Baltimore's New Defense.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    Wozzy, no one is saying the offense had a great performance in the Super Bowl.  It was distinctly mediocre.  Our points all along have been two:

    • We don't believe (as you apparently do) that running more would have necessarily improved the offensive results.  
    • We think that the defense played very poorly too and allowed the Giants to mount long drives, which limited our own offense's opportunities to score, while also allowing the Giants to score on half their useable drives and complete 75% of 40 passes.

    We also believe that last year's offense, while lacking in diversity and balance and therefore having some significant vulnerabilities, was quite good and well-designed for the particular talent on the offensive side of the ball and the challenge of having a defense that gave up lots of points (often quickly) and therefore necessitated a higher scoring offense. 

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    If you had told me we had a 10-9 lead at the half, only scored 7 points in the second half, I'd have said we lost the SB.

    And we did.

    Case closed.

    You cannot score 17 points in this era's SBs unless you play a one in a million game and lob balls downfeld for helmet catches like we saw in SB 42, where it's a fluke.

    Get over it. If NE wins on Sunday, the discussion will be yet again, can Brady and the offene score more than 20 points, for the love of god!

    It's not 2003 anymore. It's 2012. We're almost a full decade removed from the Tagliabue era where Goodell has been brought in to shape this league for points and our offense is WORSE in the red zone?

     

     

     




    Completely false, all of it!

    If you tell me we have a 9 point lead in the 3rd qtr and the D gives up scoring plays on 3 of 4 possessions, I'd say we lost.

    Points per game, per team, have only increased by 1 freaken point since that era. 1 point!

    Which means average D's are keeping up.

    The problem is, the Pats D played far worse than the average D.

    Your opinion of their play does not matter!!!!  Your opinion couldn't be any more far removed from REALITY!

    The stats tell the story.  The Pats offensive stats were in line with a good or effecient Offense.  The D's were not.

    Do you know what a 102 DPR means?  It means the defense is allowing the opposing qb a 102 passer rating.  Think about that for one second.

    The D allowed ELI Manning a 102 passer rating.

    An elite D would allow a passer rating of the 65-75 range.  TB's was an 89 and a 100 before the last drive.

    Here's a little (SHOCKING) perspective from CHFF for this year.

    And right now it might be even worse than you think. The Patriots enter Week 11 No. 28 league-wide in Defensive Passer Rating (97.3). Put another way, opposing quarterbacks torch them for a 97.3 passer rating week after week.

    For a little perspective, future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback

    Tom Brady, the leader of the most consistently prolific offenses in football history, boasts a career passer rating of 96.6.

    That’s right: the 2012 Patriots make every quarterback look better than Tom Brady   THE PATS D gave up a 102 in the SB to ELI MANNING, for the love of GOD!!!!! Put that in your perspective!!!!!
     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    The Patriot's offense couldn't sustain any drives, couldn't score more than 17 points and turned it over twice.  To try and paint that as great offense is a joke, and anyone who buys into this junk science is either over thinking it or a complete maroon.

    I'm not going to continue arguing this because I believe it to be complete garbage and arguing with fools makes me look foolish.  When BB comes out and states how important average per drive stats are, then maybe then I'll listen, but instead what we have is a group who have been vehemently insisting that the running game plays no part in a successful championship team and that a team can win by passing alone trying to convince us that this turd the Pat's offense laid was really gold.



    I don't think anyone has ever said that the Patriots offense was great in the last Super Bowl.  I certainly haven't.  In fact I think the offense was worse than a lot of other posters who disagree with you.  However I think the defense also played incredibly poorly in a way that is not reflected by looking at the absolute point total which is why I mention the points per possession.  There seems to be this notion among some posters that the D played well enough to win and the O did not.  I do not think either unit did.

    As for your claim about BB talking about points he is by definition talking about points per drive.  Teams that score more points almost always score more points per drive (because over the course of a season there isn't a huge difference in the number of drives teams have although there is more variation game to game).  The correlation between points per drive and total points is pretty dam close to 1.

    In any event I think we can all agree that both sides of the ball are playing better football this year than last year and that we all want the Pats to bring home another Lombardi.  So on that note.  Go PATS.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    Brady threw an INT in the game. An awful one. The worst of his career.

