Re: Belichick whiffs in the 3rd again...
posted at 8/8/2013 4:39 PM EDT
In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
Third rounders have mixed success. Some end up good players, but the majority end up as roster filler. To judge BB's success with third rounders, you'd have to look at all his picks, calculate the percentage that ended up being good players and then compare that to the percentage of third round picks overall who turned out to be good players. That's a heck of a lot more work than I'm willing to do right now, but if someone wants to give it a shot, it would be a great contribution to the board. My guess is that BB's success in the third round is probably about average. But it's just a guess because I haven't done the research required to make a truly informed judgment.
It is not mixed and it is far below average.
I'm going through all the posts and I will try to respond to all of them. I stand by my statement. DBs give themselves away from the very beginning, for good or ill. It's simple, cover your man! DBs who struggle in this area will likely struggle in the future. If you can't cover UDFA WRs, you can't expect to hold your own on an island in real games. Harmon was a horrible reach who could have been had in rounds 5-7.
The Pats have a dire need for developmental QBs. There were 3 QBs that had at least 27 career starts and at least a 60% completion % that were available in the 3rd. Commissar Goodell had made Wonderlic scores verboten to the public.
Another QB with 26 career stats could be included on this list.
I'm going to criticize Brady here, so a warning for you sensitive people not read further.
Brady's performance in his playoff losses since the 2005 season:
01/14/2006 @Denver - 20/36 Comp: 55.6% Rate: 74.0 TD/INT: 1/2 PFF Grade: N/A
NOTE: the game turned when Brady, down 10-6, threw a red zone pick 6. Instead of a 10-9 score, Brady put his team in a 17-6 hole they couldn't get out from. In retrospect, the Dynasty ends here.
01/21/2007 @Indianapolis - 21/34 Comp: 61.8% Rate: 79.5 TD/INT: 1/1 PFF Grade: N/A
NOTE: Brady ends the game with a pick to safety Marlin Jackson.
02/03/2008 vs NY Giants - 29/48 Comp: 60.4% Rate: 82.5 TD/INT: 1/0 PFF Grade: N/A
NOTE: Brady was rattled by Giants pressure all night long.
01/10/2010 Baltimore - 23/42 Comp: 54.8% Rate: 49.1 TD/INT: 2/3 PFF Grade: -5.3
NOTE: No excuses for this performance.
01/16/2011 NY Jets - 29/45 Comp: 64.4% Rate: 89.0 TD/INT: 2/1 PFF Grade: -0.7
NOTE: Brady throws a pick, killing a drive in the 1stQ when his team was deep in Jets territory, setting the tone for the game.
02/05/2012 vs NY Giants - 27/41 Comp: 65.9% Rate: 91.1 TD/INT: 2/1 PFF Grade: 0.2
NOTE: Brady, in his own end zone, throws the ball away to avoid a sack, resulting in a safety. In the 4thQ and the Pats protecting a 17-15 lead, with his team at midfield and 1-10, Brady underthrows Gronk and gets picked off. The result, the Giants didn't score but moved the ball midfield to pin the Pats deep in their own zone. In the AFCCG win over the Ravens, the Pats won that game in spite of Brady who uttered "I sucked..." after the game. Eli's PFF Grade: +8.2 (Proof positive that PFF sucks and is biased against Brady and the Pats.)
01/20/2012 Baltimore - 29/54 Comp: 53.7% Rate: 62.3 TD/INT: 1/2 PFF Grade: -0.6
Of his 56 dropbacks, Brady was under pressure 17 times. The results: 1 INT and a 13.0 Rating. Can't blame the O-line. This one's on Tom.
So, why do I bring this up? After last season, it became painfully obvious that Brady is no longer effective against good teams, he's 36, and his backups don't look promising. Tebow has mechanical flaws and history isn't kind to Mallett (one would be hard pressed to find a successful NFL QB with a 57.8% NCAA comp). The QB class was very strong in the 3-4 rounds. BB the GM completely blew it because BB the coach fell in love with Rutgers defensive backs and wasted an opportunity to get a more promising QB prospect or two. This is a QB-driven league after all. Remember this when Ryan is giving up move-the-chains completions and Harmon is hustling on special teams.