Baltimore's New Defense.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    Let's ignore all that logic and just look at some funny numbers though. That make more sense. Oh brother.

    In simplest terms its funny how one unit goes into the game maligned and with a bad rep and plays to that reputation and the other unit goes into the game with all the accolades and best play in the game and under performs and yet some still want to blame the unit that had the bad rep to begin with and played to what they were. Will never understand that.

     



    This is a great summation...  

     

    If you have to look at odd ball statistics to try and make your point chances are you're wrong.  We knew the defense was the weaker of the two units going in, and that the offense would have to score for us to win.  The defense played to their capabilities and kept us in the game, the offense was a complete let down.  Anyone arguing something to the contrary is wrong.




    There's nothing "odd ball" about less possessions resulting in less scores.

    There's nothing odd about the fact that if you stay on the field for nearly as long as a possession should be, (5 minutes for both O and D, to complete a possession), that possessions will be decreased,

    What is "odd ball", is that this is so hard for some to understand.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     

     

     

    On average for a 16 game season...


    Team A scores 35 ppg.

    Team B scores 26 ppg

    Team A allows 21 ppg

    team B allows 25 ppg.

    Which team is more likely to score more points while allowing leSS points in a 14 possession game? A 10 possession game? A 4 possession game.

    Hint... Team A is the answer to all 3 questions.? The only factor that changes things is if one half of team A under performs.

    As Bill Belichick just said in Prolates postabove points is the number one determining factor in the outcome of a game.

    Class dismissed, you can go back to cheer leading now. Try not to drop anyone while executing the pyramid Formation.

     

     




    Here's what you don't understand.  Points per drive is a better indicator of an O's performance than points per game and possessions x's ppd ='s points.

     

    A team will not score as many points with less possessions as a rule.

    Decreased possessions means you HAVE to play mistake free.. Turn overs will hurt you more in an 8 possession game as opposed to a 12 possession game, because you have less opportunity to overcome them.

    Just as a team with a higher ppd scores more with more possessions, they also LOSE them at a higher rate with decreased possessions.

    Team A= 3pts per drive @ 12 drives ='s 36 points.

    with 8 drives ='s 24 points.

    Team B scores 2.75 points per drive with 12 possessions ='s 33 points

    With 8 possessions ='s 22 points.

    Team B closes the gap with less possessions and any mistake by team A can lose the game.

    The difference in points with 8 possessions is 2 points.  A fg will win the game.  It would not with 12 possessions, as the difference is higher.

    Simply put;

    The Pats scored 17 points on 8 possessions.

    The O lost 2 of those 8 possessions with the T/O's  which gives them 6 possessions  @ 3ppp or 18 points (Small margian of error)  Which is basically what they scored.  So the O lost 6 points by turning the ball over, twice.

    However, the D lost 4 possessions with their inability to get off the field and lost a total of 12 points, 4x's 3, with the decreased possessions.

    SO.......

    17 points  + the 6 pts the O lost with T/O's + 12 points the D lost by decreasing the possessions ='s 35 points,, in a 12 possession game (which is their point per game average)

    The O would have had to play mistake free in order to win the game (because the gints O did) (NO t/o's and no 3 and outs, THANKS, AGAIN, D!) and there was a differential of only 2 points. 

    In a 12 possession game, not so much.

     




     

     

    That is the most unbelievable reasoning I have ever heard and is EXACTLY why statisticians and computers do not coach the real thing as well as why the game is not played on paper.

    You would fit right in with the BCS computer that still had Notre Dame ranked #1 AFTER they got their rear end whooped in the National Championship game.

    Oh brother. So it's FACT the pats ONLY lost 6 points in the two turnovers huh? How do you factor in the ofense giving the other team 2 points to start with or quantify giving the other team 2 extra possessions and how that specifically affects the game plan and flow of the game right out of the shoot? Or more importantly how it affects your own defense putting them right back on the field after virtually ZERO rest. 1st offensive possession TOP = ZERO for Pats. How demoralizing is it to go out get a stop give the ball to the offense and then have to go right back on the field trailing by 2 points? How do the stats factor in momentum swings and shifts. Etc etc. Stats are BS.

