Defense wins championships after all . . .

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Defense wins championships after all . . .

    Thought this was interesting.  It shows the number of TDs given up each season by the D during the Belichick years and the number of TDs scored by the O.  There's been a clear trend toward a higher scoring offense throughout the Belichick years.  Defense, however, is up and down from year to year.  Not surprisingly, it's mostly the years where the D gives up the fewest TDs that Pats seem to have the most success. 

     

    Year TDs given up by defense TDs scored by offense Differential
    2000 34 27 -7
    2001 22 36 14
    2002 40 37 -3
    2003 21 32 11
    2004 27 44 17
    2005 36 44 8
    2006 21 45 24
    2007 30 67 37
    2008 35 42 7
    2009 31 47 16
    2010 35 56 21
    2011 39 57 18
    2012 37 59 22
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    Thought this was interesting.  It shows the number of TDs given up each season by the D during the Belichick years and the number of TDs scored by the O.  There's been a clear trend toward a higher scoring offense throughout the Belichick years.  Defense, however, is up and down from year to year.  Not surprisingly, it's mostly the years where the D gives up the fewest TDs that Pats seem to have the most success. 

     

    Year TDs given up by defense TDs scored by offense Differential 2000 34 27 -7 2001 22 36 14 2002 40 37 -3 2003 21 32 11 2004 27 44 17 2005 36 44 8 2006 21 45 24 2007 30 67 37 2008 35 42 7 2009 31 47 16 2010 35 56 21 2011 39 57 18 2012 37 59 22


    a very clear trend indeed. Defensive driven teams with balanced offense wins super bowls. Offensive driven teams with average defenses win regular season scoring titles and average 14 points in super bowls and afc championship games. Good work here Pro. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    So basically what I extrapolate from the above table is:

    If our Offense got to play our defense every game for the past 6 years we would be 114 -0 while winning 6 more Super Bowl trophies.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

     

     It's almost as if, as the defense got worse, BB turned up the dial on the offense. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    As the team in general got more and more mediocre the great HC and QB couldn't compensate for the poor choices of the GM; very clear, yes.

     

     

     http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff6/babeparilli/gif_193x113_39ce6f_zps83b8ca29.gif?t=1373985234

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

     

     It's almost as if, as the defense got worse, BB turned up the dial on the offense. 




    Brady just kept getting better and better. Meanwhile BB couldn't stop the deterioration (through aging) of his inherited defense to save his life.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    I'm not sure what the defensive giving up too many touchdowns has to do with the real problem:

    Brady is all about his stats and calls the shotgun too much.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    I don't know why they bother playing the playoff games, they should just hand the Lombardi to the team that scores the most in the regular season.

    What happens in the regular season means nothing.  The Giant's last two Super Bowl victories, they came into the playoffs with a defense as bad or worse than ours, wait, odd isn't it that two teams with middle of the pack defenses ended up in the Super Bowl, how is that even possible..?

    Oh yeah, the playoffs are in the winter....

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    I don't know why they bother playing the playoff games, they should just hand the Lombardi to the team that scores the most in the regular season.

    What happens in the regular season means nothing.  The Giant's last two Super Bowl victories, they came into the playoffs with a defense as bad or worse than ours, wait, odd isn't it that two teams with middle of the pack defenses ended up in the Super Bowl, how is that even possible..?

    Oh yeah, the playoffs are in the winter....




    In the last one the Giants got key guys back from in injury late in the season and we lost our greatest weapon just before the SB. We hung in despite that but the D collapsed at the crucial moment again. (and of course the butterfingers play)

    In 2007 simply horrible O-line play and a D collapse (with a fluke thrown in) undid us.

    The team has been way too thin talent wise for some years now to stay really solid in the face of a key injury.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    I don't know why they bother playing the playoff games, they should just hand the Lombardi to the team that scores the most in the regular season.

    What happens in the regular season means nothing.  The Giant's last two Super Bowl victories, they came into the playoffs with a defense as bad or worse than ours, wait, odd isn't it that two teams with middle of the pack defenses ended up in the Super Bowl, how is that even possible..?

    Oh yeah, the playoffs are in the winter....



    But the Super Bowl is played in a dome . . . 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    Yep, you've given us every reason we lost except for the most obvious, the offense scoring less than half of their regular season average points per game. But I guess that doesn't really matter in the big picture...