    The ball was not tipped, it was't a great play, etc. It was a gift. A big, fat GIFT.



    Yeah I don't agree with either of those statements.  The result of the play (INT) was bad because of the situation, but it was hardly the worst of his career.  I still think it was a good decision.  It was a broken play and Gronk was wide open when he threw it.  He just underthrew it and Blackburn made a good play and Gronk didn't do anything to break it up.  In my view it required poor execution by Brady and Gronk as well as a good play by Blackburn to get the result we saw.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    Brady threw an INT in the game. An awful one. The worst of his career. Eli Manning did not.

    Case closed.

    All Brady had to do was not throw that ball to Blackburn and they likely win the SB.  An INT on 1st down in enemy territory in a game that close is unacceptable if your Tony Romo or Tom Brady.

    The ball was not tipped, it was't a great play, etc. It was a gift. A big, fat GIFT.

    Enjoy Pezzy! Enjoy those stained, autographed panties you're wearing on your head.




    Again, Dumb!

    QB play is always contingent on the D they are playing.

    It is more likely you throw a pic against a rotten D than it is you will throw a pick against a good or or even mediocre D.

    ELI put up a 102 PR against a very, very poor defense.

    It's like beating up on a girl.  The Pats D played like girls.  Case closed.!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from CaptainZdeno33. Show CaptainZdeno33's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    "Scoring Ds"?  NE's D has led the AFC 3 straight years in turnovers created. That means Brady gets far more drives than most QBs in this league.

    Your lover has to be better in the postseason, especially AFC title games. His last 2 at home yielded a total of FIVE Ints.

     




    Sorry but your previous post stated that regular season stats mean nothing so what is your point in the above? How many turnovers has the NE defense forced in the playoffs in those 3 years? Brady isn't the only one that needs to play better in the postseason.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    In response to CaptainZdeno33's comment:

     

    In response to RockScully's comment:

     

    "Scoring Ds"?  NE's D has led the AFC 3 straight years in turnovers created. That means Brady gets far more drives than most QBs in this league.

    Your lover has to be better in the postseason, especially AFC title games. His last 2 at home yielded a total of FIVE Ints.

     

     




    Sorry but your previous post stated that regular season stats mean nothing so what is your point in the above? How many turnovers has the NE defense forced in the playoffs in those 3 years? Brady isn't the only one that needs to play better in the postseason.

     

     



    Umm, BB decided to rebuild this D starting in 2009 when he jettisoned Vrabel and Seymour.

     

    So, to be fair, scrap 2009 (for both sides, Welker got hurt, not good, etc).

    In 2010, BB's D started 4 rookies.  Maybe if they weren't on the field so much after turnovers, it may have been different?

    Last year, they picked Flacco and it should have iced the game. 

    Say what you want, but Brady has 6 TDs and 7 INTs, career in AFC title games.  You cannot dispute what exists.    Also, are yu disputing it's a QB/offensive era?

    17 offensive candidates were just interviewed for jobs. For defensive types?  6.

    Do the math. Lovie Smith may need to be out of football for a year because no one wants a defensive minded coach.

    Be happy we have the best GM and head coach in the league.  Bashing BB for transitioning the way he did in 2009, into 2010, to build this thing on D is dumb.  To act like it affected how Brady throws a ball, runs an offense, or executes with a loaded offense when he's on the field, is also dumb.

    Every NFL fan outside of NE is DROOLING over what Brady has year in and year out on offense. 

    We lose Gronk and it may not matter. That's how loaded this offense is.  The only guy we're waiting on to be better in an AFC title game is #12.

    Deal with it. Even if I give him passes in the 2006 AFC title game due to some personnel weaknesses, that offense and he still folded in that second half. Their only TD came off of an Ellis Hobb's 80 yard kick off return.

    2004 was his last AFC title game where he was Brady. That is EIGHT years ago!

    Jesus. He can erase all of that on Sunday night. 




    Nice try at spinning, but it's nothing but a spin.

    Ne's D has sucked since 2005. 2007's was only relevant because the O was so dominating, they rarely took the field and when they did, the other team always had the disadvantage of playing from behind. The Pats are notorious for playing with a lead which aids them defensively.  The problem surfaces, when they don't have a huge lead. 

