Brady In Decline?

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from danemcmenamin. Show danemcmenamin's posts

    Re: Brady In Decline?

    You hear what you like man, I thought ESPN had an anti Pats bias? Do you want a medal or something or a prize or everyone on this board to congratulate you individually? 

    You've realised a 35 year old QB isn't as good as he was when he was 30. At the same time you've pretty much taken all the blame off Brady for the loss. He's a player in decline so like in 01 we once again have to rally around him to win the championship. The broncos did it with Elway and other than him has there ever been and 34-35 year old QB in the history of the NFL with as much exceptation on his shoulders...would you call that fair?

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    Tom Brady's decline has begun QB can no longer cover Pats' weaknesses, signaling end to dynasty Originally Published: January 24, 2013 By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider Tom Brady Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesTom Brady doesn't look like the elite quarterback he used to be.

    One of the uncomfortable truths about quarterbacks headed into their late 30s is that the cliff of performance decline can seemingly come out of nowhere in a relatively short amount of time.

    Dan Fouts led the league in yards per attempt (YPA) at age 34 then only two years later had the second lowest YPA mark of his career. He called it quits after that season.

    Dan Marino led the league in net yards per attempt when he was 35 years old. In each of the next three seasons, he failed to top the 7-yard YPA mark, a statistical feat that happened to him only once prior to 1996.

    Fran Tarkenton led the league in touchdown passes and passer rating in 1975 at the age of 35. Two years later, his numbers saw a significant decrease and that drop-off culminated in a 1978 schedule that saw Tarkenton throw 32 interceptions and rank 25th in passer rating on his way to graduating into a broadcasting career.

    These are but three of a large number of potential examples that illustrate just how unforgiving Father Time can be at that stage of a quarterback's life.

    As painful as it is to say this, after a detailed review of the 2012 New England Patriots season, it looks like Tom Brady, who will turn 36 prior to the 2013 season, will very soon serve as another example of this type of dramatic decline.

    At first glance, this might not look to be the case. After all, Brady ranked second in the league in Total QBR, fourth in passing yards and touchdown passes and was tied for first in interception percentage.

    Good as those figures are, they belie some disturbing trends. Brady's YPA (7.6) and completion percentage (63.0) were his lowest since 2006 and his touchdown percentage (5.3) was his lowest since 2009.

    He also showed a significant statistical drop down the stretch, as his December numbers in YPA (7.0), completion percentage (58.5) and touchdown to interception ratio (10-to-5) were the worst monthly totals of his 2012 season.

    It isn't just the numbers where Brady started to show some regression.

    He looked painfully slow in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. This was especially evident on a fourth-and-4 play in the fourth quarter when it looked like Brady had plenty of room to scramble for a first down inside the Ravens' 15-yard line. Instead, he ran sideways, looked behind him to see if anyone was closing in and eventually chucked the ball well short of his receiver in the end zone.

    That play was but one of many errors Brady made, and those errors led to the first NFL home loss he has ever suffered after leading at the half.

    This wasn't the only game where his weaknesses were brought to the fore.

    [+] EnlargeTom Brady, Bill Belichick AP Photo/Tom DiPaceWithout Brady to mask the Pats' blemishes, New England will face new challenges.

    The book on Brady since the Patriots lost to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII is that a strong pass rush can rattle him. Baltimore certainly achieved this in the aforementioned game (it's why Brady was looking behind him as he scrambled and was almost certainly a factor in his raising his leg to protect himself as Ed Reed closed for a possible big hit), and that same flaw showed up in the Patriots' Week 15 game against San Francisco.

    The 49ers looked to have adopted the old Al Davis adage of hitting the quarterback hard early in the game, and achieved it when Aldon Smith smashed into Brady early in the first quarter. That blow set a tone as the Niners' pass rush kept Brady on his heels for most of the game. And it is worth noting that the New England offense really did not get on track until Justin Smith suffered an injured triceps, which considerably slowed the San Francisco pass rush.