    The whole saying "that's why they play the games" was for reasons like this, regardless of what you did all year, the entire season comes down to one game and you have to play it. 

    The defense does what they do, be ordinary, average, and the offense is half as good as they usually are is usually a recipe for disaster.

    Very good defenses win championships but having an offense that can score against very good defenses matters also.  The last two Super Bowls we went to, the defense held the Giants to the lowest of our three Super Bowl victory totals.  We didn't score.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    Yep, you've given us every reason we lost except for the most obvious, the offense scoring less than half of their regular season average points per game. But I guess that doesn't really matter in the big picture...

     



    If the D can't get off the field or get some turnovers the offense isn't apt to score as many points as usual.

    Of course if the game is a series of 5 minute drives the overall scoring will be lower. After all, there are only twelve 5 minute chunks in the game. That's not good defense, that bad defense. When you allow the opposing QB a 75% completion rate, there are going to be a lot of long drives.

     

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from fatsam72. Show fatsam72's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    Waaiiiit.   I think I see where this is going...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    because second place just isn't good enough.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RallyC. Show RallyC's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

     

    Thought this was interesting.  It shows the number of TDs given up each season by the D during the Belichick years and the number of TDs scored by the O.  There's been a clear trend toward a higher scoring offense throughout the Belichick years.  Defense, however, is up and down from year to year.  Not surprisingly, it's mostly the years where the D gives up the fewest TDs that Pats seem to have the most success. 

     

     

     


    Prolate, though there is clear truth to your statement, the problem is that total points scored in the league for the last 3-seasons in a row have set all-time records with that record now sitting at 11651 points scored in 2012. Since the Superbowl era began in 1966 there have been no higher totals of points scored in any primary statistical category, offensive or defensive, than what we have seen over these last three seasons.

    What this shows us its that you better be able to score not just more points than you ever have had to before, but at NFL record levels every single season as that is the present trend and it doesn't look like it is gonna stop climbing anytime soon with more dynamic offenses entering the scene each and every year. This places the Coaches emphasis squarely on the only scoring entity that any NFL coach has true control over and that is his offense and to a lesser extent, the kick return game. Yes, the defensive numbers for scoring are at all time record highs too, but you cannot be focused on "scoring defense" as it just isn't realistic to expect or strategize for such scoring. With this trend, passing TDs have set all-time records the last two seasons while rushing TD totals have fallen through the floor. So those of you who ask for a more ball controlled offense, FORGET IT. The NFL just doesn't agree with that philosophy any longer.

    Now, I do believe that there is merit in bringing more balance to the offensive attack, but only marginally so as the facts show that passing for TDs has afforded teams more points per game than any other method over these last few years without fail so don't expect our offense to stop favoring that method. Bottom line: Your pass D better be good at competing against the pass happy NFL, and you better be scoring at a clip better than 23+ pts per game in 2013-14 if you want to go anywhere............

    So Pro, yeah, we need to keep the scoring down, but more likely is that we keep trying to score at a record breaking clip as that is how WE do it. Thank God it looks like our secondary and D over all will be vastly improved.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to RallyC's comment:

     

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

     

    Thought this was interesting.  It shows the number of TDs given up each season by the D during the Belichick years and the number of TDs scored by the O.  There's been a clear trend toward a higher scoring offense throughout the Belichick years.  Defense, however, is up and down from year to year.  Not surprisingly, it's mostly the years where the D gives up the fewest TDs that Pats seem to have the most success. 

     

     

     


    Prolate, though there is clear truth to your statement, the problem is that total points scored in the league for the last 3-seasons in a row have set all-time records with that record now sitting at 11651 points scored in 2012. Since the beginning of the Superbowl era began in 1966 there have been no higher totals of points scored in any primary statistical category, offensive or defensive, than what we have seen over these last three seasons.

    What this shows us its that you better be able to score not just more points than you ever have had to before, but at NFL record levels every single season as that is the present trend and it doesn't look like it is gonna stop climbing anytime soon with more dynamic offenses entering the scene each and every year. This places the Coaches emphasis squarely on the only scoring entity that any NFL coach has true control over and that is his offense and to a lesser extent, the kick return game. Yes, the defensive numbers for scoring are at all time record highs too, but you cannot be focused on "scoring defense" as it just isn't realistic to expect or strategize for such scoring. With this trend, passing TDs have set all-time records the last two seasons while rushing TD totals have fallen through the floor. So those of you who ask for a more ball controlled offense, FORGET IT. The NFL just doesn't agree with that philosophy any longer.

