another top 3 offense, doesn't matter how they do it. This offense is great every season.

    They don't score a ton of points late in games because they are trying to chew clock up most of the time. They scored the 6 they needed last week by spreading the field and throwing it, when they needed to. 

    The defense is anemic.

    Rushing more has done nothing to help this defense. The fault lies with the talent, lack thereof, on defense. 

    As I've said a million times. The defining difference between this team, and those SB winners is not Weiss, rushing, Brady changing, anything like that. It's that there is no Bruschi, Seymour, Vrabel, McGinest, Law, Harrison, et al. 

    I mean, the sheer, sheer CHASM of talent difference on defense is so large that ignoring it, not recognizing it, pretending it's not there, is just willfull. NE needs a defense that can hold a great offense to just a couple scores sometimes, especially on days when their own offense is not playing its best. Otherwise, get ready for another exit. You *will not* run the playoffs dropping 40 points on the elite teams of the NFL four games in a row. One, two or three of those games will require your defense to hold a team to something like 12 or 17 points, and make due with 17-20 points from the offense. 

    That is how NE won it's championships before, and how every superbowl team since then has won it's championships. You need a defense that can outright win a game or two on its own. 



    How many of those games were won on a late game drive?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    They don't score a ton of points late in games because they are trying to chew clock up most of the time. They scored the 6 they needed last week by spreading the field and throwing it, when they needed to. 



    If they could chew up clock that would be one thing but they've had 1 drive of more then 4mins in the 4th the last 3 games. They aren't scoring and they aren't eating clock.

    It's both the D's and O's fault for not being able to play 60mins on both sides of the ball which to me points to something changing, mainly the O running more predictable and low % plays and the D playing a prevent instead of attacking

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from glenr. Show glenr's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    They don't score a ton of points late in games because they are trying to chew clock up most of the time. They scored the 6 they needed last week by spreading the field and throwing it, when they needed to. 



    If they could chew up clock that would be one thing but they've had 1 drive of more then 4mins in the 4th the last 3 games. They aren't scoring and they aren't eating clock.

    It's both the D's and O's fault for not being able to play 60mins on both sides of the ball which to me points to something changing, mainly the O running more predictable and low % plays and the D playing a prevent instead of attacking




    he's been hanging asround babe too much and picking up his habit of rattling off stats but failing to look beyond what he needs to win in his fantasy league. Fantasy football doesn't look at things like running the clock down in the forth quarter.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to glenr's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    They don't score a ton of points late in games because they are trying to chew clock up most of the time. They scored the 6 they needed last week by spreading the field and throwing it, when they needed to. 



    If they could chew up clock that would be one thing but they've had 1 drive of more then 4mins in the 4th the last 3 games. They aren't scoring and they aren't eating clock.

    It's both the D's and O's fault for not being able to play 60mins on both sides of the ball which to me points to something changing, mainly the O running more predictable and low % plays and the D playing a prevent instead of attacking




    he's been hanging asround babe too much and picking up his habit of rattling off stats but failing to look beyond what he needs to win in his fantasy league. Fantasy football doesn't look at things like running the clock down in the forth quarter.




    Z is right though, if the O was running down the clock then obviously their point total would also be reduced. I'm just not sure that he knows that the O hasn't been able to chew clock when they want to either. I'd take one or the other, either chew the clock or continue to put up points but the O is doing nether right now. I think that might have to do with both Gronk and Hern being dinged up and not having that short package formation to use late in game but they still need to find a way to shorten their game and just grind out 1st downs consistently

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    It's basically the same theme as last year, except the offense isn't covering up as well for the defense's shortcomings, so far anyway.  They could have a much different record but for a few plays, really they could easily be undefeated. But regardless they'd still have the same deficiencies. 

    Bottom line: It doesn't really matter what they looked like the last 7 games.  But they very likely need to improve by the end of the year (and do enough to get into the playoffs, obviously)

    They were 31st last year defensively and they came within a dropped pass/overthrow (depending on your POV) of winning the championship.

    You don't need a great defense to make it to, or win the Super Bowl. You don't need a world class offense or dominating running game either. You need to be just good enough in the RS to make the playoffs, and then you need to get hot (some luck helps as well). Virtually every SB winner in recent years followed that path:

    Colts in '06 were abysmal defensively, historically bad against the run. But they peaked at the right time, became great against the run in the playoffs, squeaked by the Pats in the AFCCG and beat an inept Bears team (Rex Grossman, really?) in the SB.

    Giants in '07, well we know that story. They are a perfect example of this rule.