    Unfair or not every reasonable person expected the offense to play mistake free or near it because thats what they were and the expectation set through their own regular season consitency. The did not and under acheived. It happens and stinks for all of us.

    It is moronic, no not calling you moronic, but moronic for a reasonable person to think the defense would play above its station/level it had set through it's consistently sub par regular season play. They were what we all knew them to be. Weak.

    To top it all off. The Patriots were winning at the half and had more offensive possessions in the 2nd hald than the Giants (5-4) and did less than the Giants did with it. Someone will probably say oh but the last possesion was end of game no time blah blah and I would agree with them but that is exactly what everyone else on here tries to do when to roll out these crazt points per possesion stats when there is no context. It's complete BS.

    The Pats had a 1 point lead at half. Take away the final possession they had in the game and it's still 4 possessions a piece in the 2nd half. All they had to do was tie in the 2nd half and they win. The offense could not match the Giants point for point with the same number of possessions and made it worse by giving one away to the Giants so they may have even had a 4 or 5 to 3 possesion advantage if they did not give one away and took some clock off in the process of getting at least three points out of the posession. Let's ignore all that logic and just look at some funny numbers though. That make more sense. Oh brother.

    In simplest terms its funny how one unit goes into the game maligned and with a bad rep and plays to that reputation and the other unit goes into the game with all the accolades and best play in the game and under performs and yet some still want to blame the unit that had the bad rep to begin with and played to what they were. Will never understand that.




    Why would anyone take into account how the defense or offense is expected to play.  If I play a game of one on one against Michael Jordan and lose 20 to 2 than I am not a better basketball player based on the idea that I wasn't expected to score 2 points. 
    It's irrelevant how well you thought they would do and how you would grade their performance vs your expectations.

    Each team had equal posessions, this will almost always be the case.  The Giants scored more than the Patriots, therefore the Giants offense performed better.  Therefore the question is did the Patriots offense perform worse than normal or better?  Did the Giants?

    So if the Patriots scored more points per drive than they average than they performed as well as usual but had fewer posessions.  If the Giants scored more points per drive than they average than they performed as well as usual but had fewer posessions.

    Since both the Patriots and Giants offense scored more points per drive than usual and the Patriots defense gave up more points per drive than usual than the defense performed worse than average and was the cause of the very few posessions.  The minimal possessions were the cause of the low scoring game.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

    In response to wozzy's comment:

     

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    Let's ignore all that logic and just look at some funny numbers though. That make more sense. Oh brother.

    In simplest terms its funny how one unit goes into the game maligned and with a bad rep and plays to that reputation and the other unit goes into the game with all the accolades and best play in the game and under performs and yet some still want to blame the unit that had the bad rep to begin with and played to what they were. Will never understand that.

     



    This is a great summation...  

     

    If you have to look at odd ball statistics to try and make your point chances are you're wrong.  We knew the defense was the weaker of the two units going in, and that the offense would have to score for us to win.  The defense played to their capabilities and kept us in the game, the offense was a complete let down.  Anyone arguing something to the contrary is wrong.

     




    There's nothing "odd ball" about less possessions resulting in less scores.

     

    There's nothing odd about the fact that if you stay on the field for nearly as long as a possession should be, (5 minutes for both O and D, to complete a possession), that possessions will be decreased,

    What is "odd ball", is that this is so hard for some to understand.



    Two baseball hitters get 4 hits.

    One gets 4 in 12 at bats, another gets 4 in 24 at bats. 

    Wozzy will take either, because in the end ... they both got 4 hits ... right?

    I'll take the one who gets 4 hits in 12 at bats. 

