Draft 5

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pyegian. Show pyegian's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    If they do take a CB in the first round, and I'm not convinced that should be the route they take, I would take Darius Butler over Vontae Davis in a heartbeat.  Maybe Davis has more upside, but I like Butler's polished game a lot more.  Davis' bust potential seems huge.

    Bozo, I agree that O-line is a definite need, but I don't see that being the Pats 1st round selection, for 2 reasons: for one, the value on offensive lineman this year is early round 1, and in round 2.  Mid to late 1st round is a bit of a gap in o-line value, in my opinion.  Second, Dante Scarnecchia is great at developing mid round offensive lineman into very solid starters.  Granted, they took Mankins in the first round and he is clearly the best of the bunch, but even that was at pick #32.

    I like guys like Duke Robinson, Jamon Meredith, and Andy Levitre in rounds 2-3.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Faucetman. Show Faucetman's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Well Mike Wright is Wilfork's back up at nose and he's 6-4, 295.  Wright has started at NT when Wilfork was hurt and/or suspended.  Hood at 6-3, 300 would be seemingly an upgrade to Wright.  Officially Wilfork is 6-2, 325 and I think we all agree we don't have a better solution for Wilfork.  That's why we have to re-sign him.  Seymour is 6-6, 310.  I think Hood can play either position but obviously I'd be surprised if he plays at the same high level as those two guys.

    I'd be pretty happy with Ayers too at #23 and maybe even Laurinaitis but would like to see him drop to 34
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    I kind of like Pat White as a wildcat QB on third and 1 foot, when Brady is diving into a one ton wall of bodies and getting beat up for nothing.  Also, White is good for the no-wedge rule, as the Pats can have two mini-wedges and maybe White can lateral it across the field.  The Patriots really need to draft a third QB of moderate talent, either fast or big, with a work ethic, and after that probably not much, can't throw long like Brady, never started in college like Cassel, never saw a football pad before in his life like Steve Neal, maybe injured but recovering, the usual Patriots problem children.

    Other than that, really, I don't know what the scouts see, either good or bad.  Just a wild guess, Georgia Tech DE/LB Johnson at least is strong.

    The actual draft numbers won't look the least bit like #23, #34, #47, #58.  I can at least predict that two of those numbers will jump forward about 5 slots,  one number will jump backward 5 slots, and one number will jump into 2010.  How's that for a call?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from garytx. Show garytx's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    IM still thinking the 1st pick will be traded.so at pick 34 im thinking Larry english,or connor barwin.
    Posted by mosseffect43


    I have a feeling this will happen to.  There just is nothing at #23 to get jazzed up about.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from KyleCleric2. Show KyleCleric2's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    It would be interesting to see if the top 3 QBs really go in the top 10 like Reiss suggests. How about Stafford at 1, Sanchez at 4, and Freeman at 8 ... I'd feel bad for Stafford and the Jags in this scenario. On the otherhand, Sanchez and the Seahawks could be a dominant tandem for a long time. I'd guess Monroe at 2 and Curry at 3 then, though, both teams could look to move down as some team may want to move up for their player if they rate Monroe, JSmith, Curry, Crabtree, or Sanchez higher than others.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Yeah Faucet,

    That is sort of the point. I said in a pinch. There is no doubt as a backup he could be better than Wright. But I would think he would be a fiver here as his every day role.

    And being frank, no one in this year's draft or last years draft looks like Sey. Really, no one since Sey was drafted.

    And while Raji could mostcertainly be a dominant nose, getting him is going to cost as much as just keeping Fork.

    So I see a reason to go after both guys to re-up.

    I still don't get the Ayers hype, he was neither the big play maker in college, nor the kind of athlete that I think warrants that pick. I know he has looked great in Lber drills, but I wonder how much is just hype, considering there is a laundry list of players with much better track records ahead of him.

    But a Tennessee Vols reunion would be interesting to say the least.

    Did Ne bring him in for a workout?

    The more I look at it, unless someone falls I can't help but feel Ne might be forced to go offense at #23.

    Darius Butler is an option there. But do they want to go CB at #23?

    Pettigrew, Britton, best WR. Maybe a Tyson Jackson if he slips or Rey Maualuga?

    After looking for guys that manage to trickle down, the rest is starting to feel like plotting emergency selections.