    Then, the true colors come out.  Compound that problem with the fact that, no matter what the O scores, they can give up more points to the opposition.

    It does not matter if your O scores 17 or 34, if your D allows one more point than that.

    We all have seen that happen in 95% of the losses.

    TB, is a great QB, no doubt, he can beat both good and bad defenses, but the equalizer is always how good his own D plays.  He makes it easier on them by having a lead, but when that is not in the cards, (it never will be 100% of the time), they fail,  Not only do they fail, they make it harder on him to suceed.  ( 8 possession games are a perfect example of this), which is a double whammy.

    In the SB, not only did they give up more points but they gave up more time.

    Way more time! 

    DOUBLE whammy, deluxe!

    Oh, and no one is drooling over NE's offensive weapons.  Sure they have a lot of talent (mainly 3 guys) but you have to also look at the unit collectively.   There are more mediocre or even poor, play makers than there are talented ones.

    On a scale, I would say the Ravens, have more and so did the Jints. 

    Didn't see any one drooling over Ocho or Underwood or any of the vast majority of recievers that the Pats employed throught their 12 years of dominance.  Branch was probably the loan exception.  

    How'd that turn out?  He couldn't do squat, without TB.

    Do you think (and i'm not trying to take away from Gronks talent) that Gronk would have been the TD leader if he had Sanchez throwing to him?  How about Welker and his stats?

    Would they be the same?  Doubtful!

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

    There seems to be this notion among some posters that the D played well enough to win and the O did not.  I do not think either unit did.

    As for your claim about BB talking about points he is by definition talking about points per drive.

    In any event I think we can all agree that both sides of the ball are playing better football this year than last year and that we all want the Pats to bring home another Lombardi.  So on that note.  Go PATS.



    No I'm pretty sure Belichick meant exactly what he said.  He doesn't care what the number of drives are, how long they lasted or what their average is for the season was, the very notion that he would care or even pay attention to these arbitrary, meaningless stats is ludicrous.  I agree he wants his offense to perform in the clutch and that's why he brought McDaniels/tightends/fullbacks/runningbacks back into the fold.  The NFL is a results based business, stats are for losers.

    And yes there is a notion that the defense played well enough to win, certainly it's a team game and you win and lose as a team but if the offense could have sustained ONE drive in the 4th quarter the game would be over. Don't tell me it was the defense's fault when they held the Giants to more punts than the we held them to, including one after a safety and after having forced them to punt when Brady threw that disaster of an INT to start the 4th. The offense hung the defense out to dry.

    Have our expectations dropped so low? This offense used to march down the field with a minute left and ice Super Bowl games, now they can't score at all in 4 possessions in the 4th quarter and you blame the defense.  Just dumb.

    The one thing we can agree on is that this offense and defense are playing better, but if we had the same defense we have now and last years offense we would still lose either the AFC title game or the Super Bowl, that we can run the clock out now because of a power run game and score more points thanks to play action makes this year's offense substantially better than anything we've seen since 2007.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to CaptainZdeno33's comment:

    In response to RockScully's comment:

     

    "Scoring Ds"?  NE's D has led the AFC 3 straight years in turnovers created. That means Brady gets far more drives than most QBs in this league.

    Your lover has to be better in the postseason, especially AFC title games. His last 2 at home yielded a total of FIVE Ints.

     

     




    Sorry but your previous post stated that regular season stats mean nothing so what is your point in the above? How many turnovers has the NE defense forced in the playoffs in those 3 years? Brady isn't the only one that needs to play better in the postseason.

     




    Yup, Only is Rusty's world do QB, hits, Dropped Passes, poor defensive play....ect, ect, ect, NOT matter.

    It's all on the QB who better not throw a pick or more than 40 passes.

    There ya go folks.

    FootBall for Dummies, volume I.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to wozzy's comment:



    No I'm pretty sure Belichick meant exactly what he said.  He doesn't care what the number of drives are, how long they lasted or what their average is for the season was, the very notion that he would care or even pay attention to these arbitrary, meaningless stats is ludicrous.  