    There IS something "oddball" about Wozzy's choice ... but hey, logic/math isn't everyone's strong point. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    So by pezzys logic we lost the SB because our offense turned the ball over twice.....the mighty cheer leader agrees as he chips in with something from a Michael Jackson song. 

    Case closed then. Love the banter nice back and forth and I'm glad we could finally put this one to bed.

     




    Not what I said at all and I have no earthly idea why you would come to that conclusion.

     

    The Pats O squandered 2 possessions with T/O's and the Pats D squandered 4 by rarely getting of the field and forced ZERO offensive errors.  ZERO!

    The D's time on the field and the inability to force jints errors, killed the O.  KILLED IT!

    You are not scoring points when the D doesn't get the ball back any more than you would with a turn over.   The turn overs wouldn't have hurt as much with more possessions

    You do the math.

    One t/o  or 1, 3 and out by the D would have changed the outcome.

    Those are things they did regularly throught the season WITH their poor rating.

    Doing none of that is a total failure.  What would you say if the O scored ZERO points, got zero 1st downs, were on the field less than half the league average?

    They didn't, they scored on 3/8 drives.  The D failed in one way or the other, excessive 1st downs, no T/O's, no 3 & outs,  excessive QB completion %, ect..ect..ect... on EVERY drive.




     

    Here is what you said...Decreased possessions means you HAVE to play mistake free.. Turn overs will hurt you more in an 8 possession game as opposed to a 12 possession game, because you have less opportunity to overcome them.

    So considering we were the offense that turned the ball over....

    Not that it matters, a piano could fall on your head and you would tell us it didn't hurt.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    Q R S

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to bobbysu's comment:

    Especially after having a 17-9 lead. Then nothing.




    Oh but didn't you here, a game of fewer possessions favors the team that isn't as capable of scoring points or preventing scoring. It all makes since in BIZARRO WORLD

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

     

     

    There's nothing odd about the fact that if you stay on the field for nearly as long as a possession should be, (5 minutes for both O and D, to complete a possession), that possessions will be decreased,

    What is "odd ball", is that this is so hard for some to understand.

     



    Two baseball hitters get 4 hits.

     

    One gets 4 in 12 at bats, another gets 4 in 24 at bats. 

    Wozzy will take either, because in the end ... they both got 4 hits ... right?

    I'll take the one who gets 4 hits in 12 at bats. 

    There IS something "oddball" about Wozzy's choice ... but hey, logic/math isn't everyone's strong point. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Here comes Z with his fancy math.  2+2=4 and other fancy calculus eqations.  Games aren't won with math Z.  They are won with smashmouth!!!  And points.  Unless you run the ball, that will result in less points but the amount of smashmouth will make up for the points. 

    Now that's just simple logic that everyone knows.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    New article find, read it and weep.

    1.) I'm ahead of the curve. Drive stats, according to this sports writer, are the only proper way to look at a contest.

    2.) This is basically slam dunk evidence ... the Giants offense quite simply manhandled the Patriots defense. 

    And what games does it use??? The last two games between NE and NY, specifically because the score tells you nothing about how those two offenses actually performed given that the average NFL game includes 12.4 'real' drives. 

    http://m.nbcsports.com/content/opinion-drive-stats-are-future-nfl-analysis

     



    Well then it is settled. The giants and their ball control offensive game plan which only worked if their defense held our 35 ppg offense to half of its average actually outperformed our offense. You are so far ahead of the curve on this. Hey what does the "opinion" word mean in the title of that article?

     

     



    Actually, ah no. 

     

    Reread it ... the point of the article is that the Giants completely decimated NE's defense. 

    Nice job jumping back to PPG because it suits your purpose. But the NE Patriots last season averaged 33 PPG (roughly) utilizing ~13 drives per game. Extrapolated over that amount of drives (the average) NEs offense would have actually scored something closer to 28 points. 

    Unfortunately, their defense was beaten so bad (literally every single time they stepped on the field) ... they didn't get that amount of possessions. 