    Now, I do believe that there is merit in bringing more balance to the offensive attack, but only marginally so as the facts show that passing for TDs has afforded teams more points per game than any other method over these last few years without fail so don't expect our offense to stop favoring that method. Bottom line: Your pass D better be good at competing against the pass happy NFL, and you better be scoring at a clip better that 23+ pts per game in 2013-14 if you want to go anywhere............

    So Pro, yeah, we need to keep the scoring down, but more likely is that we keep trying to score at a record breaking clip as that is how WE do it. Thank God it looks like our secondary and D over all will be vastly improved.

     

     



    Good stuff Rally.  I think BB has been very smart to turn the offense up to "eleven" especially given the defense's penchant for giving up points.  Over the past decade scoring has increased, with teams now averaging almost 36 TDs per season, up from about 33 per season around the start of the millenium.  The Pats defense has declined from one that gave up well below the 33 TD per season average to one that gives up a bit more than the new 35 TD per season average.  The Pats keep winning because the offense has compensated with its more explosive approach.

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from GO47. Show GO47's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to RallyC's comment:

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

     

    Thought this was interesting.  It shows the number of TDs given up each season by the D during the Belichick years and the number of TDs scored by the O.  There's been a clear trend toward a higher scoring offense throughout the Belichick years.  Defense, however, is up and down from year to year.  Not surprisingly, it's mostly the years where the D gives up the fewest TDs that Pats seem to have the most success. 

     

     

     


    Prolate, though there is clear truth to your statement, the problem is that total points scored in the league for the last 3-seasons in a row have set all-time records with that record now sitting at 11651 points scored in 2012. Since the Superbowl era began in 1966 there have been no higher totals of points scored in any primary statistical category, offensive or defensive, than what we have seen over these last three seasons.

    What this shows us its that you better be able to score not just more points than you ever have had to before, but at NFL record levels every single season as that is the present trend and it doesn't look like it is gonna stop climbing anytime soon with more dynamic offenses entering the scene each and every year. This places the Coaches emphasis squarely on the only scoring entity that any NFL coach has true control over and that is his offense and to a lesser extent, the kick return game. Yes, the defensive numbers for scoring are at all time record highs too, but you cannot be focused on "scoring defense" as it just isn't realistic to expect or strategize for such scoring. With this trend, passing TDs have set all-time records the last two seasons while rushing TD totals have fallen through the floor. So those of you who ask for a more ball controlled offense, FORGET IT. The NFL just doesn't agree with that philosophy any longer.

    Now, I do believe that there is merit in bringing more balance to the offensive attack, but only marginally so as the facts show that passing for TDs has afforded teams more points per game than any other method over these last few years without fail so don't expect our offense to stop favoring that method. Bottom line: Your pass D better be good at competing against the pass happy NFL, and you better be scoring at a clip better than 23+ pts per game in 2013-14 if you want to go anywhere............

    So Pro, yeah, we need to keep the scoring down, but more likely is that we keep trying to score at a record breaking clip as that is how WE do it. Thank God it looks like our secondary and D over all will be vastly improved.

     



    Excellent post. There is no doubt that it has turned into a passing league. This what the NFL wants which is why they are so strict with the defensive backs jaming receivers.

    I have to say though that the Patriots still will take what the defense gives them. If they're playing a team that has good defensive backs and safeties but the front seven has soft spots then the Pats will take advantage. We saw some excellent examples of that last year. It's crazy to force something that doesn't work which is why your offense has to be balanced.

    On paper this defense just might be one of the better ones they've had in many years. What Babe says is true about BB inherited some special players but they didn't win a Super Bowl until BB took over as coach.

    Can't wait for the season to start...

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to RallyC's comment:

     

     


    Prolate, though there is clear truth to your statement, the problem is that total points scored in the league for the last 3-seasons in a row have set all-time records with that record now sitting at 11651 points scored in 2012. Since the Superbowl era began in 1966 there have been no higher totals of points scored in any primary statistical category, offensive or defensive, than what we have seen over these last three seasons.

     



    By any fair measure scoring in today's NFL is around one FG, if that, more than what has been typical for the entire SB era. And there are numerous seasons before that which are equal or exceed the recent scoring trend.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to RallyC's comment:

    With this trend, passing TDs have set all-time records the last two seasons while rushing TD totals have fallen through the floor.

