Re: Draft 5
posted at 4/13/2009 11:16 AM EDT
First, to all. I am not proposing BPA, because there is no such thing. The BPa when Ne picks could be Josh Freeman, but they won't take him.
The point is that there is some need, short or long term at most positions on this year's team, and asside maybe from OLB, there isn't a glaring need like last year at CB and ILB, where NE was essentailly forced to take players just to get bodies in there.
My contention is that with upcoming need at OL, DL, and TE, perhaps not as pressing as at OLB or other positions, it is still enough to take the better player if that is the case.
Simply, if NE thinks Barwin or whoever is there at #34 (I say 50/50 chance) then you take the player you won't be able to get there, and you don't cram a square peg into a round hole, just because he has better triable numbers or projects to be a beast in some other system.
I like the list. My grading, which was done some time ago, wasn't dissimilar. Although, I would certainly consider Wells, RM, DHB, Britton and a few others as first rounders. And wouldn't include Freeman or maybe Sanchez.
The way I usually compile those lists is just to imagine a very robust draft at every position, and then think of who would still make it. This season, I think this is the list of players that would recieve a first round grade almost every single season, with my obvious bias against Cushing holding him out. LOL.
Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech
Aaron Curry OLB Wake Forest
Jason Smith OT Baylor
Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
B.J. Raji DT Boston Coll.
Brian Orakpo DE Texas
Aaron Maybin DE Penn State
Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri
Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State
Andre Smith OT Alabama
Brandon Pettigrew TE Okla. State
Everette Brown DE Florida State
Chris Wells RB Ohio State
Tyson Jackson DE LSU
Rey Maualuga ILB USC
Michael Oher OT Mississippi
Peria Jerry DT Mississippi
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
Percy Harvin WR Florida
Eben Britton OT Arizona
Darius Butler CB UCONN
Vontae Davis CB Illinois
For instance, I have seen other QB drafts where Freeman and Sanchez would 2nd round QB's. I have seen RB drafts where Moreno would be a second rounder. However, I can't remember a draft in my 10 plus of watching this thing intently where Wells wouldn't be in the first, or where Pettigrew would get the boot. The last six are all "fringe" types who would most likely make it into the bottom.
I think what is really missing this season are the super blue-chippers that would round a draft out at the top. That would take the running total from 23 to something closer to 27-30, which is more typical. I think the depth through round two, though, more than makes up for the weak top end this season, where some low second players might have been borderline first rounders in another season, and much of the second round will be placed out decided on need on a team by team basis. I mean Unger, Mack, Meredith, Beatty could all be second, and a couple could go late, but in a weaker year they all might even sneak into the first, and players like Robiskie might make it up there as well.
If, for instance, we took the blue chips from last season and placed them in this draft, ALL of the players up there would get bounced quickly.
Add Jake Long, Chris Long, Ryan, McFadden, Ellis, Dorsey, add them to 2009 and all of a sudden players like Curry are where they should be, in the 7-12 range, with comparable talents like Rivers, Mayo, Willis from 2007, etc, etc. And great OL players like Smith and Monroe would be getting picked down the line as well. And Stafford would clearly be second banana, getting picked somewhere outside of five for sure.
And you would have a legit 29 deep first round. That said, some of the players that went in the second last season would be third rounders this season. We could start with the last 10 or so from 2008-- none of these players IMO would be in the second this season, except maybe Brohm, and only because the QB draft is anemic this season, which miraculously almost is actually worse than last season's.