Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from CubanPete. Show CubanPete's posts

    Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    If the Pats win out (13-3) they clinch a bye (#1 if Denver loses one game).

    If the Pats win 2/3 (12-4) they have to hope Cincinnati loses at least one game.

    What would happen if the Pats finish 11-5?

    Based on what I've seen recently, it wouldn't shock me to see the Pats losing their next two games, both on the road. They will beat Buffalo at home, otherwise, any discussion about the 2013 Pats would be rendered academic.

    Assume a bad case scenario: losing at Miami and at Baltimore and winning vs Buffalo, we can throw the #1 seed into the trash bin. That leaves Cincinnati and Indianapolis. The inexcusable loss to the Jets is haunting the team.

    Here's what to look for if the Pats finish 11-5...

    Bengals (9-4):

    • @Pittsburgh
    • Minnesota
    • Baltimore

    Tiebreaker: Beat Patriots 13-6

    Reasons for Optimism: The Bengals have not been the same since Geno Atkins was lost for the season. Atkins was the #1 ranked DT according to PFF. Losing an elite player on D is always crushing. In their last 5, the Bengals are 3-2 with a 3 game win streak. That said, the only team they beat with a winning record are the Colts, losers of 3 of their last 5 games. The Bengals have had trouble in their division and it wouldn't surprise me to see them lose 2 of their last 3. The Steelers and Vikings have been playing hard in recent weeks, while the Ravens will be fighting for their lives.

    Reasons for Pessimism: Cincy can afford one loss. Whether you play hard or not, you are what your record says you are. With that said, the Steelers and Vikings both suck. Cincy has the Ravens at home.

    Colts (8-5):

    • Houston
    • @Kansas City
    • Jacksonville

    Tiebreaker: Colts AFC (9-3) / Pats AFC (8-4)

    Reasons for Optimism: Indy must win out. Indy has looked awful over the last 5 weeks (2-3) with both of their wins against the sinking Titans. Houston has, in recent years, pushed Indy to the brink. Their first meeting in 2013, the Colts won at Houston, 27-24. The Chiefs will be playing at home and beating the Colts will garner some good will with their fans. Jacksonville has won 4 of their last 5 and with the Bills and Titans coming to town, it's highly likely that the Jags will be riding a 5-game win streak into Indy. They will be motivated.

    Reasons for Pessimism: Houston may play Indy tough again, but will likely lose. That would be par for the course for this rivalry. After getting swept by Denver, the Chiefs will be playing a meaningless game, assuming they win at Oakland this week. Despite their late season surge that began in week 10, the Jags played only one team with a winning record, and lost (Cardinals 27-14).

    What if there's a 3-way tie?

    Simple. Cincinnati wins by beating the 2 other teams in the regular season.

     

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from joepatsfan111111. Show joepatsfan111111's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?


    no. 12-4 i think gets it done. 11-5 could be if we got real lucky. the colts are straight trash right now so they shouldnt even be brought up

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    Yeah it could happen.  I think KC downs Indy so I'm not worried about them.  Cincy always seems to choke against the AFC North so it's not completely crazy to think they could lose to both Balt and Pitt.  I'd rather not bet on it though.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    No, the Bengals are a legit threat fot the # 2

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from CubanPete. Show CubanPete's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    In response to joepatsfan111111's comment:


    no. 12-4 i think gets it done. 11-5 could be if we got real lucky. the colts are straight trash right now so they shouldn't even be brought up




    Since they are one of two teams that mathematically threaten the Pats, not only should the Colts be in the discussion, they have the softest schedule. The Chiefs have enjoyed a soft schedule. When they face a team with a winning record that does not reside in the NFC East, they are 0-2 and lost at home to the 6-7 Chargers. Indy is a lock to beat the Texans and Jags at home. They also are capable of beating KC on the road.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    KC will be a wild card.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from NYC. Show NYC's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    I think we have to adjust to what we have: a season filleld with injuries, probable lost title hopes but incredible courage and teamwork shown in the comeback wins. It is hard for us narcissistic sports fans to reconcile reality; we often live in our dreams and our dreams are about being untouchable as #1.

