Are all "top 100" picks really going to be solid starters?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Are all "top 100" picks really going to be solid starters?

    One of our regular posters, a big fan of draft publications and a big critic of Bill Belichick's drafting (and especially of the Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon picks) has been claiming that a "top 100" pick has to be a starter or the pick is a bust.  Well, I went back and looked at four drafts--2006 through 2009--to see how picks 76 through 100 fared.  Rather than trying to judge "quality" of the player (a subjective thing) I simply looked at the player's last year in the league, the number of teams the player signed with, and whether the player ever made the Pro Bowl (at least as an alternate).  What I'm looking for are players who are still in the league and haven't jumped around from team to team--i.e., players who aren't journeymen, but who can start or at least be solid back ups in the league for 4 to 7 seasons (hence 2006 through 2009).  Here are the results for the 100 players (25 from each draft) I looked at.  I think when you review the list, you'll see that regardless of what our friend TexPat (or, as I prefer to call him since he seems to endlessly repeat whatever Mel Kiper and the other draftniks say, TexParrot) tells us, most late third round picks are roster filler.  Sure, you'll find exceptions, but this part of the draft is not highly productive of quality starters.

     

    Rd / Pick /  Team   /  Player       /        Pos / Last year in NFL/# teams / PB

    2006         

    3 76 New York Jets Anthony Schlegel LB 2008/2

    3 77 St. Louis Rams Jon Alston LB 2010/3

    3 78 Cleveland Browns Travis Wilson WR 2009/3

    3 79 Atlanta Falcons Jerious Norwood RB 2011/2

    3 80 Jacksonville Jaguars Clint Ingram LB 2011/2

    3 81 San Diego Chargers Charlie Whitehurst QB Current/3

    3 82 Miami Dolphins Derek Hagan WR 2012/5

    3 83 Pittsburgh Steelers Anthony Smith S 2011/6

    3 84 San Francisco 49ers Brandon Williams WR 2009/3

    3 85 Kansas City Chiefs Brodie Croyle QB 2012/2

    3 86 New England Patriots David Thomas TE 2012/2

    3 87 Baltimore Ravens David Pittman CB 2010/4

    3 88 Carolina Panthers James Anderson LB Current/2

    3 89 Carolina Panthers Rashad Butler OT Current/3

    3 90 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Maurice Stovall WR 2012/3

    3 91 Cincinnati Bengals Frostee Rucker DE Current/3

    3 92 Dallas Cowboys Jason Hatcher DE Current/1

    3 93 St. Louis Rams Dominique Byrd TE 2011/4

    3 94 Indianapolis Colts Freddy Keiaho LB 2010/2

    3 95 Pittsburgh Steelers Willie Reid WR 2009/3

    3 96 New York Giants Gerris Wilkinson LB 2011/2

    3* 97 New York Jets Eric Smith S 2012/1

    4 98 Houston Texans Owen Daniels† TE Current/1/PB

    4 99 Philadelphia Eagles Max Jean-Gilles G 2011/3

    4 100 San Francisco 49ers Michael Robinson† RB Current/2/PB

    2007          

    3 75 Atlanta Falcons Laurent Robinson WR 2012/5

    3 76 San Francisco 49ers Jason Hill WR 2012/4

    3 77 Pittsburgh Steelers Matt Spaeth TE Current/3

    3 78 Green Bay Packers James Jones WR Current/1

    3 79 Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Sims-Walker WR 2011/3

    3 80 Tennessee Titans Paul Williams WR 2010/2

    3 – Cincinnati Bengals selection forfeited    

    3 81 New York Giants Jay Alford DT 2011/3

    3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler DT 2011/3

    3 83 Carolina Panthers Charles Johnson DE Current/1

    3 84 St. Louis Rams Jonathan Wade CB 2011/4

    3 85 Seattle Seahawks Brandon Mebane DT Current/1

    3 86 Baltimore Ravens Marshal Yanda† OT Current/1/PB

    3 87 Philadelphia Eagles Stewart Bradley LB Current/3

    3 88 New Orleans Saints Andy Alleman G 2010/4

    3 89 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rouse S 2010/3

    3 90 Philadelphia Eagles Tony Hunt RB 2008/1

    3 91 Oakland Raiders Mario Henderson OT 2012/3

    3 92 Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards QB 2012/4

    3 93 Chicago Bears Garrett Wolfe RB 2010/1

    3 94 Chicago Bears Michael Okwo LB 2009/2

    3 95 Indianapolis Colts Dante Hughes CB 2012/3

    3* 96 San Diego Chargers Anthony Waters LB 2010/3

    3* 97 San Francisco 49ers Ray McDonald DE Current/1

    3* 98 Indianapolis Colts Quinn Pitcock DT 2011/3

    3* 99 Oakland Raiders Johnnie Lee Higgins WR 2011/2

    4 100 Oakland Raiders Michael Bush RB Current/2

    2008          

    3 76 Kansas City Chiefs Brad Cottam TE 2011/1

    3 77 Cincinnati Bengals Pat Sims DT Current/2

    3 78 New England Patriots Shawn Crable LB 2010/2

    3 79 Houston Texans Antwaun Molden CB 2012/4

    3 80 Philadelphia Eagles Bryan Smith DE 2010/3

    3 81 Arizona Cardinals Early Doucet WR 2012/1

    3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DaJuan Morgan S 2011/3

    3 83 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jeremy Zuttah G Current/1