    I wouldn't be suprised to see Ne trade #23 down into the second or very low first either picking up a second round selection for next year.

    But I have trouble seeing who would take. Bottom of the first, top of the second. Who has a need to move up? Maybe the Titans want a better WR than #30 allows and would shift a future second or third to take a crack at someone like Harvin if they are there?

    That would solve a lot of problems, as a #30 is a lot easier to use than a #23.


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ush. Show ush's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Hey ya'll,

    Just happy to be back up and running...haven't seen any complaints about the new board so apparently it's working well...or at least better than the last junk heap.

    @ 23 I like Darius Butler, unless Maualuga slips, but didn't he flunk the Wonderlic? With the amount of dough CB/DB's make nowadays it would seem like a good way to pre-empt the impending FA of Hobbs/Bodden and also to give us great depth short term. I don't need to recount the # of times we've had scrap head DB's starting for us in the playoffs or before for that matter.

    @ 34
      I still hope we take Barwin...versatile as a mofo. I could even see him potentially stepping inside and catching TD's on offense. 

    @47  It seems like Jarrod Gilbert is the right size to play on our line, but I don't know a whole lot about him.

    @58  Jamon Meredith or the best available Safety.

    After that we should grab (in no particular order) a WR, RB, TE and the Safety or OLineman we didn't get @ 58.

    That's what I'm thinking today boys...good to be back reading all your postings!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from sonieboy. Show sonieboy's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Respect all the post, here is my take of the circumstances currently. There are several LB and linemen available in the draft and NE will pick up their share in the 2nd  round. They may address  their need of a LB in the first but my take is all these players visiting predraft looksees are mostly smoke screens. BB does the same thing every year but he is actually interested in only one or two. He also sent a message to current players when he sent Grable to KC, either play to your potential or be prepared to go somewhere else.
    The # 1 pick in this draft for NE may be a LB or Lineman but it won't be they'll take Pat White or trade their #23 for two later draft picks or Pat White. He's versatile may be utilized as a RB, WR or QB smoke and screens at this point. It's who's available at #23, #34 and #47 and thier immediate need but watch White.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from reamer. Show reamer's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    A few thoughts on trading, next year's draft, and areas of need

    Last year, the Eagles traded with the Panthers as follows:

    No. 19: Eagles to Panthers. Philadelphia traded its first-round selection to Carolina for Carolina's second- and fourth-round selections in 2008 (No. 43 and 109), and Carolina's first-round pick in 2009.

    Keep this in mind while we look at the following value chart. http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

    Pick 19 is worth 875.  43 is worth 470. 109 is worth 76. Carolina's pick the following year, number 28, is worth 660. Do the math: 470 + 76 + 660 = 1206. This is clearly worth far more than 875.

    Dallas has no first rounder this year, only a second (51). They seem like the kind of team willing to trade up into the 20s in order to get a better player than they could hope for at 51. So just like the above trade, let's do the math and compare value.

    Pick 23 is worth 760. 51 is worth 390. 101 is 96. Next year's first rounder, assuming an average season of 8-8 (Dallas has averaged 9 wins per season the past 5 years, and 8 wins a season the past ten years; I think this is a decent projection), will give us a pick between 14 - 18. Let's go with 16, which is worth a whopping 1000 points. Do the math: 1486.

    Dallas is just arrogant enough to assume they'll make the playoffs next year, dropping the value of their first rounder. Even if the win the Super Bowl, though, 32 is still worth 590. That's 1076. Either way, we gain value according to points.

    Bear with me, guys. There's a point to this exercise. I really believe that any potential player we could pick up at 23 would either 1) still be available at 34, or 2) not significantly more talented than the 34th pick.

    34, 47, 51, and 58 sound pretty good to me. Also, I'd love to flip 58 for another first next year. We may have to package another pick with the second (maybe 6th and 7th rounders, which we need to get rid of anyway? worst-case scenario it's our 4th rounder), but it's still very much worth it. That would enable us to get three very good players, who would probably be role players this year and starters by next year, as well as position us for a major haul in 2010.

    Players to target in '10:

    Brandon Spikes
    Eric Berry (assuming he comes out early)
    Terrance Cody

    The above trades are fairly reasonable, have historical precedent, and allow us to head into next year with a chance to significant upgrade positions of need. I think it's a win-win situation.