    Still, it was a very efficient performance, and would have ranked 7th in the NFL in efficiency. So the NYG defense reduced the Pats efficiency from 3rd to 7th, while (ouch) the Giants went from 11th most efficient to 1st, both rated against what average teams would score. 

    In short, the offense played well enough to win ... the defense basically lost the game. But then anyone watching them gack up 4 scoring drives in a row in the second half understands this without the need to resort to metrical analysis.

    And yes, the Giants' strategy was a great strategy to be the Patriots, which does not suggest the same strategy si what would have beaten the Giants. In fact, the fact that they tried to shorten the game suggests the opposite. The Giants did not want the two teams to have more possessions. They understood that more possessions benefits the team with the stronger offens e and stronger differential. 

    NE wants more possessions in that game. Cream rises to the top if you give it time.

    The strategy would be to shorten the Giants drives to counter their strategy, i.e., don't surrender a 50% 3rd down conversion rate (a stat BB preaches as if it's gospel). I.e., get the ball back to your offense in a timely manner. 

    Unfortunately, the defense played so far beneath even the meager expecations.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to bobbysu's comment:

    Especially after having a 17-9 lead. Then nothing.



    So you mean the Pats offense got a lead greater than a TD and the defense couldn't hold it?

    Really glad we (finally) put that one to bed. 

    Points being, after all, the only thing that matters. 

    The defense allowed too many.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    New article find, read it and weep.

    1.) I'm ahead of the curve. Drive stats, according to this sports writer, are the only proper way to look at a contest.

    2.) This is basically slam dunk evidence ... the Giants offense quite simply manhandled the Patriots defense. 

    And what games does it use??? The last two games between NE and NY, specifically because the score tells you nothing about how those two offenses actually performed given that the average NFL game includes 12.4 'real' drives. 

    http://m.nbcsports.com/content/opinion-drive-stats-are-future-nfl-analysis

     



    Come on Z get real. WHat does that word say that is at the start of that article link?

     

    How can I take you seriously lately when you are stats stats stats and you are not a dumb guy so we both know stats are BS and you can make them say anything you want them to say depending on what lens you are looking at them through.

     



    Really? Show me how, in per drive stats, NE's defense was "solid" in that game please? You can't make stats 'say anything.' That is a cliche.

    Raw stats can be somewhat opaque (two QBs threw 10 TDS apiece) but are rendered more or less transparent when you account for a.) the number of chances they had to throw those TDS, and b.) the quality of the competition they threw them against.

    This IS metrical analysis. It's not 'open to opinion' because it was designed to take silly cliche sayings out to pasture. Read Bill James Abstract, if you haven't already, it's eye opening. Stats cannot 'say anything.' They say who contributed to a win, and how much you can expect them to contribute down the road in similar situations. 

    Efficiency stats exist just for this reason. 

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to shenanigan's comment:

    Here comes Z with his fancy math.  2+2=4 and other fancy calculus eqations.  Games aren't won with math Z.  They are won with smashmouth!!!  And points.  Unless you run the ball, that will result in less points but the amount of smashmouth will make up for the points. 

    Now that's just simple logic that everyone knows.



    Nice one

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    Wow! This thread is making me Dizzy! I will give it to guys...  There is now way I could have imagined this thread would turn into a 15 page thread bickering about offense and defense. I mean I just Did NOT see this coming. I mean its not like thats the norm here or anything...

    Sarcasm

    Btw, dont know if you guys noticed but the team you root for(I think) is gonna be playing at home this w/e in their 2nd AFC championship in as many years..  I think the game is 6:30. You guys should check it out.


    Seriously though, LET IT GO!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from neinmd. Show neinmd's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    This debate reminds me of the poem "The Blind Men and the Elephant" by John Godfrey Saxe (1816–1887).

     

     

    The poem begins:

    It was six men of Indostan
    To learning much inclined,
    Who went to see the Elephant
    (Though all of them were blind),
    That each by observation
    Might satisfy his mind

    They conclude that the elephant is like a wall, snake, spear, tree, fan or rope, depending upon where they touch. They have a heated debate that does not come to physical violence. But in Saxe's version, the conflict is never resolved.

