Baltimore's New Defense.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

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    Numbers per drive is complete horsesh-t!  

     



    It's really not.  If it wasn't what would be the point of trying to beat great offenses by holding the ball.  It's to give them less opportunities to score because most people realize that how many times you score is related to how many opportunities you get.  Think about it.  If your opponent scored a TD every time they had the ball it wouldn't matter how long you held it.  It is the fact that they don't and you think you can stop them a few times that makes holding the ball valuable.  It isn't the whole story, but to pretend it is irrelevant completely flies in the face of the logic behind why you think we should run the ball.

     

     



    Exactly. Wozzy doesn't seem to get that the argument he made repeatedly last year about the need to hold the ball longer is exactly the same argument that the number of drives matters, just in different words. Given that the game length is fixed at 60 minutes, longer drives mean fewer drives which means fewer scoring chances for your opponent.  

      Wrong! It is not the "exact" same thing.

     

     


    Actually it pretty much is

     



    no it's not.

     

     

    having a single possession drive that lasts 7 or 8 minutes or 4 possessions that in total combined lasts 7-8 minutes are not the same thing as it relates to the argument of "possessions". 

    4 possessions does not necessarily give you more time of possession but it does potentially put your defense back on the field alot more.

    That is why it is not the "Exact" same thing.

     

     




    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

     

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.



    Excuse me we are talking about our offense not the opposing teams.

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    Our defense has been the weak point not our offense.

     

    Let me guess you must be one of those that assumes you only run a ball control offensive possesion when you are trying to keep a great offense of the other team off the field?

     

    If the Pats have a comfortable lead they do not need a ton of extra possessions and score quickly they need to protect their "OWN" weak point and keep their own D off the field, within reason, while systematically paying attention to running some clock.

     

    The time of possession "maintained" not specifically the number of possessions total is what is important at that point for your offense. Especially if you "supposedly" have a juggernaut offense lead by the greatest player of all time. You control and dictate the pace and the situation dictates in those circumstances you protect yourself by maintaining possession, as much as posible without becoming ultra conservative, therby shortening the game, AND keeping your weak point off the field for more time.

     

    That is why people bring up the running thing. Not how often or how many runs OR posessions but managing and utilizing your strongest unit to the best benefit of the "TEAM" will give you the greatest chance of winning, in the appropriate situations.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     

    On average for a 16 game season...


    Team A scores 35 ppg.

    Team B scores 26 ppg

    Team A allows 21 ppg

    team B allows 25 ppg.

    Which team is more likely to score more points while allowing leSS points in a 14 possession game? A 10 possession game? A 4 possession game.

    Hint... Team A is the answer to all 3 questions.? The only factor that changes things is if one half of team A under performs.

    As Bill Belichick just said in Prolates postabove points is the number one determining factor in the outcome of a game.

    Class dismissed, you can go back to cheer leading now. Try not to drop anyone while executing the pyramid Formation.

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     



    wait. you are calling me a kindergardner? lol Nice.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     

     

     

    On average for a 16 game season...


    Team A scores 35 ppg.

    Team B scores 26 ppg

    Team A allows 21 ppg

    team B allows 25 ppg.

    Which team is more likely to score more points while allowing leSS points in a 14 possession game? A 10 possession game? A 4 possession game.

    Hint... Team A is the answer to all 3 questions.? The only factor that changes things is if one half of team A under performs.

    As Bill Belichick just said in Prolates postabove points is the number one determining factor in the outcome of a game.

    Class dismissed, you can go back to cheer leading now. Try not to drop anyone while executing the pyramid Formation.

     




    Here's what you don't understand.  Points per drive is a better indicator of an O's performance than points per game and possessions x's ppd ='s points.

    A team will not score as many points with less possessions as a rule.

    Decreased possessions means you HAVE to play mistake free.. Turn overs will hurt you more in an 8 possession game as opposed to a 12 possession game, because you have less opportunity to overcome them.

