AFC Playoff Picture

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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to JintsFan's comment:

    u did say the sf-pats game is a "sb preview" no dont think seattle fans will care...


    Who do you have in the Super Bowl smarty pants?

    By the way, Paul_K's analysis is pretty accurate. He ranks the Patriots high because they usually finish high. They have gone 8-0 in each of the last halves of the last two seasons. The last 12 seasons they have averaged 6.3 wins-1.7 losses in the last halves.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to JintsFan's comment:

    i dont have anyone in the SB...i cant see one dominant team in either conference who is a clear choice, despite records to this point...and all the usual things that matter-remaining schedule, injuries, seeding... I can see a few teams in both conferences making the SB as for Paul'ss accuracy I am not sure you can have any team favored over another weeks in  except in extreme cases...Pats favored over Jaguars or Browns any time? ok but pats favored over Texans and 49ers so far in advance-if at all? Nope


    The Patriots will be favored over all remaining opponents barring an injury to Brady.

    Bet on it.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to digger0862's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to JintsFan's comment:

    i dont have anyone in the SB...i cant see one dominant team in either conference who is a clear choice, despite records to this point...and all the usual things that matter-remaining schedule, injuries, seeding... I can see a few teams in both conferences making the SB as for Paul'ss accuracy I am not sure you can have any team favored over another weeks in  except in extreme cases...Pats favored over Jaguars or Browns any time? ok but pats favored over Texans and 49ers so far in advance-if at all? Nope



    The Patriots will be favored over all remaining opponents barring an injury to Brady.

     

    Bet on it.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree with that, but the Patriots are usually favored. The only game they were not favored in this season was at Baltimore. They were favored by 4 against Seattle and by 14 against the Cardinals.

    The only games that the Patriots might not be favored in would be the Texans and the 49ers, but since they are both at home, I am sure they will get the Vegas edge in those...

    They were also favored in both Super Bowl versus the Giants  (by 12 in 2007 and by 2.5 last season). Being favored has nothing to do with them winning games.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to digger0862's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    By the way, Paul_K's analysis is pretty accurate. He ranks the Patriots high because they usually finish high. They have gone 8-0 in each of the last halves of the last two seasons. The last 12 seasons they have averaged 6.3 wins-1.7 losses in the last halves.

    [/QUOTE]

    I have no idea how accurate his picks are in general... I know that over in one of the Andrew Luck threads, he picked the Jaguars to win outright (or at least cover) against the Colts tonight and he missed that by two touchdowns. I take any line that some one is setting weeks in advance with a major grain of salt. 

    I am not going to pretend like I know who is going to win most NFL games. If I did, I would be living in Las Vegas and gambling for a living. 

    I would also mention that what the Patriots did over the second half of the season 12 years is completely useless for predicting what they will do this year. Just two years ago, the Patriots went 4-4 to the end the season. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to Quagmire3's comment:
    [QUOTE]



    Right now, if things ended to day, the Patriots would host the Steelers, play at Baltimore and at Houston to make it to the Super Bowl. That would not be an easy road.

    Everyone seems sure that Ravens will falter, but since they own the tie break the Patriots have to play two game better than them over the second half to finish ahead. That means if the Patriots go 6-2, the Ravens would have to go 4-4 for the Patriots to overtake them not impossible, but I am not sure it will happen.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree with you, that is not an eeasy road at all! We need to win out and try to get the first round bye, but Baltimore would have to collapse for that to happen.

    [/QUOTE]

    which is why those 3 games blown by the coaches matters

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Paul_K's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to FrnkBnhm's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If the Houston at Detriot game is a pick-em, then so is Patriots game at Miami (do you realize the Phins have the sixth ranked defense in the NFL?).

    The Patriots second half schedule is a lot tougher than you are giving it credit for. The only "easy" games are Buffalo and Jacksonville. The Dolphins will put up a fight both times as will the Colts (the Colts actually have the same record as the Patriots).  The Jets will try (I am not sure they have enough of anything to beat the Patriots), but on national TV in prime-time on Thanksgiving, playing for the lives (and Ryan possibly coaching for his job)  it will not be an easy game.