    3 84 Atlanta Falcons Harry Douglas WR Current/1

    3 85 Tennessee Titans Craig Stevens TE Current/1

    3 86 Baltimore Ravens Tom Zbikowski S Current/3

    3 87 Detroit Lions Andre Fluellen DT Current/4

    3 88 Pittsburgh Steelers Bruce Davis DE 2011/5

    3 89 Houston Texans Steve Slaton RB 2011/2

    3 90 Chicago Bears Marcus Harrison DT 2010/1

    3 91 Green Bay Packers Jermichael Finley TE Current/2

    3 92 Detroit Lions Cliff Avril DE Current/3

    3 93 Indianapolis Colts Philip Wheeler LB Current/3

    3 94 New England Patriots Kevin O'Connell QB 2012/6

    3 95 New York Giants Mario Manningham WR Current/2

    3* 96 Washington Redskins Chad Rinehart OT Current/4

    3* 97 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Caldwell WR Current/2

    3* 98 Atlanta Falcons Thomas DeCoud† S Current/1/PB

    3* 99 Baltimore Ravens Oniel Cousins OT Current/2

    4 100 Oakland Raiders Tyvon Branch CB Current/1

    2009          

    3 76 Detroit Lions DeAndre Levy LB Current/1

    3 77 Houston Texans Antoine Caldwell C 2012/1

    3 78 San Diego Chargers Louis Vasquez G Current/2

    3 79 Pittsburgh Steelers Kraig Urbik G Current/2

    3 80 Washington Redskins Kevin Barnes CB Current/3

    3 81 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Roy Miller DT Current/2

    3 82 Detroit Lions Derrick Williams WR 2012/2

    3 83 New England Patriots Brandon Tate WR Current/2

    3 84 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Wallace† WR Current/2

    3 85 New York Giants Ramses Barden WR 2012/1

    3 86 Minnesota Vikings Asher Allen CB 2011/1

    3 87 Miami Dolphins Patrick Turner WR 2012/2

    3 88 Baltimore Ravens Lardarius Webb CB Current/1

    3 89 Tennessee Titans Jared Cook TE Current/2

    3 90 Atlanta Falcons Christopher Owens CB Current/2

    3 91 Seattle Seahawks Deon Butler WR Current/2

    3 92 Indianapolis Colts Jerraud Powers CB Current/2

    3 93 Carolina Panthers Corvey Irvin DT Current/5

    3 94 Tennessee Titans Ryan Mouton CB 2012/1

    3 95 Arizona Cardinals Rashad Johnson S Current/1

    3 96 Pittsburgh Steelers Keenan Lewis CB Current/2

    3* 97 New England Patriots Tyrone McKenzie LB Current/3

    3* 98 Cincinnati Bengals Chase Coffman TE Current/3

    3* 99 Chicago Bears Juaquin Iglesias WR 2012/3

    3* 100 New York Giants Travis Beckum TE 2012/1

     

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Are all

    College and NFL 2 different animals.

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to THTM's comment:

     

    Thats why BB should bundle up picks 2 and 3 with a first and move up and  Draft a player like JJ Watt,which was suggested by some draft books.The value pick thing has been a total failure.BB first two picks last year were great instead of the tradedown horse sh-it..,All Bill could do with the second round pick is bundle it with another pick or trade it for a player to be named later.

     



    The lack of quality in the third and lower rounds does call into question the value strategy.  However, you do need to build depth too and if you trade all your lower round picks for high ones, you've got very few picks overall and building a complete team becomes quite challenging. 

    You also have to consider that the best way to find value in the mid and lower rounds is to have a lot of picks in those rounds.  More lottery tickets, the greater the chance one will win something. 

     

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    One of our regular posters, a big fan of draft publications and a big critic of Bill Belichick's drafting (and especially of the Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon picks) has been claiming that a "top 100" pick has to be a starter or the pick is a bust.  Well, I went back and looked at four drafts--2006 through 2009--to see how picks 76 through 100 fared.  Rather than trying to judge "quality" of the player (a subjective thing) I simply looked at the player's last year in the league, the number of teams the player signed with, and whether the player ever made the Pro Bowl (at least as an alternate).  What I'm looking for are players who are still in the league and haven't jumped around from team to team--i.e., players who aren't journeymen, but who can start or at least be solid back ups in the league for 4 to 7 seasons (hence 2006 through 2009).  Here are the results for the 100 players (25 from each draft) I looked at.  I think when you review the list, you'll see that regardless of what our friend TexPat (or, as I prefer to call him since he seems to endlessly repeat whatever Mel Kiper and the other draftniks say, TexParrot) tells us, most late third round picks are roster filler.  Sure, you'll find exceptions, but this part of the draft is not highly productive of quality starters.

