Defensive rankings

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Defensive rankings

    So, I was sitting here looking at the defensive totals from the Fin's, Oakland, and San Diego game, and I've noticed something. We tend to give up a lot of meaningless yards when we enter prevent defense in the fourth quarter due to large leads. For example in the 4th quarter: Vs. MIA: 3 Drives: 135 Yards, No score, Six minutes off clock 1 Drive, 74 Yards for a TD in garbage time (2:05 remaining) Vs. SD: 2 Drives: 30 Yards, no score, four minutes off the clock 1 Drive, 80 yards for a TD with 3:00 remaining. Vs. OAK: 3 drives: 78 Yards, No score, Five minutes taken off the clock. 1 Drive: 99 Yards with a TD in the last two minutes of a game. This puts Oaklands total yards at 504, when you take out the meaningless three drives that didn't end in a score, you take out 78 yards, and that last drive was for show, the game wasn't in doubt. It seems like everyone and their mother are complaining about the number of yards given up, when it seems that it serves the purpose to run out the clock. All three wins had teams score a TD in garbage time, and add on a bunch of meaningless yards that didn't come away with scores. I feel that our defense has actually played pretty well, for example you take away the fourth quarter garbage drives in the Oakland game and Oakland only has 327 Combined yards, which is great. As well, if you do that against MIA, they only go for about 230 Combined yards, which is another great effort. Finally, Even the SD game shows they give up about 350 combined yards. While that isn't great, it still shows that our DEF is mostly doing extremely well when it matters, and in garbage time is willing to sacrifice stats such as lower total yards to allow for opponents to run off the clock. Sorry for the wall of text, and while I didn't analyze the Buffalo game, I felt that this theory holds at least some water.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]So, I was sitting here looking at the defensive totals from the Fin's, Oakland, and San Diego game, and I've noticed something. We tend to give up a lot of meaningless yards when we enter prevent defense in the fourth quarter due to large leads. For example in the 4th quarter: Vs. MIA: 3 Drives: 135 Yards, No score, Six minutes off clock 1 Drive, 74 Yards for a TD in garbage time (2:05 remaining) Vs. SD: 2 Drives: 30 Yards, no score, four minutes off the clock 1 Drive, 80 yards for a TD with 3:00 remaining. Vs. OAK: 3 drives: 78 Yards, No score, Five minutes taken off the clock. 1 Drive: 99 Yards with a TD in the last two minutes of a game. This puts Oaklands total yards at 504, when you take out the meaningless three drives that didn't end in a score, you take out 78 yards, and that last drive was for show, the game wasn't in doubt. It seems like everyone and their mother are complaining about the number of yards given up, when it seems that it serves the purpose to run out the clock. All three wins had teams score a TD in garbage time, and add on a bunch of meaningless yards that didn't come away with scores. I feel that our defense has actually played pretty well, for example you take away the fourth quarter garbage drives in the Oakland game and Oakland only has 327 Combined yards, which is great. As well, if you do that against MIA, they only go for about 230 Combined yards, which is another great effort. Finally, Even the SD game shows they give up about 350 combined yards. While that isn't great, it still shows that our DEF is mostly doing extremely well when it matters, and in garbage time is willing to sacrifice stats such as lower total yards to allow for opponents to run off the clock. Sorry for the wall of text, and while I didn't analyze the Buffalo game, I felt that this theory holds at least some water.
    Posted by reuben4boston[/QUOTE]

    I also wanted to add this, which is an explanation of my personal view of meaningless yards"  Meaningless yards are yards in the fourth quarter, when a team is up by two scores, that do not end in points. As well, meaningless yards can occur when a team scores points in the final four minutes when losing by 17 or more points. 17 because that is three possessions. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from amun. Show amun's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    Completely agree with you and I understand your point.