    The 49ers may have a long flight out, but the Pats also lose a day of rest going into that game. This is not the second half schedule from last year where the Pats end on an 8-0 run.  I expect that Patriots to go 6-2 (split the Houston-SF back-to-back and one other stumble along the way). At 11-5, they will certainly win the AFC East, but a by will not be a guarantee...

    The Broncos have an extremely easy schedule and could easily go 7-1 putting them back ahead of the Patriots despite having lost to them. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I have New England at Miami as 5.7 point visitor favorites. 

    Miami, as a third place finisher in 2011, has already played its two third place teams and split 1-1. They did face Houston in the first half of the season, but they have yet to face Seattle, at San Francisco or two New England games.  They're playing average against average teams.  Losing to lower-ranked Indy at the Lucas Oil dome cemented their #15 NFL power ranking. 

    New England will be coming off a 10 day layover after Thanksgiving and that should help. 

    In the last three years Miami has been a relatively good road warrior team versus a home softie. 

    [/QUOTE]


    i am shocked beyond words u have the pats favored all the time and in the super bowl...stunned really

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Do you mean stunned in a way like you are stunned when a CD is skipping over and over and over and over again and nobody gets up to fix it?  Paul's the epitome of the Einstein insanity definition.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    The colts are not good, but they've got a punchers chance to make the playoffs, regardless of the other teams vying for spots.  The colts have 3 very winnable games left on their schedule.  At home vs Tenn and Buffalo, on the road at KC.  Winning those puts them at 9-7. 

    Further they could be competitive against Detroit and they play Houston in the last game of the season.  If Houston runs away with the conference, they could be resting players for that game giving the colts a chance. 

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to FrnkBnhm's comment:

    I have no idea how accurate his picks are in general... I know that over in one of the Andrew Luck threads, he picked the Jaguars to win outright (or at least cover) against the Colts tonight and he missed that by two touchdowns. I take any line that some one is setting weeks in advance with a major grain of salt. I am not going to pretend like I know who is going to win most NFL games. If I did, I would be living in Las Vegas and gambling for a living. I would also mention that what the Patriots did over the second half of the season 12 years is completely useless for predicting what they will do this year. Just two years ago, the Patriots went 4-4 to the end the season. 



    This is where we differ. You can say that about any other team except the Patriots. They are the model of consistency in Nov and Dec.
    Let's go back and look at those 4 losses in 2009.

     

    New England Patriots 34 at Indianapolis Colts 35
    Sunday, November 15, 2009
    The infamous 4th and 2 game. The Colts were 8-0 playing at home. The Colts trailed by 17 points early in the fourth quarter marking the first time Belichick's Patriots had lost when leading by at least 13 in the final period.

    New England Patriots 17 at New Orleans Saints 38
    Monday, November 30, 2009
    The Saints were 10-0 playing at home. Nobody was going to beat the eventual Super Bowl champs on this day.

    New England Patriots 21 at Miami Dolphins 22
    Sunday, December 6, 2009
    Brady was injured and threw 2 interceptions. The Patriots missed repeated chances to put the game away in the fourth quarter.

    New England Patriots 27 at Houston Texans 34
    Sunday, January 3, 2010
    The Patriots had already clinched a playoff spot and had numerous injuries including Brady, Wilfork and Welker. Houston had a chance for their 1st ever playoff spot and were not going to be denied.

    I don't see any undefeated teams on the schedule this year. At worst, I see 6-2, assuming no injuries to Tom Brady.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to Paul_K's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have New England.  Then I have Houston and Denver.  The question is, which of these teams wins the footrace to home field advantage or to the second bye?   Houston has the lead, but they have two tough away games at Chicago (the worst one, I favor Chi by 2.5 points) and at Detroit (pick em).  Then Houston has to go to New England (I favor New England by 4.6 points).  The New England game is a big head to head tiebreaker.

    Denver has already lost its tiebreaker to New England.  However, they play mostly average teams and bozos for the rest of the year.  FrankenPeyton's bolted-on neck and retread arm seem to be holding together at this point, so Denver is in like Flynn.  When Peyton loosens up and lets his hair down, does he use a wrench and a solvent?

