Cap and building a roster

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mia76. Show mia76's posts

    Cap and building a roster

    I find a lot of the posts interesting about signing this guy or signing that guy or using the tag on someone in this cap stagnant era, as if you can overspend at will. Thought I would start a thread to discuss cap management and building teams. The general idea is to be balanced in terms of spending on offense and defense and have enough money left from big ticket players to fill out the rest of the starters with decent talent. Because QB is THE premium position in terms of salary, the balance for teams with high quality veteran QBs tend to be a little slanted in that direction. The Pats fall into that category so an approximate breakdown would be:

    Total cap = 123M - minus specialist at 5M (K, P, Long Snapper) = 118M - minus dead space 3M (not sure what the league average is but probably in that neighborhood) 115M. For Pats and other vet pro bowl QB teams subtract a QB 'extra' of 5M = 110M. Subtract another 10M for draft pool, udfa, and in season manouverability and you end up at 100M or 50M each for offense and defense.

    Typically the top 8 players on a team (veteran leaders) are going to come in around 50M and be split fairly closely between offense and defense which leaves a pool of 25M for 7 additional starters and about 18 reserves (15-16 actual plus IR players) With veteran minimums and rookie salary guys those 18 probably average about $0.7M per for a total of 12-13M leaving a pool of 12-13M for the 7 additional starters. Hopefully half of those starters are actually still on their rookie contracts and averaging maybe 1M so the other 3 or 4 players have to split 8-10M between them. That is not a lot of money to be thrown around.

    So where do the Pats stand (numbers are approximate based on 'OvertheCap'):

    Offense top 4 - 27.4M (32.4 minus the QB 5M weighting) Brady 13.8M, Mankins 10M, Lloyd 4.5M, Hernandez 4.1M.

    Defense top 4 - 21.9M Wilfork 10.6M, Mayo 5.6M, Nink 3.1M, Gregory 2.6M

    Top 8 total = 49.3M

    Tag costs for CB, OL, or WR all are at near 10M which would put the offense at 33.3M (add tag remove Hernandez for top 4) or the defense at 29.3M (add tag and remove Gregory) and the top 8 number at 54.2M or 56.7M. This is part of why I don't think the tag will be used today. For Welker or Vollmer it throws the team more out of balance Off/Def. For Talib it is just too inflexible given additional defensive needs. A 4 year contract can be much more flexible and allow for two or three holes to be filled.

    I think this also shows why Brady's new contract was so important and why GB, Atl, and Balt are all facing future problems and NO and Denver are already a little shaky with their QBs due for 20M/yr cap hits either currently or in the near future. And it also shows why a player like Revis is such a problem for the Jets - and why other teams are unlikely to give up much in trade. His new contract demands are like adding another QB 'penalty' of 5M to your roster and while he is a great player, at 15M/yr you are left filling the rest of the defense - 10 starters - at around 22-23M. Add in one star LB and one star DL at 7M each and you have the rest of your 8 starters averaging about 1M per.

    One of the things BB and the Pats have done really well throughout the years is to keep the quality of the back-ups good by not overpaying the 'stars' and other starters. It is a minor difference in cost that adds up quickly when you consider they represent 31 of 56 roster spots. Adding 2-5M to the back end roster can be a huge difference in quality and results when injuries hit. If you lose cap control you are depending on low grade rookies and journeyman vets on minimum salaries to fill in when injuries occur. Buffalo, NY, and Miami have all suffered from this syndrome though the Bills and Dolphins mostly suffered because they didn't spend enough rather than overspent on starters.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    Good stuff mia.  The Pats aren't perfect (as many here are quick to point out). They've overpaid a few guys.  But they've avoided the type of mistake that can really limit a team cap-wise. The guys they've paid big money to, Brady, Vince, Mankins come to mind, are still playing and contributing. It's a killer when those type of contracts become dead money.

    Brady's deal is a huge help, but don't feel too sorry for Tom. He's got $57 mil in guaranteed money coming. Not too shabby. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    Great post Mia

    This is why I keep saying you can't get everyone so you have to pick and chose. That's why looking at pieces like Nelson and Ramses make a ton of sense. They are in positions of need not only for starters but also depth. They are low cost options that have potential to play above their contracts. Those are the types of players they need to target for depth because of the cap and see what they can turn into. That's why Vega and Armstead were good pick ups. Low cost options that have potential turn into high returns while not hurting the cap and adds depth. I'm looking at this offseason to be closer to the pre 01 and 02 offseasons

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    Great post Mia

    This is why I keep saying you can't get everyone so you have to pick and chose. That's why looking at pieces like Nelson and Ramses make a ton of sense. They are in positions of need not only for starters but also depth. They are low cost options that have potential to play above their contracts. Those are the types of players they need to target for depth because of the cap and see what they can turn into. That's why Vega and Armstead were good pick ups. Low cost options that have potential turn into high returns while not hurting the cap and adds depth. I'm looking at this offseason to be closer to the pre 01 and 02 offseasons



    exactly........Pats need to really be careful this year........instead of going after one big name for WR...I would like to see them consider lower cost options that have strong upsides. Build for the future and add some depth. T

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mia76. Show mia76's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    In response to Muzwell's comment:

    Good stuff mia.  The Pats aren't perfect (as many here are quick to point out). They've overpaid a few guys.  But they've avoided the type of mistake that can really limit a team cap-wise. The guys they've paid big money to, Brady, Vince, Mankins come to mind, are still playing and contributing. It's a killer when those type of contracts become dead money.

    Brady's deal is a huge help, but don't feel too sorry for Tom. He's got $57 mil in guaranteed money coming. Not too shabby. 



