I mean this on both sides. First thing I want to say is: Welker is better with the Patriots and the Patriots are better with Welker. But I have a couple of questions about the possibility of resigning him

From Welker's perspective:

1. 4 of the past 5 seasons he's had over 100 recs and 1000 yards. Yards are yards, whether they come from the outside or the slot...that is top receiver money.

2. He takes more big hits going up the middle than any receiver that I can remember. He's a small guy who is getting up there in age. Not inconceivable that those hits will affect his long term health and this is probably his last big contract. Why take a pay cut?

3. Almost any team will take him. Especially with the amount of young QBs, I feel like teams will view Welker as a great safety blanket for young QBs.

 

Patriots perspective:

1. They have invested a fair amount of money already on 4 offensive players in Gronk, Hernandez, Brady, Mankins. Lloyd is making a fair amount of money as well.

2. Defense is full of holes and will need upgrades. I wouldn't mind seeing more money spent there for depth.

3. If Welker wants at least a 3 year deal, Edelman, Chung, Spikes, Ridley, McCourty will all need new contracts. Edelman is an interesting prosect because he has not proven much as a WR...but does he come back if Welker resigns? I am sure at least one other team will pay him to be a poor man's Welker. I do not think Chung deserves a big contract, but due to the lack of quality safety's in the league, he can probably get money elsewhere. Spikes is the player I am most interested in seeing how the Pats deal with him.

 

Losing Welker would hurt the team. But so did losing Law, Milloy, Seymour, Samuel and every other great Pat has hurt the team...yet they still remain competitive.

So my questions are:

What is the Patriots current cap situation? (I honestly don't know)

What do you think the market for Welker will be/ does he take a hometown discount?

Is the potential money Welker will make better invested in Welker or in other players?

 

My opinion: Welker would not be worth it unless he gave the pats a discount. The offense will suffer a bit without Welker...but I have trouble believing it still would not be a top 5-10 offense with Gronk, lloyd, Hernandez, Ridley and Brady.

 

Agree? Disagree? Thoughts?

Before the year I'd say yes but right now I'm not sure. With the addition of the running game and running mostly 2 TE snaps, along with Fells proving to be a very capable blocker I'm starting to wonder if Welker is now the 3rd or even 4th option. It seems like Gronk and when health Hern might be option #1-2 with Lloyd being 3rd or 4th as Lloyd is always on the field and Welker is flexed out with Edelman and Branch in certain 2 TE sets.

If that's the case then you could make a strong argument that $9mil is not worth spending on a #3/4 option when you have a strong running game. At that point the trade off becomes whether you put that money to enhance another weak spot on the team and if that extra money improves that weakness more then the drop off between Welker to Edelman as a #3/4 option.

If money wasn't a factor then of course it makes sense but since both money and age are factors I'm going to have to go with no for right now

In response to PatsEng's comment:

Well speaking of RIGHT NOW, i think you have to look at Welker as the number 1 option. 31 Targets since Edelman went down if I'm not mistaken.

But that being said. I agree about Gronk and Hernandez. And believe that if you did not intend on those two to be the top options, then they should not have given them those contracts. It would be nice to have 4 top receiving options (Lloyd, Welker, Hernandez, Gronk)...but I just don't see how it would be financially feasible.

 

Lots of great players get let go not because of their performance, but because of their asking price. 

In response to dapats1281's comment:

Well of course right now he's the #1 option lol. But that's with both Edelman and Hern on the side lines and Gronk not at 100%. When you have all 3 healthy then Welkers reps will drop dramatically. Not to the 3 rec game in week 1 but I doubt he'd get 13 again. Most likely in the 5-7 range which is about right for a #3 option. Like I said all things being equal I'd much rather have Welker in a heartbeat but they aren't equal and they just paid 2 TE's top end salaries so obviously the O is going to run through them one way or another when they are on the field. That leaves plenty of plays left for other plays but not for Welkers asking price unless that suddenly drops in price

I think Welker finishes the year strong and gets some competitive offers in FA that take him out of the running to return here.  I wish it wasn't the case, but as stated the two mega contracts to the TEs means that Wes isn't getting a sweetheart deal to stay here. 

He will earn a big contract (bigger than he'll get here) and will be gone in my opinion.  There are a number of teams that could use a Wes Welker at 3 years and 7-8 per.  Don't think he gets that here. 

