In response to PatsEng's comment:
In response to mia76's comment:
PatsEng - interesting chart - one question on that data - how do they define 'bust'. There is a big difference between a player like Chung - (50 games played 30 starts over his 4 year rookie contract and not resigned by the Pats but signed by another team as a FA to a $3M contract) vs. a Butler who is cut after 2 years (of not insignificant production) but is still playing in the NFL, vs. Ron Brace who is still employed but (Washington) but never was healthy enough to produce meaningful stats or RasI who has never put up any stats in his two years.
Hard to think Chung would actually be classed a bust except on this board - is he great (No) and did tha Pats move on (Yes), but as NFL players go I think he has a pretty typical career path so far.
I am not being contentious on this just asking for clarification because I find the chart interesting. Just need to know what the expectation level is for any player in the data set.
Truthfully I'm not sure, they got it from profootball reference so there is some statistics behind it. I'm guessing it's starter vs non starter over length of career. I actually like this breakdown better as it's slightly more defined
I like this too.
Says they are mostly right but as we know do not catch nearly every top tier and better player in the first or even second rounds.
if position 29 is around 35% for good starters, and smoothing out the peaks 20% for top tier. Position 52 and 59 are about 18% for good starters and 8% for top tier...You've just about gotten a break even there that says the two pick are as good as the 29th pick. Add in the 83 and 91 picks and looks like the Patriots made out well and at the same time spread out the risk.
A good talent scout can skew these numbers more...seems like a skill similar to software engineering..a good coder is 10x as valuable as an average coder...a good scout could be the difference between a year after year SB contender and an average team.