    Just as a team with a higher ppd scores more with more possessions, they also LOSE them at a higher rate with decreased possessions.

    Team A= 3pts per drive @ 12 drives ='s 36 points.

    with 8 drives ='s 24 points.

    Team B scores 2.75 points per drive with 12 possessions ='s 33 points

    With 8 possessions ='s 22 points.

    Team B closes the gap with less possessions and any mistake by team A can lose the game.

    The difference in points with 8 possessions is 2 points.  A fg will win the game.  It would not with 12 possessions, as the difference is higher.

    Simply put;

    The Pats scored 17 points on 8 possessions.

    The O lost 2 of those 8 possessions with the T/O's  which gives them 6 possessions  @ 3ppp or 18 points (Small margian of error)  Which is basically what they scored.  So the O lost 6 points by turning the ball over, twice.

    However, the D lost 4 possessions with their inability to get off the field and lost a total of 12 points, 4x's 3, with the decreased possessions.

    SO.......

    17 points  + the 6 pts the O lost with T/O's + 12 points the D lost by decreasing the possessions ='s 35 points,, in a 12 possession game (which is their point per game average)

    The O would have had to play mistake free in order to win the game (because the gints O did) (NO t/o's and no 3 and outs, THANKS, AGAIN, D!) and there was a differential of only 2 points. 

    In a 12 possession game, not so much.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

    Here's what you don't understand.  Points per drive is a better indicator of an O's performance than points per game and possessions x's ppd ='s points.

    A team will not score as many points with less possessions as a rule.

    Decreased possessions means you HAVE to play mistake free.. Turn overs will hurt you more in an 8 possession game as opposed to a 12 possession game, because you have less opportunity to overcome them.

    Just as a team with a higher ppd scores more with more possessions, they also LOSE them at a higher rate with decreased possessions.

    Team A= 3pts per drive @ 12 drives ='s 36 points.

    with 8 drives ='s 24 points.

    Team B scores 2.75 points per drive with 12 possessions ='s 33 points

    With 8 possessions ='s 22 points.

    Team B closes the gap with less possessions and any mistake by team A can lose the game.

    The difference in points with 8 possessions is 2 points.  A fg will win the game.  It would not with 12 possessions, as the difference is higher.

    Simply put;

    The Pats scored 17 points on 8 possessions.

    The O lost 2 of those 8 possessions with the T/O's  which gives them 6 possessions  @ 3ppp or 18 points (Small margian of error)  Which is basically what they scored.  So the O lost 6 points by turning the ball over, twice.

    However, the D lost 4 possessions with their inability to get off the field and lost a total of 12 points, 4x's 3, with the decreased possessions.

    SO.......

    17 points  + the 6 pts the O lost with T/O's + 12 points the D lost by decreasing the possessions ='s 35 points,, in a 12 possession game (which is their point per game average)

    The O would have had to play mistake free in order to win the game (because the gints O did) (NO t/o's and no 3 and outs, THANKS, AGAIN, D!) and there was a differential of only 2 points. 

    In a 12 possession game, not so much.



    A B C D ...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    So by pezzys logic we lost the SB because our offense turned the ball over twice.....the mighty cheer leader agrees as he chips in with something from a Michael Jackson song. 

    Case closed then. Love the banter nice back and forth and I'm glad we could finally put this one to bed.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     

    Here's what you don't understand.  Points per drive is a better indicator of an O's performance than points per game and possessions x's ppd ='s points.

    A team will not score as many points with less possessions as a rule.

    Decreased possessions means you HAVE to play mistake free.. Turn overs will hurt you more in an 8 possession game as opposed to a 12 possession game, because you have less opportunity to overcome them.

    Just as a team with a higher ppd scores more with more possessions, they also LOSE them at a higher rate with decreased possessions.

    Team A= 3pts per drive @ 12 drives ='s 36 points.

    with 8 drives ='s 24 points.

    Team B scores 2.75 points per drive with 12 possessions ='s 33 points

    With 8 possessions ='s 22 points.