    All of the above issues could be enough to hinder Brady's future, but the biggest of his woes may very well be a significant decline in accuracy. His tremendous attention to detail in practicing the proper passing mechanics has led to Brady being, by far, the most accurate passer I've seen in 10 seasons of breaking down game tapes. But that trend took a big step back this past season, as Brady's accuracy was well below its norm.

    This led to a tremendous number of missed completions (46 by my tracking sheets) and additionally caused a large number of completions to potentially fall short of their yards-after-catch upside because the receiver had to adjust to a pass that wasn't thrown to the proper spot.

    Brady is still so far ahead of most other quarterbacks that, even with a drop-off in his performance, he will likely be a top-tier passer for the next two to three seasons.

    The issue for New England is that any level of decline in his play could reduce his effectiveness in mitigating a multitude of this team's personnel issues.

    These roster limitations start on defense. According to ESPN Stats & Information, New England ranked 21st in Total QBR allowed, 25th in yards per game allowed, 24th in yards per play allowed, 29th in pass yards per game allowed, 28th in net yards per attempt allowed, 21st in sack percentage and 25th in first downs allowed per game.

    The offense has a pair of 31-year old wide receivers, one of whom was something of a disappointment in 2012 (Brandon Lloyd), and another of whom (Wes Welker) is a free agent whose future with the team is dependent upon New England coming up with a either a long-term contract or ponying up $11.4 million by placing a franchise tag on him.

    Compounding these issues is the fact that the Patriots don't have much in the way of draft pick volume in the years ahead.

    There is good news in that this year's draft is stocked with very good depth in the defensive line and safety positions, so the Patriots ought to be able to make the most of their relatively few selections.

    In addition, it should be noted that New England does have a solid collection of young talent to go along with a projected $18.6 million in cap space, a total that ties the Patriots for eighth-most in that category.

    Having noted those factors, it is still unavoidable that the Patriots are in a conference that has probably reached its won-loss nadir. This past season, the AFC had seven teams finish with six or fewer wins. By contrast, the NFC had only three teams end the season with a victory total in that range.

    When the development of those bottom-tier AFC teams is combined with the improvements likely to occur among the AFC playoff teams, the Patriots' path to the conference title game in the near future is not going to be as smooth as it has sometimes been in the past.

    Add it all up, and it could mean the world saw the end of the New England dynasty (and Brady's championship chances) in that title game loss to the Ravens.

     

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    I don't really read much into these kinds of articles.  People have been talking about Brady's decline for the past few years.  Until it actually happens I think it's a load of  hogwash.  To me this article is highly misleading because it claims this:

    "Brady is still so far ahead of most other quarterbacks that, even with a drop-off in his performance, he will likely be a top-tier passer for the next two to three seasons."

    When they talk about decline for the other QBs mentioned they are referring to them sucking and having to retire.  This article is simply saying he will still be elite, but not as good as he was a few years ago.  That is a highly misleading use of the word decline in the context of athletes imo.

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    Also the stats they use at the beginning are stupid.  TD % is kind of a dumb thing to argue about when the Patriots just ran more plays than any other team by a large margin and they had the highest scoring offense in the NFL yet again.  What about the fact that his INT% was the 2nd best of his career?

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    In response to MattC05's comment:

    Add it all up, and it could mean the world saw the end of the New England dynasty (and Brady's championship chances) in that title game loss to the Ravens.

     



    I disagree with this statement.  I think as long as BB is coaching and TFB is part of the team they will always be in the mix of things and have a shot at a Championship.  But BB needs to make some philisophical changes and I think he will.  The Patriots will be in the playoffs again next season and be favored to win once again.  We hear this talk from the media the last several years yet the point spread and SB odds surely don't show agree with them. 

    Is Brady in decline, probably but he isn't in his prime anymore, he is getting older and that happens to everyone in all sports.  Should his greatness be judged due to getting older?  Na, that's not really fair.  He is still very, very good. But he needs some help from the team.  He can't carry the team on his shoulders by himself now, BB give him some help and show all these jealous writers just how wrong they are.

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    Well I wouldn't say he's entering his prime.  But PCM nailed it...

    "Brady is still so far ahead of most other quarterbacks that, even with a drop-off in his performance, he will likely be a top-tier passer for the next two to three seasons."