    But, Why not send 5-6-7 ppl in, you know they are going to pass. Play 1 safety over the top and rush the passer. get the ball back and run the ball. please look at what Baltimore did last night, Flaco tossed a pick-6 and they ran the ball the next 12 plays, ate up clock and demoralized the Jets. you minimize the "junk yards" and you get to see your players in situations at somepoint you will be in a tight game and need a passrush. It's like the Pats defenders get lazy out there once we have a big lead.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    Well it's not that they get lazy. It's that we really do play the classic prevent defense. Which allows for easy routes but seals off the homerun pass and running out of bounds. And while an offense can chew up yards and clock, our offense has had problems sealing the deal in the fourth quarter. Teams go all out in the fourth to slow our offense down, and make it so we rarely have big gains or first downs, but their offense is often just as slow, except we don't allow them to stop the clock. It's a great strategy.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from amun. Show amun's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    It is. I dont like going into the prevent in the 3rd Qt. Its way to early. I think BB is afraid to score 60 on a team. It's thier job to stop us, not ours to stop us. Raiders game really should of been 45 to 10. we went prevent way to early. the D is showing signs of life.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    It is. I dont like going into the prevent in the 3rd Qt. Its way to early. I think BB is afraid to score 60 on a team. It's thier job to stop us, not ours to stop us. Raiders game really should of been 45 to 10. we went prevent way to early. the D is showing signs of life.
    Posted by amun


    While I do agree that we tend to go into prevent way too early, for fear of scoring 60 points, I would much rather avoid scoring that much because of the incessant whining we always hear about running up the score. While I do agree, the opponents are paid to stop the pat's, I am getting quite sick of always having to hear everyone else whine about us scoring so much. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    I also just did this research on PSD, and found the 1st 3 quarters/4th quarter splits staggering. 



    In the MIA game They gave up an average of 83.3 yards/quarter for the first three quarters, only to let MIA have 200 yards in the fourth. 

    In the last game, they gave up an average 109 yards/quarter for the first three. And then gave up 177 Yards in the fourth. 

    In the SD game, they gave up 120/quarter for the first three, and then 111 in the 4th. However, SD had drives of 75YDs, 51YDs, and 77YDS that ended in a fourth and goal stop, and two interceptions. Empty Yards. 

    Even in the Buffalo game they gave up 101.33/quarter, and then 167 in the fourth. While the prevent didn't work as well in that game, it is still a noticeable bump in production from the first three quarters to the fourth.

    In all the games, everything that made you say my argument was null and void wasn't. They give up on average 61 more yards in the fourth, which is a huge chunk of yardage.

    EDIT: And after looking at the NFL statistics, had the Pat's not gone into prevent and continued the previous 3 quarter trends, they would be, on average, giving up about 410 yards a game. Which wouldn't be a huge jump ranking wise, but would take the patriots out of last place, and also get rid of about 60 yards a game on average.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Macrawn. Show Macrawn's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    That may be true, but in every game I've watched they have not been able to stop anybody except inside the red zone, inflated 4th quarter numbers or not. 

    Last year's d was similar. They survived by somehow coming up with big plays and turnovers. The d wasn't consistent and gave up lemons when they couldn't pull in the big play. It killed them in the playoffs and it will kill them again in the playoffs if they don't start finding ways to shut down opposing teams without depending on a mistake. 

    It seems to take about 4 games for the D to come around and I expect they will be better over the next 5 games.
     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    How does that compare to other teams in the fourth quarter? It seems to me that every NFL game has a lot of offense towards the end game when teams have to score.

    Even if you went with the 410 yard number (assuming the kept their first through third quarter pace for full games) that would only move the defense up to 29th in terms of yards per game.

    This defense is not the "bend, but don't break" thing people are pretending it is. It is bend and hope the offense screws up.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    Has it occurred to you that other team's Ds have garbage time yards against them too? You're using UD6 logic here.