    Do you think it is possible to score a lot of points without scoring a lot of points per drive?  The top 5 scoring teams in the NFL this year were NE, DEN, NO, WASH and GB.  They ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 8th in points per drive this year.  You can't say points matter and say points per drive do not.  They are highly correlated.

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    Yeah NE's defense has not sucked since 2005.  Do not lump everyone with Pezz.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

     

     


    Do you think it is possible to score a lot of points without scoring a lot of points per drive?  The top 5 scoring teams in the NFL this year were NE, DEN, NO, WASH and GB.  They ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 8th in points per drive this year.  You can't say points matter and say points per drive do not.  They are highly correlated.

     



    Each game is a new game, what you've done in the past has no bearing on the next game.  In football you take it one play at a time, one first down at a time.  Does any of this sound familiar, the Patriots preach it each and every week.  Stats are for people like you and me to sit around and argue.  

     

    Belichick expects his offense to score points, either by TD or field goal, on every possession.  He surely has the same exacting standards for the defense and special teams.  Averages don't mean squat in the context of one game.  The Patriots had 9 possessions, they scored 17 points, turned it over twice and gave back 2 points on a safety.  

    If they scored two TD's and a single field goal I don't know how you guys arrive at "well they scored on 63% of their drives," no they didn't, they scored on three drives and the other six they left their team and their defense in poor field position, turned the ball over twice and relinquished 2 points; in short they stunk.  Averages are BS, the Patriot's team now is substantially better than the Pat's team in September.

    They had the ball last with a minute to play and threw three straight incompletions, but the game was lost in the hour leading up to that failure to execute and mainly in the three previous possessions in the 4th.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    I never realised how many statisticans we have on this website.

    First we have passer ratings , then wait, QBR is better.? Oh wait doesn't Troy Aikmen have his own methodology for QB ratiings? Statisticians are always changing their methodology and arguing about who's way is best or what matters most. Especially when it doesn't go the way they want or predict.

    Oh well we need to tweak the computer algorithms more because Notre Dame ended up #1 AFTER getting crushed. I know I mentioned it alot but to me personally it really is hilarious and shows just how useless the stats things is most times.

    No lets draw a line in the sand here and not include that set of numbers. We only want to use this set of numbers. No wait lets put our finger in the air and check the wind and make the criteria this instead of that from now on, etc etc.

    They will finagle it until they get what they want and then rest on that until the game changes and those predictions or consistency starts to not fair so well anymore and then yet again change how they calculate them all over again.

    Sorry for the font change, worked on it in notepad and changed when pasted it in.

    very simplistic view of some stats


    2011 unit rankings

    Total Defense
    NE Pats  31st (6577)
    Giants   27th (6022)
    Difference of 4 spots and 555 yards


    Total Offense
    NE Pats 2nd (6848)
    Giants 8th (6161)
    Difference of 6 spots and 687 yards


    Pats offense gained 419 more yards than the Giants allowed in the regular season
    Giants offense gained  139 more yards than the Pats allowed in the regular season 



    So even though the "stats" ,which I still believe are mostly just BS without tons of sport specific context to them, show the Pats offense disparity over the giants D should have allowed them to fair better over the giants than the Giants offense over the Pats D.... You could argue it from the other angle as well. Let's call it a wash for the sake of the following...  

    People have been throwing around Points Per Drive. I was curious so I went and calculated it myself and used apples to apples(as much as possible) not the entire season. I used the Pats and Giants offensive and Defensive end of season unit rankings for both yards & points scored or allowed per game as the bench mark respectively. So I used 4 opponents offensive of defensive unit for each calculation that happened to play the Patriots that season who were VERY similarly ranked or more often better. I did not care, compare, or include how the offense did in PPD vs a defense that was far worse than the Giants for example. The same for the Pats D. I did not include how they performed against offense's far worse than the Giants ranked.  

    I also used "ALL" the numbers. I did not draw a line in the sand and lop off possessions at the end of a half or game that were a bunch of kneel downs for either side. Sorry I do not belive in that. I do not think it is any more hurtful to the PPD number for the offense to kneel than it is for the PPD numbers of a defense when it gives up garbage points with a 4 possession lead at the end of the game when it doesn't matter and there is no intensity left in the game. So every possesion is included.  

    Here is how it came out.  

