In Response to Re: BJE Signs with the Bengles
In Response to Re: BJE Signs with the Bengles : zbellino , I'm not sure I fully understand... I was simply offering you the things which actually DID occur, right? I was responding to the notion that: BJGE will be easily & undoubtedly replaced very easily, by the acquiring of either a Vet Runningback OR a Mid-Late Round Runningback, Or Both. I'm not sure I understand, because I offered the same examples of 1 NE Runningback who had been a highly regarded vet runningback (although aged...but are we now changing the criteria to- "Young unheralded vet, who's cheap as well as a proven product"). And 2nd, I offered A 1st Round Draft Selected Runningback who himself, Didn't perform as well as BJGE did when upon Ellis being offered the same starting opportunity... So, I don't get it... Are you saying that the tea leaves in front of you, have divined that: "NE WILL get a better or equal starting caliber runningback, whom is a fitting match in NE's system of Offense and fits well within the numerous contingents regarding the usages of their runners. AND, the very same tea leaves you're currently scrying, tell you that this currently unsigned, and even unnamed runningback WILL stay healthy...just the same as he won't fumble, and he won't play soft, or suddenly start playing soft." Really, I'm just offering facts and events which actually occured zbellino, in direct response to yours and others responses that a player of BJGE's quality OR Better, is an absolute certainty to be guarentted that NE will get...without problem...cheaper too. Sooo, It's sorta confusing to me, when you sweep these actually occured scenarios in recent years, back to my corner, in some form of elliptical rhetoric, purporting that I somehow expressed the notion that: Finding BJGE's replacement, CAN NEVER Occur...?
Posted by LazarusintheSanatorium
Actually ... I didn't see a fact. I saw ... well, rhetoric. Your post about BJGE's replacement ... "Maroney It IS!!!!"
The implacation is crystal clear Laz. That Maroney is the type of guy out there, and everyone else is like Maroney. You are using it to make a point about BJGE's irreplacability.
I don't think you believe he is irreplaceable. You are way too smart for that. But at the same time, you tried to make it appear is if it were, by presenting that false dilemma, BJGE or Maroney. Unless BB actually does hire Maroney, then you are trying to convince or persuade people (a.k.a., being rhetorical) that the things they would like to be improved over BJGE are the things that make a Maroney type back.
So please don't pull the humble ... "I present facts good jury, while my opponent seeks to wile you with sonorous juridical flourishes that are, ultimately ... empty and vain in the face of my honest and plain spoken truths (plural)."
Saying BJGE is more or less replaceable, is far, far less rhetorical than saying that replacing him equals signing on to four more years of Maroney. It uses less persuasive language, and is a more clear cut statement of evaluation and opinion, without all sorts of compromised comparisons to weed through.
Saying that BJGE had a 3.7 ypc (which I didn't do) is far less rhetorical, than bringing up context without even mentioning what that context is, outside of vague gestures toward situations and usage.
I'm only saying that is really just a feeble argument for BJGE, based on persuasive language and not fact. That his predecessor also wasn't anything great has nothing to do with the facility with which NE can replace him. It's a non-fact posted to make a point (i.e., a rhetorical measure) that has no bearing on what is in the field now, and on the roster now to replace BJGE.
Adn you know that very well. Mentioning Maroney is a total non-sequitur, where replacing BJGE is concerned. Mention some of the guys that would be real options here, Bush, Starks, Benson, or maybe just using Ridley. Or maybe using a draft pick again? Who knows? Well, we know one thing ... Maroney isn't part of the discussion.
As is (I would add) a weak gesture toward the "context" of his 3.7 ypg. The context of BJGE's performance is always affected as is anyone else's. Contextually, only a few running backs, those of the Saints and Packers, have had anything close to the advantages that BJGE has had the last few seasons. Moreover, the #1 short yardage back on NE's roster is Tom Brady, with 43 carries. BJGE isn't coming in to plug away in short yardage. He was the prime back, who got the meat of the carries. So context doesn't really help the guy's case at 3.7 ypg.