    This really says it all.  When you look at positions the Pats need to upgrade I believe QB is last. 

    Now go sign Talib, Vollmer and get a pass-rusher... Freeney?  Then see if Wes is willing to play for 6.5 a year.  Hopefully Wes talks to Deion about taking a better deal somewhere else. 

    Considering Ballard is going to play, Demps will boost out KO returns, Edleman helps in punts and as a 4th WR, the signing of a hopeful armstead... the Pats are already a better team next year. 

    They should be ready for another playoff run. 

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    Bottom line from the article...

    "Brady is still so far ahead of most other quarterbacks that, even with a drop-off in his performance, he will likely be a top-tier passer for the next two to three seasons."

     

    Learn the game junior.

     

    Mediocre team + Brady = close but no cigar.

    Mediocre team + no Brady = just another team.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: Brady In Decline?

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    The stats seem to show it.   It's painful to admit it, but once you concede this fact where we've now seen it so much in the postseason in recent years, it's easier for your expectations with our offense and its capability.

    I don't have ESPN Insider, but if anyone does maybe they can post the entire piece:

     

    Is Brady a quarterback in decline? January, 24, 2013 Jan 24 4:59 PM ET By ESPNBoston.com In an ESPN.com Insider piece that probably isn't going to be popular with Patriots fans, KC Joyner writes that both the numbers and anecdotal evidence point to Tom Brady as a quarterback in decline. Here is an excerpt:

    SportsNation

    Are Tom Brady's best days behind him?

    •   58% Yes
    •   42% No

    Discuss (Total votes: 5,444)

    At first glance, this might not look to be the case. After all, Brady ranked second in the league in Total QBR, fourth in passing yards and touchdown passes and was tied for first in interception percentage.

    Good as those figures are, they belie some disturbing trends. Brady's yards per attempt (7.6) and completion percentage (63.0) were his lowest since 2006 and his touchdown percentage (5.3) was his lowest since 2009.

    He also showed a significant statistical drop down the stretch, as his December numbers in YPA (7.0), completion percentage (58.5) and touchdown to interception ratio (10-to-5) were the worst monthly totals of his 2012 season.

    It isn't just the numbers where Brady started to show some regression.

    He looked painfully slow in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. This was especially evident on a fourth-and-4 play in the fourth quarter when it looked like Brady had plenty of room to scramble for a first down inside the Ravens' 15-yard line. Instead, he ran sideways, looked behind him to see if anyone was closing in and eventually chucked the ball well short of his receiver in the end zone.




     

    If u can get ONE person outside of BSPN to agree with you, I'll give it some thought....

     

    Oh and let me know the last time Brady outran someone. Its never been his game. Should I go pull out his combine performance. It would make Rich Eisen look fast,...LMAO

     

    NIce try but you have Failed again and you say I try to persuade people??  Stop with your agenda. I think everyone knows already how you feel. Twice a year you find one article that supports your agenda. The rest of the year, you have nothing..

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dapats1281. Show dapats1281's posts

    Re: Brady In Decline?

    I noticed the decline in accuracy too. In his last 5 games, he hasnt had one game in which he's thrown for higher than 70% of his passes.

    Comparatively, Peyton had 3 in his last 5

    Ryan had 2

    Rodgers had 3

    Drew Brees has 0, but he had a 69.8 and other games where he was much higher than Brady.

     

    Considering the style of offense the Pats run, and the opponents they faced in that stretch, it's surprisingly low. Yeah he lost Gronk, but they still should have had a field day with the two games against the Dolphins and Jags, with or without Gronk.

     

    There's no doubt Brady is in decline, he's going to be 36 years old! He's still better than most QBs in the league. Assuming he doesn't go through a sharp decline, I still think he has 2 very good years left in him.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Brady In Decline?

    In response to RockScully's comment:

    BB needs to scale Brady back. Get him back under center more, run more base sets, leave a blocking TE (even Gronk) back at the line more, and try to get to play action in a game asap.

    This is exactly what they did on Sunday and it failed miserably without Gronk as our TEs were abused by Kruger and Suggs.  Hopefully Gronk stays healthy and Ballard provides more solid depth.

