If the Jets win against Miami, the Jets will make the playoffs if one of the following two scenarios play out:
- Cincinnati loses, Tennessee loses or ties, and Oakland loses or ties
- Cincinnati loses, Tennessee loses or ties, and Denver loses or ties
That is a rather tall order. Cinncinatti does play Baltimore (at home). Oakland plays San Diego at home, Denver plays KC at home and Tenn plays at Houston. Those last three figure to be close games. If you figure a probability of of 50% for all the games except Baltimore at Cinn (where you give Balt a 60%, then the probability of the Jets getting into the playoffs is .5*.6*.5*.75 = .1125. IOW the odds of their making the payoffs is 9-1 against them.
I would only be happier if it were 99-1 against them (or 100-0).
As for the other NY team, I have to be satisfied with even odds since the winner of that game with Dallas makes it and the other is out. C'mon Dallas!
(The .75 is because there is one way of failing with both Oakland and Denver winning. There are three ways of succeeding with either or both of them losing and so for .5 for each, that means a .75 of success).