     

    Rd / Pick /  Team   /  Player       /        Pos / Last year in NFL/# teams / PB

    2006         

    3 76 New York Jets Anthony Schlegel LB 2008/2

    3 77 St. Louis Rams Jon Alston LB 2010/3

    3 78 Cleveland Browns Travis Wilson WR 2009/3

    3 79 Atlanta Falcons Jerious Norwood RB 2011/2

    3 80 Jacksonville Jaguars Clint Ingram LB 2011/2

    3 81 San Diego Chargers Charlie Whitehurst QB Current/3

    3 82 Miami Dolphins Derek Hagan WR 2012/5

    3 83 Pittsburgh Steelers Anthony Smith S 2011/6

    3 84 San Francisco 49ers Brandon Williams WR 2009/3

    3 85 Kansas City Chiefs Brodie Croyle QB 2012/2

    3 86 New England Patriots David Thomas TE 2012/2

    3 87 Baltimore Ravens David Pittman CB 2010/4

    3 88 Carolina Panthers James Anderson LB Current/2

    3 89 Carolina Panthers Rashad Butler OT Current/3

    3 90 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Maurice Stovall WR 2012/3

    3 91 Cincinnati Bengals Frostee Rucker DE Current/3

    3 92 Dallas Cowboys Jason Hatcher DE Current/1

    3 93 St. Louis Rams Dominique Byrd TE 2011/4

    3 94 Indianapolis Colts Freddy Keiaho LB 2010/2

    3 95 Pittsburgh Steelers Willie Reid WR 2009/3

    3 96 New York Giants Gerris Wilkinson LB 2011/2

    3* 97 New York Jets Eric Smith S 2012/1

    4 98 Houston Texans Owen Daniels† TE Current/1/PB

    4 99 Philadelphia Eagles Max Jean-Gilles G 2011/3

    4 100 San Francisco 49ers Michael Robinson† RB Current/2/PB

    2007          

    3 75 Atlanta Falcons Laurent Robinson WR 2012/5

    3 76 San Francisco 49ers Jason Hill WR 2012/4

    3 77 Pittsburgh Steelers Matt Spaeth TE Current/3

    3 78 Green Bay Packers James Jones WR Current/1

    3 79 Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Sims-Walker WR 2011/3

    3 80 Tennessee Titans Paul Williams WR 2010/2

    3 – Cincinnati Bengals selection forfeited    

    3 81 New York Giants Jay Alford DT 2011/3

    3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler DT 2011/3

    3 83 Carolina Panthers Charles Johnson DE Current/1

    3 84 St. Louis Rams Jonathan Wade CB 2011/4

    3 85 Seattle Seahawks Brandon Mebane DT Current/1

    3 86 Baltimore Ravens Marshal Yanda† OT Current/1/PB

    3 87 Philadelphia Eagles Stewart Bradley LB Current/3

    3 88 New Orleans Saints Andy Alleman G 2010/4

    3 89 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rouse S 2010/3

    3 90 Philadelphia Eagles Tony Hunt RB 2008/1

    3 91 Oakland Raiders Mario Henderson OT 2012/3

    3 92 Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards QB 2012/4

    3 93 Chicago Bears Garrett Wolfe RB 2010/1

    3 94 Chicago Bears Michael Okwo LB 2009/2

    3 95 Indianapolis Colts Dante Hughes CB 2012/3

    3* 96 San Diego Chargers Anthony Waters LB 2010/3

    3* 97 San Francisco 49ers Ray McDonald DE Current/1

    3* 98 Indianapolis Colts Quinn Pitcock DT 2011/3

    3* 99 Oakland Raiders Johnnie Lee Higgins WR 2011/2

    4 100 Oakland Raiders Michael Bush RB Current/2

    2008          

    3 76 Kansas City Chiefs Brad Cottam TE 2011/1

    3 77 Cincinnati Bengals Pat Sims DT Current/2

    3 78 New England Patriots Shawn Crable LB 2010/2

    3 79 Houston Texans Antwaun Molden CB 2012/4

    3 80 Philadelphia Eagles Bryan Smith DE 2010/3

    3 81 Arizona Cardinals Early Doucet WR 2012/1

    3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DaJuan Morgan S 2011/3

    3 83 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jeremy Zuttah G Current/1