    And so these men of Hindustan
    Disputed loud and long,
    Each in his own opinion
    Exceeding stiff and strong,
    Though each was partly in the right
    And all were in the wrong.

    Moral:
    So oft in theologic wars,
    The disputants, I ween,
    Rail on in utter ignorance
    Of what each other mean,
    And prate about an Elephant
    Not one of them has seen
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    New article find, read it and weep.

    1.) I'm ahead of the curve. Drive stats, according to this sports writer, are the only proper way to look at a contest.

    2.) This is basically slam dunk evidence ... the Giants offense quite simply manhandled the Patriots defense. 

    And what games does it use??? The last two games between NE and NY, specifically because the score tells you nothing about how those two offenses actually performed given that the average NFL game includes 12.4 'real' drives. 

    http://m.nbcsports.com/content/opinion-drive-stats-are-future-nfl-analysis

     



    Come on Z get real. WHat does that word say that is at the start of that article link?

     

    How can I take you seriously lately when you are stats stats stats and you are not a dumb guy so we both know stats are BS and you can make them say anything you want them to say depending on what lens you are looking at them through.

     



    Really? Show me how, in per drive stats, NE's defense was "solid" in that game please?

     

     



    yes really. ...and nice lawyerly move trying to use the word solid as if you were quoting me somewhere. Just a lil thing so you and anyone else reading knows you are putting words in my mouth as you love to do. I never called them solid, anywhere.

     

    Show me in stats where the Patriots D was consistently solid in per drive stats all season long against a similarly capable opposing offense? Is that what would lead you to believe they should be anything more than what they were in the SB game?

    What you are trying to prove is that one units reputation was really a mirage. Well the D was already ranked last or near last.

    Was the Offense's rank and reputation merely a mirage then? Must have been since they need significantly more possesions to outscore the oppoenent you are saying. The Pats had 5 to the giants 4 in the 2nd half with the lead. 5>4 is some more math for you. Since you like math so much. They had more possession than the opposession and still scored fewer. They underachieved.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    Points Per Drive in SB 46

    Pats Offense:

    Pats offense points per drive in SB:  1.67 (net 15 points in 9 drives)

    Pats offense points per drive regular season:  2.79

    Giants defense points per drive allowed regular season:  1.99

    Giants defense points per drive allowed rest of post-season:  1.0 (37 points in 37 drives) 

    NFL Median Regular Season:  1.79 (Minnessota, rank 16)

    Pats Defense:

    Pats defense points per drive allowed in SB:  2.375 (net 19 points in 8 drives)

    Pats defense points per drive allowed regular season:  1.90

    Giants offense points per drive regular season:  1.98

    Giants offense points per drive rest of post-season:  2.13 (81 points in 38 drives)

    NFL Median Regular Season:  1.76 (Denver and Atlanta, rank 16/17)

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats2011

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    So by pezzys logic we lost the SB because our offense turned the ball over twice.....the mighty cheer leader agrees as he chips in with something from a Michael Jackson song. 

    Case closed then. Love the banter nice back and forth and I'm glad we could finally put this one to bed.

     




    Not what I said at all and I have no earthly idea why you would come to that conclusion.

     

    The Pats O squandered 2 possessions with T/O's and the Pats D squandered 4 by rarely getting of the field and forced ZERO offensive errors.  ZERO!

    The D's time on the field and the inability to force jints errors, killed the O.  KILLED IT!

    You are not scoring points when the D doesn't get the ball back any more than you would with a turn over.   The turn overs wouldn't have hurt as much with more possessions

    You do the math.

    One t/o  or 1, 3 and out by the D would have changed the outcome.

    Those are things they did regularly throught the season WITH their poor rating.

    Doing none of that is a total failure.  What would you say if the O scored ZERO points, got zero 1st downs, were on the field less than half the league average?

