Re: Draft 5
posted at 4/9/2009 10:55 AM EDT
A few thoughts on trading, next year's draft, and areas of need
Last year, the Eagles traded with the Panthers as follows:
No. 19: Eagles to Panthers. Philadelphia traded its first-round selection to Carolina for Carolina's second- and fourth-round selections in 2008 (No. 43 and 109), and Carolina's first-round pick in 2009.
Keep this in mind while we look at the following value chart. http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
Pick 19 is worth 875. 43 is worth 470. 109 is worth 76. Carolina's pick the following year, number 28, is worth 660. Do the math: 470 + 76 + 660 = 1206. This is clearly worth far more than 875.
Dallas has no first rounder this year, only a second (51). They seem like the kind of team willing to trade up into the 20s in order to get a better player than they could hope for at 51. So just like the above trade, let's do the math and compare value.
Pick 23 is worth 760. 51 is worth 390. 101 is 96. Next year's first rounder, assuming an average season of 8-8 (Dallas has averaged 9 wins per season the past 5 years, and 8 wins a season the past ten years; I think this is a decent projection), will give us a pick between 14 - 18. Let's go with 16, which is worth a whopping 1000 points. Do the math: 1486.
Dallas is just arrogant enough to assume they'll make the playoffs next year, dropping the value of their first rounder. Even if the win the Super Bowl, though, 32 is still worth 590. That's 1076. Either way, we gain value according to points.
Bear with me, guys. There's a point to this exercise. I really believe that any potential player we could pick up at 23 would either 1) still be available at 34, or 2) not
significantly more talented than the 34th pick.
34, 47, 51, and 58 sound pretty good to me. Also, I'd love to flip 58 for another first next year. We may have to package another pick with the second (maybe 6th and 7th rounders, which we need to get rid of anyway? worst-case scenario it's our 4th rounder), but it's still very much worth it. That would enable us to get three very good players, who would probably be role players this year and starters by next year, as well as position us for a major haul in 2010.
Players to target in '10:
Eric Berry (assuming he comes out early)
The above trades are fairly reasonable, have historical precedent, and allow us to head into next year with a chance to significant upgrade positions of need. I think it's a win-win situation.
This year our only real needs are pass rush and secondary help. We could use depth on our OL and DL, and should look 2-3 years out for WR and RB. Otherwise, we're pretty solid at every position, and we should attempt to come out of this draft with the highest quality players available. I really believe we need to stress quality over quantity this year, and push our extra picks into next year where they bring us a greater return on investment.
So where does that leave us? Well, let's discuss. I've talked enough for one post.