As far as absolute statistical context, Ne's offensive line averages about 4.5s ypc blocked, and their RB's about 4.17 (footballoutsiders). They and the Jets are the only two teams in the top ten OLs whose RBs are leaving blocked yardage on the field. As the back with the most carries, and lowest YPC, Benny is a huge part of that. He never does anything at the second level. That puts some context, for me, on his 3.7. The biggest reason he has 3.7-4 his whole career is because he is not good enough to exploit the defense for himself.
Secondly, I never said: "NE WILL get a better or equal starting caliber runningback, whom is a fitting match in NE's system of Offense and fits well within the numerous contingents regarding the usages of their runners. AND, the very same tea leaves you're currently scrying, tell you that this currently unsigned, and even unnamed runningback WILL stay healthy...just the same as he won't fumble, and he won't play soft, or suddenly start playing soft."
That's what you are saying I said. There is a difference. For one, I never said will ..... I have said can, which expresses contingency, and a willingness to assume the risk (for my part as a fan, lol) that it is likely they could.
But let's pick apart the words you've said I said, and because I consider you a friend, I'll actually say what I think on those accounts.
1.) There is no guarantee that BJGE would stay healthy. As a matter of fact, he did not this season. RB's get injured. Re-signing BJGE is as much a leap on that front as it is with most other backs in the field, I think discluding Grant, who is coming off a major injury IIRC, though he did pony up 15 games last season. None in the field are injury prone, and neither is Ridley. You assume the same risk around the horn basically.
2.) There is no reason to think that the "contingents" of the RB stable will stay the same in BJGE's absence. Most notably, if they found a more versatile runner, perhaps those contingents could change somewhat dramatically. Also, if the contingents of the stable fitting around what BJGE did here are the ultimate goal, then no one can ever replace him because no one is identical. Finally, this makes an assumption that the contingents of NE's backfield were something BB and company were happy with from the get go. And that they are immediately shopping for someone to fill Benny's role. Perhaps they wanted a back with more versatility, or maybe they thought there was too much duplication between Ridley and BJGE, and that BJGE could be replaced with a real short yardage/FB hybrid that is closer to 240 lbs? I don't know. My guess is they wanted something different (or better, or similar and more cost effective), either on the roster or off? So then the contingents are ultimately bound to change regardless.
3.) I never said NE would get "cheaper" but that investing in a RB in this remaining market, I see +'s and -'s to Bush and BJGE and the remainder, and that NE is really clearing way for a replacement that is either currently on the roster (thus being cheaper or equal) or they are not thinking "cheap" at all, and are willing to extend themselves for a more costly, but also more talented improvement. Perhaps via trade or draft, if that is their tack? Not sure, but I see the value in trying to improve the roster spot.
4.) RE: Toughness ... most RBs are tough. And I wouldnt' even consider BJGE the "toughest" on the roster. Woodhead runs harder with smaller body mass, and fights harder for extra yards, in my opinion. Not that BJGE isn't tough, but I've seen both Welker and Woodhead push and pull harder with less. Ridley is plenty tough, and never shies from contact. Because Maroney was injured all the time doesn't mean anything regarding the other guys' skills or abilities. And toughness itself is cheaply bought -- it's a prime attribute of people playing for contracts and their future. They lay it on the line. Bush is known for hard nosed running, as are Starks, and Benson. Furthermore, any of the four could "suddenly turn soft." BJGE included in the four.
5.) I'll be blunt about this. BJGE as starting caliber is a stretch IMO. If he is, he's at the bottom of that group. He is a platoon caliber, which is why he's always platooned, and following the one year he did not, they added extra RBs. In a pinch he can start, but really if I were GM I would want more from my starting back, re; the ability to stretch the defense out or punish defenders with sheer power, and recieve passes. More speed or power, and more versatility. If it comes down to pure running ability, I mean just how well they threaten a defense, I would put BJGE beneath everyone else in the field. He has the least long runs in the group. And the third lowest YPC, despite playing on an offense that leaves him some large ungaurded seams to work in.