     

    [QUOTE]

    This is what hurt Ocho and even Lloyd.  The Lloyd thing is telling. He's probably wondering why on earth Brady ignored him as much as he did this year.

    [/QUOTE]

    Only 18 receivers in the entire NFL were targeted more than Lloyd this season.  He was targeted 14 times last week.  What are you talking about?

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    The author seems to be trying to force the numbers to fit his premise.

    Yes, his YPA were (slightly) down, but that's because his completion % (mentioned in the same breath) was also (slightly) down.  His yards per completion were identical to both 2007 and 2010; which you may recognize as "the years he won the MVP."  And this is despite the fact that the Pats had very few yards after the catch, as he also mentions.

    He threw 5 interceptions in December, yes, but December was one of the few months that had 5 Sundays; and he threw well over 200 passes (217) in those 5 games.  Not great, but a far cry from what the author is trying to prove; that's actually a LOWER INT % than his career average.  Also, he didn't mention the only 3 interceptions he threw in his other 420 pass attempts this season.  Overall, it was the second fewest interceptions he has EVER thrown in a season, despite, by far, the most pass attempts.

    Brady may have been able to run for that first down, but Ngata was right on his heels, and Brady (as he's done throughout his career) was looking downfield the whole time.  His entire upper body was twisted back towards the center of the field; by the time he tucked the ball and committed to run, he likely would have been tackled for no gain.

    He mentioned the San Francisco game, and shrugged off the second half resurgence as Smith going out.  Regardless, he drove the team the length of the field FOUR times in about FIFTEEN minutes to come back from a 31-3 deficit.  I don't care who was on the other side of the ball, that was the most amazing display of offensive execution I think I have ever seen.

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    OMG guys I just realized Aaron Rodgers is in decline.

    His yards per attempt was his lowest since his first season as a starter in 2008.

    He just set a career low in yards per completion.

    His 12 total turnovers is the most he's had since his first season as a starter in 2008.

    It is clear now.  All the signs I've cherrypicked point to Rodgers being on the downside of his career.  /facepalm

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    May I suggest that those who care to take a look here and draw there own conclusion:

    http://boston.stats.com/fb/playerstats.asp?id=5228&team=17&page=enc

    I'm not entirely sure I see much of a drop off.  I say that because Brady has traditionally had trouble with Baltimore throughout his career and I happen to believe that, in the last playoff game, the Ravens played off the charts well as a team and the Pats entire offense had lapses at some very inconvenient times.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: Brady In Decline?

    In response to dapats1281's comment:

    I noticed the decline in accuracy too. In his last 5 games, he hasnt had one game in which he's thrown for higher than 70% of his passes.

    Comparatively, Peyton had 3 in his last 5

    Ryan had 2

    Rodgers had 3

    Drew Brees has 0, but he had a 69.8 and other games where he was much higher than Brady.

     

    Considering the style of offense the Pats run, and the opponents they faced in that stretch, it's surprisingly low. Yeah he lost Gronk, but they still should have had a field day with the two games against the Dolphins and Jags, with or without Gronk.

     

    There's no doubt Brady is in decline, he's going to be 36 years old! He's still better than most QBs in the league. Assuming he doesn't go through a sharp decline, I still think he has 2 very good years left in him.



    Ummm, Its called Dropped Passes and guys who cant get open. Ryan has the all time best TE to throw too who pushes off and always catches evrthing along with 2 premiere WRs in Roddy and J.Jones. Probably the best duo in the league and u compare that to LLoyd and Branch...lol

     

    Rogers, lets see, Jones, Jennings, Nelson, Driver, Finley...and Drew brees well we know that team is stacked.. 

     

    Troll much!  Present the whole story please....smh

     
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    Re: Brady In Decline?

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    Bottom line from the article...

    "Brady is still so far ahead of most other quarterbacks that, even with a drop-off in his performance, he will likely be a top-tier passer for the next two to three seasons."

     

    Learn the game junior.

     

    Mediocre team + Brady = close but no cigar.

    Mediocre team + no Brady = just another team.



    This mentality likely helps you understand how great Manning is. 

     
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