    3 84 Atlanta Falcons Harry Douglas WR Current/1

    3 85 Tennessee Titans Craig Stevens TE Current/1

    3 86 Baltimore Ravens Tom Zbikowski S Current/3

    3 87 Detroit Lions Andre Fluellen DT Current/4

    3 88 Pittsburgh Steelers Bruce Davis DE 2011/5

    3 89 Houston Texans Steve Slaton RB 2011/2

    3 90 Chicago Bears Marcus Harrison DT 2010/1

    3 91 Green Bay Packers Jermichael Finley TE Current/2

    3 92 Detroit Lions Cliff Avril DE Current/3

    3 93 Indianapolis Colts Philip Wheeler LB Current/3

    3 94 New England Patriots Kevin O'Connell QB 2012/6

    3 95 New York Giants Mario Manningham WR Current/2

    3* 96 Washington Redskins Chad Rinehart OT Current/4

    3* 97 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Caldwell WR Current/2

    3* 98 Atlanta Falcons Thomas DeCoud† S Current/1/PB

    3* 99 Baltimore Ravens Oniel Cousins OT Current/2

    4 100 Oakland Raiders Tyvon Branch CB Current/1

    2009          

    3 76 Detroit Lions DeAndre Levy LB Current/1

    3 77 Houston Texans Antoine Caldwell C 2012/1

    3 78 San Diego Chargers Louis Vasquez G Current/2

    3 79 Pittsburgh Steelers Kraig Urbik G Current/2

    3 80 Washington Redskins Kevin Barnes CB Current/3

    3 81 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Roy Miller DT Current/2

    3 82 Detroit Lions Derrick Williams WR 2012/2

    3 83 New England Patriots Brandon Tate WR Current/2

    3 84 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Wallace† WR Current/2

    3 85 New York Giants Ramses Barden WR 2012/1

    3 86 Minnesota Vikings Asher Allen CB 2011/1

    3 87 Miami Dolphins Patrick Turner WR 2012/2

    3 88 Baltimore Ravens Lardarius Webb CB Current/1

    3 89 Tennessee Titans Jared Cook TE Current/2

    3 90 Atlanta Falcons Christopher Owens CB Current/2

    3 91 Seattle Seahawks Deon Butler WR Current/2

    3 92 Indianapolis Colts Jerraud Powers CB Current/2

    3 93 Carolina Panthers Corvey Irvin DT Current/5

    3 94 Tennessee Titans Ryan Mouton CB 2012/1

    3 95 Arizona Cardinals Rashad Johnson S Current/1

    3 96 Pittsburgh Steelers Keenan Lewis CB Current/2

    3* 97 New England Patriots Tyrone McKenzie LB Current/3

    3* 98 Cincinnati Bengals Chase Coffman TE Current/3

    3* 99 Chicago Bears Juaquin Iglesias WR 2012/3

    3* 100 New York Giants Travis Beckum TE 2012/1

     

     

     




    I have not time to progress far, because of being to busy with other things in life, but I started analyzing this albeit a little differently. I am looking at the top picks of the media's draft gurus. I guess I could expand that to the actual picks and compare. At the rate I am going though, I'll be ready to share by next draft season. After an early browse (2010), comparing, the success rates of prospects in the draft "gurus'" list are not better or worse than those actually picked by coaches. 

    The thing that I have not figured out is what to do with bad classes. Regardless of the quality of the prospects of each class, gurus and teams still have to pick in the first round. I am not sure the experts should be penalized for that. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Are all

    The premise is correct, but not the numbers. A top 2 round pick should be a starter, not a top 4 round pick. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Are all

    One way to quickly analyze this is to see how many players are still in the league and of those that are in, whether they've jumped around a lot (suggesting they aren't really able to hold down a roster slot). 

    • From those drafted in 2006 (guys entering their 8th season this year), 18 are out of the league and 7 are still in.  Three of those still in are on at least their third team. 
    • From those drafted in 2007 (guys entering their 7th season this year), 18 are out of the leage and 7 are still in. Of those still in two are on at least their third team. 
    • From those drafted in 2008 (guys entering their 6th season this year), 10 are out of the league and 15 still in.  Of those still in, five are on at least their third team. 
    • From those drafted in 2009 (entering their 5th season this year), 8 are out of the league and 17 are still in.  Of those still in, four are on at least their third team. 

    Only 5 of the 100 players have ever made a pro bowl.  

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Are all

    Lot of work Prolate - and helpful.  Rather calls into question the claim that a top 100 pick must be a starter or he's a bust.  Didn't buy it when the claim was made; sure don't buy it now.  But then again I'm nothing more than a hopeless homer.

    For the record it is my belief that you are never going to change the mind of said BB critic even when he's inundated with irrefutable factual information. 

    I am sincerely and hopelessly committed to the facts,

    HH

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to BassFishingII's comment:

     

    Well, then the flavor of the month teams like Pitt, Balt and the Giants have a lot of busts. Has Cameron Heyward been starting in Pitt?

    LMAO

     



    The point, I guess, is that everyone has a lot of "busts" in this part of the draft--Belichick isn't much different from anyone else, neither better or worse for the most part.  Luck probably plays as big a factor as anything in this part of the draft . . .

