BB Fleeces the Vikings!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from patsbandwagonsince76. Show patsbandwagonsince76's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to mia76's comment:

     

    PatsEng - interesting chart - one question on that data - how do they define 'bust'. There is a big difference between a player like Chung - (50 games played 30 starts over his 4 year rookie contract and not resigned by the Pats but signed by another team as a FA to a $3M contract) vs. a Butler who is cut after 2 years (of not insignificant production) but is still playing in the NFL, vs. Ron Brace who is still employed but (Washington) but never was healthy enough to produce meaningful stats or RasI who has never put up any stats in his two years.

    Hard to think Chung would actually be classed a bust except on this board - is he great (No) and did tha Pats move on (Yes), but as NFL players go I think he has a pretty typical career path so far.

    I am not being contentious on this just asking for clarification because I find the chart interesting. Just need to know what the expectation level is for any player in the data set.

     



    Truthfully I'm not sure, they got it from profootball reference so there is some statistics behind it. I'm guessing it's starter vs non starter over length of career. I actually like this breakdown better as it's slightly more defined

     

     




    I like this too.

     

    Says they are mostly right but as we know do not catch nearly every top tier and better player in the first or even second rounds.

    if position 29 is around 35% for good starters, and smoothing out the peaks 20% for top tier. Position 52 and 59 are about 18% for good starters and 8% for top tier...You've just about gotten a break even there that says the two pick are as good as the 29th pick. Add in the 83 and 91 picks and looks like the Patriots made out well and at the same time spread out the risk.

    A good talent scout can skew these numbers more...seems like a skill similar to software engineering..a good coder is 10x as valuable as an average coder...a good scout could be the difference between a year after year SB contender and an average team.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

     

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     



    So, do you think Minnesota is banging down the door right now for a SB title? 

    So, yes, BB preyed on that and pretty much fleeced them. 4 picks for 1?

    The fact they picked Patterson just makes it worse for them.

     



    Classic red herring.

     

    It makes no difference what MN did with the pick.   I couldn't care less about MN.  So, 4 picks for 1 is always a fleece?  Even when the trade value chart shows it to be a wash?  Even when the trade increases risk for the Pats?

    Highly illogical.

     



    How is it a red herring?  This draft is DEEP at WR. They had a hard on for a questionable WR pick.

     

    That means you shouldn't be trading up for a position where it's deep.   It's dumbo logic.

    Barring "Cordarelle" being the next Jerry Rice, which we know he isn't, it's not a good move by them, especially when they just lose their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rd picks! With a 7th. Who was it just the other day who said "if you do your homework, you can nail a WR in the 7th"? Was it Mayock?

    The Rams just did well in Rd 1 and they;ll  do well in this draft because they fleeced the Skins last year for the same reason.  RG3 is coming off a blown out leg at this point and their team will blow in the future because they mortgaged their entire future drafts to help build around RG3.

    Yes.

    Fleeced.

    You only do what Minny just did if you're like a SF or a Seattle, Atlanta, knocking on the door.

    Terrible approach. They were a Rd 1 winner until that panic move.




    You keep bringing up what MN did after the trade.  That's the red herring.  Makes absolutely no difference.  The trade itself is the issue from the Pats standpoint.   If I sell my $20K car to my neighbor for $20K and he sends it off a cliff it doesn't change the fact that the swap was a wash.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    "Fleece".  

    Let me tell you about a fleece I pulled off.   I went to my local bank and got 4 $5's for a $20.  I can't believe it - there was an armed guard right there, witnessed the whole thing and did nothing.

     



    Hi Catfish, 

    I got an even better deal. I traded seven three dollar bills for a twenty and gave em a dollar back to even the trade.

    Hetch 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

     

    "Fleece".  

    Let me tell you about a fleece I pulled off.   I went to my local bank and got 4 $5's for a $20.  I can't believe it - there was an armed guard right there, witnessed the whole thing and did nothing.

     

     



    Hi Catfish, 

     

    I got an even better deal. I traded seven three dollar bills for a twenty and gave em a dollar back to even the trade.

    Hetch 




    Nice!   Everyone goes home happy.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    How come everyone always brings up the Pats picking at the bottom of the round as evidence as to why they cant land stars that far down but when we trade that low pick to get 4 more in the depth rounds 2-3, people keep acting like we passed up a chance to get a bonafide starter?? I mean I dont mind the discussion but why the flip flopping??  You cant have it both ways...Either its a very good trade based on our low pick or you all need to stop making excuses when BB doesnt land pro bowlers at # 29

     

     

    smdh....anything for an argument I guess. I am not saying BB is a genius, but based on who was there, It looks like BB did better,esp considering all the money just paid to Jennings.

    Im just trying to figure out, are we saying Patterson is gonna be better than all four of our draft picks combined this year??

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

    Here is the proper analogy:

    Each person has 1 stock to buy.  

    One person thinks one particular stock exclusively in one industry is the the way to go and doubles down, going all in for that.

    Another wants to buy stronger performing stocks and more of them.

    Which one is better?  I know my answer.