    All that New England has on its screen, after the critical Houston game, is a Super Bowl preview game against San Francisco at home, New England by 8.3 points, long flight out, SF has to play rival Seattle the next week in Seattle.  The actual Super Bowl would be a pick em.

    I can't see any AFC North team winning the AFC North.  Don't give me any of that "someone has to" business.  Baltimore goes 4-4 from here out, finishes 10-6.  Pitt goes 5-3 and finishes 10-6.  One of them gets a wild card.  Neither one of them gets a bye.

    The last wild card is up for grabs at 8-8. 

    San Diego looks like 4-4.  They have a shot.  Miami looks like 4-4.  They have a shot.  Indianapolis goes 3-5 the rest of the way.  They've been playing bunnies but that changes pretty soon.  The Jets could once more sneak in with their lucky horseshoe except they regularly die in December.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree that the AFC championship game is played in Denver. Looking at the schedule, I think they run the table and secure home field. Pats can win in Denver, but historically a tough place to play 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to digger0862's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to FrnkBnhm's comment:

    I have no idea how accurate his picks are in general... I know that over in one of the Andrew Luck threads, he picked the Jaguars to win outright (or at least cover) against the Colts tonight and he missed that by two touchdowns. I take any line that some one is setting weeks in advance with a major grain of salt. I am not going to pretend like I know who is going to win most NFL games. If I did, I would be living in Las Vegas and gambling for a living. I would also mention that what the Patriots did over the second half of the season 12 years is completely useless for predicting what they will do this year. Just two years ago, the Patriots went 4-4 to the end the season. 

     



    This is where we differ. You can say that about any other team except the Patriots. They are the model of consistency in Nov and Dec.
    Let's go back and look at those 4 losses in 2009.

     

    New England Patriots 34 at Indianapolis Colts 35
    Sunday, November 15, 2009
    The infamous 4th and 2 game. The Colts were 8-0 playing at home. The Colts trailed by 17 points early in the fourth quarter marking the first time Belichick's Patriots had lost when leading by at least 13 in the final period.

    New England Patriots 17 at New Orleans Saints 38
    Monday, November 30, 2009
    The Saints were 10-0 playing at home. Nobody was going to beat the eventual Super Bowl champs on this day.

    New England Patriots 21 at Miami Dolphins 22
    Sunday, December 6, 2009
    Brady was injured and threw 2 interceptions. The Patriots missed repeated chances to put the game away in the fourth quarter.

    New England Patriots 27 at Houston Texans 34
    Sunday, January 3, 2010
    The Patriots had already clinched a playoff spot and had numerous injuries including Brady, Wilfork and Welker. Houston had a chance for their 1st ever playoff spot and were not going to be denied.

    I don't see any undefeated teams on the schedule this year. At worst, I see 6-2, assuming no injuries to Tom Brady.

    [/QUOTE]

    I do agree with you, but going 6-2, may not get the Patriots a bye. The Ravens would have to go 4-4 over the second half for the Patriots to pass them. Denver could easily go 7-1 with the schedule they have an finish with the second seed as well. The Pats could end up being with anything between the 2nd and 4th seed (I do not see them passing Houston even if the Pats win that game).

    I agree about the 2009 schedule, but I just looked at the past 10 years, and this is definitely the next toughest second-half schedule the Patriots have had over that span. My post was more aimed at the people who think they can run off 10 straight to end the season the way they ran of 8 straight each of the last two years. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture

    In response to FrnkBnhm's comment:

    [QUOTE]I do agree with you, but going 6-2, may not get the Patriots a bye. The Ravens would have to go 4-4 over the second half for the Patriots to pass them. Denver could easily go 7-1 with the schedule they have an finish with the second seed as well. The Pats could end up being with anything between the 2nd and 4th seed (I do not see them passing Houston even if the Pats win that game). I agree about the 2009 schedule, but I just looked at the past 10 years, and this is definitely the next toughest second-half schedule the Patriots have had over that span. My post was more aimed at the people who think they can run off 10 straight to end the season the way they ran of 8 straight each of the last two years.
    [/QUOTE]



    Yup, winning 10 straight is hard to do, especially nowadays. I like this team but they do have their flaws. To get a bye the Patriots will need lots of help. Plus they will need to win some tough games as well as all of the "easy" ones.

     

     
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