     

     
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    Re: Are all

    good thread prolate, it is obvious alot of time and effort went in to your research. Thanks.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    One of our regular posters, a big fan of draft publications and a big critic of Bill Belichick's drafting (and especially of the Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon picks) has been claiming that a "top 100" pick has to be a starter or the pick is a bust.  Well, I went back and looked at four drafts--2006 through 2009--to see how picks 76 through 100 fared.  Rather than trying to judge "quality" of the player (a subjective thing) I simply looked at the player's last year in the league, the number of teams the player signed with, and whether the player ever made the Pro Bowl (at least as an alternate).  What I'm looking for are players who are still in the league and haven't jumped around from team to team--i.e., players who aren't journeymen, but who can start or at least be solid back ups in the league for 4 to 7 seasons (hence 2006 through 2009).  Here are the results for the 100 players (25 from each draft) I looked at.  I think when you review the list, you'll see that regardless of what our friend TexPat (or, as I prefer to call him since he seems to endlessly repeat whatever Mel Kiper and the other draftniks say, TexParrot) tells us, most late third round picks are roster filler.  Sure, you'll find exceptions, but this part of the draft is not highly productive of quality starters.

     

    Rd / Pick /  Team   /  Player       /        Pos / Last year in NFL/# teams / PB

    2006         

    3 76 New York Jets Anthony Schlegel LB 2008/2

    3 77 St. Louis Rams Jon Alston LB 2010/3

    3 78 Cleveland Browns Travis Wilson WR 2009/3

    3 79 Atlanta Falcons Jerious Norwood RB 2011/2

    3 80 Jacksonville Jaguars Clint Ingram LB 2011/2

    3 81 San Diego Chargers Charlie Whitehurst QB Current/3

    3 82 Miami Dolphins Derek Hagan WR 2012/5

    3 83 Pittsburgh Steelers Anthony Smith S 2011/6

    3 84 San Francisco 49ers Brandon Williams WR 2009/3

    3 85 Kansas City Chiefs Brodie Croyle QB 2012/2

    3 86 New England Patriots David Thomas TE 2012/2

    3 87 Baltimore Ravens David Pittman CB 2010/4

    3 88 Carolina Panthers James Anderson LB Current/2

    3 89 Carolina Panthers Rashad Butler OT Current/3

    3 90 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Maurice Stovall WR 2012/3

    3 91 Cincinnati Bengals Frostee Rucker DE Current/3

    3 92 Dallas Cowboys Jason Hatcher DE Current/1

    3 93 St. Louis Rams Dominique Byrd TE 2011/4

    3 94 Indianapolis Colts Freddy Keiaho LB 2010/2

    3 95 Pittsburgh Steelers Willie Reid WR 2009/3

    3 96 New York Giants Gerris Wilkinson LB 2011/2

    3* 97 New York Jets Eric Smith S 2012/1

    4 98 Houston Texans Owen Daniels† TE Current/1/PB

    4 99 Philadelphia Eagles Max Jean-Gilles G 2011/3

    4 100 San Francisco 49ers Michael Robinson† RB Current/2/PB

    2007          

    3 75 Atlanta Falcons Laurent Robinson WR 2012/5

    3 76 San Francisco 49ers Jason Hill WR 2012/4

    3 77 Pittsburgh Steelers Matt Spaeth TE Current/3

    3 78 Green Bay Packers James Jones WR Current/1

    3 79 Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Sims-Walker WR 2011/3

    3 80 Tennessee Titans Paul Williams WR 2010/2

    3 – Cincinnati Bengals selection forfeited    

    3 81 New York Giants Jay Alford DT 2011/3

    3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler DT 2011/3

    3 83 Carolina Panthers Charles Johnson DE Current/1

    3 84 St. Louis Rams Jonathan Wade CB 2011/4

    3 85 Seattle Seahawks Brandon Mebane DT Current/1

    3 86 Baltimore Ravens Marshal Yanda† OT Current/1/PB

    3 87 Philadelphia Eagles Stewart Bradley LB Current/3

    3 88 New Orleans Saints Andy Alleman G 2010/4

    3 89 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rouse S 2010/3

    3 90 Philadelphia Eagles Tony Hunt RB 2008/1

    3 91 Oakland Raiders Mario Henderson OT 2012/3

    3 92 Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards QB 2012/4

    3 93 Chicago Bears Garrett Wolfe RB 2010/1

    3 94 Chicago Bears Michael Okwo LB 2009/2

    3 95 Indianapolis Colts Dante Hughes CB 2012/3

    3* 96 San Diego Chargers Anthony Waters LB 2010/3

    3* 97 San Francisco 49ers Ray McDonald DE Current/1

    3* 98 Indianapolis Colts Quinn Pitcock DT 2011/3

    3* 99 Oakland Raiders Johnnie Lee Higgins WR 2011/2

    4 100 Oakland Raiders Michael Bush RB Current/2

    2008          

    3 76 Kansas City Chiefs Brad Cottam TE 2011/1

    3 77 Cincinnati Bengals Pat Sims DT Current/2

    3 78 New England Patriots Shawn Crable LB 2010/2

    3 79 Houston Texans Antwaun Molden CB 2012/4

    3 80 Philadelphia Eagles Bryan Smith DE 2010/3

    3 81 Arizona Cardinals Early Doucet WR 2012/1

    3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DaJuan Morgan S 2011/3

    3 83 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jeremy Zuttah G Current/1