    The Gronk hit was vicious and graphic but in a way it describes well the all the hits the team has taken this year. Seeing the larger than life Gronk get smacked down so helplessly reminded me of how vulnerable all of life is. How powerless we all are despite our best efforts and intentions. Still, the team fighting on to win was a more powerful statement: the team and all its efforts together are greater than 1 individual no matter how great that individual is. So, for me, this is a triumphant season and somehow no matter what happens in the final games I sense we will be proud of what our team has accomplished.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from glenr. Show glenr's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    No

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from AZPAT. Show AZPAT's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    In response to melswitt's comment:


    NOPE




    + 1,000,000

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from portfolio1. Show portfolio1's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    Unlikely. BUt the most important factor is what we do in the playoffs regardless of where we play or even if we have a bye. 

    HAving said that obvious point just to keep eyes on the real prize... if they cant win 2 of these game it will reflect on where we are without Gronk. It will not be the end of the season. That can ONLY happen in the playoffs. But the next three games will still test this team and so be meaningful.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from CubanPete. Show CubanPete's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    Updated my OP with the 3-way tie scenarios.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from CubanPete. Show CubanPete's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    In response to NYC's comment:

     

    I think we have to adjust to what we have: a season filleld with injuries, probable lost title hopes but incredible courage and teamwork shown in the comeback wins. It is hard for us narcissistic sports fans to reconcile reality; we often live in our dreams and our dreams are about being untouchable as #1.

    The Gronk hit was vicious and graphic but in a way it describes well the all the hits the team has taken this year. Seeing the larger than life Gronk get smacked down so helplessly reminded me of how vulnerable all of life is. How powerless we all are despite our best efforts and intentions. Still, the team fighting on to win was a more powerful statement: the team and all its efforts together are greater than 1 individual no matter how great that individual is. So, for me, this is a triumphant season and somehow no matter what happens in the final games I sense we will be proud of what our team has accomplished.

     




    That hit was clean. Injuries are a part of the game. Every team has to deal with them.

     

    What they will have accomplished would be 9 consecutive seasons without a SBC. We are not Browns fans, or Lions fans. Seeing my team losing in the playoffs for NINE straight seasons, gets old.

    If this team, dinged up and thin as it is, has to drudge through the playoffs from the WC round and likely fail, all because of a shameful loss to the Jets, they will only accomplish in frustrating me for yet, another season.

    Truth is this team has gotten this far because of luck. Pure and simple. They blew a late 31-24 lead to Denver only to have a fluke play on a punt return save the day. They put themselves in a hole at home against a 3-9 team, that had (I'm guessing) less than a 1% chance of getting out from, which they wound up doing thanks to a Bogus PI call after Brady overthrew Boyce.

    After 9 seasons, I'm wondering if Kraft is enjoying the cash flow from the sellouts too much to reevaluate this team from GM to practice squad.

    Any chance this team has of winning it all pretty much depends on this team getting a bye.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from seawolfxs. Show seawolfxs's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    In response to AZPAT's comment:

    In response to melswitt's comment:


    NOPE




    + 1,000,000



    x 10

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    To many variables to say... but, if the other teams in the running win out and the Pats do not, they are on the road!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from AZPAT. Show AZPAT's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?


    Let's put the crystal ball, Oiuji Board, and tea leaves alone for a minute. Let's also put aside our hopes, dreams, and wishes as if they will be the determining factors for if/how the Pats will progress through the playoffs. Let's look at factual data:

    1) The collective record to date of teams the Pats beat this season is 56-74, .431

    2) The collective record to date of teams the Pats lost to this season is 24-15. .615.

    3) Two of the three losses came against teams that WILL be in the playoffs (Bengals and Panthers), with the 3rd having that proverbial snow ball's chance (JESTS!)

    4) As of today, they are 2-2 vs probable playoff teams (wins: Brokebacks and Saints; losses: Panthers and Bengals), with another against either the Ravens or Fish (2 if you count both Fish games). Then again, they could lose both games against them too.