    They didn't, they scored on 3/8 drives.  The D failed in one way or the other, excessive 1st downs, no T/O's, no 3 & outs,  excessive QB completion %, ect..ect..ect... on EVERY drive.

     




     

     

    Here is what you said...Decreased possessions means you HAVE to play mistake free.. Turn overs will hurt you more in an 8 possession game as opposed to a 12 possession game, because you have less opportunity to overcome them.

    So considering we were the offense that turned the ball over....

    Not that it matters, a piano could fall on your head and you would tell us it didn't hurt.




    If a piano fell on my head, I'd probably be dead so ya I wouldn't be able to say it didn't hurt.

    Yes the O had 2 turn overs (actually 1) but the D did not.  One t/o or even one 3 & out would have neutralized that,

    The turn overs wouldn't have mattered as much, if the D had performed to half their standard,.

    Not blaming the t/o's on the D but stating that they could have helped the O by getting just one or just one 3 and out, instead we got nothing but a reduced possession game with no T/O's and no 3 & outs.  That's tough for a O to beat and exactly why no offense in the NFL has ever won a SB with such poor defensive statistics

    That means an O has to play mistake free and better than their best while the D is playing worst then their worse.  It don't work that way.  All the D needed to do was play better than their worst.  How many no 3 & out, and no t/o games did they have during the RS?

    ZERO!!

    If the O had a normal amount of possessions. ie 12, it would have been much easier to overcome that.  As it turned out, they only had 6 drives to overcome it, but with the 4 extra possessions, there would have been 10, not six.

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    ^^^^^ If the Pats win, it will be for the reasons I said.  If the Pats lose, it will be for the reasons I said.  I am always right.  LMAO I am so smart.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     

     

     

    On average for a 16 game season...


    Team A scores 35 ppg.

    Team B scores 26 ppg

    Team A allows 21 ppg

    team B allows 25 ppg.

    Which team is more likely to score more points while allowing leSS points in a 14 possession game? A 10 possession game? A 4 possession game.

    Hint... Team A is the answer to all 3 questions.? The only factor that changes things is if one half of team A under performs.

    As Bill Belichick just said in Prolates postabove points is the number one determining factor in the outcome of a game.

    Class dismissed, you can go back to cheer leading now. Try not to drop anyone while executing the pyramid Formation.

     



    The probability of team A outscoring team B is the same.  But think of flipping coins.  The probability of any single flip coming up heads is 50%.   If you flip 300 times, it's very unlikely that your overall result will vary much from 50% heads.  If you flip just 3 times, however, it's not very odd to get 100%, 67%, 33%, or 0% heads (and you'll never get 50% heads).   If you understand probabilities, you know why, when the expected result is that you will outscore your opponents, having more drives increases the likelihood that the expected result (or something close to it) will actually be achieved, while having fewer drives makes an anomalous result more likely.

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    And if you want to cherry pick Belichick quotes Prolate, the best, most succinct; "points scored, points against and turnovers are the most important stats after wins."



    I don't see rushing attempts anywhere in that list.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    The Brady Ballwashers are all mentally ill.

    Here is the real truth:

    One of Tom Brady's biggest games of his career is on Sunday night. He can show that he can actually play well for 60 minutes against Baltimore. It's been a while.  2010's matchup was the best example of that and it was when Branch returned, Moss was gone, and the balance returned to the offense for first time since late in the 2008 season when Matt Cassell was at QB and getting hot.

    You BWs BEST hope Brady has it together on Sunday. No INTs, or at least no more than 1 INT in the game.

    If he does do that crap again and has to be bailed out again, all you're doing is backing yourself into a corner here.

    Brady must be better this postseason in 2012 than he was in 2011.

    Period.

    The D will be, but will Brady? We don't know.




    The D better be, or they will lose and that includes this Sunday..  No more gacking up 2 score  leads, twice in one game, against them.

    Flacco loves the long ball and that is this D's biggest weakness, although better lately.