    Team B closes the gap with less possessions and any mistake by team A can lose the game.

    The difference in points with 8 possessions is 2 points.  A fg will win the game.  It would not with 12 possessions, as the difference is higher.

    Simply put;

    The Pats scored 17 points on 8 possessions.

    The O lost 2 of those 8 possessions with the T/O's  which gives them 6 possessions  @ 3ppp or 18 points (Small margian of error)  Which is basically what they scored.  So the O lost 6 points by turning the ball over, twice.

    However, the D lost 4 possessions with their inability to get off the field and lost a total of 12 points, 4x's 3, with the decreased possessions.

    SO.......

    17 points  + the 6 pts the O lost with T/O's + 12 points the D lost by decreasing the possessions ='s 35 points,, in a 12 possession game (which is their point per game average)  That is the reason for the decreased points.

    The O would have had to play mistake free in order to win the game (because the gints O did) (NO t/o's and no 3 and outs, THANKS, AGAIN, D!) and there was a differential of only 2 points. 

    In a 12 possession game, not so much.

     



    A B C D ...

     




     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     

     

     

    On average for a 16 game season...


    Team A scores 35 ppg.

    Team B scores 26 ppg

    Team A allows 21 ppg

    team B allows 25 ppg.

    Which team is more likely to score more points while allowing leSS points in a 14 possession game? A 10 possession game? A 4 possession game.

    Hint... Team A is the answer to all 3 questions.? The only factor that changes things is if one half of team A under performs.

    As Bill Belichick just said in Prolates postabove points is the number one determining factor in the outcome of a game.

    Class dismissed, you can go back to cheer leading now. Try not to drop anyone while executing the pyramid Formation.

     



    No. That is completely incorrect. 

    Over a small sample ANY of these teams could score the highest amount of points. You are making a fallacy that an average that is arrived at over 180-200 chances to score will seemlessly translate to a small sample of 8 or 12. 

    At every turn, if you want to realize that advantage you want MORE possessions until that advantage is realized ... then you want to attempt to "cash out."

    An average over the season functions better as a predictive measure the more opportunities given to the team with an advantage. 

    There are literally articles upon articles for coaching and possession/clock management that discuss this phenomenon.

    What you are generally looking for, too, is point differential overall. The team that over a broad sample has a larger point differential should seek to lengthen games ... not shorten them.

    The team with the narrower point differential wants to take the money and run, as it were, and short the game to increase the odds that they can win it. 

    You must not be a gambler, but try it sometime. Sit down with some real pro's or spirited amateurs, win a big hand in your first five, and see what they think about you cashing out on the spot. 

    Ot try it playing pool, if you can muster a win against someone much superior for cash ... see how quickly they want a best out of three.

    They won't like it, because they know a short series (as we say anything can happen) favors the weaker team. 

    I mean this is precisely how NE beat the Rams, only in the inverse. 

    IF you accept that limiting the opponents possessions with a ball control offense somehow "helped" the NE Patriots in 2001, and in general that keeping the opposing offense off the field helps your team, which you have millions of times, you quite literally MUST accept why .... because in those situations NE was not as good and needed to keep the game as short as possible. Why? Because over a larger series of drves, St Louis beats NE. 

    You wany as many possible possessions for your team ... and the least possible possessions for the opponent.

    At the outset of the game, with this team, I want as many chances for the offense to score as is physically possible. In general, BB does as well, considering the team is still a.) heavily pass dominant, and b.) runs more hurry up than any team in the history of the NFL.

    Then when you have a decent lead, you can change gears and start thinking about shortening the game. This is basically what NE has done all season, with a heavily skewed amount of runs coming late in winning games.

    But you don't come out waving a white flag trying to limit the drives from snap one when you have a team that is basically #1 in point differential in most matchups, #1 season to season, through the last four (save the year GB won the SB) and 2007.

    Until you have a lead that matches with the remaining game clock, you want to preserve as many chances as you can.