    3 84 Atlanta Falcons Harry Douglas WR Current/1

    3 85 Tennessee Titans Craig Stevens TE Current/1

    3 86 Baltimore Ravens Tom Zbikowski S Current/3

    3 87 Detroit Lions Andre Fluellen DT Current/4

    3 88 Pittsburgh Steelers Bruce Davis DE 2011/5

    3 89 Houston Texans Steve Slaton RB 2011/2

    3 90 Chicago Bears Marcus Harrison DT 2010/1

    3 91 Green Bay Packers Jermichael Finley TE Current/2

    3 92 Detroit Lions Cliff Avril DE Current/3

    3 93 Indianapolis Colts Philip Wheeler LB Current/3

    3 94 New England Patriots Kevin O'Connell QB 2012/6

    3 95 New York Giants Mario Manningham WR Current/2

    3* 96 Washington Redskins Chad Rinehart OT Current/4

    3* 97 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Caldwell WR Current/2

    3* 98 Atlanta Falcons Thomas DeCoud† S Current/1/PB

    3* 99 Baltimore Ravens Oniel Cousins OT Current/2

    4 100 Oakland Raiders Tyvon Branch CB Current/1

    2009          

    3 76 Detroit Lions DeAndre Levy LB Current/1

    3 77 Houston Texans Antoine Caldwell C 2012/1

    3 78 San Diego Chargers Louis Vasquez G Current/2

    3 79 Pittsburgh Steelers Kraig Urbik G Current/2

    3 80 Washington Redskins Kevin Barnes CB Current/3

    3 81 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Roy Miller DT Current/2

    3 82 Detroit Lions Derrick Williams WR 2012/2

    3 83 New England Patriots Brandon Tate WR Current/2

    3 84 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Wallace† WR Current/2

    3 85 New York Giants Ramses Barden WR 2012/1

    3 86 Minnesota Vikings Asher Allen CB 2011/1

    3 87 Miami Dolphins Patrick Turner WR 2012/2

    3 88 Baltimore Ravens Lardarius Webb CB Current/1

    3 89 Tennessee Titans Jared Cook TE Current/2

    3 90 Atlanta Falcons Christopher Owens CB Current/2

    3 91 Seattle Seahawks Deon Butler WR Current/2

    3 92 Indianapolis Colts Jerraud Powers CB Current/2

    3 93 Carolina Panthers Corvey Irvin DT Current/5

    3 94 Tennessee Titans Ryan Mouton CB 2012/1

    3 95 Arizona Cardinals Rashad Johnson S Current/1

    3 96 Pittsburgh Steelers Keenan Lewis CB Current/2

    3* 97 New England Patriots Tyrone McKenzie LB Current/3

    3* 98 Cincinnati Bengals Chase Coffman TE Current/3

    3* 99 Chicago Bears Juaquin Iglesias WR 2012/3

    3* 100 New York Giants Travis Beckum TE 2012/1

     

     

     



         Excuse me for digressing, but you're obviously still upset over your beloved Maple Leafs. It always warms my heart to see the Canadian teams go down in flames in the play-offs. Canadian hockey fans seem to have an arrogance, and entitlement mind set about them. Let's see now...it's been over 45 years since the Leafs have been even relevant. One has to go back to the days of Frank Mahovlich and Bobby Baun, in the sixties...LOL!!!

         Now...let's address your post. Your post is an example of how twisting and editing draft results can strengthen your argument. I've noticed that you chose not to include the second round in your analysis, above. Could it be that, with the notable exceptions of Gronk and C-Bass, BB's second round record from 2006-12 is awful?

         No one is saying that every third and 4th (since you've padded your list of busted out picks above by including 4th rounders) round pick is going to be a hit. But, when the Pats drafting record for third rounders and 4th rounders is examined, it is abyssmal:

    1.) 2006:  BUSTS...3rd round...TE David Thomas (86th overall), 4th round...TE Garrett Mills (106th overall). 4th round hit PK Stephen Gostkowski (118th overall);


    2.) 2007: BUSTS...4th rounder, DT Kareem Brown (127th overall);

    3.) 2008: BUSTS...4th rounders, LB Shawn Crable (78th overall), QB Kevin O'Connell (94th overall), and CB Johnathan Wilhite (129th overall);

    4.) 2009: BUSTS...3rd rounders, WR Brandon Tate (83rd overall), and LB Tyrone McKenzie (97th overall);

    5.) 2010: BUSTS...3rd rounder, WR Taylor Price (90th overall), and 4th round hit TE Aaron Hernandez;

    6.) 2011: 3rd round hit, Stevan Ridley (73rd overall)...the jury is still out on fellow 3rd rounder, 74th overall pick, Ryan Mallett;

    7.) 2012: BUSTS...3rd rounder Jake Bequette, 90th overall.

         So...in the final analysis, BB salvaged himself somewhat with his 2010 and 2011 hits on Hernandez and Ridley (Ghost is just a kicker, after all). But, in round 2, he has whiffed badly on high selections, such as WR Chad Jackson, the 36th overall pick in 2006, CB Terrence Wheatley, the 62nd overall pick in 2008. In 2009, BB hit the skids with SS Patrick Chung (34th overall), DT Ron Brace (40th overall), CB Darius Butler (41st overall). In 2010, he whiffed on Jermaine Cunningham (53rd overall), and the 33rd overall pick in 2011, CB Ras-I Dowling. Finally, there was the SS pick of Tavon Wilson (48th overall), in 2012.   