But I never said these as facts, merely opinions and speculations.
I could easily flip it around and make your claim about value into a prediction. Your assertion then, is that they resign BJGE. He stays healthy, unlike last season. He never fumbles. Doesn't miraculolusly turn "soft." And every running back he could have been replaced with goes for more money and does less -- or is like Maroney, i.e, fumbles, a bunch, turns soft, etc. OR, that the running back stable is through now that he is gone.
Hence, my "tea leaves" are just a prediction, like yours or anyone else's. They are not a "practical guarantee," so please don't "strawman" me. If NE released Markel Carter, and I said, "there are plenty of practice squad players out there," it's not a guarantee that Markel Carter can be replaced with Murkel Corter, his clone and equal except cheaper.
My guess is based on what I see from BJGE and what I've seen from the field. I.E., he is replacable more or less by a combination of what's on the roster and in the "field" of free agency. There was no reason to top someone else's offer because he is more or less replaceable.
The way I see it, there are only two real bellweathers right now about his "replaceability": first, the market reaction, which was tepid, and the Patriots' reaction, which was outright cold.
The final test is how well NE runs the ball in his absence, or with his replacement -- which no one really knows.
As far as real replacability, I think NE will likely stick with Ridley until/unless Vereen shows something. They will probably pick up a vet for cheap as well, because they need to replace the roster spot and reps.
In the end, I think there will be a "push" as far as production. No one is going to have the exact same skill-set as BJGE, which is essentially ball security and plunging forward and only forward. But there are other guys who can fill in.
Maybe someone they grab fumbles the ball once or twice, but fills in by actually breaking a run every now and then, even into the face of a nickel defense that is napping on the run because of all the passing talent out there?
So talking about replacability. Let's compare another platoon runner like Michael Bush. They'll probably get even (more or less) salaries.
G Att Yards Avg Lg TD FMB
Bush 61 632 2,642 4.2 67 21 3
BJGE 53 510 2,064 4.0 33 29 0
They are both very secure runners, who don't drop the bal. Even though BJGE has yet to fumble, Bush rarely fumbles. BJGE will eventually fumble, but I would put them really even as safety backs, a slight edge to BJGE born out by anomaly as opposed to skill. Heck, Maroney had 1 fumble his first 450 odd carries, until he fumbled 4 times in his next 125 odd carries. Bush also has more threat to take it deep. Bush has 15 runs longer than 20 yards. BJGE 4 runs longer than 20 yards -- none last season. Yes, BJGE has more TDs, but that is really a product of being on a much more proficient offense. Really, all of Bush's stats would likely improve here, if given the same context (you love this word when it defends BJGE in this thread) of defense in front of Brady, Welker, Gronk, and Hern. Is he anything special? No. but he'll likely come cheaper as the market winds on, and more or less would fill in for a guy who wasn't anything special either.
Is Bush exactly like BJGE? Nope. But is he the same class? Sure. Stevan Ridley could shatter his ankle getting out of his Escalade next season. BJGE could get another rash of turf toe. Who knows?
As none of these characters are standout backs ... it will be about the same value overall.
I would lump Cedric Benson and Ryan Grant into that class as well. None of them would be costly, they all have plusses and minuses. All of them could broadly do what BJGE has done here in my estimation. Be part of a platoon.
There is give and there is take. In the end, BJGE is replacable for me because it comes out in the wash. I don't think he is special. The NFL doesn't think he is special. NE, obivously, didn't think he was very special.
Maybe he becomes dominant and proves me wrong? I hope the best for him, I always thought he was always a classy, team first guy and a tough runner. I just never thought he was a running back that was irreplacable or even particularly difficult to replace from a straight skills prespective.
You think otherwise to some degree, and you are entitled to that. But save the rhetoric, which is oh, so thick, for another time. Losing BJGE doesn't = gaining Maroney. People aren't looking for Maroney. They are looking for something different than Maroney AND BJGE. Somone better than both of them hopefully, or at least equal to the best you got out of them for the same price .... and I like a few others here, think that is a very, very realistic proposition.