    Just a clarification that came out on Brady's deal. He only got a 3M boost to his fully guaranteed money at signing, and the 2015 - 2017 contract numbers are only guaranteed at the start of each league year based on physically being able to play - this is the type of guarantee that Payton got in his deal as well. It is just a little insurance against his career ending early due to injury, and makes me feel better about the '5 year guarantee' to a 35 year old.

    On the other commentors - agree about exploring the Nelson type free agents - cheap veteran guys with decent upside potential. BB has been pretty good at finding those types of FAs Walters, Carter, and Adnerson being some of the recent examples. Guys that may not have gotten a chance with the previous team, or had problems fitting into the specific system. About 60% of every team is made up of either mid or late round draft picks, UDFAs, or vets playing on near minimum deals. And another 10-20% is players on 1.5M-3M deals that may never be stars, but provide good value starters or reserves. Most teams only have around 10 star quality players and about half of them are on their rookie deals.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from portfolio1. Show portfolio1's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    Pats will need to work into the cap the following:

    - Welker or his replacement (not necessarily a slot guy)

    - Vollmer or his replacement or at least a back up

    - Talib or hos replacement

    - AN upgrade on the DL

    AND

    - either a C or G or depth if they really like Wendell and Connolly

    - a third CB

    - A cover LB

    - Another player who can rush the passer

    - A WR who adds QUAILTY depth and can stretch the field

     

    That is a bit to add... except for one player (either a DL or a CB) I do not think it will be a splash of big names.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mia76. Show mia76's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    In response to portfolio1's comment:

    Pats will need to work into the cap the following:

    - Welker or his replacement (not necessarily a slot guy)

    - Vollmer or his replacement or at least a back up

    - Talib or hos replacement

    - AN upgrade on the DL

    AND

    - either a C or G or depth if they really like Wendell and Connolly

    - a third CB

    - A cover LB

    - Another player who can rush the passer

    - A WR who adds QUAILTY depth and can stretch the field

     

    That is a bit to add... except for one player (either a DL or a CB) I do not think it will be a splash of big names.



    I think the money plays will be at WR (Welker) and CB (Talib or a similar contract) for probably about 12-14M in cap.

    I think they want Vollmer and Edelman and Woodhead and Arrington and Thomas back but may be outbid on all of them. At RB they probably do not replace Woodhead as they are pretty solid, and at RT they may be happy with Cannon starting if Vollmer leaves. They will sign another CB for the slot if Arrington is gone. And they need another receiver. I don't see any of these players being big ticket and they may be draftees/ mid level vets late in FA at discount prices. They are probably also looking at DL and S in free agency, but again will not make a splash signing.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    Great post, Pretty much the post i've been waiting to read since the season ended.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from palookaski. Show palookaski's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    mia76: excellent work, appreciated ;-)) Do you do your own 1040s each tax year? ;)

    You must never be accused of just being another jag on the forum. Faucetman used to provide us with a cap accountability resource but I notice him on the draft Thread only now.

    thanks again and have a good night.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbru. Show bredbru's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    In response to mia76's comment:

    In response to portfolio1's comment:

     

    Pats will need to work into the cap the following:

    - Welker or his replacement (not necessarily a slot guy)

    - Vollmer or his replacement or at least a back up

    - Talib or hos replacement

    - AN upgrade on the DL

    AND

    - either a C or G or depth if they really like Wendell and Connolly

    - a third CB

    - A cover LB

    - Another player who can rush the passer

    - A WR who adds QUAILTY depth and can stretch the field

     

    That is a bit to add... except for one player (either a DL or a CB) I do not think it will be a splash of big names.

     



    I think the money plays will be at WR (Welker) and CB (Talib or a similar contract) for probably about 12-14M in cap.

     

    I think they want Vollmer and Edelman and Woodhead and Arrington and Thomas back but may be outbid on all of them. At RB they probably do not replace Woodhead as they are pretty solid, and at RT they may be happy with Cannon starting if Vollmer leaves. They will sign another CB for the slot if Arrington is gone. And they need another receiver. I don't see any of these players being big ticket and they may be draftees/ mid level vets late in FA at discount prices. They are probably also looking at DL and S in free agency, but again will not make a splash signing.



    all resonable and possible. 

    agree with the need, though not sold we wont splash.

    as bb says, we'll do whatever we can to make our football team better.

    good stuff

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mia76. Show mia76's posts

    Re: Cap and building a roster

    Bredbru - by 'splash' I am talking about franchise type numbers or above, or top of the market numbers. Besides the WR and CB spend which will be close, the other FA targets will be well below the tag numbers. The exception to that might be for a safety because the safety tag number is so low.

    A player like Goldson who just played on the tag and has the cache of having been on a SB team is probably priced out of their target range, but a Quin might come in at a reasonable price.

    Vollmer may get left tackle money from someone and that would price him off the Pats, especially given his medicals and Cannon being on the roster. Money that I could see them doling out for the right vet (after signing the Welker/? and Talib/? players:

    RT - 5-6M (If vollmer gets LT consideration his number will be above this.)

    CB - 4M (arrington type money probably)

    WR - 4M

    DT/DE - 4-5M

    Safety - 5M

    G/C - 3M (Thomas may get starter money above this)

    Obviously they can't do all of that, but depending on the #1 WR and #1 CB numbers, they might do one or two of those. After that it will be bargain deals at the end of FA on 1-2M deals (rent a vets)

    Interesting question - Welker at Cap of 8M or Jennings at 10M or Amendola and Edelman at 10M or Wallace at 11M - And take into account the 2-3M that you lose to sign a better CB, DT/DE, S, or G So Wallace means no Quin or Freeney or Abrahams or ?

     
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