    This year our only real needs are pass rush and secondary help. We could use depth on our OL and DL, and should look 2-3 years out for WR and RB. Otherwise, we're pretty solid at every position, and we should attempt to come out of this draft with the highest quality players available. I really believe we need to stress quality over quantity this year, and push our extra picks into next year where they bring us a greater return on investment.

    So where does that leave us? Well, let's discuss. I've talked enough for one post. Tongue out
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from patriots44. Show patriots44's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Time to get the draft talk going again.  Little more than 2 weeks away, and I'm getting excited. Players of note that have visited or are visiting the Pats over the past couple of weeks include Connor Barwin, Patrick Chung, William Moore, Louis Delmas, Evander Hood, Pat White, Jarron Gilbert, and Brooks Foster. Mocks seem to be all over the place, as do player rankings, and this could turn out as one of the more unpredictable drafts in recent memory. My new mock through 3 rounds: #23: Connor Barwin, OLB #34: Jarron Gilbert,  DE #47: D.J. Moore, CB #58: (Trade) #89: Andy Levitre, G #98: Austin Collie, WR
    Posted by pyegian

    Barwin will not go in the first round, Chung is too much like meriweather not too Physical.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Pats7393. Show Pats7393's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    FM,

    I don't think we can go wrong with either of those guys, Woods is rising up but I think it has to do with the amount of interest the Pats are showing which leads me to believe this is a smoke screen.  I don't thin BB will take Woods and its trying to get a team ahead of them draft him.

    His name has really come up since the Pats started looking at him, just sounds like BB playing mind games on the league.  I love it, this is why been a Pats fan during the season and off season is great.  You'll never know what you will get.  Draft day, I've been ask why sit there and watch such a boaring thing.  My answer this is the best reality show around lol.

    So Ayers would be who I think the Pats would target.

    http://www.thefootballexpert.com/robertayersDEtennessee.html

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from reamer. Show reamer's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Chung is too much like meriweather not too Physical.
    Posted by patriots44



    No offense, but you've clearly never watched Chung play. He might be the most physical safety I've seen in years. I think he hits better than Mays, in fact, because he's a form tackler while Mays just lowers his shoulder. Also, Chung outweighs Meriweather by a good 15 - 20 pounds.

    Check out this video to see some of the massive hits Chung has dished out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_37qMvwSMwo Watch especially around the 1:10 - 1:35 marks, where Chung levels two offensive linemen in one play. If that's not physical, I don't know what is. :)
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Faucetman. Show Faucetman's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Hood is a little small to play the Zero here in NE. Maybe in a pinch he could. But 300 lbs would be positively anemic to play nose on an every down basis. He can play 5-4-3, and Mizz had him lined up over the guard head up and between the guard and center, all the way out to the TE too, but I would stay away from leaving him head up on the center, mostly given his weight. At the worst, though, I think he might be a somewhat worse anchor against the run if compared head to head with Sey. But if anyone here got to watch him at Mizz they would understand what this kid looks like in pursuit. Heis fast and very, very nimble. He can actually pursue a QB, and won't have to rely on the engulfing that Seymour and Warren do. So maybe it would alter how NE palys their line a little. He reminds me of a young Warren Sapp. Like I said earlier this off-season. I think he is a better prospect than Glen Dorsey was last season. He is very under-rated at this point, and was never part of the machine that LSU was on defense. 36 reps is nothing to snuff at either. I wonder if it is even necessary to go at #23 for Hood though. There s every reason to assume that he is there at #34. I recognize that he is a swing first/second kid, but Idon't see a tremendous need there at the bottom.
    Posted by zbellino


    Z,

    As I said, I think Hood if taken would be groomed to replace Seymour, not Wilfork.  I think Sey will prove to be too expensive.  If you remember, the knock on Seymour coming out was that he was too tall and skinny to play 34 DE.  Hood at 6-3 is 2 inches shorter than Seymour and Warren but he weighs the same as Warren and should have better leverage being a little shorter.  I only mention Wilfork since he is also a question mark after 2009.  But, I hope and think Wilfork will come cheaper to re-sign than Seymour. 

    I disagree that Hood will not go in the first round.  I have him at 26 on my board.  If he's half the player Sapp was he's certain to go in the first.  Of the teams picking between 24 and 33, all but two need a DT or a DE.  I don't think Hood makes it past Atlanta at 24 or Indy at 27.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pyegian. Show pyegian's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Yeah, Chung is easily the most physical safety in this draft.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    DT/DE with one of the first four picks is possibility. The Pats still need a strong safety that's is more than just a one dimensional SS in the BOX.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dantehopkins. Show dantehopkins's posts

    I've been texting Bill.