    ------------------------------------------------------

    ((TOTAL defense rankings))


    giants defense 27th ranked
    O vs Giants reg sea
    13 possessions - 1.53 ppd

    O vs colts 25th ranked in reg season
    11 possessions - 2.81 ppd

    O vs Buffalo 26th ranked defense
    game 1
    11 possessions - 3.90 ppd (* -6 from 49 for pick 6 *)

    game 2
    14 possessions - 2.41 ppd

    avg ppd of 2.66(using total D) vs SB of 1.88 = offense underperformed by .78 ppd


    ----------------------------------------------------------
    ((Points Per Game Allowed defense rankings))


    O vs giants 25th using pts/g
    13 possessions - 1.53 ppd

    O vs chargers 22nd ranked
    11 possessions - 3.18 ppd

    O vs jets 20th ranked
    game 1
    12 possessions - 3.08 ppd

    game 2
    11 possessions - 2.72 ppd

    avg ppd of 2.62(using pts/g) vs SB of 1.88 = offense underperformed by .74 ppd

    -------------------------------------------------------


      ((combined similar defense rankings))

    O Scored 2.64 ppd(combined similar D's) in regular seasons vs SB of 1.88 = offense underperformed by .76 ppd compared to how they performed in regular season against similarly ranked defensive units as the Giants had  

     

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Patriots defensive production versus offenses of similar statistical caliber as the Giants  

    ((TOTAL offense rankings))  

    D vs San Diego 6th ranked

    10 possessions - 2.1 ppd  

     

    D vs Philadelphia 4th ranked

    11 possessions - 1.81 ppd  

     

    D vs Giants 8th ranked

    13 possessions - 1.85 ppd  

     

    D vs Oakland 9th ranked

    9 possessions - 2.11 ppd  

     

    avg ppd of 1.97 (using total offense rank) vs SB of 2.11 ppd = defense underperformed by .14 ppd  

    -------------------------------------------------------

    ((Points Per Game Scored rankings))  

    D vs San Diego 5th ranked

    10 possessions - 2.1 ppd  

     

    D vs Philadelphia 8th ranked

    11 possessions - 1.81 ppd  

     

    D vs Giants 9th ranked

    13 possessions - 1.85 ppd  

     

    D vs Baltimore 12th ranked

    11 possessions - 1.81 ppd (** AFCCG - all other games regular season ***)  

     

    avg ppd of 1.89 (using pts/g scored) vs SB of 2.11 ppd = defense underperformed by .22 ppd   

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ((combined similar offense rankings))  

    D Gave up 1.93 ppd(combined similar offenses) in regular season vs SB  of 2.11 = defense underperformed by .18 ppd compared to how they performed in regular season against similarly ranked offensive units as the Giants had  

     

    It seems to me that both units underachieved compared to the regular season.  ...but as I have maintained strictly with the eyeball test, these numbers also appear to show the offense underachieved more than the defense did.  

     

    Now anyone can go off on me and argue its all flawed the way I did it for this or that reason. I won't really push back because I frankly do not believe in all this stat BS. It's possible the way I did it is flawed(even possible i just made a couple calculation mistakes but tried to be careful), although seems good enough for me. I would simply say I have a similar view, if you don't like the methodology, in regards to the the stats you seem to enjoy. I don't think any of the methodologies account for enough football context to the stats.  

    Just my opinion. ...but I did enjoy seeing "these" stats tell me what my eyes witnessed.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from CaptainZdeno33. Show CaptainZdeno33's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

     

    Yeah NE's defense has not sucked since 2005.  Do not lump everyone with Pezz.

     




    Well, Captain Zedeno came out with that little nugget, with Pezzy jumping on board.

     

    See, it's dramatic word choices like that, which really show how desperate the Washers are to deflect from the truth about what Brady and the offense need to do.

    Can you imagine if Brady throws 40+ times on Sunday night and we lose again?

    Please don't make me come in here. Please.




    Please, Rusty. You said regular season stats don't matter and less than 5 minutes later you're throwing out regular season stats to support your argument so I simply called you out like you constantly do to myself as well as others. Get a grip man.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from CaptainZdeno33. Show CaptainZdeno33's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    Where did I say NE's defense sucks? Its so pointless arguing with you, good day.

     
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