     



    Actually, rushing TDs frequency in 2012 (or 2011-2010) have been very typical of those over the entire history of the NFL. Passing TDs for those years are only slightly up from the typical per game average.

    You can't just go by totals because there are more teams and more games than in the past.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    Here's the actual average scoring per team per game over the past 40 seasons. Over the whole period the average is 20.5 points per game per team.  Since 2007, there's been a jump of about 2 points per team per game on average.  It's significant (a 10% increase in scoring), but not as big as I think some people imagine.   

     

    Season  Avg Pts/ Game/ Team

     

    1973  19.5

    1974  18.2

    1975  20.6

    1976  19.2

    1977  17.2

    1978  18.3

    1979  20.1

    1980  20.5

    1981  20.7

    1982  20.2

    1983  21.8

    1984  21.2

    1985  21.5

    1986  20.5

    1987  20.2

    1988  20.3

    1989  20.6

    1990  20.1

    1991  19.0

    1992  18.7

    1993  18.7

    1994  20.3

    1995  21.5

    1996  20.4

    1997  20.7

    1998  21.3

    1999  20.8

    2000  20.7

    2001  20.2

    2002  21.7

    2003  20.8

    2004  21.5

    2005  20.6

    2006  20.7

    2007  21.7

    2008  22.0

    2009  21.5

    2010  22.0

    2011  22.2

    2012  22.8

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    Ya, as Babe said there were periods in the past where it was higher than 2012.

    The 70's were low due to the increase in rushing.  The smash mouth 70's are more an anomaly than not.


    "The worse New England has gotten on defense, the better Brady has been forced to become -- with 109 touchdowns, 20 interceptions and a 39-9 record the past three seasons. "

    CLARK JUDGE______7/13/13_____________________________________
                                  
                             

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    Defensive/offensive rankings of the last five SB champs:

    2012: 12/10

    2011: 25/9

    2010: 2/10

    2009: 20/1

    2008: 1/20

    Pretty random, offenses have a slight edge but it's not in any way conclusive.

    Championships are won by the team that outscores the opponent in the playoffs more than anyone else. That's about it. You can find stats that support whatever argument you care to make, but that's what it boils down to. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RallyC. Show RallyC's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to Muzwell's comment:

     

    Defensive/offensive rankings of the last five SB champs:

    2012: 12/10

    2011: 25/9

    2010: 2/10

    2009: 20/1

    2008: 1/20

    Pretty random, offenses have a slight edge but it's not in any way conclusive.

    Championships are won by the team that outscores the opponent in the playoffs more than anyone else. That's about it. You can find stats that support whatever argument you care to make, but that's what it boils down to. 

     

    Muzz, don't look now but you just validated the point of my post. Your post shows that the last 4 Superbowl winners all had Top-10 Offenses. To the  contrary, only one had a top 10 Defense. YES, it does appear conclusive.  This lines up with the Offense first era. i'm not giving an opinion, only sharing factual info and the most logical conclusion. No guessing. 

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    In response to RallyC's comment:

    In response to Muzwell's comment:

     

    Defensive/offensive rankings of the last five SB champs:

    2012: 12/10

    2011: 25/9

    2010: 2/10

    2009: 20/1

    2008: 1/20

    Pretty random, offenses have a slight edge but it's not in any way conclusive.

    Championships are won by the team that outscores the opponent in the playoffs more than anyone else. That's about it. You can find stats that support whatever argument you care to make, but that's what it boils down to. 

     

    Muzz, don't look now but you just validated the point of my post. Your post shows that the last 4 Superbowl winners all had Top-10 Offenses. To the  contrary, only one had a top 10 Defense. YES, it does appear conclusive.  This lines up with the Offense first era. i'm not giving an opinion, only sharing factual info and the most logical conclusion. No guessing. 

     



    True, I'm not a defense wins guy by any means. Scoring more points wins.

    The common denominator with all those teams (and you could keep going way past 5 years) is strong QB play. Flacco, Eli, Rodgers, Brees, Ben, pretty strong. And the SB losers were OK as well: Kaepernick, Brady, Ben, Peyton, Warner.

    Better have a damn good QB to win anything of consequence in this league.  That's why Clowney will be picked after Bridgewater.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Defense wins championships after all . . .

    So Rusty was right all along... it's Brady's fault?

     
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