    As far as running that play goes ... even debating whether Brady should have taken that shot, at an isolated Vereen on a LBer is just insane. You take the shot ... it ends the game. If it doesn't, you still have a big lead and a few downs to work with.

    This was NE taking advantage of a Texans' mistake by the safety to shade to the side of the field that leaves Vereen 1-on-1. Not a designed playcall.

    Finally, again, given that the Texans brought the score to 28 ... those points they scored were necessary. You cannot a.) guarantee another first down, b.) guarantee another score, or c.) guarantee that the Texans won't score. 

    You take the points that make it basically mathematically impossible if they are there for the taking.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    So by pezzys logic we lost the SB because our offense turned the ball over twice.....the mighty cheer leader agrees as he chips in with something from a Michael Jackson song. 

    Case closed then. Love the banter nice back and forth and I'm glad we could finally put this one to bed.



    No. His point is that the offense made very few mistakes, whereas the defense made huge glaring mistakes on every single drive NY had. Not one defensive series was a success. They all amounted to NY either getting a few first downs and running out the clock, or a score. 


    Getting on the offense because it made mistakes on two drives (out of the very few the defense afforded it) is just illogical.

    When one unit fails 100% of the time ... and the other succeeds 75% of the time ... you get mad at the kid who can't do anything right. Pick up your game "D"!!

    So yeah ... glad we could put that to bed.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     

     

     

    On average for a 16 game season...


    Team A scores 35 ppg.

    Team B scores 26 ppg

    Team A allows 21 ppg

    team B allows 25 ppg.

    Which team is more likely to score more points while allowing leSS points in a 14 possession game? A 10 possession game? A 4 possession game.

    Hint... Team A is the answer to all 3 questions.? The only factor that changes things is if one half of team A under performs.

    As Bill Belichick just said in Prolates postabove points is the number one determining factor in the outcome of a game.

    Class dismissed, you can go back to cheer leading now. Try not to drop anyone while executing the pyramid Formation.

     

     



    No. That is completely incorrect. 

     

    Over a small sample ANY of these teams could score the highest amount of points. You are making a fallacy that an average that is arrived at over 180-200 chances to score will seemlessly translate to a small sample of 8 or 12. 

    At every turn, if you want to realize that advantage you want MORE possessions until that advantage is realized ... then you want to attempt to "cash out."

    An average over the season functions better as a predictive measure the more opportunities given to the team with an advantage. 

    There are literally articles upon articles for coaching and possession/clock management that discuss this phenomenon.

    What you are generally looking for, too, is point differential overall. The team that over a broad sample has a larger point differential should seek to lengthen games ... not shorten them.

    The team with the narrower point differential wants to take the money and run, as it were, and short the game to increase the odds that they can win it. 

    You must not be a gambler, but try it sometime. Sit down with some real pro's or spirited amateurs, win a big hand in your first five, and see what they think about you cashing out on the spot. 

    Ot try it playing pool, if you can muster a win against someone much superior for cash ... see how quickly they want a best out of three.

    They won't like it, because they know a short series (as we say anything can happen) favors the weaker team. 

    I mean this is precisely how NE beat the Rams, only in the inverse. 

    IF you accept that limiting the opponents possessions with a ball control offense somehow "helped" the NE Patriots in 2001, and in general that keeping the opposing offense off the field helps your team, which you have millions of times, you quite literally MUST accept why .... because in those situations NE was not as good and needed to keep the game as short as possible. Why? Because over a larger series of drves, St Louis beats NE. 

    You wany as many possible possessions for your team ... and the least possible possessions for the opponent.

    At the outset of the game, with this team, I want as many chances for the offense to score as is physically possible. In general, BB does as well, considering the team is still a.) heavily pass dominant, and b.) runs more hurry up than any team in the history of the NFL.

    Then when you have a decent lead, you can change gears and start thinking about shortening the game. This is basically what NE has done all season, with a heavily skewed amount of runs coming late in winning games.

    But you don't come out waving a white flag trying to limit the drives from snap one when you have a team that is basically #1 in point differential in most matchups, #1 season to season, through the last four (save the year GB won the SB) and 2007.