    Pittsburgh in '08 is an exception.  They were strong all year with a great defense. Arizona would have been a perfect example of this rule, had they managed to win that SB which was very close. They were 9-7 with a very good passing offense and a terrible defense, but they got hot in the playoffs.

    New Orleans in '09 was hot all year and stayed hot, but their defense was atrocious.

    Green Bay in '10 is a fine example.  Made the playoffs as a Wild Card on the last day in large part because of a bad call in a game between Detroit and Tampa Bay.  Then they got hot.

    Giants last year, made it to the playoffs by default at 9-7, only because the rest of their division was awful. They were basically the same as '08 Arizona, terrible defensively with a good passing game. They just peaked at the right time.

       

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    So? New England didn't conjure a single postseason 4 minute 4th Q drive in 2001. Only one in 2003. And only one in 2004. Four minute plus drives are rare when you are trying to kill clock because the other team knows what you are doing, and you sometimes sacrifice the play that might get the most yards (a pass) for the play that will guarantee the clock keeps moving (a run). 

    It's obvious this subtlety is sort of lost on people here, but what's new on B.com.  

    They won three games with a last second FG in that span. 

    Pretty please don't talk about what I don't know, when we are *seriously* (still?!?!?!?!?) having a conversation about the offensive shortcomings of the New England Patriots "holding back" their defense.

    The only fantasy football going on here is the collective fantasy that this defense New England has put together is anything but absolutely terrible. 

    Stop teams from scoring. Period.

    If they didn't play opposite this offense they would be last in the league in every category. 

    Finally, the difference between this team, and those teams that won superbowls is not: how often they run it, who runs it, when they run it, how long they hold the ball in the 4th quarter, when they score their points, etc, etc, etc. In EVERY SINGLE FACET this offense is superior to those they fielded then. Every aspect is better. 

    The defense is miles and miles and miles and miles and miles worse. 

    New England won't be a serious contender until that is fixed.




    Forget it, the doops will never learn.  They hate stats because they obviously paint a different picture than their distorted perceptions. NO team, not even the #1, O scores in every quarter!

    They haven't a clue on how OFF BASE they are but are sticking too it.

    Here's some interesting stats:  Though I don't know why I bother.

    The Pats 0 ranks 10th in 4th quarter scoring to date.  That is far from their reality.

    They so far are averaging 7.9 points in the 4th.  Last year they averaged 8.0 points in the 4th.

    1st qtr they rank 2nd, 2nd qtr they rank 13th (Their worst qtr), 3rd they rank 3rd,

    On the other deformed hand, the D ranks as follows In points allowed:

    1st qtr. 13th, 2nd qtr. 10th, 3rd qtr. 20th, and 4th. 27th .

    In the 4th qtr. they are giving up 8.7 points/qtr.  Last year they gave up 6.7 points in the 4ths.

    That's 2 more points per quarter than last years 31st ranked D.

    They are also on the field 4 minutes LESS  p/g than last years D.  Boohoo they're tired from the O not scoring.  Rubbish!

    This D truly would be last in every single catagory imaginable WITH OUT the strength of the O.

    Take that to the bank and quit blaming the offense that has been carrying the D for 3+ years .

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to glenr's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    The whole idea of this thread is just wrong.

    The offense in NE has produced the least turnovers, most yards, most points, has contributed to the 7th best TOP (TOP is also a defensive stat). For those "rush" fanatics, this comes with being #1 overall in rushing attempts per game. 

    So again, another top 3 offense, doesn't matter how they do it. This offense is great every season.

    They don't score a ton of points late in games because they are trying to chew clock up most of the time. They scored the 6 they needed last week by spreading the field and throwing it, when they needed to. 

    The defense is anemic.

    Rushing more has done nothing to help this defense. The fault lies with the talent, lack thereof, on defense. 

    As I've said a million times. The defining difference between this team, and those SB winners is not Weiss, rushing, Brady changing, anything like that. It's that there is no Bruschi, Seymour, Vrabel, McGinest, Law, Harrison, et al. 

    I mean, the sheer, sheer CHASM of talent difference on defense is so large that ignoring it, not recognizing it, pretending it's not there, is just willfull. NE needs a defense that can hold a great offense to just a couple scores sometimes, especially on days when their own offense is not playing its best. Otherwise, get ready for another exit. You *will not* run the playoffs dropping 40 points on the elite teams of the NFL four games in a row. One, two or three of those games will require your defense to hold a team to something like 12 or 17 points, and make due with 17-20 points from the offense. 

    That is how NE won it's championships before, and how every superbowl team since then has won it's championships. You need a defense that can outright win a game or two on its own. 