    They have to remain better.  We shall see!

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to shenanigan's comment:

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     

     

     

    On average for a 16 game season...


    Team A scores 35 ppg.

    Team B scores 26 ppg

    Team A allows 21 ppg

    team B allows 25 ppg.

    Which team is more likely to score more points while allowing leSS points in a 14 possession game? A 10 possession game? A 4 possession game.

    Hint... Team A is the answer to all 3 questions.? The only factor that changes things is if one half of team A under performs.

    As Bill Belichick just said in Prolates postabove points is the number one determining factor in the outcome of a game.

    Class dismissed, you can go back to cheer leading now. Try not to drop anyone while executing the pyramid Formation.

     

     




    Here's what you don't understand.  Points per drive is a better indicator of an O's performance than points per game and possessions x's ppd ='s points.

     

    A team will not score as many points with less possessions as a rule.

    Decreased possessions means you HAVE to play mistake free.. Turn overs will hurt you more in an 8 possession game as opposed to a 12 possession game, because you have less opportunity to overcome them.

    Just as a team with a higher ppd scores more with more possessions, they also LOSE them at a higher rate with decreased possessions.

    Team A= 3pts per drive @ 12 drives ='s 36 points.

    with 8 drives ='s 24 points.

    Team B scores 2.75 points per drive with 12 possessions ='s 33 points

    With 8 possessions ='s 22 points.

    Team B closes the gap with less possessions and any mistake by team A can lose the game.

    The difference in points with 8 possessions is 2 points.  A fg will win the game.  It would not with 12 possessions, as the difference is higher.

    Simply put;

    The Pats scored 17 points on 8 possessions.

    The O lost 2 of those 8 possessions with the T/O's  which gives them 6 possessions  @ 3ppp or 18 points (Small margian of error)  Which is basically what they scored.  So the O lost 6 points by turning the ball over, twice.

    However, the D lost 4 possessions with their inability to get off the field and lost a total of 12 points, 4x's 3, with the decreased possessions.

    SO.......

    17 points  + the 6 pts the O lost with T/O's + 12 points the D lost by decreasing the possessions ='s 35 points,, in a 12 possession game (which is their point per game average)

    The O would have had to play mistake free in order to win the game (because the gints O did) (NO t/o's and no 3 and outs, THANKS, AGAIN, D!) and there was a differential of only 2 points. 

    In a 12 possession game, not so much.

     




     

     

    That is the most unbelievable reasoning I have ever heard and is EXACTLY why statisticians and computers do not coach the real thing as well as why the game is not played on paper.

    You would fit right in with the BCS computer that still had Notre Dame ranked #1 AFTER they got their rear end whooped in the National Championship game.

    Oh brother. So it's FACT the pats ONLY lost 6 points in the two turnovers huh? How do you factor in the ofense giving the other team 2 points to start with or quantify giving the other team 2 extra possessions and how that specifically affects the game plan and flow of the game right out of the shoot? Or more importantly how it affects your own defense putting them right back on the field after virtually ZERO rest. 1st offensive possession TOP = ZERO for Pats. How demoralizing is it to go out get a stop give the ball to the offense and then have to go right back on the field trailing by 2 points? How do the stats factor in momentum swings and shifts. Etc etc. Stats are BS.

    Unfair or not every reasonable person expected the offense to play mistake free or near it because thats what they were and the expectation set through their own regular season consitency. The did not and under acheived. It happens and stinks for all of us.

    It is moronic, no not calling you moronic, but moronic for a reasonable person to think the defense would play above its station/level it had set through it's consistently sub par regular season play. They were what we all knew them to be. Weak.

    To top it all off. The Patriots were winning at the half and had more offensive possessions in the 2nd hald than the Giants (5-4) and did less than the Giants did with it. Someone will probably say oh but the last possesion was end of game no time blah blah and I would agree with them but that is exactly what everyone else on here tries to do when to roll out these crazt points per possesion stats when there is no context. It's complete BS.