         If you're happy with those results, so be it.

         Have a Molson on me, my friend!   

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moskk. Show moskk's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to ATJ's comment:

    Lot of work Prolate - and helpful.  Rather calls into question the claim that a top 100 pick must be a starter or he's a bust.  Didn't buy it when the claim was made; sure don't buy it now.  But then again I'm nothing more than a hopeless homer.

    For the record it is my belief that you are never going to change the mind of said BB critic even when he's inundated with irrefutable factual information. 

    I am sincerely and hopelessly committed to the facts,

    HH



    There are drafts when one or more picks are deemed "can't miss" by nearly everyone and there are drafts like the past draft when the field was wide open. As to a team selecting players in the draft order preferred by the "experts".... team needs, team systems, measureables preferred by position and the fruit of interviews, background checks etc. can influence team choices. I should add that coaches develop prejudices against player types and often defer final close choices to college coach's recommendations (as in Saban etc.).

    As in the past draft, hybrids presenting with the size, speed, athleticism and college production even at lower levels of competition can be tempting targets in later rounds. My gut feeling is that some of these choices may very well make rosters and even, in rare cases, excell. It's the latter possibility that tempts coaches to take chances with multiplying draft picks.

    While BB has certainly missed on a number of picks, he has also been rather succesful in finding gems overlooked by the "experts" as well as other coaches. This year could be one of his better drafts based on player profiles....hopefully!

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from leonardo0110. Show leonardo0110's posts

    Re: Are all

    I wonder why Aaron Rodgers was the 24th player taken and Alex Smith the #1 overall pick...Oh I know...because the draft is filled with hit&miss players from the start...

     
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    Re: Are all

    In response to Quagmire3's comment:

    good thread prolate, it is obvious alot of time and effort went in to your research. Thanks.



    Wikipedia is amazing . . .Laughing

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

         Now...let's address your post. Your post is an example of how twisting and editing draft results can strengthen your argument. I've noticed that you chose not to include the second round in your analysis, above. Could it be that, with the notable exceptions of Gronk and C-Bass, BB's second round record from 2006-12 is awful?

         No one is saying that every third and 4th (since you've padded your list of busted out picks above by including 4th rounders) round pick is going to be a hit. But, when the Pats drafting record for third rounders and 4th rounders is examined, it is abyssmal:

    1.) 2006:  BUSTS...3rd round...TE David Thomas (86th overall), 4th round...TE Garrett Mills (106th overall). 4th round hit PK Stephen Gostkowski (118th overall);


    2.) 2007: BUSTS...4th rounder, DT Kareem Brown (127th overall);

    3.) 2008: BUSTS...4th rounders, LB Shawn Crable (78th overall), QB Kevin O'Connell (94th overall), and CB Johnathan Wilhite (129th overall);

    4.) 2009: BUSTS...3rd rounders, WR Brandon Tate (83rd overall), and LB Tyrone McKenzie (97th overall);

    5.) 2010: BUSTS...3rd rounder, WR Taylor Price (90th overall), and 4th round hit TE Aaron Hernandez;

    6.) 2011: 3rd round hit, Stevan Ridley (73rd overall)...the jury is still out on fellow 3rd rounder, 74th overall pick, Ryan Mallett;

    7.) 2012: BUSTS...3rd rounder Jake Bequette, 90th overall.

         So...in the final analysis, BB salvaged himself somewhat with his 2010 and 2011 hits on Hernandez and Ridley (Ghost is just a kicker, after all). But, in round 2, he has whiffed badly on high selections, such as WR Chad Jackson, the 36th overall pick in 2006, CB Terrence Wheatley, the 62nd overall pick in 2008. In 2009, BB hit the skids with SS Patrick Chung (34th overall), DT Ron Brace (40th overall), CB Darius Butler (41st overall). In 2010, he whiffed on Jermaine Cunningham (53rd overall), and the 33rd overall pick in 2011, CB Ras-I Dowling. Finally, there was the SS pick of Tavon Wilson (48th overall), in 2012.   

     



    Typical TexParrot post lacking any kind of intellectual rigour at all.  My approach was solid.  You said "top 100" picks should be starters.  I looked at the bottom quarter of the top 100 over four drafts and showed that only a small percentage of these actually end up as starters.  The fact that some top 100 picks are fourth rounders is irrelevant as long as they are still top 100 picks. Maybe when you said the top 100 should be starters you didn't realize that some of the top 100 would be fourth rounders?  I think my analysis shows pretty clearly that being a "top 100" pick doesn't necessarily come with the expectation of being a starter, particularly if the player was drafted in the bottom quarter of the top 100.

