My stats just don't like Indy. Pats are 2.8 points ahead.
Worse, my stats are blind to recent injuries. Indy's recent loss of a second starting cornerback should add to the number. Worse for Indy, the Patriots may get starting left tackle Matt Light back, starting running back Sammy Morris (usually preferred to Maroney) back, starting center Dan Koppen back and starting kickoff returner Julian Edelman (who busted a punt return in preseason) back. Key starters have consequences.
I'm not the least bit recognized as a national expert, but so far my power ratings have been fairly dead-on. I like the basic concepts in my rating system better than anything out there. So you can lump me in with the national crowd if you want.
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The latest news is that I slightly favored San Francisco to beat the spread last night. That particular call was too lucky because San Fran in fact just slightly beat the spread. It sure keeps my interest when my spreadsheet's call is dead on. Chicago picked up minor brownie points on my spreadsheet for fighting the good losing fight, but really no power rankings changed with that one game.