    The Pats had a 1 point lead at half. Take away the final possession they had in the game and it's still 4 possessions a piece in the 2nd half. All they had to do was tie in the 2nd half and they win. The offense could not match the Giants point for point with the same number of possessions and made it worse by giving one away to the Giants so they may have even had a 4 or 5 to 3 possesion advantage if they did not give one away and took some clock off in the process of getting at least three points out of the posession. Let's ignore all that logic and just look at some funny numbers though. That make more sense. Oh brother.

    In simplest terms its funny how one unit goes into the game maligned and with a bad rep and plays to that reputation and the other unit goes into the game with all the accolades and best play in the game and under performs and yet some still want to blame the unit that had the bad rep to begin with and played to what they were. Will never understand that.

     




    Why would anyone take into account how the defense or offense is expected to playIf I play a game of one on one against Michael Jordan and lose 20 to 2 than I am not a better basketball player based on the idea that I wasn't expected to score 2 points. 
    It's irrelevant how well you thought they would do and how you would grade their performance vs your expectations.

     

    Each team had equal posessions, this will almost always be the case.  The Giants scored more than the Patriots, therefore the Giants offense performed better.  Therefore the question is did the Patriots offense perform worse than normal or better?  Did the Giants?

    So if the Patriots scored more points per drive than they average than they performed as well as usual but had fewer posessions.  If the Giants scored more points per drive than they average than they performed as well as usual but had fewer posessions.

    Since both the Patriots and Giants offense scored more points per drive than usual and the Patriots defense gave up more points per drive than usual than the defense performed worse than average and was the cause of the very few posessions.  The minimal possessions were the cause of the low scoring game.

     



    Wow why would you ever self scout and evaluate your own team and set realisictic expectations for yourself as a coach as to what your team is and or can't do well? Can you really be seriously? How exactly to do game plan without knowing your own weaknesses as well as your opponents? I am beginning to think I am am the only guy on the board with a lengthy coaching background. I know I am getting old but not senile yet. Almost don't know what to say to you  after that comment. Maybe I just misunderstood your context but I can assure you that as a coach you have certain realistic expectations of exactly what you think your team and its individual units can accomplish going into a game.

     

    As for you playing basketball against Michael jordan... well I don't think it matters who it is but if you play ball against player x and players of similar caliber a number of times and average scoring 30 points a game win or lose. Then go on to play in a championship match against the same similarly skilled player type but only score 17( or change the numbers to what ever you wish like always score 6 points and then only score 2 for example), then me as your friend or observer I would say to you that  I do not necessarily think you are a worse basketball player but you definatley under achieved in that particular game based on what you have consistently shown me up to that point.

     

    Just my opinion.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    ^^^^^ If the Pats win, it will be for the reasons I said.  If the Pats lose, it will be for the reasons I said.  I am always right.  LMAO I am so smart.

     




    I am more realistic and smarter than you, I know that TCal/Mighty.  In your world, in a QB/offensive league, it's important our own HOF QB play mediocre as a way to help the team win.  Yes, gee, that's a swell premise. 

     

    What does it feel like to be an adult and only be able to articulate or communicate your points like that of a 12 year old?  lol

    Personally, if I were you Id never post, but then again, it's clear why you're posts don't really ever say anything and max out at 7 words. LMAO

    Insecurity is an ugly trait.  It means you won't get far in life. Good luck, though. 

     

     

    The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) defines six subtypes of the disorder characterized as erotomanic (believes that someone is in love with him/her), grandiose (believes that he/she is the greatest, strongest, fastest, richest, and/or most intelligent person ever), jealous (believes that the love partner is cheating on him/her), persecutory (believes that someone is following him/her to do some harm in some way), somatic (believes that he/she has a disease or medical condition), and mixed, i.e., having features of more than one subtype.[2] Delusions also occur as symptoms of many other mental disorders, especially the other psychotic disorders


     

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