    Was the 4th quarter of the jets playoff loss garbage time when the D allowed 14 points? How about when the O tied the Bills game and the Bills went through our D like a hot knife through butter in the last two minutes, was that garbage time? Or when Brady threw the would be winning score to Moss against the Giants then Samuel dropped the Lombardi trophy and the D allowed a mediocre QB to march for the win in the last minute; garbage time there?

    Living in denial isn't going to change the reality this D blows.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]That may be true, but in every game I've watched they have not been able to stop anybody except inside the red zone, inflated 4th quarter numbers or not.  Last year's d was similar. They survived by somehow coming up with big plays and turnovers. The d wasn't consistent and gave up lemons when they couldn't pull in the big play. It killed them in the playoffs and it will kill them again in the playoffs if they don't start finding ways to shut down opposing teams without depending on a mistake.  It seems to take about 4 games for the D to come around and I expect they will be better over the next 5 games.
    Posted by Macrawn[/QUOTE]


    A quick look at the stats already shows that this line of thinking is wrong. New England has forced a punt or a turnover on downs outside of the redzone 23 out of the 42 drives it has faced. Which makes it 55%. That includes two kneeldowns to end the half, which by taking those out, would account for 21 out of 40 drives, which is still 53%.

    New england has allowed TD drives, including 3 Garbage time TD's, 9 Times, which accounts for 21% of the time.

    New England has had them settle for a field goal, or a TO on downs, or a turnover, 10 times out of the 42. which is 24%. So they are coming up big when their opponents are in scoring position. However, Oppenents do not enter the red zone very often, 14/42 drives, which equates to 33% of the drives, but have had 2 TO on downs, and 2 TO in hte redzone, which equate to 14% a piece. So 30% of the time an opponent enters our 20 yard line, we stop them completely. Which is great. As well, we have forced 2 FG's, which is another 14%, so roughly 45% of the time our opponents enter the RZ, they don't get TD's, which is great. However, they only enter the RZ about 33%, so our Defense is doing a good job to keep them out of crucial scoring position.
     
     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]Has it occurred to you that other team's Ds have garbage time yards against them too? You're using UD6 logic here. Was the 4th quarter of the jets playoff loss garbage time when the D allowed 14 points? How about when the O tied the Bills game and the Bills went through our D like a hot knife through butter in the last two minutes, was that garbage time? Or when Brady threw the would be winning score to Moss against the Giants then Samuel dropped the Lombardi trophy and the D allowed a mediocre QB to march for the win in the last minute; garbage time there? Living in denial isn't going to change the reality this D blows.
    Posted by BabeParilli[/QUOTE]


    I was pretty clear this only applies to right now. This season. If you can't read that, don't bother. It's clear you've already failed comprehension.
     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]How does that compare to other teams in the fourth quarter? It seems to me that every NFL game has a lot of offense towards the end game when teams have to score. Even if you went with the 410 yard number (assuming the kept their first through third quarter pace for full games) that would only move the defense up to 29th in terms of yards per game. This defense is not the "bend, but don't break" thing people are pretending it is. It is bend and hope the offense screws up.
    Posted by FrnkBnhm[/QUOTE]

    And yes, that would move them up to 29th. But it wouldn't make talking heads scream that this is the worst defense evar!!!! (As stated by plenty of clueless fans on here) because we are giving up 50 more yards a game compared to everyone else. And yes, according to the statistics I just posted, this is bend but dont break. They have done an extremely good job in the redzone, as well as in any scoring position, as well as forcing a punt 40% of the time, which is well above worst defense quality.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Defensive rankings : You are by far the best new member on this board. WELCOME!
    Posted by RidingWithTheKing[/QUOTE]

    I've actually been here since 2006, but usually ignore posting because of the abundance of trolls.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Evil2012. Show Evil2012's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]Has it occurred to you that other team's Ds have garbage time yards against them too? You're using UD6 logic here. Was the 4th quarter of the jets playoff loss garbage time when the D allowed 14 points? How about when the O tied the Bills game and the Bills went through our D like a hot knife through butter in the last two minutes, was that garbage time? Or when Brady threw the would be winning score to Moss against the Giants then Samuel dropped the Lombardi trophy and the D allowed a mediocre QB to march for the win in the last minute; garbage time there? Living in denial isn't going to change the reality this D blows.
    Posted by BabeParilli[/QUOTE]

    yeah holding Oakland to their lowest point total this year and holding the leagues leading rusher to a paltry 75 yards ( 41 on one play ) really sucks. Now it time for you to wave the total yards stats because that's certainly more important than the win loss record.

