Belichick Is Not Irrational

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mike-J-D. Show Mike-J-D's posts

    Belichick Is Not Irrational

    I'm not nearly as deep into the draft as everyone else.  Most of these college players, I've never seen play so I am not going to pretend to eval them off of a youtube clip or two, but that's just me. 


    Anyway, for those of you who are interested, here's an article that looks at the draft from a more economic perspective.  Belichick is never mentioned but using this as a guideline, BB is one rational SOB.  Enjoy:  http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally" rel="nofollow">http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally


     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Belichick Is Not Irrational

    I read that yesterday and while I think that trading down gets panned too much in general I don't think the academics that write those papers make a particularly compelling argument.  First of all it is practically impossible to come up with a quantitative metric for comparing players that doesn't have issues.  In baseball (an individual sport) there is still a ton of debate about WAR let alone in football.  More importantly it is silly to look at the average value of a draft position when the variance is so high.  The most extreme example of course is the 199th pick which is full of JAGs and Tom Brady.  Finally looking at players in a vacuum regardless of position is a bit misguided.  For example we all agree that a good QB is far more valuable than a good running back so maybe it is worth the risk to trade up for a QB (particularly since bust rates are different across different positions at different points in the draft).


    To reiterate I think trading down is probably a better strategy than most people think, but most of these academic analyses make some simplifying assumptions that make it hard to believe the grand claims of their conclusions.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Belichick Is Not Irrational

    In response to Mike-J-D's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    I'm not nearly as deep into the draft as everyone else.  Most of these college players, I've never seen play so I am not going to pretend to eval them off of a youtube clip or two, but that's just me. 


     


    Anyway, for those of you who are interested, here's an article that looks at the draft from a more economic perspective.  Belichick is never mentioned but using this as a guideline, BB is one rational SOB.  Enjoy:  http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally" rel="nofollow">http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally" rel="nofollow">http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally


     


     


    [/QUOTE]

    who ever said Belleichick was "irrational"?


    ruthless, tight with a buck (Kraft?) and egomaniacal ok but not irrational


    CAN YOU SALSA LIKE VICTOR?


     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Belichick Is Not Irrational

    In response to Mike-J-D's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    I'm not nearly as deep into the draft as everyone else.  Most of these college players, I've never seen play so I am not going to pretend to eval them off of a youtube clip or two, but that's just me. 


     


    Anyway, for those of you who are interested, here's an article that looks at the draft from a more economic perspective.  Belichick is never mentioned but using this as a guideline, BB is one rational SOB.  Enjoy:  http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally" rel="nofollow">http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally" rel="nofollow">http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally


     


     


    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]


    The problem being that with that minimal (and less face it we spend more on vets that get cut in camp then the difference between a 1st and a 2nd with a 3rd round pick) savings you are adding the risk of not getting a productive player vs getting one. BB has a great track record of 1st round picks and is pretty good at picking with his own 2nd round pick but he misses a lot (more than the rest of the league) with almost every other 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder. The data bares that out. So, while in a vacuum you save money by taking a 2nd and 3rd over a 1st in truth they are assets and if those assets never pay off (see T. Wilson) you wasted that money. So unless those two players end up more productive in the end than the 1st round player putting a purely financial look at a sport with an artificial cap to begin with doesn't work. Btw, moneyball doesn't work in baseball either, see the A's. Games are won by players not by how much you save on said players. 

     
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