    So I've given Bill a little advice over the past few years and needless to say as you can read in the Forbes article he hasn't accepted any of it and decided to let Pioli roll the dice with some duds but still grabbing some quality FAs and yes Hellmans.

    Now with Pioli out of the mix Bill has me on speed dial and I'll tell you how this will roll out but of course this is based solely on who SHOULD be available...  and of course why...

    But it is fun watching you Donks try and predict but this is how we're planning on rolling.

    How we've sketched it out so far:
    -------------------
    #23: William Moore, S - Harrison's gone and Meriweather is suspect.  This MFer can hit and run.
    #34: Trade down for a 1st and this years third.
    #47: Ron Brace, DT - this fat bast*rd is the nose when Big Willie chases the cash next year and a stud at that...
    #58: Andy Levitre, OG - Another prototypical white guy in reserve for a thinning herd.
    #89: Ramses Barden, WR - Tall with dumb-a$$ grin on his face that's good for TV, he has alot of potential.
    #98: Trade Down
    ------------------
    As for the rest it's a waste of time bc Bill will take the lead and I'm out of insight. 

    So there you go kids.  A top notch draft!!!

    And Barwin will be a bust!  We'll stick with Vet's and potential on the team to develop anymore LB's!

    PEAS!

    - me
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from pyegian. Show pyegian's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    1. William Moore will not be close to a first round pick.
    2. Barwin will not be a bust.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: I've been texting Bill.

    #23: William Moore, S - Harrison's gone and Meriweather is suspect.  This MFer can hit and run.



    You haven't watche him play, ever. Right?

    William Moore is an ankle biter at best. I have watched about every important Missouri game that last couple seasons, and seen all of his various highlight footage.

    He is NOT a hitter, and is a straight line runner.

    He won't get a sniff of the first round.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from pyegian. Show pyegian's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Kiper's latest mock:

    #23: Donald Brown, RB
    #34: Connor Barwin, OLB
    #47: Sean Smith, CB
    #58: Pat White, WR/QB
    #89: Cornelius Ingram, TE
    #98: Scott McKillop, ILB

    Interesting picks.  Can't say I'd be upset with a draft that netted Barwin and Smith in round 2, but there are better picks than Brown and White, in my opinion.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from bobomul. Show bobomul's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    A few thoughts on trading, next year's draft, and areas of need Last year, the Eagles traded with the Panthers as follows: No. 19: Eagles to Panthers. Philadelphia traded its first-round selection to Carolina for Carolina's second- and fourth-round selections in 2008 (No. 43 and 109), and Carolina's first-round pick in 2009.  Dallas has no first rounder this year, only a second (51). They seem like the kind of team willing to trade up into the 20s in order to get a better player than they could hope for at 51. So just like the above trade, let's do the math and compare value. Pick 23 is worth 760. 51 is worth 390. 101 is 96. Next year's first rounder, assuming an average season of 8-8 (Dallas has averaged 9 wins per season the past 5 years, and 8 wins a season the past ten years; I think this is a decent projection), will give us a pick between 14 - 18. Let's go with 16, which is worth a whopping 1000 points. Do the math: 1486. Dallas is just arrogant enough to assume they'll make the playoffs next year, dropping the value of their first rounder. Even if the win the Super Bowl, though, 32 is still worth 590. That's 1076. Either way, we gain value according to points. Bear with me, guys. There's a point to this exercise. I really believe that any potential player we could pick up at 23 would either 1) still be available at 34, or 2) not significantly more talented than the 34th pick. 34, 47, 51, and 58 sound pretty good to me. Also, I'd love to flip 58 for another first next year. We may have to package another pick with the second (maybe 6th and 7th rounders, which we need to get rid of anyway? worst-case scenario it's our 4th rounder), but it's still very much worth it. That would enable us to get three very good players, who would probably be role players this year and starters by next year, as well as position us for a major haul in 2010.  I've talked enough for one post.
    Posted by reamer


    Some wishful thinking there but you're on the right track.  No way NE drafts 11 players this year since there's no room to put them all.  Trading into next year is smart if you can do it for value.  But who is Dallas targeting that they would want the #23 so badly? Teams make these moves because a player higher on their board is still remaining at that spot - ALWAYS.  Maybe if Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin or Michael Oher is still sitting there at #23, Dallas makes that move: NE's 1st for DAL's #2, #4 and 2010 #1.  Maybe Houston is surprised Brian Cushing or Rey Maualuga is still stitting there at #23 and make the jump.  If someone's not willing to overpay because they love the player their getting, no deal gets made.

