Re: Does "critiquing" the Patriots by fans serve a necessary purpose in our lives?
posted at 1/24/2012 10:48 AM EST
I critique because my point spread forecasting is dependable enough that I might actually get paid someday for doing this. The Globe doesn't know what it has here. No, I don't have a useful point spread forecast for the one remaining game, but usually I do. I've racked up a fearsome record, among the best forecasting records on earth paid or unpaid, over the past 2 years and I keep getting better. I need the practice of putting things down where everyone can see them, because only by committing myself do I make clear mistakes, eat humble pie, and get better.
People regularly call my numbers crazy on this board. Nothing to do but let next Sunday come around.
for example, here comes another forecast:
My exclusive Super Bowl power ratings
Power ranking / team / current power rating out of 16 victories / last week
1 ne 13.5 (last wk. 1)
3 gb 12.4 (last wk. 4)
4 sf 11.9 (last wk. 3)
6 nyg 11.8 (last wk. 6)
7 bal 10.8 (last wk. 7)
The Giants have been rising with each monster team they squeeze by. They’re still below #1 New England but they get credit. New England should have cruised better against Baltimore but they didn’t. They won but didn’t show any particular strength. So the forecast is for a tight game, and New England has the best chance to win.
My Super Bowl point spread
teams / my points / the betting public’s points / difference
ne nyg New England –2.5 New England –3 difference 0.5
With a difference of 0.5 points between my forecast and the casino line, I’d take the house vigorish to win the point spread game. Gambling is for people who don’t understand mathematics.
Dome advantage: none.
Slight playoff experience advantage: New England. Getting beaten down the last two playoff years in a row in playoff games keeps players on the serious side. The Giants missed the playoffs in 2009 and 2010, and has had a reasonable amount of turnover from the 2007 Super Bowl team, so expect a few wide-eyed kids caught up in the TV camera glare.
Slight injury recovery advantage: New England. 2 weeks might get those 14 players away from “questionable” to “probable” or better.
Preparation advantage: probably none. Coughlin is of the Bill Belichick school and will be preparing about as well as BB and staff. BB is legendary in his preparation advantages, but the Patriots rely on the hurryup, which is a bit gimmicky and which can be somewhat prepared for in 2 weeks better than in 1 week. Not much can prepare a team for covering Welker and two tight ends – it’s an automatic mismatch. If you don’t already have the personnel to match up, then the guys you have are not exactly going to grow any bigger in 2 weeks. In a year or two a division opponent can draft specific guys to cover these particular people a bit better, but as for right now, no dice. The Giants can try smoke and mirrors just like everyone else did.
Offense/defense matchups: Slight advantage to New York. The strength of the Giants is in picking apart defenses with three big receivers, and New England doesn’t have the best defensive backfield, although they have gotten better as the year has progressed. The weakness of the Giants is their cardboard offensive line that let just about everyone in to go see Eli last week. San Fran had 44 total pressures in the game, and the Giants passing game disappeared in the second half as Eli started to feel the pressure.