End of Regular Season Power Ratings and Point Spread Forecasts

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    End of Regular Season Power Ratings and Point Spread Forecasts

     

    Some days are rougher for New England and some are easier.  Yesterday, Miami players looked like they all wanted to go inside and drink a nice hot glass of milk, with an optional jigger of vodka thrown in.  I assume that the good and bad for New England somewhat balances out.  What counts is the margin of victory excluding very late scores, so New England's shutout pushed them back on top in my end of regular season power ratings. 

    The Giants did really well for themselves this Sunday, earning a power rating almost worthy of a division champion.  Or possibly, Michael Vick has gone to the dogs, and Andy Reid went with him. 

    I tossed out the scores for two garbage games where teams didn't want to play their starters:  Atlanta and Baltimore/Cincy.

    1   ne   13.3   (last wk. 2)

    2   sea   13.1   (last wk. 1)

    3   den   12.2   (last wk. 3)

    4   sf   12.2   (last wk. 4)

    5   gb   11.3   (last wk. 5)

    6   atl   10.8   (last wk. 6)

    7   min   10.4   (last wk. 7)

    8   car   10.4   (last wk. 9)

    9   nyg   10.1   (last wk. 13)

    10   chi   9.7   (last wk. 8)

    11   was   9.5   (last wk. 10)

    12   cin   9.2   (last wk. 11)

    13   stl   8.9   (last wk. 16)

    14   bal   8.9   (last wk. 15)

    15   hou   8.9   (last wk. 12)

    16   no   8.2   (last wk. 14)

    17   mia   8.1   (last wk. 17)

    18   sd   7.7   (last wk. 19)

    19   dal   7.7   (last wk. 18)

    20   pit   7.6   (last wk. 20)

    21   tb   7.0   (last wk. 21)

    22   ind   6.9   (last wk. 22)

    23   az   6.1   (last wk. 25)

    24   det   6.1   (last wk. 23)

    25   buf   6.0   (last wk. 26)

    26   cle   5.8   (last wk. 24)

    27   nyj   4.8   (last wk. 27)

    28   ten   4.6   (last wk. 29)

    29   phi   4.1   (last wk. 28)

    30   oak   3.0   (last wk. 30)

    31   kc   1.9   (last wk. 32)

    32   jac   1.5   (last wk. 31)

    For wild card weekend I have no goodies versus the point spread whatsoever.  Yuck! It happens with only four games in one week.

    I anticipate that the point spreads for divisional week will shrink an average of 1 point from these numbers, because the victors from wild card weekend will improve their rankings and the losers will simply fall off the radar. 

    Visitor / home / my points / vegas / difference

    ind   bal    9.4   6.5   2.9

    cin   hou    1.9   4.0   -2.1

    min   gb    6.6   7.5   -0.9

    sea   was    -0.3   -2.5   2.2

    Looking ahead:

    hou   ne    13.4   Another team from the deep south.  They last played in pretty cool weather on December 10, against New England, and that didn't go well for them.  New England gets 3.5 points for the bye week.  I've heard that the Patriots tend to play a team better the second time they meet that team in a season.

    bal   ne    13.4     Baltimore won't care if it snows.  The New England wind might move the field goal posts a bit.

    ind   ne    17.8     A dome team, somewhat reliant on low winds and high temperatures. 

    ne   den    3.5     Cold!  That's not a problem.  Cardiovascular fitness is an issue in Denver, but New England has been a cardiovascular leader in the NFL with their quick snaps.

    cin   ne    8.4     This would be a possible championship game.

    cin   den    9.8     

    bal   den    14.4     

    ind   den    17.2      Sorry, but Indianapolis really squeaked by some bad teams all year.

     
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