    Whether they do that type of deal or not, the Pats still have too many picks, so another trade is likely.  But NOBODY'S trading a future 1st for the #58.  Even the #47 is probably too high.  Remember, NE traded the #28 (first round pick) for SF's #1.  Indy traded for Jeff Ugoh at #42 for their 1st in 2008.  Obviously that was projected an end of year pick, lowering it's value. 

    Maybe the the #47 plus a 4th round from NE or the #58 plus NE's 3rd round could get that done and move into the 1st in 2010.  Washington lacks a 2nd and New Orleans lacks both a 2nd and a 3rd, so either might bite if somebody they like falls to those spots. 

    Or NE might think about trading their 3rd and 4th round picks for a 2010 2nd round pick (say to NO, DAL or WAS).   All of those moves generates value for the Pats in 2010.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from garytx. Show garytx's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    If Maualuga there at 23 I don't think we take him because that means that he is a two down LB.  There are rumors about him being a two down LB.  From what I know, and that ain't much, I see him as a three down LB and we would have to get in front of San Diego to get a chance at this guy.  But, if he drops to us at 23 that means the rumors are true.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Faucetman. Show Faucetman's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    I have to disagree with Kiper on a couple of things.  First I doubt we take a RB in the first.  I think we have to go defense there be it Hood, Ayers, Butler or Maualuga. 

    I agree that Barwin is a 2nd round pick and he likely won't last until #47.  He's an absolute physical freak and very much a BB player but he'll need time to develop into a quality OLB.  He's never played the position and has a lot to learn about dropping into coverage.  We have the luxury to take him play him a little at TE and perhaps as DE in some passing situations to use his speed.  In a couple of years he could become an excellent OLB.  If James Laurinaitis is there at #34 he'd be hard to pass on because he's more ready to contribute and it a position of equal or greater need.

    I would love Sean Smith at 47 just because of his height.  With TO now in the division it doesn't hurt to have a guy that can compete with the taller receivers.  It seems like every team has a 6-3+ guy on their team now.  I think Miami and NYJ have to be thinking about getting taller at CB.  Miami has a couple of taller guys but the Jets don't.

    I can't see Pat White lasting until #58 since the Jets go at 52 and Denver at 53.  If we want White, it is going to have to be at 47 unless we trade up from 58.

    If we draft Barwin, we don't need a TE since Barwin may end up there anyway.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from reamer. Show reamer's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Bobomul, I was using the Cowboys largely as an example, since they're a team without a first. You can subsitute any other team, if you'd like. I just wanted to show how both history (last year's draft) and value (according to the chart) might work in our favor. But good points. :)

    I'm really torn right now about the draft. Good thing BB has a better handle on this than I do, because I'm looking at about half a dozen players at each pick, and just can't decide between them!

    All I know is that there's better value in drafting corners and defensive linemen than signing or retaining them in free agency. Deals for those positions are out of whack. So maybe we preempt the market by loading up in those areas? Just a thought.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Pick 23 is worth 760. 51 is worth 390. 101 is 96.
    Posted by reamer


    I dispute the common wisdom on those numbers.  Supposedly the #2 pick in the whole draft is worth 2700 points or so, but I would quickly trade off a #2 pick (yuck!) for three picks in the low #20s (yum!).  Three good players at low cost beats one great player sitting on Fort Knox.  Compare Vince Wilfork drafted at #21 to, say, Vernon Gholston at #6.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from pyegian. Show pyegian's posts

    Re: Draft 5

    Paul_K, I couldn't agree more.  I was looking at the chart the other day and I was appalled by the stupidity of the point system.  The #1 overall pick is worth slightly more than 5 (!!!!) late first round picks.

    There isn't a sane person on the planet would would trade 5 first round picks for an overpaid, unproven player like Stafford, or anyone else picked in that spot.  Ridiculous.
     

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