Are all "top 100" picks really going to be solid starters?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to UD6's comment:


    In response to TexasPat's comment:


    In response to rtuinila's comment:


    All you have here is an agenda to prove that you are smarter than BB and everyone else and you can't do that without distorting everything.


    RESPONSE: Whatever...LOL!! When I ponder who is the greater fool...the fool himself or the one who follows the fool...I must conclude that you are an even greater fool than Rusty.



    I'd pat myself on the back for my prescient comments about the way TP operates if he hadn't demonstrated such tactics so frequently before, but it is important to point out that his first response since my comments did exactly what I said.

    RESPONSE: Yes Dog(ggggg)...go right on patting yourself on the back. No one else will...LOL!!!  

      The guy is more predictable and obvious than the sun on a cloudless day. 

    RESPONSE: Huh??? As usual, your attempt at barnyard humor falls short. As is usually the case with all of your drivel, this makes no sense. What's predictable is me continuing to expose you for the fool that you are. Adios, Pinocchio!



  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from the-redsox-rule. Show the-redsox-rule's posts

    Re: Are all

    lots of them don't ever start and some don't even make the team.  the jets drafted Gholston a few years ago high in the first round and he never started. In fact, Tavon Wilson has already played more snaps than he has. Sanchez was a lousy top 5 pick too. That's just some of the Jets picks, there are more and also a lot more from other teams. Drafting isnt as easy as it looks, there are "sure things" that never pan out and as we all know there are guys that are drafted late or not at all that become stars.

    i think Belichick is one of the best, I don't agree with all of his picks, I cringed when he drafted Cunningham and Ras I Dowling but there are a few other guys he drafted that I didn't think much of that have turned out great. He's done an excellent job as GM IMO, and I love the team he's built for next season. 

  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from portfolio1. Show portfolio1's posts

    Re: Are all

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:


    One of our regular posters, a big fan of draft publications and a big critic of Bill Belichick's drafting (and especially of the Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon picks) has been claiming that a "top 100" pick has to be a starter or the pick is a bust.  Well, I went back and looked at four drafts--2006 through 2009--to see how picks 76 through 100 fared.  Rather than trying to judge "quality" of the player (a subjective thing) I simply looked at the player's last year in the league, the number of teams the player signed with, and whether the player ever made the Pro Bowl (at least as an alternate).  What I'm looking for are players who are still in the league and haven't jumped around from team to team--i.e., players who aren't journeymen, but who can start or at least be solid back ups in the league for 4 to 7 seasons (hence 2006 through 2009).  Here are the results for the 100 players (25 from each draft) I looked at.  I think when you review the list, you'll see that regardless of what our friend TexPat (or, as I prefer to call him since he seems to endlessly repeat whatever Mel Kiper and the other draftniks say, TexParrot) tells us, most late third round picks are roster filler.  Sure, you'll find exceptions, but this part of the draft is not highly productive of quality starters.


    Rd / Pick /  Team   /  Player       /        Pos / Last year in NFL/# teams / PB


    3 76 New York Jets Anthony Schlegel LB 2008/2

    3 77 St. Louis Rams Jon Alston LB 2010/3

    3 78 Cleveland Browns Travis Wilson WR 2009/3

    3 79 Atlanta Falcons Jerious Norwood RB 2011/2

    3 80 Jacksonville Jaguars Clint Ingram LB 2011/2

    3 81 San Diego Chargers Charlie Whitehurst QB Current/3

    3 82 Miami Dolphins Derek Hagan WR 2012/5

    3 83 Pittsburgh Steelers Anthony Smith S 2011/6

    3 84 San Francisco 49ers Brandon Williams WR 2009/3

    3 85 Kansas City Chiefs Brodie Croyle QB 2012/2

    3 86 New England Patriots David Thomas TE 2012/2

    3 87 Baltimore Ravens David Pittman CB 2010/4

    3 88 Carolina Panthers James Anderson LB Current/2

    3 89 Carolina Panthers Rashad Butler OT Current/3

    3 90 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Maurice Stovall WR 2012/3