    Until you have a lead that matches with the remaining game clock, you want to preserve as many chances as you can.

    As far as running that play goes ... even debating whether Brady should have taken that shot, at an isolated Vereen on a LBer is just insane. You take the shot ... it ends the game. If it doesn't, you still have a big lead and a few downs to work with.

    This was NE taking advantage of a Texans' mistake by the safety to shade to the side of the field that leaves Vereen 1-on-1. Not a designed playcall.

    Finally, again, given that the Texans brought the score to 28 ... those points they scored were necessary. You cannot a.) guarantee another first down, b.) guarantee another score, or c.) guarantee that the Texans won't score. 

    You take the points that make it basically mathematically impossible if they are there for the taking.



    E F G ...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    New article find, read it and weep.

    1.) I'm ahead of the curve. Drive stats, according to this sports writer, are the only proper way to look at a contest.

    2.) This is basically slam dunk evidence ... the Giants offense quite simply manhandled the Patriots defense. 

    And what games does it use??? The last two games between NE and NY, specifically because the score tells you nothing about how those two offenses actually performed given that the average NFL game includes 12.4 'real' drives. 

    http://m.nbcsports.com/content/opinion-drive-stats-are-future-nfl-analysis

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    New article find, read it and weep.

    1.) I'm ahead of the curve. Drive stats, according to this sports writer, are the only proper way to look at a contest.

    2.) This is basically slam dunk evidence ... the Giants offense quite simply manhandled the Patriots defense. 

    And what games does it use??? The last two games between NE and NY, specifically because the score tells you nothing about how those two offenses actually performed given that the average NFL game includes 12.4 'real' drives. 

    http://m.nbcsports.com/content/opinion-drive-stats-are-future-nfl-analysis



    Well then it is settled. The giants and their ball control offensive game plan which only worked if their defense held our 35 ppg offense to half of its average actually outperformed our offense. You are so far ahead of the curve on this. Hey what does the "opinion" word mean in the title of that article?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     


    Yes it is.  Time relates to possessions.  The amount of possessions are dictated by the time it takes to complete them.

    1 drive of 8 minutes decreases possessions as 4 drives totaling 8 minutes increases possessions.

    1 drive of 8 minutes means an ineffecient defense while 4 drives totaling 8 minutes indicates an ieffecient D.   They would be on the field more times but are spending no more time than  they would be for the one, 8 minute possession. (assuming those possessions are not quick strike scores for the other team)

    Holding the ball ='s time lost='s possessions lost.

    The only time a defense holding the ball would be a good thing (prevent) is at the end of the game, with a substantial lead.  Then you are using time to kill possessions for the other team.

     



    Feels like we're trying to teach the alphabet to kindergardners.  

     

     

     

    On average for a 16 game season...


    Team A scores 35 ppg.

    Team B scores 26 ppg

    Team A allows 21 ppg

    team B allows 25 ppg.

    Which team is more likely to score more points while allowing leSS points in a 14 possession game? A 10 possession game? A 4 possession game.

    Hint... Team A is the answer to all 3 questions.? The only factor that changes things is if one half of team A under performs.

    As Bill Belichick just said in Prolates postabove points is the number one determining factor in the outcome of a game.

    Class dismissed, you can go back to cheer leading now. Try not to drop anyone while executing the pyramid Formation.

     

     




    Here's what you don't understand.  Points per drive is a better indicator of an O's performance than points per game and possessions x's ppd ='s points.

     

    A team will not score as many points with less possessions as a rule.

    Decreased possessions means you HAVE to play mistake free.. Turn overs will hurt you more in an 8 possession game as opposed to a 12 possession game, because you have less opportunity to overcome them.

    Just as a team with a higher ppd scores more with more possessions, they also LOSE them at a higher rate with decreased possessions.

    Team A= 3pts per drive @ 12 drives ='s 36 points.

    with 8 drives ='s 24 points.