    5) They have two games left vs the MOST LIKELY of playoff teams (Pick one: Fish or Ravens), both on the road. (Note that the JESTS! have to play @ Carolina and then host the Fish, while the Bolts have to play in ndenver and host KC. Not impossible schedules for both, but not probable that they will run the table either.)

    5) WITH Gronk, the Pats have beaten 1 playoff bound team (Brokebacks), losing to another (Panthers)

    6) The Pats playing .500 ball against playoff bound teams is an pretty accurate harninger of what they will do in the post season. Their seemingly automatic 10-12 wins/year mean nothing, as exhibited by this year's soft schedule (combined 80-95, .457).

    Conclusion is that, without Gronk, and with all those major season-ending defensive injuries, the Miracle On Ice (1980 US Hockey team) would have a close second challenger. But, that team was fully healthy, except for 1 player, who did eventually play. Not so much for Gronk to pull a Willis Reed, or Kurt Gibson. At least they, too, played and contributed.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    I don't see the Patriots ending up 11-5

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    I still expect the Pats to get the #2 seed and a first round BYE.

    I expect the 2 NY swamp teams to get byes too ...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    In response to CubanPete's comment:

     

    What they will have accomplished would be 9 consecutive seasons without a SBC. We are not Browns fans, or Lions fans. Seeing my team losing in the playoffs for NINE straight seasons, gets old.

    RESPONSE: Amen!

    If this team, dinged up and thin as it is, has to drudge through the playoffs from the WC round and likely fail, all because of a shameful loss to the Jets, they will only accomplish in frustrating me for yet, another season.

    RESPONSE: Yes...no bye, and it's bye bye for another season. To get a bye, the Pats at a minimum must go 12-4...and hope that the Bengals drop one of their final three. An 11-5 record won't cut it. 

    Truth is this team has gotten this far because of luck. Pure and simple. They blew a late 31-24 lead to Denver only to have a fluke play on a punt return save the day. They put themselves in a hole at home against a 3-9 team, that had (I'm guessing) less than a 1% chance of getting out from, which they wound up doing thanks to a Bogus PI call after Brady overthrew Boyce.

    RESPONSE: Yes...the Pats were lucky to beat the Browns. The truth of the matter is that they haven't play well since beating the Broncos.

    After 9 seasons, I'm wondering if Kraft is enjoying the cash flow from the sellouts too much to reevaluate this team from GM to practice squad.

    RESPONSE: No. The problem is that Kraft, in order to keep BB the coach, is stuck with BB, the GM. The way that the Pats have been playing lately, they look closer to the end of the line, rather than a legitimate SB contender. 

    Any chance this team has of winning it all pretty much depends on this team getting a bye.

    RESPONSE: Without Gronk, I don't see this team being anything more than playoff fodder...bye or no bye. How they perform in Miami and in Baltimore over the next two weeks will speak volumes.




     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from joepatsfan111111. Show joepatsfan111111's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    In response to CubanPete's comment:

    In response to joepatsfan111111's comment:

     


    no. 12-4 i think gets it done. 11-5 could be if we got real lucky. the colts are straight trash right now so they shouldn't even be brought up

     




    Since they are one of two teams that mathematically threaten the Pats, not only should the Colts be in the discussion, they have the softest schedule. The Chiefs have enjoyed a soft schedule. When they face a team with a winning record that does not reside in the NFC East, they are 0-2 and lost at home to the 6-7 Chargers. Indy is a lock to beat the Texans and Jags at home. They also are capable of beating KC on the road.

     

    [/QUOTE

    very good point. But even with a soft schedule this team fails to show up the last 3 weeks and those Division games are never a guarantee. KC could beat this team easily. Colts have no defense and their D is declining as the seasoN progresses

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    I still expect the Pats to get the #2 seed and a first round BYE.

    I expect the 2 NY swamp teams to get byes too ...




    one is already eli-minated, the other will be jet-tisonned

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ccsjl. Show ccsjl's posts

    Re: Can the Patriots get a Bye at 11-5?

    Bye or no bye - with an offense that cant score in first half there is no way Pats make SB.....They look like being set up for another one and done playoff season....

     
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