    3 91 Cincinnati Bengals Frostee Rucker DE Current/3

    3 92 Dallas Cowboys Jason Hatcher DE Current/1

    3 93 St. Louis Rams Dominique Byrd TE 2011/4

    3 94 Indianapolis Colts Freddy Keiaho LB 2010/2

    3 95 Pittsburgh Steelers Willie Reid WR 2009/3

    3 96 New York Giants Gerris Wilkinson LB 2011/2

    3* 97 New York Jets Eric Smith S 2012/1

    4 98 Houston Texans Owen Daniels† TE Current/1/PB

    4 99 Philadelphia Eagles Max Jean-Gilles G 2011/3

    4 100 San Francisco 49ers Michael Robinson† RB Current/2/PB


    3 75 Atlanta Falcons Laurent Robinson WR 2012/5

    3 76 San Francisco 49ers Jason Hill WR 2012/4

    3 77 Pittsburgh Steelers Matt Spaeth TE Current/3

    3 78 Green Bay Packers James Jones WR Current/1

    3 79 Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Sims-Walker WR 2011/3

    3 80 Tennessee Titans Paul Williams WR 2010/2

    3 – Cincinnati Bengals selection forfeited    

    3 81 New York Giants Jay Alford DT 2011/3

    3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler DT 2011/3

    3 83 Carolina Panthers Charles Johnson DE Current/1

    3 84 St. Louis Rams Jonathan Wade CB 2011/4

    3 85 Seattle Seahawks Brandon Mebane DT Current/1

    3 86 Baltimore Ravens Marshal Yanda† OT Current/1/PB

    3 87 Philadelphia Eagles Stewart Bradley LB Current/3

    3 88 New Orleans Saints Andy Alleman G 2010/4

    3 89 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rouse S 2010/3

    3 90 Philadelphia Eagles Tony Hunt RB 2008/1

    3 91 Oakland Raiders Mario Henderson OT 2012/3

    3 92 Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards QB 2012/4

    3 93 Chicago Bears Garrett Wolfe RB 2010/1

    3 94 Chicago Bears Michael Okwo LB 2009/2

    3 95 Indianapolis Colts Dante Hughes CB 2012/3

    3* 96 San Diego Chargers Anthony Waters LB 2010/3

    3* 97 San Francisco 49ers Ray McDonald DE Current/1

    3* 98 Indianapolis Colts Quinn Pitcock DT 2011/3

    3* 99 Oakland Raiders Johnnie Lee Higgins WR 2011/2

    4 100 Oakland Raiders Michael Bush RB Current/2


    3 76 Kansas City Chiefs Brad Cottam TE 2011/1

    3 77 Cincinnati Bengals Pat Sims DT Current/2

    3 78 New England Patriots Shawn Crable LB 2010/2

    3 79 Houston Texans Antwaun Molden CB 2012/4

    3 80 Philadelphia Eagles Bryan Smith DE 2010/3

    3 81 Arizona Cardinals Early Doucet WR 2012/1

    3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DaJuan Morgan S 2011/3

    3 83 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jeremy Zuttah G Current/1

    3 84 Atlanta Falcons Harry Douglas WR Current/1

    3 85 Tennessee Titans Craig Stevens TE Current/1

    3 86 Baltimore Ravens Tom Zbikowski S Current/3

    3 87 Detroit Lions Andre Fluellen DT Current/4

    3 88 Pittsburgh Steelers Bruce Davis DE 2011/5

    3 89 Houston Texans Steve Slaton RB 2011/2

    3 90 Chicago Bears Marcus Harrison DT 2010/1

    3 91 Green Bay Packers Jermichael Finley TE Current/2

    3 92 Detroit Lions Cliff Avril DE Current/3

    3 93 Indianapolis Colts Philip Wheeler LB Current/3

    3 94 New England Patriots Kevin O'Connell QB 2012/6

    3 95 New York Giants Mario Manningham WR Current/2

    3* 96 Washington Redskins Chad Rinehart OT Current/4

    3* 97 Cincinnati Bengals Andre Caldwell WR Current/2

    3* 98 Atlanta Falcons Thomas DeCoud† S Current/1/PB

    3* 99 Baltimore Ravens Oniel Cousins OT Current/2

    4 100 Oakland Raiders Tyvon Branch CB Current/1


    3 76 Detroit Lions DeAndre Levy LB Current/1

    3 77 Houston Texans Antoine Caldwell C 2012/1

    3 78 San Diego Chargers Louis Vasquez G Current/2

    3 79 Pittsburgh Steelers Kraig Urbik G Current/2

    3 80 Washington Redskins Kevin Barnes CB Current/3

    3 81 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Roy Miller DT Current/2

    3 82 Detroit Lions Derrick Williams WR 2012/2

    3 83 New England Patriots Brandon Tate WR Current/2

    3 84 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Wallace† WR Current/2

    3 85 New York Giants Ramses Barden WR 2012/1

    3 86 Minnesota Vikings Asher Allen CB 2011/1

    3 87 Miami Dolphins Patrick Turner WR 2012/2

    3 88 Baltimore Ravens Lardarius Webb CB Current/1

    3 89 Tennessee Titans Jared Cook TE Current/2

    3 90 Atlanta Falcons Christopher Owens CB Current/2

    3 91 Seattle Seahawks Deon Butler WR Current/2

    3 92 Indianapolis Colts Jerraud Powers CB Current/2

    3 93 Carolina Panthers Corvey Irvin DT Current/5

    3 94 Tennessee Titans Ryan Mouton CB 2012/1

    3 95 Arizona Cardinals Rashad Johnson S Current/1

    3 96 Pittsburgh Steelers Keenan Lewis CB Current/2

    3* 97 New England Patriots Tyrone McKenzie LB Current/3

    3* 98 Cincinnati Bengals Chase Coffman TE Current/3

    3* 99 Chicago Bears Juaquin Iglesias WR 2012/3

    3* 100 New York Giants Travis Beckum TE 2012/1





         Excuse me for digressing, but you're obviously still upset over your beloved Maple Leafs. It always warms my heart to see the Canadian teams go down in flames in the play-offs. Canadian hockey fans seem to have an arrogance, and entitlement mind set about them. Let's see's been over 45 years since the Leafs have been even relevant. One has to go back to the days of Frank Mahovlich and Bobby Baun, in the sixties...LOL!!!