    How many of those games were won on a late game drive?




    How many games did they have a 9 to 13 point lead in the 4th?...  Why MUST they score in the 4th with a lead that would be safe with any other D?   NO TEAM SCORES IN EVERY QUARTER!  It happenes but very, very, very, rarely.  Even when they scored fiftyfricken-two points they did not score in every quarter.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from patsbandwagonsince76. Show patsbandwagonsince76's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I mean, the sheer, sheer CHASM of talent difference on defense is so large that ignoring it, not recognizing it, pretending it's not there, is just willfull. NE needs a defense that can hold a great offense to just a couple scores sometimes,

    [QUOTE]

    This statement concerns me the most..it means there is nothing really to do about the D.

    I hope you are not a good judge of talent.

    I was thinking the only part of the defense that one could debate as not very talented is the secondary...and they have inexperienced people which could sometimes be mistaken for lack of talent. I am hoping they could improve quite a bit this season.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    Interesting stats Pezz and great analysis as always from Zbellino. 

    Patsbandwagon, I think the one hope we have is that a lot of the defensive players are inexperienced. Because of this, there is a real possibility they'll improve over the course of the year. It's a bit of a long-shot, but Dennard, Dowling, Wilson, and even Ebner all could get better.  I think McCourty is okay (despite all the criticism he takes from fans).  Chung and Gregory are what they are (neither is a top-level safety in my opinion).  Cole and Moore are jags, I think.  Arrington is one of my favourite special teams players, but I'm not sure he's cut out to start in the defensive backfield.

    Pass coverage from the LBs is a different story.  I just don't see a lot of room for growth there.  And right now that's a weakness for us.  

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    Denver is giving up 1 point on average in the 4th.  Their last 3 they allowed ZERO!

    Seattle, 3.4

    Arizona, 3.9

    Baltimore, 5

    Jets, 6.7

    Any of there teams look familiar?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from stillgridlocked. Show stillgridlocked's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    The D and the O are sucking wind in the 4th quarter. They are mailing it in in the 4th.

    Their super bowl teams demolished other teams in the 4th quarter.

     

    No one seems to agree with me but I've been saying that for a long time.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to stillgridlocked's comment:

    The D and the O are sucking wind in the 4th quarter. They are mailing it in in the 4th.

    The super bowl teams demolished other teams in the 4th quarter.

     

    No one seems to agree with me but I've been saying that for a long time.



    My stats only go back to 2003 but...

    2003 the O averaged 8.3 pts in the 4th, 2004, 5.1 pts, 2005, 5.0.  much worse except 2003

    which is on par with this years O.

    Defense  gave up, 2003 2.6, 2004 3.1, 2005 3.1  Far, Far, far cry from the 8.7 of present

    So, in the SB years the O didn't score as much and the D gave up much less.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    In response to stillgridlocked's comment:

    The D and the O are sucking wind in the 4th quarter. They are mailing it in in the 4th.

    The super bowl teams demolished other teams in the 4th quarter.

     

    No one seems to agree with me but I've been saying that for a long time.



    I don't know, I recall three games in particular in which the defense folded rather notably in the 4th qtr in the SB years, actually in each of the SBs themselves.  Up 17-3 vs the Rams only to see them tie it with 1 minute plus to go.  Up 21-10 vs Carolina in the 4th, another lost lead (largest 4th qtr deficit overcome in SB history).  Up 10 on Philly only to see it become a nailbiter when they allowed a vomiting Donovan McNabb to throw a long TD pass in the last 2 minutes.  Not all demolitions, this team has a history of allowing opponents back in the game rather than stepping on their neck. 

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from stillgridlocked. Show stillgridlocked's posts

    Re: A tale of the fourth; Patriots offense vs. defense, who's to blame?

    I guess my point was they were known as a 2nd half team. They wanted it more, they were in better shape and they pounded the other team right through the very last second. I can remember the announcers saying those same things at the time. 

    I'm betting in the 4th quarters back then they were running ball control and clock control. Now they become 2nd half pass happy if they haven't established a running game.

    Do you have time of possession per quarter as a stat to compare?

    I guess the other thing to consider is that the league parity has become very tight and Tom Brady is right fans here have been spoiled.

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:


    My stats only go back to 2003 but...

    2003 the O averaged 8.3 pts in the 4th, 2004, 5.1 pts, 2005, 5.0.  much worse except 2003

    which is on par with this years O.

    Defense  gave up, 2003 2.6, 2004 3.1, 2005 3.1  Far, Far, far cry from the 8.7 of present

    So, in the SB years the O didn't score as much and the D gave up much less.



     
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