    PS.. that loss is owned by Brady and no one else
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Defensive rankings : I've actually been here since 2006, but usually ignore posting because of the dearth of trolls.
    Posted by reuben4boston[/QUOTE]

    You don't post much because we don't have enough trolls?
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Defensive rankings : I was pretty clear this only applies to right now. This season. If you can't read that, don't bother. It's clear you've already failed comprehension.
    Posted by reuben4boston[/QUOTE]



    I'm comprehending that maybe the D will get better. Maybe it will get worse, though that hardly seems possible.


    But your point seemed to be that in the games we have played much of the ungodly yardage given up was during garbage time. I pointed out that since it is a comparison to other Ds you must consider that most of their yardage totals include garbage time numbers too. Are you comprehending that?
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from reuben4boston. Show reuben4boston's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Defensive rankings : I'm comprehending that maybe the D will get better. Maybe it will get worse, though that hardly seems possible. But your point seemed to be that in the games we have played much of the ungodly yardage given up was during garbage time. I pointed out that since it is a comparison to other Ds you must consider that most of their yardage totals include garbage time numbers too. Are you comprehending that?
    Posted by BabeParilli[/QUOTE]


    FIrst, let me apologize for insulting you. However, it seems you don't understand my point. My point is not that this is a number one or a top ten ranked defense. I was quite clear on that. However, what you're not getting, is the fifteen to twenty teams above us aren't in the same situation. They aren't going into prevent mid third quarter. We are. Because we are up above 21 points. The teams that are directly above us have given up garbage time yards, but not because they are ahead. They have given up yards because they are behind. Miami. Chicago, Oakland, Buffalo, Saint Louis. Green Bay is in a similar situation to us, and are number 30. But they aren't receiving flak because they aren't dead last. The teams I named haven't gone into prevent much this season, save for Buffalo against KC, which is another D that by the numbers is better, but let's be honest, they are not. As well, Indy, and KC are two teams that we are better than defensively due to my numbers, but according to Yardage we are not. THis is because they have faced teams that don't rack up a lot of yards. KC did face Buff once, but hasn't had a real test other than that. Indy has been on the wrong side of lopsided losses. Their garbage time stats against still count, because the other team isn't trying to score at will against them. As well, if Indy is down by 24, they aren't going into a prevent. On average, our prevent Defense starts much earlier because we have them down by 3 possessions. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    Reuben makes some excellent points as many folks here are too focused on numbers and not the end results.  Even teams like GB, Saints, Steelers, Jets and others with Ds supposedly BETTER than the Pats aren't exactly playing lights out D all the time.  Making the stops at the right time and keeping the other team from scoring more points than your team leads to Ws.  I am not aware of victories being awarded to the team who happen to have great offensive stats but not the points!!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Defensive rankings

    In Response to Re: Defensive rankings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Defensive rankings : yeah holding Oakland to their lowest point total this year and holding the leagues leading rusher to a paltry 75 yards ( 41 on one play ) really sucks. Now it time for you to wave the total yards stats because that's certainly more important than the win loss record. PS.. that loss is owned by Brady and no one else
    Posted by Evil2012[/QUOTE]

    Yeah, we held McFadden to 5.4 yards a carry and the Raiders to nearly 150 yards on the ground. Great D, LOL.

    And that superstar QB Campbell we held to only 344 yards.

    Just face it. The Raiders shot themselves in the foot a couple times to make the D look a little better.
     

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