         Now...let's address your post. Your post is an example of how twisting and editing draft results can strengthen your argument. I've noticed that you chose not to include the second round in your analysis, above. Could it be that, with the notable exceptions of Gronk and C-Bass, BB's second round record from 2006-12 is awful?

         No one is saying that every third and 4th (since you've padded your list of busted out picks above by including 4th rounders) round pick is going to be a hit. But, when the Pats drafting record for third rounders and 4th rounders is examined, it is abyssmal:

    1.) 2006:  BUSTS...3rd round...TE David Thomas (86th overall), 4th round...TE Garrett Mills (106th overall). 4th round hit PK Stephen Gostkowski (118th overall);

    2.) 2007: BUSTS...4th rounder, DT Kareem Brown (127th overall);

    3.) 2008: BUSTS...4th rounders, LB Shawn Crable (78th overall), QB Kevin O'Connell (94th overall), and CB Johnathan Wilhite (129th overall);

    4.) 2009: BUSTS...3rd rounders, WR Brandon Tate (83rd overall), and LB Tyrone McKenzie (97th overall);

    5.) 2010: BUSTS...3rd rounder, WR Taylor Price (90th overall), and 4th round hit TE Aaron Hernandez;

    6.) 2011: 3rd round hit, Stevan Ridley (73rd overall)...the jury is still out on fellow 3rd rounder, 74th overall pick, Ryan Mallett;

    7.) 2012: BUSTS...3rd rounder Jake Bequette, 90th overall.
 the final analysis, BB salvaged himself somewhat with his 2010 and 2011 hits on Hernandez and Ridley (Ghost is just a kicker, after all). But, in round 2, he has whiffed badly on high selections, such as WR Chad Jackson, the 36th overall pick in 2006, CB Terrence Wheatley, the 62nd overall pick in 2008. In 2009, BB hit the skids with SS Patrick Chung (34th overall), DT Ron Brace (40th overall), CB Darius Butler (41st overall). In 2010, he whiffed on Jermaine Cunningham (53rd overall), and the 33rd overall pick in 2011, CB Ras-I Dowling. Finally, there was the SS pick of Tavon Wilson (48th overall), in 2012.   

         If you're happy with those results, so be it.

         Have a Molson on me, my friend!   



    I have not analyzed any of this but some observations:

    1. Tex, you do not make a comparative to show how NE's numbers (% or otherwise) stack up v the rest of the league nor who is in the top 110 teams in the league. So just saying the record is bad is not meaningful

    2. You call Bequette a bust. WAY too soon to make a statement like that. ANd I expect more from you than a fantasy football analysis. Rookies dont usually make impacts except on bad teams and in the case of especially good players or players who have been used only to their initial strength (like pass rush). This guy may end up being a bust but your assessment there is not meaningful. You should have left it off for future assessment (unless you were comparing only to such raw players - in their first year).

    3. You and some others have ignored the actual statistical analysis examples that have been raised by others here. Those STATISTICAL examples do include comparative across teams and not a fantasy football sort of unhapiness with anything other than hugely exceptional performance.


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    Re: Are all

    In response to JohnHannahrulz's comment:

    I've said this so many times my jaw and fingers are getting sore; BB has managed to turnover his roster from a dynasty team to a team that routinely makes the playoffs (take a look at 2004 roster, then 2007 roster then 2012 roster). Like any GM he has his hits and misses, all of which is trumped by the fact that he gets his team to the post-season with a roster that is different every year. He does all this despite the fact that, with scheduling, a salary cap, and draft positioning the league rules mandate parity. And you know where most  impactful players are drafted in the top 15. Impact is also one of those terms that can be loosely defined did Talib make an impact (draft choice traded)or did Dennard (7th round) make an impact or is that term only applied to the Luck and RG III 's of the draft (high picks that overwhelmingly succeed).  Pretty difficult to attain perfection in a game that is designed to be imperfect.

    Some good observations...

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    Re: Are all

    People need to realize that not many teams want to trade up for the Pats. There are two parties (at least) in every trade. If one party does not want to consummate a trade then the whole Pats should often trade-up to acquire the best talent scenario is negated. You can't dance if you don't have a partner to dance with. Also you need an ample amount of picks to trade up and if the picks aren't there any potential trading partner will, as always, look elsewhere for a better deal. SF had alot of picks this last draft, and thus was in a much better position to trade up (which they did) than the Pats.