     

     



    Umm, no.  You are trying way to hard to complicate a simple matter.  Your example is irrelevant because the 2 parties are not trading with each other.   You need to judge the trade on its merits with the clock frozen in time, just after the trade is completed but before MN made its selection.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to patsbandwagonsince76's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    In response to mia76's comment:

     

    PatsEng - interesting chart - one question on that data - how do they define 'bust'. There is a big difference between a player like Chung - (50 games played 30 starts over his 4 year rookie contract and not resigned by the Pats but signed by another team as a FA to a $3M contract) vs. a Butler who is cut after 2 years (of not insignificant production) but is still playing in the NFL, vs. Ron Brace who is still employed but (Washington) but never was healthy enough to produce meaningful stats or RasI who has never put up any stats in his two years.

    Hard to think Chung would actually be classed a bust except on this board - is he great (No) and did tha Pats move on (Yes), but as NFL players go I think he has a pretty typical career path so far.

    I am not being contentious on this just asking for clarification because I find the chart interesting. Just need to know what the expectation level is for any player in the data set.

     



    Truthfully I'm not sure, they got it from profootball reference so there is some statistics behind it. I'm guessing it's starter vs non starter over length of career. I actually like this breakdown better as it's slightly more defined

     

     




    I like this too.

     

    Says they are mostly right but as we know do not catch nearly every top tier and better player in the first or even second rounds.

    if position 29 is around 35% for good starters, and smoothing out the peaks 20% for top tier. Position 52 and 59 are about 18% for good starters and 8% for top tier...You've just about gotten a break even there that says the two pick are as good as the 29th pick. Add in the 83 and 91 picks and looks like the Patriots made out well and at the same time spread out the risk.

    A good talent scout can skew these numbers more...seems like a skill similar to software engineering..a good coder is 10x as valuable as an average coder...a good scout could be the difference between a year after year SB contender and an average team.



     We already had the 59th and 90th picks regardless so you can't take that into account when assessing the value of the trade you can only take into account #52, #83, and the 4th (7th too)

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to TripleOG's comment:

    Hey , I dont claim to know all the draft charts and what pics amount to value and what not, but I personally havent seen one pick parlayed into that many good pics the same year before outside of the Ricky Williams deal. ....



    For fun I looked up the Williams trade. Washington ended up with two players out of that deal that were any good. Champ Bailey (they used the first four of the picks they got from New Orleans plus a third rounder of their own to move up five spots in the first round to draft him) and LaVar Arrington. Bailey got out of town as soon as he was able to, and Arrington was good for a few years and then flamed out.  So in the end that trade really didn't do much for either team.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

     

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     



    So, do you think Minnesota is banging down the door right now for a SB title? 

    So, yes, BB preyed on that and pretty much fleeced them. 4 picks for 1?

    The fact they picked Patterson just makes it worse for them.

     



    Classic red herring.

     

    It makes no difference what MN did with the pick.   I couldn't care less about MN.  So, 4 picks for 1 is always a fleece?  Even when the trade value chart shows it to be a wash?  Even when the trade increases risk for the Pats?

    Highly illogical.

     



    How is it a red herring?  This draft is DEEP at WR. They had a hard on for a questionable WR pick.

     

    That means you shouldn't be trading up for a position where it's deep.   It's dumbo logic.

    Barring "Cordarelle" being the next Jerry Rice, which we know he isn't, it's not a good move by them, especially when they just lose their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rd picks! With a 7th. Who was it just the other day who said "if you do your homework, you can nail a WR in the 7th"? Was it Mayock?

    The Rams just did well in Rd 1 and they;ll  do well in this draft because they fleeced the Skins last year for the same reason.  RG3 is coming off a blown out leg at this point and their team will blow in the future because they mortgaged their entire future drafts to help build around RG3.

    Yes.

    Fleeced.

    You only do what Minny just did if you're like a SF or a Seattle, Atlanta, knocking on the door.

    Terrible approach. They were a Rd 1 winner until that panic move.

     




    You keep bringing up what MN did afterthe trade.  That's the red herring.  Makes absolutely no difference.  The trade itself is the issue from the Pats standpoint.   If I sell my $20K car to my neighbor for $20K and he sends it off a cliff it doesn't change the fact that the swap was a wash.

     


    Of course you are corrrect and Rusty wrong. The trade wasnt 4 lower picks for Patterson. It was 4 lower picks for 29. The trade was even and it remains to be seen who pans out. The Pats assumed more risk but get more swings (choices)

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    As I mentioned in another post. I thought the Jets got 2 impact players that will contribute in a big way for 4-5 years. 

    I wanted Richardson for ghe Pats DL. 

    Jets go Kelce, OL and come out of the draft with 4 players every Sunday

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: BB Fleeces the Vikings!

    In response to TripleOG's comment:

    BB aint no Joke! Went in with not enough pics, came out the 1st round with possible too many picks now. Turned 1 into 4 and ALL this year but I still see BB taking one of the pics and trading out to next year because now we have 5 legit picks and they may not like that many players. I thought that was way too much to give up for Patterson who only had one good year and that was only 46 catches but considered a breakout because he wasnt expected to do much. He was ju-co the year before. He is very explosive but immature and not that good at picking up schemes. I wouldve liked Hopkins but not Patterson so BB moved out and may have a chance at the 2nd tier of WR's who I really like.

    Feel bad for Geno Smith. They need to stop hyping up these guys and setting them up for failure.

    I believe we can really come out this draft looking good now. We can target CB, WR, S, DE, OL and most likely draft another project WR in the 7th for practice squad. No need to trade Mallet right away now as well. S*cks not seeing a pic last night but tonight will be much better. Lets just hope they make the right pics. Well Done BB.



    lets wait tillt he hay is in the barn to celebrate triple  :)

     
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