Yes.  New England has about 14 million worth of dead money coming off the books next season and nothing in the Gronk and Hern extensions or Brady's restructuring leads me to believe that they won't have plenty of cap room this offseason.  The guy looks as good as ever and given that Hern and Edelman can't seem to stay healthy for a full season I don't see why we can't pay him and still be fine from a cap perspective.  We don't have a ton of people coming up for new contracts this offseason and BB hasn't signed a "marquee" free agent since Adalius Thomas.  Don't get me wrong I love our new running game a lot, but I think having as many options as we do in the passing game forces defenses to run a lot of nickel which gives us a huge edge when running the ball.  Unless the guy is asking for an outrageous contract (and there isn't any evidence he is that I have seen) then I think we should pony up.  Hell we're willing to pay him almost 10 million this year.  If we're worried about years offer him a shorter, but hugely frontloaded contract using all the freed up money we'll have after this season.

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Tough question - if he was younger I think it would be a no brainer for us or anyone, but he's going to be 32. On one hand you watch him play the last three weeks and it's obvious he's still got that quickness, but I've seen him wear down at the end of seasons and be less effective - that's probably going to get worse as he gets even older.

You know he's not going to take a discount...franchise him again? Can we do that two years in a rowl with the new collective bargaining agreement? He'd get big bucks for those two years and we won't be sadled with a long term contract on an aging player.

In response to mthurl's comment:

He can be franchised a second time with an increase in his pay. It's 20% for the second year and 44% for the third. So if the franchise value for a WR remained at 9.4 mil he'd get approx 11 1/4 mil next season. The problem is that the big cap increase doesn't take effect until the 2014 so if we franchise him again everyone can forget picking up a quality CB free agent.

He's got 2 maybe 3 years of being a top end guy.  I'd sign him on a 2 year contract in a heartbeat if I could.

In response to Mighty2013's comment:

Ditto!

I trust BB will do right with the players he has had the opportunity to have on his team. His record of assessing players he has actually coached is remarkable. The draft, not so much, though he has had his hits.

N

I say whatever BB thinks. He's the best GM out there and will do what's best for the team. These we tough decisions but as good as Welker  is we have to remember that there is a salary cap and he's going to be 32 years old. If he was only 26-28 I'd say yes but at 32 I doubt it unless it were only a 2 year deal.

Yeah, I'd offer him two more years at about the same pay

A couple of points, and yes, I am a glass-is-half-full guy...

It is still very early in the season, both the offense and defense are still evolving into what they will be at the end of the year. They are experimenting with various combinations on both sides of the ball.

Defensively, we saw Dennard, Wilson and Ras-I this past Sunday, and they held their own. We have already seen Jones appear to be a dominant player, most people are very high on Hightower, and even Cunningham has been contributing. Spikes, Mayo and Nink have very good at the least. There has not been one game this year where the full defense has been healthy and everyone played. The front seven has been very good against the run, I would still like to see more pressure on the opposing QBs, which will help the secondary (I know there are people who are down on them, but they held Peyton-Freakin-Manning to 21 points). To say this defense is full of holes and will need a makeover is just not right.

Offensively they have absolutely dominant for stretches, and again, have not had the full cache of weapons for the most part all year. When Hernandez comes back, things will only get better since TB already has the connection with him that is lacking with Wells right now. The O-line has played much better than most people expected, and has been phenomenal in the running game. Back to back 200 yard rushing games! Who woulda thunk it after last year?? One of the main reasons for this, Wes Welker. His past 3 games - 30 catches for 375 yards and a TD. He is the biggest reason defenses HAVE to stay in nickel or dime packages against the Pats. All the guy does is make plays and open things up for everyone else. Damn right I'd resign him...

Plus, he's the only guy with the balls to 'stick it to Bill every once in a while'...

In response to BabeParilli's comment:

Hey there jints, about time to change to UD6 ain't it?

Tool!l

sign him pay him play him media sftu about him

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In response to shenanigan's comment:

Doesn't he want 3 years minimum?

I'm a huge Welker fan and would love to see him on the team over the next couple of years but I don't see it happening.  He will be too expensive from a BB perspective.  Hate to see him go but don't see him staying.  The Gronk/Hernan investments make it pretty clear that is the direction the team is headed.

In response to ATJ's comment:

Do you see him getting franchised again for 11 mil +  ?

Welker is a big reason the running game has worked so well the past two games.  The fact that Welker has been almost unstoppable has forced defenses to keep playing with five or more DBs.  That, in turn, has created a very soft front to run against.  

I'm not sure re-signing Welker makes sense, but right now Welker is a big reason for the offense's success.  

In response to kansaspatriot's comment:

Would he take that? Probably not. Of course if the Pats could sign him to a 2 year deal they probably would.

Remember...this is nearing the end of the line for Welker. Just because something works in the plans for the pats doesn't necessarily mean it will work for him. I don't know what he plans to do post-playing, but I'm sure he's going to try and maximize what he can get in his last contract. He made 18 million over 5 years in his last contract...Severly underpaid compared to what other WRs are making.

 

 

In response to 15315k's comment:

Hi Rusty. Get a life.