    If you want to look at higher picks fine.  But then don't act like "top 100" picks should always be starters.  The fact that you can list lots of Bill Belichick "busts" in the fourth round or the second round or any other round doesn't prove that BB is drafting poorly unless you can show that other teams have had more success picking in similar spots.  I showed that in spots 76 to 100, most players end up as roster filler.  The fact that Belichick's picks are also roster filler only shows that his success is similar to everyone else's.  

    I haven't looked at Belichick's success in the second round and compared it rigourously to other teams.  He may indeed have had less success than others.  But doing what you're doing--simply listing "busts" doesn't prove anything since you need to rigourously compare Belichick's picks to other teams' picks.  Until you do that, you're just talking out of Mel Kiper's arze . . .

     

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to BassFishingII's comment:

    The point, I guess, is that everyone has a lot of "busts" in this part of the draft--Belichick isn't much different from anyone else, neither better or worse for the most part.  Luck probably plays as big a factor as anything in this part of the draft . . .

    RESPONSE: But Rusty, I thought that you have previously crowed that BB was the greatest GM of all-time. But now, you're saying that "Belichick isn't much different from anyone else...neither better or worse"?? Which is it? Is he the greatest?? Or, just average? 

    He's no different than anyone else except for the fact he doesn't whiff in Rd 1 like MANY GMs do and no one uses FA in conjunction with the draft (and UDFAs) as well as he does.

    RESPONSE: A myth. Laurence Maroney in 2006 and Brandon Meriweather in 2007...whiffs? What about the the way he blew the first pick in the 2nd round in 2011 (Ras-I Dowling), the second pick in the 2nd round in 2009 (Patrick Chung), and the fourth pick in the 2nd round in 2006 (Chad Jackson)??  

    I have to say these discussions have grown incredibly tiresome, worse than the shotgun spread debates.

    RESPONSE: Of course. It's hard to defend the indefensible...LOL!!

    These are kids from college and no one has a clue how they will start off and/or progress in the NFL.  The immaturity and naive behavior from frauds like Texas Troll and other dorks who think they know more than BB is embarrassing.

    RESPONSE: A fraud?? All I'm doing is reporting facts. BB made all those poor picks from 2006-12...not I, or Mel Kiper




     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to BassFishingII's comment:

     

    LOL

    Texas Parrot being bludgeoned with ease on this topic.  Have you noticed all he does is list the names of the players who didn't make it here, but he doesn't show us a list of players who didn't make it on the other well run teams.

    RESPONSE: This is the classic, childish argument of the failure. Sorry...but "everyone else sucked too", won't cut it...especially for a guy whom you claim is the greatest GM of all-time.

    It's so transparent it's ridiculous. 

    RESPONSE: Yes, your argument is.

    For every bust or a guy who disappointed, we can point to success story or a guy who simply worked harder, was a better fit and was an UDFA, maybe a FA sign or an UDFA from another team.

    RESPONSE: Please do, Rusty...you have the floor. If not for the greatness of BB as a coach, and Tom Brady as a QB...the warts on the Patriots which have formed as a result of BB's poor drafts would be far more visible.

    There is not one GM in this league that takes every possible path better than BB. Period.

    RESPONSE: Mr. Dogmatic strikes again! I thought you just admitted above that BB was "average"?

    It's not all about the draft. The draft is a known crapshoot and the weaker a draft is not the GM's fault either.

    RESPONSE: Nonsense!! If it's not BB's fault, than whose fault is it? The buck stops at the top...especially when the M chooses to overrule and disregard his own scouts...as BB did when he selected Duron Harmon with the 91st overall pick.

     




     

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Are all

    I would figure  team like the Raiders, Browns, or Bills would have  higher success rate at drafting starters in the top 100 seeing as A. They re bad football teams and B. They draft at the top of each round. It would be difficult for all drafted players to stick on teams like the Pats old Colts and Steeers as they win more then all other teams and already had SB caliber rosters. Not all teams can be compared eqully because they are nowhere close to equal. saying the Bengals have drafted well because they have less misses then other teamsz is not a fair comparison as they typically draft hgiher and hae MORE NEEDS then most teams. it is actually just like saying the Patriots are just average because not all of their 25 players drafted in the top 100 over the last 5 years have been impact players. They win more then. anybody and have LESS NEEDS.

     
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    Re: Are all

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

    RESPONSE: A myth. Laurence Maroney in 2006 and Brandon Meriweather in 2007...whiffs? What about the the way he blew the first pick in the 2nd round in 2011 (Ras-I Dowling), the second pick in the 2nd round in 2009 (Patrick Chung), and the fourth pick in the 2nd round in 2006 (Chad Jackson)??  

    Meriweather and Maroney both contributed.  While neither was a star, they both saw significant time on the field.  Hell, Meriweather played in all 64 games he was here, starting the final 3 years he was on this team, racking up 12 INTs and well over 200 tackles.  Maroney, despite injury issues, rushed for over 2400 yards and 21 TDs, and was the #1 back on the only NFL team to go 16-0 in a regular season.

    These were the 2 most disappointing first round picks in the Belichick era, but calling them "whiffs" is an overstatement.

     
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