    Team B scores 2.75 points per drive with 12 possessions ='s 33 points

    With 8 possessions ='s 22 points.

    Team B closes the gap with less possessions and any mistake by team A can lose the game.

    The difference in points with 8 possessions is 2 points.  A fg will win the game.  It would not with 12 possessions, as the difference is higher.

    Simply put;

    The Pats scored 17 points on 8 possessions.

    The O lost 2 of those 8 possessions with the T/O's  which gives them 6 possessions  @ 3ppp or 18 points (Small margian of error)  Which is basically what they scored.  So the O lost 6 points by turning the ball over, twice.

    However, the D lost 4 possessions with their inability to get off the field and lost a total of 12 points, 4x's 3, with the decreased possessions.

    SO.......

    17 points  + the 6 pts the O lost with T/O's + 12 points the D lost by decreasing the possessions ='s 35 points,, in a 12 possession game (which is their point per game average)

    The O would have had to play mistake free in order to win the game (because the gints O did) (NO t/o's and no 3 and outs, THANKS, AGAIN, D!) and there was a differential of only 2 points. 

    In a 12 possession game, not so much.




     

    That is the most unbelievable reasoning I have ever heard and is EXACTLY why statisticians and computers do not coach the real thing as well as why the game is not played on paper.

    You would fit right in with the BCS computer that still had Notre Dame ranked #1 AFTER they got their rear end whooped in the National Championship game.

    Oh brother. So it's FACT the pats ONLY lost 6 points in the two turnovers huh? How do you factor in the ofense giving the other team 2 points to start with or quantify giving the other team 2 extra possessions and how that specifically affects the game plan and flow of the game right out of the shoot? Or more importantly how it affects your own defense putting them right back on the field after virtually ZERO rest. 1st offensive possession TOP = ZERO for Pats. How demoralizing is it to go out get a stop give the ball to the offense and then have to go right back on the field trailing by 2 points? How do the stats factor in momentum swings and shifts. Etc etc. Stats are BS.

    Unfair or not every reasonable person expected the offense to play mistake free or near it because thats what they were and the expectation set through their own regular season consitency. The did not and under acheived. It happens and stinks for all of us.

    It is moronic, no not calling you moronic, but moronic for a reasonable person to think the defense would play above its station/level it had set through it's consistently sub par regular season play. They were what we all knew them to be. Weak.

    To top it all off. The Patriots were winning at the half and had more offensive possessions in the 2nd hald than the Giants (5-4) and did less than the Giants did with it. Someone will probably say oh but the last possesion was end of game no time blah blah and I would agree with them but that is exactly what everyone else on here tries to do when to roll out these crazt points per possesion stats when there is no context. It's complete BS.

    The Pats had a 1 point lead at half. Take away the final possession they had in the game and it's still 4 possessions a piece in the 2nd half. All they had to do was tie in the 2nd half and they win. The offense could not match the Giants point for point with the same number of possessions and made it worse by giving one away to the Giants so they may have even had a 4 or 5 to 3 possesion advantage if they did not give one away and took some clock off in the process of getting at least three points out of the posession. Let's ignore all that logic and just look at some funny numbers though. That make more sense. Oh brother.

    In simplest terms its funny how one unit goes into the game maligned and with a bad rep and plays to that reputation and the other unit goes into the game with all the accolades and best play in the game and under performs and yet some still want to blame the unit that had the bad rep to begin with and played to what they were. Will never understand that.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriots. Show themightypatriots's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    H I J K ...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    New article find, read it and weep.

    1.) I'm ahead of the curve. Drive stats, according to this sports writer, are the only proper way to look at a contest.

    2.) This is basically slam dunk evidence ... the Giants offense quite simply manhandled the Patriots defense. 

    And what games does it use??? The last two games between NE and NY, specifically because the score tells you nothing about how those two offenses actually performed given that the average NFL game includes 12.4 'real' drives. 

    http://m.nbcsports.com/content/opinion-drive-stats-are-future-nfl-analysis



    Come on Z get real. WHat does that word say that is at the start of that article link?

