Re: Belichick was RIGHT... Here are the FACTS!
posted at 11/16/2009 7:56 PM EST
In Response to Re: Belichick was RIGHT... Here are the FACTS!
(...)Are you saying that making a first down in this situation gives them a 78.8% chance of winning? If the above is true, then you need to first make the first down which is already defined as a 66.27% chance. But the events are not mutually exclusive. You need to attempt the first down in order to get the 78.8% chance to win. In this case, you need to multiply the odds together: 66.27% by 78.8% gives you a probability of 52.2 % chance (...)
Posted by EnochRoot
Hi there, i'll try to clarify a little:
The number-crunchers take the following odds:
1) odds of "a team" coming back 70 yds to win ... they state those at 30%
2) odds of getting the 2 yds for a first down (60%)
3) odds of stopping "a team" after failing to convert (47%)
So the 79% is 'the sum of' 60% + 40%x47%
Wich means that statistically the choice is sound. You can argue that (3) is in fact lower because the team in front of you is not "any" team, but then (1) gets higher too. In the end 1 out of 4 times you lose by going for it, 1 out of 3 times you lose by punting.BUT
that's just the numbers and they don't account for the dynamics of that particular game, also BB (and the players) are better at that than us: they are there.SO
I feel i can't critizice the choice of going for it and
i understand that once they decided they were going for it then they had to pass: on the last series they were getting negative yardage on the run plays, you have to think that you can convert one out of two passes for two yds.
in my humble opinion this just stresses the fact that the team desperately needs a running back that the can trust to get ONE yd/play!!!
, because on third and two you run, they are forced to take their last timeout and now you are not thinking about giving PM two minutes, one time out, plus the warning against a tired defense; but simply 110 secs and no timeouts.
It has been said this choice meant BB didnt trust the defense. The numbers point me to believe that BB deeply and strongly believes that the team has no running game at all.
But we already knew that.