    How can I take you seriously lately when you are stats stats stats and you are not a dumb guy so we both know stats are BS and you can make them say anything you want them to say depending on what lens you are looking at them through.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to themightypatriots' comment:

     

    H I J K ... L M N O P

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

     

    In response to wozzy's comment:

     


    Numbers per drive is complete horsesh-t!  

     



    It's really not.  If it wasn't what would be the point of trying to beat great offenses by holding the ball.  It's to give them less opportunities to score because most people realize that how many times you score is related to how many opportunities you get.  Think about it.  If your opponent scored a TD every time they had the ball it wouldn't matter how long you held it.  It is the fact that they don't and you think you can stop them a few times that makes holding the ball valuable.  It isn't the whole story, but to pretend it is irrelevant completely flies in the face of the logic behind why you think we should run the ball.

     

     



    Exactly. Wozzy doesn't seem to get that the argument he made repeatedly last year about the need to hold the ball longer is exactly the same argument that the number of drives matters, just in different words. Given that the game length is fixed at 60 minutes, longer drives mean fewer drives which means fewer scoring chances for your opponent.  

     

     



    Complete and utter BS, the Patriot's offense had just as many possessions to control the clock and do wht the Giant's did to us... they just didn't.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    So by pezzys logic we lost the SB because our offense turned the ball over twice.....the mighty cheer leader agrees as he chips in with something from a Michael Jackson song. 

    Case closed then. Love the banter nice back and forth and I'm glad we could finally put this one to bed.




    Not what I said at all and I have no earthly idea why you would come to that conclusion.

    The Pats O squandered 2 possessions with T/O's and the Pats D squandered 4 by rarely getting of the field and forced ZERO offensive errors.  ZERO!

    The D's time on the field and the inability to force jints errors, killed the O.  KILLED IT!

    You are not scoring points when the D doesn't get the ball back any more than you would with a turn over.   The turn overs wouldn't have hurt as much with more possessions

    You do the math.

    One t/o  or 1, 3 and out by the D would have changed the outcome.

    Those are things they did regularly throught the season WITH their poor rating.

    Doing none of that is a total failure.  What would you say if the O scored ZERO points, got zero 1st downs, were on the field less than half the league average?

    They didn't, they scored on 3/8 drives.  The D failed in one way or the other, excessive 1st downs, no T/O's, no 3 & outs,  excessive QB completion %, ect..ect..ect... on EVERY drive.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

    Let's ignore all that logic and just look at some funny numbers though. That make more sense. Oh brother.

    In simplest terms its funny how one unit goes into the game maligned and with a bad rep and plays to that reputation and the other unit goes into the game with all the accolades and best play in the game and under performs and yet some still want to blame the unit that had the bad rep to begin with and played to what they were. Will never understand that.



    This is a great summation...  

    If you have to look at odd ball statistics to try and make your point chances are you're wrong.  We knew the defense was the weaker of the two units going in, and that the offense would have to score for us to win.  The defense played to their capabilities and kept us in the game, the offense was a complete let down.  Anyone arguing something to the contrary is wrong.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    And if you want to cherry pick Belichick quotes Prolate, the best, most succinct; "points scored, points against and turnovers are the most important stats after wins."

     
  23. This post has been removed.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to bobbysu's comment:

    Especially having a 17-9 lead. Then nothing.




    The best NFL offenses score on average in 37% of their drives.  That means they will NOT score on 63% of their drives.

    The Pats scored on 37% of their drives and NOT on 63% of them.

    The Jints scored on 50% of their drives, since the jints are NOT that much(any) better than the best in the leage, it's logical to blame a Horrendous Defensive break down for the difference.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Baltimore's New Defense.

    In response to bobbysu's comment:

    Especially after having a 17-9 lead. Then nothing.



    Truthfully I think we have the running game and ability to control the clock to pull off a 17-9 victory this year if we have to.  That brings me a sense of comfort...

     

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